On previous occasions in society when the labor market has changed due to new technology, there has been concern that people would lose their jobs. Over the past year, the development of various AI tools has emerged, which has affected people both in their personal lives and professional careers. By examining previous research in conjunction with interviewing individuals working as programmers, a depiction is presented of how the perception of AI looks within the specific professional role. Six semi-structured interviews were conducted, where individuals with different experiences and roles shared their perceptions of the development. The data from the interviews was analyzed and compared with the theory and previous research presented. The respondents' overall perception is positive, and they believed that AI would rather serve as an aid in their profession in the future. According to all respondents, the industry will undergo some changes, but primarily through streamlining and reducing manual work, rather than taking over their roles. Some of the respondents believed that AI could pose a threat to the programming profession, but it will take longer than ten years for that to happen.

Among better-educated employed workers, the fraction of full-time full-year (FTFY) workers is quite high and stable over time in the U.S. Among those with low education levels, however, this fraction is much lower and considerably more volatile. These observations suggest that the composition of unobserved skills is subject to sharp movements within low-educated employed workers, while the scale of these movements is potentially much smaller within high-educated ones. The standard college premium framework accounts for the observed shifts between education categories, but it cannot account for unobserved compositional changes within education categories. This thesis uses Heckman&#039 / s two-step estimator on repeated Current Population Survey cross sections to calculate a relative supply series that corrects for unobserved compositional shifts due to selection in and out of the FTFY status. We find that the well-documented deceleration in the growth rate of relative supply of college-equivalent workers after mid-1980s becomes even more pronounced once we correct for selectivity. This casts further doubt on the relevance of the plain skill-biased technical change hypothesis. We conclude that what happens to the within-group skill composition for low-educated groups is critical for fully understanding the trends in the relative supply of college workers in the United States.

Among better-educated employed workers, the fraction of full-time full-year (FTFY) workers is quite high and stable over time in the U.S. Among those with low education levels, however, this fraction is much lower and considerably more volatile. These observations suggest that the composition of unobserved skills is subject to sharp movements within low-educated employed workers, while the scale of these movements is potentially much smaller within high-educated ones. The standard college premium framework accounts for the observed shifts between education categories, but it cannot account for unobserved compositional changes within education categories. This thesis uses Heckman&#039 / s two-step estimator on repeated Current Population Survey cross sections to calculate a relative supply series that corrects for unobserved compositional shifts due to selection in and out of the FTFY status. We find that the well-documented deceleration in the growth rate of relative supply of college-equivalent workers after mid-1980s becomes even more pronounced once we correct for selectivity. This casts further doubt on the relevance of the plain skill-biased technical change hypothesis. We conclude that what happens to the within-group skill composition for low-educated groups is critical for fully understanding the trends in the relative supply of college workers in the United States.

Negli anni ’80, paesi in via di sviluppo (DCs) e paesi meno sviluppati (PMS) hanno subito cambiamenti strutturali, muovendosi da politiche di sostituzione di importazione a strategie di liberalizzazione. Questi paesi hanno assistito ad una crescita dinamica risultata dall’aumento della produttività dovuto alla maggiore esposizione delle industrie locali alla concorrenza, dall'aumento delle importazioni tecnologiche incarnate in capitale e in beni intermedi, e ad una maggiore diffusione di conoscenze e informazioni. Questo lavoro esamina come liberalizzazione commerciale ed aggiornamento tecnologico abbiano influito sull’occupazione in paesi DCs e PMS, e studia il fenomeno del cambiamento tecnologico skill biased. Si esaminano il settore manifatturiero turco tra il 1980-2001 e quello etiope tra il 1996-2004. Questo studio, basato sul System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS), implementa un quadro dinamico di due equazioni che raffigurano tendenze occupazionali a livello enterprise per lavoratori qualificati e non qualificati. I risultati confermano l'aspettativa teorica che DCs e LDC affrontano fenomeni di skill-biased technological change e incrementano il potere d’importazione di tecnologia, aumentando il divario d’occupazione tra lavoratori qualificati e non qualificati. Tuttavia, le cause specifiche di skill-bias e la portata del loro effetto possono variare in base a diverse infrastrutture istituzionali e capacità nazionali. / In the 1980's developing countries (DCs) and least developed countries (LDCs) underwent structural changes, moving from import substitution policies to liberalization strategies. These countries witnessed a dynamic growth effect that emerges from productivity growth due to increased exposure of local industries to competition, increased technological imports embodied in capital and intermediate goods, and to the transfer of knowledge. This work looks into the employment impact of trade liberalization and technological upgrading in DCs and LDCs, and studies the phenomenon of skill biased technological change in those countries. It takes the case of the Turkish manufacturing sector for the period 1980 - 2001, and the case of the Ethiopian manufacturing sector for the period 1996 - 2004. It deploys System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS) procedure to this effect, implementing a two-equation dynamic framework that depicts enterprise-level employment trends separately for skilled and unskilled workers. The results confirm the theoretical expectation that DCs and LDCs face the phenomena of skill-biased technological change and skill-enhancing technology import, both leading to increasing the employment gap between skilled and unskilled workers. However, the specific determinants of skill bias and the size of their effect can differ due to diverse institutional infrastructures and national capabilities.

In this paper, I investigate changes in the job market composition during Sweden’s “Golden Age” between the end of WWII and the 1974 oil crisis to examine to which degree this reflects an earlier job polarization than previously thought and validates that era’s anxieties about automation. Drawing from individual income and occupational data from a representative sample of the Swedish population from the year 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 and using the Historical International Standard of Classification of Occupations (HISCO) to make the data sets comparable, I demonstrate a general decrease in the share of blue-collar professionals and a general increase in the share of white-collar professionals, as well as a transition from unskilled to semi-skilled and skilled jobs. This indicates skill-biased technological change as the underlying force in the Swedish economy at the time, refuting Gustavsson’s (2017) previous findings regarding an early Swedish job polarization as well as general claims about deskilling. Lastly, using Acemoglu’s (2017) framework for enabling and replacing technologies, I argue the degree to which the pervasiveness of enabling technologies helped shape the Swedish Golden Age has been underappreciated, carrying lessons for our current era of generation-defining technologies and contemporary discussions surrounding automation.

[pt] A ascenção dos computadores e da banda-larga móvel e fixa são fatores importantes nas mudanças observadas no mercado de trabalho dos países ricos. Conforme o mundo tecnológico rapidamente evolui e cada vez mais rápida conectividade surge, há pouca evidência dos impactos das atuais tecnologias nos países em desenvolvimento. O Brasil, em particular, durante a última década, observou uma notória expansão do acesso à internet móvel. Nesta dissertação, explora-se o rápido avanço da cobertura de 4G para estimar os efeitos causais de internet móvel rápida para mercados locais de trabalho formal no Brasil. Como as tecnologias de 4G não são instaladas randomicamente, compromissos de abrangência, presentes nos contratos entre operadores nacionais da banda de 4G e a agência nacional de telecomunicações (ANATEL), servem como variável instrumental para presença de internet. O crescimento médio observado na amostra de número de operadores presente em cada mercado local é responsável por uma redução de 8 porcento nos contratos formais de trabalho (40 porcento da variação no período). Esta redução é causada por (i) redução de rotatividade e por (ii) efeitos de desemprego. Consistentes com a hipótese de rotineirização, o 4G reduz a demanda de trabalho para tarefas rotineiras e manuais. Com isso, há um aumento da proporção de trabalhadores com ensino superior e em ocupações que exigem maior qualificação. Os efeitos são concentrados no extremo da distribuição dos setores em termos de uso de tecnologias, mas não houve efeitos na composição das indústrias. Identifica-se evidência sugestiva de que banda-larga móvel está associada à polarização nos empregos. / [en] The rise of computerization and fixed and mobile broadband has been an important factor for changes in the labor market of rich countries. However, as the world of tech rapidly evolves and even faster mobile internet emerges, there is still little evidence about the impact of current mobile technologies in developing countries. Brazil, in particular, during the last decade, has seen a remarkable increase in mobile internet access. In this dissertation, I explore this rapid expansion of 4G coverage to estimate the causal effects of fast mobile internet in formal local labor markets in Brazil. Since 4G technologies are not rolled out randomly, provision commitments in contracts between 4G national operators and Brazilian regulatory agency of telecommunications (ANATEL) work as an instrumental variable to internet presence. The average increase of mobile operators observed in sample is responsible for a reduction of 8 percent in formal employment contracts (about 40 percent of the variation in period). This reduction is explained by (i) reduced turnover and by (ii) displacement effects. Consistent with the routinization hypothesis, 4G expansion shifts labor demand away from manual and routine tasks. This, in turn, has benefited more high-skilled workers, increasing the share of college-graduates in the labor force and the average skill level index of local labor markets. Effects are driven by the extremes of the distribution of technological intensity but there are no changes in the industry-composition of labor markets. I also show suggestive evidence that mobile broadband is associated with job polarization.

Income inequalities have become a matter of major concern following reports that the working class and lower middle class of developed economies have income levels that are falling behind. Few studies have been conducted on the regional level even though this perspective might better capture the development of income inequalities, since national averages might hide local differences. This study uses panel data for 286 Swedish municipalities in between 1991-2017 and fixed effect regressions, to examine if the theory of a skill-biased technological change could be used to explain resent developments. We find an labor income divergence for Swedish municipalities within the studied time period. The share of high skilled workers is found to be a good predictor of the growth in regional labor income inequalities, while an ageing population of the regions falling behind counteracts the growth of inequality, possibly leading to an underestimation of the size of regional labor income divergence. These results are in support of a skill-biased technological change at work and a job polarization transforming regional labor markets and regional societies. We conclude that adopting a regional perspective in the analysis and development of future economic growth policies is necessary to ensure long term economic growth, equality of opportunity and social cohesion.