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Soils are a critical resource for supporting ecosystems, agricultural systems, and human wellbeing. However, these same soils have been degraded by human activities throughout human history. Despite the rapid development of global models that include dynamic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and biogeochemical processes to assess climate and hydrological impacts, soil properties are often assumed to be spatially or temporally constant. These assumptions can affect the results of model projections, impact assessments and underestimate the human impact on Earth systems. This study reveals the physical impacts of human-altered soil conditions on the global water balance through a meta-analysis study and soil degradation modeling. We link major global LULCs to four hydrologic soil groups: sandy (sand, sandy loam, and loamy sand), loamy (loam, silty loam, and silt)), clayey soils (clay, sandy clay, clay loam, silty clay, and silty clay loam), and sandy clay loam) from 850 to 2015 AD, and identified loamy and clayey soils as the preferred soils for most human land uses. Humans selectively use those soils for intensive agriculture and pasture activities, while grazing occurs on sandier soils. To simulate the impact of human activities on soils, several soil change models were built for soil organic carbon (SOC) content, soil texture (sand, silt, and clay), and soil bulk density from meta-analyses of site observations. The models were applied globally based on the LULC and soil relations, global environmental and soil conditions, and LULC distributions. Pedotransfer functions were applied to estimate soil water-holding capacity using those soil properties, then a Thornthwaite-type water balance model was used to assess the impacts of soil degradation on the global water balance. Results show that under a high-intensity LULC scenario (conventional tillage on croplands and heavy grazing), SOC decreases by 363 Pg and water deficit increases 78 km3 globally. The impacts on SOC and deficit are reduced to 213 Pg and 51 km3, respectively, when reducing land-use intensity by substituting animal ploughing/no-till and light grazing for conventional tillage and heavy grazing. Impacts from other LULC types are identical for these two LULC scenarios. Development of this history between LULC and soil properties allows for improved simulation of human impacts on global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. The results of the water balance simulations demonstrate how different soils representations in models can significantly alter the estimates of global evapotranspiration, water deficit, and surplus. This study contributes to developing a better understanding of the processes by which human-induced soil degradation impacts climate/hydrological models and providing a mechanism to better assess the impacts of humans on the Earth system. The outcome will also complement numerous ongoing global studies that evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources and society. / Graduate / 2023-08-09

Carbon accreditation of forest development projects is essential for sequestering atmospheric CO2 under the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. The carbon sequestration potential of surface coal-mined lands is not well known. The purpose of this work was to determine how to measure carbon sequestration and estimate the additional amount that could be sequestered using different reforestation methods compared to the common practice of establishing grasslands. I developed a thermal oxidation technique for differentiating sequestered soil carbon from inorganic and fossilized carbon found at high levels in mine soils along with a geospatial and statistical protocol for carbon monitoring and accounting. I used existing tree, litter, and soil carbon data for 14 mined and 8 adjacent, non-mined forests in the Midwestern and Eastern coal regions to determine, and model sequestered carbon across the spectrum of site index and stand age in pine, mixed, and hardwood forest stands. Finally, I developed the framework of a decision support system consisting of the first iteration of a dynamic model to predict carbon sequestration for a 60-year period for three forest types (white pine, hybrid poplar, and native hardwoods) at three levels of management intensity: low (weed control), medium (weed control and tillage) and high (weed control, tillage, and fertilization). On average, the highest amount of ecosystem carbon on mined land was sequestered by pine stands (148 Mg ha-1), followed by hardwood (130 Mg ha-1) and mixed stands (118 Mg ha-1). Non-mined hardwood stands contained 210 Mg C ha-1, which was about 62% higher than the average of all mined stands. After 60 years, the net carbon in ecosystem components, wood products, and landfills ranged from 20 to 235 Mg ha-1 among all scenarios. The highest net amount of carbon was estimated under mixed hardwood vegetation established by the highest intensity treatment. Under this scenario, a surface-mined land of average site quality would sequester net carbon stock at 235 Mg C ha-1, at a rate of 3.9 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, which was 100% greater than a grassland scenario. Reforestation is a logical choice for mined land reclamation if carbon sequestration is a management objective. / Ph. D.

Magistrantūros studijų baigiamajame darbe pateikiami dirvožemio organinės anglies, humuso, C/N santykio, mikroorganizmų biomasės anglies, dirvožemio kvėpavimo tyrimų duomenys, įvertinant skirtingus žemės dirbimo būdus skirtingais dirvožemio gylio sluoksniais. Lyginami 2009 ir 2013 metų atliktų tyrimų duomenys. Darbo objektas – giliau karbonatingas giliau glėjiškas rudžemis, kuriame 2009 ir 2013 metais buvo žirnių (Pisum sativum L.) pasėlis, kur tirta skirtingo žemės dirbimo įtaka dirvožemio organinės anglies ir mikroorganizmų biomasės anglies sankaupoms. Darbo metodai: eksperimentai įrengti keturiais pakartojimais. Pradinių laukelių plotas – 126 m2, apskaitinių – 84 m2. Variantai pakartojimų blokuose išdėstyti rendomizuotai. Dirvožemio kvėpavimas ir mikroorganizmų biomasės sankaupos įvertintos 2009 ir 2013 m. birželio mėn. žirnių pasėliuose. Dirvožemio organinės anglies ir mikroorganizmų biomasės sankaupoms vertinti viršutinio ariamojo Ap (0-10 cm) horizonto jungtiniai ėminiai 3 pakartojimais buvo surinkti su 2-4 cm skersmens dirvožemio grąžtu. Eksperimento variantai: tradicinis žemės dirbimas, supaprastintas žemės dirbimas, tiesioginė sėja, ekologinė žemdirbystės sistema, kur taikytas tradicinis žemės dirbimas. Darbo rezultatai. Skirtingi žemės dirbimo būdai ir ekologinės žemdirbystės sistema, taikant tradicinį žemės dirbimo būdą, turėjo įtakos dirvožemio organinės anglies, humuso, C/N santykio, kvėpavimo ir mikroorganizmų biomasės anglies sankaupoms. Didžiausios org. C... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The master work presents the results on soil organic carbon, humus, C/N ration, microbial biomass carbon, soil respiration in soil with different soil tillage systems in two soil depths (0-10; 10-20 cm). Results were obtained in 2009 and 2013 and presented. Object of the research – The Endocalcari-Endohypogleyic Cambisol, where in 2009 and 2013 pea crops (Pisum sativum L.) have been growing. Soil tillage impact on soil organic carbon and microbial biomass carbon pools has been investigated. Method of the research – experiments was installed in four replications. Research area – 126 m2, research plot – 84 m2. Variants in blocks were rendomized. Soil respiration and microbial biomass pools were investigated in 2009 and 2013 in June in pea crops. Experiment variants were as followed: conventional tillage, reduced tillage, no tillage and ecological soil management with conventional tillage. Research results. Different soil tillage systems and ecological soil management system with conventional tillage had impact on soil organic carbon, humus, C/N ration, soil respiration and microbial biomass carbon pools. The highest org. C, humus, microbial biomass carbon concentrations and soil respiration intensity have been found in ecological soil management system. The fertilization with siderate crop may effect it mainly. The lower soil tillage intensity influenced the increase in org. C, humus concentration in 0-10 cm soil depth. In other hand, also along with lower tillage intensity... [to full text]

Tidal freshwater marshes (TFMs) are unique ecosystems that bridge the gap between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and are important in the sequestration of soil organic carbon. With the ever changing global climate, TFMs are left vulnerable to downstream effects of rising sea level and salt water intrusion due to increases in flooding by saline waters. These changes often act over large spatial and temporal scales resulting in significant impacts to local and regional environments. This multidisciplinary study assessed the amount and lability of desorbed organic carbon in tidal freshwater marsh soils from the Waccamaw River Marsh, South Carolina and Sweet Hall, a marsh on the Pamunkey River, Virginia. Soils from each marsh were extracted at 0-35 practical salinity units (psu) and the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, and carbon lability of the leachates were measured. At increasing levels of salinity, soil desorption amounts were higher in the Waccamaw River marsh interior and similar between the Waccamaw River creekbank and Sweet Hall levee. A larger fraction of desorbed DOC was consumed in the more organic soils from the Waccamaw River marsh in comparison to the more mineral soil from Sweet Hall Marsh. Finally, the rate of decay of the desorbed carbon was highest in the Sweet Hall levee soils, indicating more labile desorbed carbon, while the Waccamaw River Marsh soils had lower decay rates indicating less labile desorbed carbon. By understanding how salt water intrusion affects desorption and lability of soil organic carbon, in coastal marshes, we may be able to better understand how increasing sea levels may affect carbon storage in coastal ecosystems.

Sugarcane cropping is an important component of the Brazil´s economy. As the main feedstock used to produce ethanol, the area occupied with this crop has meaningfully increased in the last years and continues to expand in order to attend to the national and international demand of this biofuel. Despite that it has been demonstrated that land-use transition into sugarcane can negatively impact the soil carbon (C) dynamics, little is known about the effect of those land use changes (LUC) processes on the distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) within particle-size classes, and how management practices in sugarcane can contribute to the C restoration. In this sense the main objective of this study was to evaluate through a modelling application the SOC dynamics in the sugarcane crop in response to LUC and different management scenarios. For a better understanding of LUC impact on C content in both particulate organic matter and mineral-associated fraction, we performed physical soil C fractionation in 34 study areas involving the three major land-use systems affected by sugarcane expansion. Also, biometric measurements were executed in sugarcane plant and ratoon crop in order to use those data in the model parameterization as well as to recalculate the payback time of the C debt through C conversion ratio reported in the literature. Finally, we parameterized and validate the CENTURY ecosystem model for sugarcane, pastures and annual cropland by using a data-set previously collected by the Laboratório de Biogeoquímica Ambiental (CENA-USP); then different scenarios of sugarcane management were simulated: i) SC1 - Green harvesting; ii) SC2 - Green harvesting plus organic amendments and iii) Green harvesting + low N inputs. Our results showed that the C content depletion for conversion from native vegetation and pastures to sugarcane is caused by C losses in the labile fraction (37%) as wells as in the stabilized pool associated to the mineral fraction (30%). Above and belowground biomass quantification indicated a total sugarcane carbon inputs ranging from 29.6 Mg C ha-1 to 30.6 Mg C ha-1. Considering a C retention rate of 13% we estimated net carbon changes of 0.58 to 0.6 Mg C ha-1 year-1, which contribute to reduce the payback times for sugarcane biofuel carbon debts in 3.3 and 1.2 years for Cerrado wooded and pasture conversions into sugarcane respectively. The modelling study supported the Century model as a tool to access the SOC dynamics following land-use conversion and different soil management in in sugarcane. Long-term simulations suggested that changes in the sugarcane harvest from burning to green harvesting increase the soil C stock in an average of 0.21 Mg ha-1 year-1; however the potential of C accumulation is still higher when organic amendments as vinasse and filter cake are add to the soil, with mean values varying between 0.34 and 0.37 Mg ha-1 year-1 in SC2 and SC1 respectively. By analyzing the SOC dynamic at each scenario simulated, we estimated a time span of 17 and 24 years for soil C restoration in clay and sandy soils under pastures with priority suitability (SC3). The number of years was projected to be higher in clay soils with regular suitability (40 years). / A cultura da cana-de-açúcar é uma comodity importante para a economia no Brasil. Como a principal matéria prima para a produção de etanol, a área plantada com esta cultura tem incrementado significativamente nos últimos anos e a tendência é de continuar se expandindo para atender a demanda nacional e internacional deste biocombustível. Embora tenha sido demostrado que a mudança de uso da terra (MUT) para cana-de-açúcar pode afetar negativamente a dinâmica do carbono (C) no solo, há pouca informação disponível acerca do impacto dessa MUT na distribuição do C nas frações da matéria orgânica do solo, e como as praticas de manejo da cana-de-açúcar podem contribuir para o acumulo de C no solo. Nesse contexto o principal objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar, através da modelagem matemática, a dinâmica do carbono orgânico do solo (COS) na cultura da cana-de-açúcar em resposta a mudança de uso da terra e diferentes cenários de manejo agrícola. Fracionamento físico para separar o C associado à matéria orgânica partícula (POM) do C ligado à fração mineral do solo (<53 um) foi realizado em amostras de solo de 34 áreas de estudo envolvendo os três principais sistemas de uso da terra afetados pela expansão da cana-de-açúcar. Adicionalmente, foram realizadas avaliações biométricas da cana-de-açúcar (cana planta e soca) que objetivaram a parametrização do modelo matemático assim como recalcular o tempo de reposição do debito de C gerado. Finalmente, o modelo CENTURY foi parametrizado e devidamente validado, para posteriormente proceder à simulação de diferentes cenários futuros de manejo da cana de açúcar: i) SC1 - Colheita de cana crua (sem queima); ii) SC2 - Colheita de cana crua e adição de adubos orgânicos (vinhaça e torta de filtro); iii) Colheita de cana crua e redução da adubação nitrogenada. Os resultados indicaram que a redução do conteúdo de C devido à conversão de vegetação nativa e pastagem para cana-de-açúcar foi causada pela perda de C tanto na fração lábil (37%) quanto na fração mais estável associada a fração mineral do solo (30%). A quantificação da biomassa aérea e radicular indicou entradas de C variando de 29,6 Mg C ha-1 a 30,6 Mg C ha-1, os quais resultariam em uma taxa de acumulo liquido de 0,58 a 0,6 Mg C ha-1 ano-1, que quando considerado contribui a redução do \"payback time\" do debito de C do etanol causado pela conversão de Cerrado e pastagem em 3,3 e 2 anos respectivamente. Os resultados obtidos no estudo de modelagem matemática suportaram o uso do modelo CENTURY como uma ferramenta para avaliar a influencia da MUT e das práticas de manejo na dinâmica do COS. As simulações em longo prazo sugeriram que a supressão da queima na colheita incrementa o estoque de C em 0,21 Mg ha-1 ano-1. No entanto o potencial de acúmulo de C é ainda maior quando adubação orgânica é realizada, com valores entre 0,34 e 0,37 Mg ha-1 ano-1 respectivamente. A análise da dinâmica do COS em cada cenário de manejo simulado permitiu estimar o tempo médio de recuperação do C do solo perdido pela MUT em áreas de pastagens. Os resultados indicaram um período de 17 anos para condições de cultivo sob solos argilosos e 24 anos para solos arenosos (SC3) em áreas de alta aptidão para expansão. O modelo projetou um maior número de anos em solo argiloso sob áreas de pastagem com aptidão média (40 anos).

Le sol représente un puits de carbone important, dont les entrées et les sorties sont gouvernées par de nombreux facteurs biotiques et abiotiques. Nous nous intéressons à deux facteurs biotiques essentiels : la qualité de la litière, principale source des MOS; et les vers de terre, ingénieurs clés des sols tempérés. Nous étudions le devenir de parties racinaires et aériennes, marquées au carbone 13, dans le sol et des turricules de Lumbricus terrestris, au cours d'une expérimentation en mésocosmes d'une année. Nous utilisons une approche pluridisciplinaire à différentes échelles spatio-temporelles pour quantifier, localiser et caractériser le carbone organique incorporé dans le sol et les turricules, pendant les 54 semaines d'expérimentation. La composition chimique des parties racinaires et aériennes a un impact significatif sur le devenir du carbone dans le sol et semble influencer la palatabilité de la litière pour les vers de terre. Après une année d'expérience, la contribution des racines, par rapport aux parties aériennes est plus importante dans le sol et les turricules. Les interactions physiques semblent également jouer un rôle important dans la formation et l'évolution des turricules. Les vers de terre minimisent l'effet contrasté des parties racinaires et aériennes sur le carbone du sol et des turricules. Les invertébrés du sol doivent être pris en compte lors de l'étude des processus d'incorporation, de décomposition et de stabilisation du carbone dans le sol. Les microorganismes jouent un rôle essentiel dans la décomposition de la litière et semblent contribuer au carbone stable du sol, et ce particulièrement dans les turricules. / Soil represents an important carbon sink, which inputs and outputs are governed by numerous biotic and abiotic factors. We focused on two essential biotic factors: litter inputs, the main source of SOM; and earthworms, key soil engineers in temperate regions. We investigated the fate of 13C-labelled Ryegrass root and shoot litter, in soil and epi-anecic earthworm casts (Lumbricus terrestris), based on a one year mesocosm experiment. Soil samples were collected at two depths, as well as surface casts, regularly during the 54 weeks of experiment. SOM complexity and heterogeneous composition was considered, using a multidisciplinary approach at different spatio-temporal scales to quantify, localize and characterize the organic carbon incorporated in soil and earthworm casts. The chemical composition of roots and shoots had a significant impact on the fate of carbon in soil, with an increased contribution from root-derived carbon in soil and casts after one year. The chemical composition tended to influence the litter palatability for earthworms. As organo-mineral associations tended to increase during drying and ageing of casts, physical interactions might have also played an important role in cast formation and evolution. Earthworms tended to minimize the diverging fate of root and shoot residues on both soil and cast carbon, after the year of experiment. Thus, while studying soil carbon incorporation, decomposition and stabilization, the role of soil invertebrates should be particularly considered. We also observed the crucial role of microorganisms in decomposing litter and their potentially high participation to stable carbon pool in soil and particularly in casts.

Le sol est un compartiment majeur de stockage du carbone (C) organique de l’écosystème terrestre. Il joue un rôle important dans la régulation du climat. Toute variation des flux de carbone entre l’atmosphère et l’écosystème terrestre pourrait avoir un impact important sur l’augmentation de CO2 dans l’atmosphère, mais aussi sur la diminution des teneurs en matière organique du sol et donc sur la fertilité des sols. Au Nord Cameroun, les sols sont exposés à de longues périodes sèches (5 à 6 mois par an) qui alternent avec une saison humide. La période de transition entre ces deux saisons, peut durer de mi-avril à fin juin et est caractérisée par des pluies très irrégulières. Ces cycles d’humectation-dessiccation pourraient selon la littérature accentuer la minéralisation du carbone organique du sol et le cycle des éléments nutritifs. L’objectif de cette étude est de quantifier l’impact des cycles humectation-dessiccation sur la minéralisation du carbone dans un contexte soudano-sahélien. Pour faire des mesures représentatives sur le terrain, il est nécessaire d’étudier la variation sur 24 heures de la respiration du sol après humectation suite à une période sèche. Cette mise au point méthodologique a montré que la respiration du sol présente une courbe quadratique au cours de la journée, devenant presque linéaire au cours de la nuit. La température et l’humidité du sol ont permis d’expliquer au moins 73% des variations sur 24 heures. Ces observations ont été utilisées pour proposer une méthode pour estimer la respiration moyenne diurne et nocturne après humectation des sols. La méthode proposée dans cette étude a l’avantage d’être basée sur un nombre réduit de mesures et est par conséquent plus facile à mettre en œuvre pour suivre la respiration du sol sur 24 heures après les premières pluies. Une première étude expérimentale de terrain a permis de montrer que la ré-humectation des sols et le mode de gestion des pailles ont augmenté la minéralisation du carbone de ces sols. En revanche, la fréquence des cycles humectation-dessiccation des sols sur une période de 50 jours n’a pas augmenté la minéralisation cumulée du carbone des sols. Au Nord Cameroun, la minéralisation rapide des pailles rend difficile l’augmentation des stocks de carbone du sol par conservation des pailles des cultures précédentes à la surface du sol. Dans une seconde expérimentation de laboratoire, en conditions contrôlées, les cycles humectation-dessiccation n’ont pas augmenté la minéralisation du carbone organique du sol et de l’azote (N) par rapport aux sols maintenus humides. Cependant, les émissions de CO2 ont augmenté avec l’addition de paille enrichie en carbone-13. Cette addition de la paille marquée a augmenté la minéralisation de la matière organique du sol (priming effect). La minéralisation de la paille a diminué avec les cycles humectation-dessiccation et la quantité de paille restante était de 102 µg Cg-1 sol sur les sols ré-humectés contre 48 µg Cg-1 sol sur les sols maintenus humides. L’absence de cette réponse de la minéralisation du carbone et d’azote du sol aux cycles humectation-dessiccation pourrait être liée à une baisse de l’activité microbienne durant les périodes de dessèchement et l’absence d’une augmentation soutenue des taux de minéralisation du carbone avec les cycles ultérieurs d’humectation-dessiccation. / Soil as a major storage component for terrestrial ecosystem’s organic carbon plays an important role in regulating climate and agricultural production. Any variation of carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial ecosystem can have a significant impact on the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere but also the decrease in soil organic matter and thus accelarate soil fertility degradation. In northern Cameroon, the transition period between long dry periods with a wet season is characterized by very irregular rainfall that can last several weeks. These wetting-drying cycles can accentuate the mineralization of soil organic carbon and nutrient cycling. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of wet-dry cycles on carbon mineralization in a sudano-sahelian context. From methodological stand field measurements require to study the soil respiration variation over 24 hours after a wet period. This methodological test has shown that soil respiration has a quadratic curve during the day, becoming almost linear during the night. The temperature and soil moisture have explained together the variation over 24 hours (at least 73% ; p< 0.001). These observations have been used to propose a method for estimating the mean daytime and nighttime soil respiration after wetting the soil. Indeed the method proposed in this study has the advantage of being based on a small number of measurements and is, therefore, easier to implement to monitor 24-h soil respiration after the first rains following a long dry period. A first experiment has shown that the wetting of the soil and mulching increased soil carbon mineralization. However, wetting-drying cycles on soil did not increase the cumulative mineralization of soil carbon more than keeping the soil continuously moist. Indeed, in northern Cameroon, the rapid mineralization of crop residues makes it difficult to increase soil carbon stocks by mulching. In a second laboratory experiment, the wetting-drying cycles did not increase organic carbon and nitrogen mineralization from soils added with straw. However, carbon dioxide emissions increased on straw amended soils compared to soils without straw. This addition of the labeled straw increased mineralization of soil organic matter (priming effect). The mineralization of the straw also decreased with the wetting-drying cycles, thus the amount of straw remaining on soils was 102 µg C g-1 soil on re-wetted soils compared to 48 µg C g-1 soil for those with constant moisture. The lack of response for C and N mineralization during wetting-drying cycles may be linked to a decrease of microbial activity during dry periods and the lack of a steady increase in the carbon mineralization rate with subsequent wetting-drying cycles.

Sugarcane cropping is an important component of the Brazil´s economy. As the main feedstock used to produce ethanol, the area occupied with this crop has meaningfully increased in the last years and continues to expand in order to attend to the national and international demand of this biofuel. Despite that it has been demonstrated that land-use transition into sugarcane can negatively impact the soil carbon (C) dynamics, little is known about the effect of those land use changes (LUC) processes on the distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) within particle-size classes, and how management practices in sugarcane can contribute to the C restoration. In this sense the main objective of this study was to evaluate through a modelling application the SOC dynamics in the sugarcane crop in response to LUC and different management scenarios. For a better understanding of LUC impact on C content in both particulate organic matter and mineral-associated fraction, we performed physical soil C fractionation in 34 study areas involving the three major land-use systems affected by sugarcane expansion. Also, biometric measurements were executed in sugarcane plant and ratoon crop in order to use those data in the model parameterization as well as to recalculate the payback time of the C debt through C conversion ratio reported in the literature. Finally, we parameterized and validate the CENTURY ecosystem model for sugarcane, pastures and annual cropland by using a data-set previously collected by the Laboratório de Biogeoquímica Ambiental (CENA-USP); then different scenarios of sugarcane management were simulated: i) SC1 - Green harvesting; ii) SC2 - Green harvesting plus organic amendments and iii) Green harvesting + low N inputs. Our results showed that the C content depletion for conversion from native vegetation and pastures to sugarcane is caused by C losses in the labile fraction (37%) as wells as in the stabilized pool associated to the mineral fraction (30%). Above and belowground biomass quantification indicated a total sugarcane carbon inputs ranging from 29.6 Mg C ha-1 to 30.6 Mg C ha-1. Considering a C retention rate of 13% we estimated net carbon changes of 0.58 to 0.6 Mg C ha-1 year-1, which contribute to reduce the payback times for sugarcane biofuel carbon debts in 3.3 and 1.2 years for Cerrado wooded and pasture conversions into sugarcane respectively. The modelling study supported the Century model as a tool to access the SOC dynamics following land-use conversion and different soil management in in sugarcane. Long-term simulations suggested that changes in the sugarcane harvest from burning to green harvesting increase the soil C stock in an average of 0.21 Mg ha-1 year-1; however the potential of C accumulation is still higher when organic amendments as vinasse and filter cake are add to the soil, with mean values varying between 0.34 and 0.37 Mg ha-1 year-1 in SC2 and SC1 respectively. By analyzing the SOC dynamic at each scenario simulated, we estimated a time span of 17 and 24 years for soil C restoration in clay and sandy soils under pastures with priority suitability (SC3). The number of years was projected to be higher in clay soils with regular suitability (40 years). / A cultura da cana-de-açúcar é uma comodity importante para a economia no Brasil. Como a principal matéria prima para a produção de etanol, a área plantada com esta cultura tem incrementado significativamente nos últimos anos e a tendência é de continuar se expandindo para atender a demanda nacional e internacional deste biocombustível. Embora tenha sido demostrado que a mudança de uso da terra (MUT) para cana-de-açúcar pode afetar negativamente a dinâmica do carbono (C) no solo, há pouca informação disponível acerca do impacto dessa MUT na distribuição do C nas frações da matéria orgânica do solo, e como as praticas de manejo da cana-de-açúcar podem contribuir para o acumulo de C no solo. Nesse contexto o principal objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar, através da modelagem matemática, a dinâmica do carbono orgânico do solo (COS) na cultura da cana-de-açúcar em resposta a mudança de uso da terra e diferentes cenários de manejo agrícola. Fracionamento físico para separar o C associado à matéria orgânica partícula (POM) do C ligado à fração mineral do solo (<53 um) foi realizado em amostras de solo de 34 áreas de estudo envolvendo os três principais sistemas de uso da terra afetados pela expansão da cana-de-açúcar. Adicionalmente, foram realizadas avaliações biométricas da cana-de-açúcar (cana planta e soca) que objetivaram a parametrização do modelo matemático assim como recalcular o tempo de reposição do debito de C gerado. Finalmente, o modelo CENTURY foi parametrizado e devidamente validado, para posteriormente proceder à simulação de diferentes cenários futuros de manejo da cana de açúcar: i) SC1 - Colheita de cana crua (sem queima); ii) SC2 - Colheita de cana crua e adição de adubos orgânicos (vinhaça e torta de filtro); iii) Colheita de cana crua e redução da adubação nitrogenada. Os resultados indicaram que a redução do conteúdo de C devido à conversão de vegetação nativa e pastagem para cana-de-açúcar foi causada pela perda de C tanto na fração lábil (37%) quanto na fração mais estável associada a fração mineral do solo (30%). A quantificação da biomassa aérea e radicular indicou entradas de C variando de 29,6 Mg C ha-1 a 30,6 Mg C ha-1, os quais resultariam em uma taxa de acumulo liquido de 0,58 a 0,6 Mg C ha-1 ano-1, que quando considerado contribui a redução do \"payback time\" do debito de C do etanol causado pela conversão de Cerrado e pastagem em 3,3 e 2 anos respectivamente. Os resultados obtidos no estudo de modelagem matemática suportaram o uso do modelo CENTURY como uma ferramenta para avaliar a influencia da MUT e das práticas de manejo na dinâmica do COS. As simulações em longo prazo sugeriram que a supressão da queima na colheita incrementa o estoque de C em 0,21 Mg ha-1 ano-1. No entanto o potencial de acúmulo de C é ainda maior quando adubação orgânica é realizada, com valores entre 0,34 e 0,37 Mg ha-1 ano-1 respectivamente. A análise da dinâmica do COS em cada cenário de manejo simulado permitiu estimar o tempo médio de recuperação do C do solo perdido pela MUT em áreas de pastagens. Os resultados indicaram um período de 17 anos para condições de cultivo sob solos argilosos e 24 anos para solos arenosos (SC3) em áreas de alta aptidão para expansão. O modelo projetou um maior número de anos em solo argiloso sob áreas de pastagem com aptidão média (40 anos).