This work aims to assess the development of competition in the electricity industry of England and Wales, emphasising one of the key elements of the restructured industry, the pool - a centralised day ahead electricity spot market. The pool's structure is examined, along with the relationship that the pool has with the market for electricity forward contracts. However, the key to this work is the relationship between the major electricity generators and the industry's regulator. This is introduced through two theoretical models, and undertaken through a series of econometric models using pool prices, forward prices, electricity demand, and the sharep rices of the major generators: National Power and Powergen. The work tests the hypotheses put forward by Green( 1992) and Helm & Powell (1992) of an inverse relationship between the volume of output that a generator sells forward through contracts and the general level of pool prices. The break-up of the first and second sets of forward contracts - which expired in 1991 and 1993 - and their impact on pool prices are assessed By using the market model, this work examines the impact of a series of both regulatory and nonregulatory events on the share returns of National Power and Powergen. Given the existence of spot and forward markets for electricity, one would expect a relationship between the prices in these markets The relationship is examined for England and Wales by a synthetic data set that approximates the prices at which the contracts were sold. The relationship is then examined using actual and forecast electricity prices for California, this latter analysis forming part of an overview of electricity deregulation in America. Ultimately, this research hopes to add to the growing amount of material on energy privatisation - a topic that continues to promote interest and controversy in academic and industrial circles.

In this thesis, the decision-making problem of a GenCo¡¦s bids is formulated and solved by a fuzzy approach to strategic games. It is assumed that only supply-side bidding is considered in the spot market and a player hopes to determine his bids to maximize his own expected payoffs. By means of fuzzy membership functions and operations, a multi-criteria method is used to analyze the player¡¦s choices. Decision maker can decide what kind of strategy combination is optimal by using weight vector to represent his subjective attitude and moral features about the structure of multi-objectives. From this process, a decision can be made more easily, and the results are also close to reality which is not easily modeled by probabilistic method in the classical game theory. Numerical examples with a game of two GenCo¡¦s and a price-elastic demand are offered to illustrate the salient features of the proposed approach.

The Turkish Electricity System has gone through a liberalization process. This study aims to analyze the possible outcomes of this process by using a simulation framework. First, we look at the basics of new market design and focus on international evidence. Second, the theoretical and empirical literature about the liberalization of the electricity sector is reviewed. Then, the structure of our model, Turkish Electricity System Simulation Model (TESS), is summarized. In this model, it is assumed that a spot market is formed and all the agents in the sector operate in this market. Using this model, the effects of various factors, like industry structure, consumer participation and regulation, upon the performance of the spot market are analyzed. Moreover, in simulation case studies, uniform and a non-uniform pricing mechanisms are compared.

The popularity of Amazon's EC2 cloud platform has increased in commercial and scientific high-performance computing (HPC) applications domain in recent years. However, many HPC users consider dedicated high-performance clusters, typically found in large compute centers such as those in national laboratories, to be far superior to EC2 because of significant communication overhead of the latter. We find this view to be quite narrow and the proper metrics for comparing high-performance clusters to EC2 is turnaround time and cost. In this work, we first compare the HPC-grade EC2 cluster to top-of-the-line HPC clusters based on turnaround time and total cost of execution. When measuring turnaround time, we include expected queue wait time on HPC clusters. Our results show that although as expected, standard HPC clusters are superior in raw performance, they suffer from potentially significant queue wait times. We show that EC2 clusters may produce better turnaround times due to typically lower wait queue times. To estimate cost, we developed a pricing model---relative to EC2's node-hour prices---to set node-hour prices for (currently free) HPC clusters. We observe that the cost-effectiveness of running an application on a cluster depends on raw performance and application scalability. However, despite the potentially lower queue wait and turnaround times, the primary barrier to using clouds for many HPC users is the cost. Amazon EC2 provides a fixed-cost option (called on-demand) and a variable-cost, auction-based option (called the spot market). The spot market trades lower cost for potential interruptions that necessitate checkpointing; if the market price exceeds the bid price, a node is taken away from the user without warning. We explore techniques to maximize performance per dollar given a time constraint within which an application must complete. Specifically, we design and implement multiple techniques to reduce expected cost by exploiting redundancy in the EC2 spot market. We then design an adaptive algorithm that selects a scheduling algorithm and determines the bid price. We show that our adaptive algorithm executes programs up to 7x cheaper than using the on-demand market and up to 44% cheaper than the best non-redundant, spot-market algorithm. Finally, we extend our adaptive algorithm to exploit several opportunities for cost-savings on the EC2 spot market. First, we incorporate application scalability characteristics into our adaptive policy. We show that the adaptive algorithm informed with scalability characteristics of applications achieves up to 56% cost-savings compared to the expected cost for the base adaptive algorithm run at a fixed, user-defined scale. Second, we demonstrate potential for obtaining considerable free computation time on the spot market enabled by its hour-boundary pricing model.

Over the past several decades, many techniques and approaches have been proposed and implemented for load and price forecasting. The objective of all of these methods was load and price forecasting with minimal error. However, researchers face several challenges in achieving this goal. For price forecasting, the main challenge is to forecast electricity prices accurately in a deregulated electric power market with volatile aspects. Decentralized or deregulated markets are very volatile systems. Hence, pattern following and accurate forecasting of electricity prices are difficult tasks using ordinary methods. In this thesis, a novel approach is introduced and implemented to overcome the challenges inherent in accurate price forecasting. This novel approach involves innovations in forecasting to improve the spot power price forecasting accuracy in a competitive market. To investigate the applicability and effectiveness of this technique, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), two well-known forecasting techniques, are developed.

In this dissertation, we study several stochastic capacity expansion models in the presence of permanent, spot market, and contract capacity for acquisition. Using a scenario tree approach to handle the data uncertainty of the problems, we develop multi-stage stochastic integer programming formulations for these models. First, we study multi-period single resource stochastic capacity expansion problems, where different sources of capacity are available to the decision maker. We develop efficient algorithms that can solve these models to optimality in polynomial time. Second, we study multi-period stochastic network capacity expansion problems with different sources for capacity. The proposed models are NP-hard multi-stage stochastic integer programs and we develop an efficient, asymptotically convergent approximation algorithm to solve them. Third, we consider some decomposition algorithms to solve the proposed multi-stage stochastic network capacity expansion problem. We propose an enhanced Benders' decomposition algorithm to solve the problem, and a Benders' decomposition-based heuristic algorithm to find tight bounds for it. Finally, we extend the stochastic network capacity expansion model by imposing budget restriction on permanent capacity acquisition cost. We design a Lagrangian relaxation algorithm to solve the model, including heuristic methods to find tight upper bounds for it. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

O objetivo da presente dissertação consiste em verificar como se dá a transmissão de preços entre os mercados físico ao nível de produtor no Brasil e futuro para as commodities milho e soja, e, entre estes dois complexos produtivos. Para isso, utilizou-se o seguinte método de pesquisa: teste de raiz unitária, teste de co-integração, teste de causalidade de Granger, estimação da elasticidade de transmissão de preços e mecanismo de correção de erro. Os resultados indicam que há integração e consequentemente transmissão de preços entre os seguintes pares de variáveis (mercados), como dependentes e explicativas respectivamente: físico soja / futuro soja, físico milho / futuro milho, físico soja / futuro milho. O fato de existir co-integração entre tais pares de variáveis é condição suficiente para se afirmar a existência de uma relação linear de equilíbrio a longo prazo para o qual o sistema converge, validando os pressupostos teóricos da Lei do Preço Único e confirmando a integração. Porém, a estimação do parâmetro que corresponde ao coeficiente que mede a elasticidade de transmissão de preço não apresentou significância estatística para a relação físico milho / futuro milho. No caso da relação contemporânea entre físico soja / futuro soja a cada 1 dólar por saco de 60Kg de variação no mercado futuro de soja, 70% desta variação é transmitida ao mercado físico de soja. Já para a relação contemporânea entre físico soja / futuro milho para cada 1 dólar por saco de 60Kg de variação no mercado futuro de milho, 50% desta variação é transmitida ao mercado físico de soja. / The goal of the present dissertation is to verify how prices transmission take place between the spot market at producer level in Brazil and the future market for the commodities corn and soybeans, and, between these two productive complexes. For that, we used the following research method: unit-root test, co-integration test, Ganger causality test, estimation of elasticity in prices transmission and the mechanism of error correction. The results suggest that there is integration and therefore prices transmission between the following pairs of variables (markets), as dependent and explicative respectively: spot soybeans / future soybeans, spot corn / future corn, spot soybeans / future corn. The fact of existing cointegration between such pairs of variables is a sufficient condition to affirm the existence of a linear relation of equilibrium for long term for which the system converges, validating the theoretical assumed of the Law of One Price and confirming the integration. Nevertheless, the estimation of a parameter that corresponds to the coefficient that measures the elasticity of price transmission did not present statistical significance for the relation spot corn / future corn. In the contemporary relation case between spot soybeans / future soybeans, for each 1 dollar per bag of 60Kg of variation in the soybeans future market, 70% of this variation is transmitted to the spot soybeans market. Concerning the contemporary relation between spot soybeans / future corn, for each 1 dollar per bag of 60kg of variation in the corn future market, 50% of this variation is transmitted to the spot market of soybeans.

Traditionally, time series of wholesale electricity market spot prices have been modelled either by mimicking market operation and equilibrating demand and supply, or by specifying an exogenous process for prices. More recently, a number of hybrid models have been developed, combining the merits of both methods. In this vein, we present an econometric model for daily spot prices in the New Zealand Electricity Market (NZEM) that utilises reservoir management theory to incorporate information on the hydro storage level, a recognised driver of NZEM spot price behaviour. In order to forecast future storage levels and prices, we also construct a model for daily reservoir releases that can be used in conjunction with time series of inflows. This analysis reveals that releases in New Zealand are driven primarily by hydrological factors, as opposed to market conditions. The combined price and storage forecasting model can be applied in a variety of contexts, and offers an alternative perspective to the traditional models of NZEM behaviour. Finally, we calibrate a Cournot model of market behaviour in the National Electricity Market of Australia during daily peak, shoulder and off-peak periods, adding credibility to the future application of such models. The resulting model parameters are, in general, consistent with conventional wisdom. Spot prices from this market are then modelled by combining the output of the analytical model with a stochastic price process.

O objetivo da presente dissertação consiste em verificar como se dá a transmissão de preços entre os mercados físico ao nível de produtor no Brasil e futuro para as commodities milho e soja, e, entre estes dois complexos produtivos. Para isso, utilizou-se o seguinte método de pesquisa: teste de raiz unitária, teste de co-integração, teste de causalidade de Granger, estimação da elasticidade de transmissão de preços e mecanismo de correção de erro. Os resultados indicam que há integração e consequentemente transmissão de preços entre os seguintes pares de variáveis (mercados), como dependentes e explicativas respectivamente: físico soja / futuro soja, físico milho / futuro milho, físico soja / futuro milho. O fato de existir co-integração entre tais pares de variáveis é condição suficiente para se afirmar a existência de uma relação linear de equilíbrio a longo prazo para o qual o sistema converge, validando os pressupostos teóricos da Lei do Preço Único e confirmando a integração. Porém, a estimação do parâmetro que corresponde ao coeficiente que mede a elasticidade de transmissão de preço não apresentou significância estatística para a relação físico milho / futuro milho. No caso da relação contemporânea entre físico soja / futuro soja a cada 1 dólar por saco de 60Kg de variação no mercado futuro de soja, 70% desta variação é transmitida ao mercado físico de soja. Já para a relação contemporânea entre físico soja / futuro milho para cada 1 dólar por saco de 60Kg de variação no mercado futuro de milho, 50% desta variação é transmitida ao mercado físico de soja. / The goal of the present dissertation is to verify how prices transmission take place between the spot market at producer level in Brazil and the future market for the commodities corn and soybeans, and, between these two productive complexes. For that, we used the following research method: unit-root test, co-integration test, Ganger causality test, estimation of elasticity in prices transmission and the mechanism of error correction. The results suggest that there is integration and therefore prices transmission between the following pairs of variables (markets), as dependent and explicative respectively: spot soybeans / future soybeans, spot corn / future corn, spot soybeans / future corn. The fact of existing cointegration between such pairs of variables is a sufficient condition to affirm the existence of a linear relation of equilibrium for long term for which the system converges, validating the theoretical assumed of the Law of One Price and confirming the integration. Nevertheless, the estimation of a parameter that corresponds to the coefficient that measures the elasticity of price transmission did not present statistical significance for the relation spot corn / future corn. In the contemporary relation case between spot soybeans / future soybeans, for each 1 dollar per bag of 60Kg of variation in the soybeans future market, 70% of this variation is transmitted to the spot soybeans market. Concerning the contemporary relation between spot soybeans / future corn, for each 1 dollar per bag of 60kg of variation in the corn future market, 50% of this variation is transmitted to the spot market of soybeans.

O objetivo da presente dissertação consiste em verificar como se dá a transmissão de preços entre os mercados físico ao nível de produtor no Brasil e futuro para as commodities milho e soja, e, entre estes dois complexos produtivos. Para isso, utilizou-se o seguinte método de pesquisa: teste de raiz unitária, teste de co-integração, teste de causalidade de Granger, estimação da elasticidade de transmissão de preços e mecanismo de correção de erro. Os resultados indicam que há integração e consequentemente transmissão de preços entre os seguintes pares de variáveis (mercados), como dependentes e explicativas respectivamente: físico soja / futuro soja, físico milho / futuro milho, físico soja / futuro milho. O fato de existir co-integração entre tais pares de variáveis é condição suficiente para se afirmar a existência de uma relação linear de equilíbrio a longo prazo para o qual o sistema converge, validando os pressupostos teóricos da Lei do Preço Único e confirmando a integração. Porém, a estimação do parâmetro que corresponde ao coeficiente que mede a elasticidade de transmissão de preço não apresentou significância estatística para a relação físico milho / futuro milho. No caso da relação contemporânea entre físico soja / futuro soja a cada 1 dólar por saco de 60Kg de variação no mercado futuro de soja, 70% desta variação é transmitida ao mercado físico de soja. Já para a relação contemporânea entre físico soja / futuro milho para cada 1 dólar por saco de 60Kg de variação no mercado futuro de milho, 50% desta variação é transmitida ao mercado físico de soja. / The goal of the present dissertation is to verify how prices transmission take place between the spot market at producer level in Brazil and the future market for the commodities corn and soybeans, and, between these two productive complexes. For that, we used the following research method: unit-root test, co-integration test, Ganger causality test, estimation of elasticity in prices transmission and the mechanism of error correction. The results suggest that there is integration and therefore prices transmission between the following pairs of variables (markets), as dependent and explicative respectively: spot soybeans / future soybeans, spot corn / future corn, spot soybeans / future corn. The fact of existing cointegration between such pairs of variables is a sufficient condition to affirm the existence of a linear relation of equilibrium for long term for which the system converges, validating the theoretical assumed of the Law of One Price and confirming the integration. Nevertheless, the estimation of a parameter that corresponds to the coefficient that measures the elasticity of price transmission did not present statistical significance for the relation spot corn / future corn. In the contemporary relation case between spot soybeans / future soybeans, for each 1 dollar per bag of 60Kg of variation in the soybeans future market, 70% of this variation is transmitted to the spot soybeans market. Concerning the contemporary relation between spot soybeans / future corn, for each 1 dollar per bag of 60kg of variation in the corn future market, 50% of this variation is transmitted to the spot market of soybeans.