Wind power can be related to natural disasters in several ways. This licentiate thesis gives some background and introduces four papers devoted to two aspects of this relation. The first section looks into how small-scale wind energy converters (WECs) could be used to generate power after a natural disaster. For this application diesel generators are the most common solution today, but there would be several advantages of replacing these systems. A study of off-grid systems with battery storage at 32 sites showed that photovoltaics (PV) were more suitable than WECs. The results were confirmed by a study for the entire globe; PV outperformed WECs at most sites when it comes to small-scale application. This is especially true for areas with a high disaster risk. Hybrid systems comprising both PV and WECs are however interesting at higher latitudes. For the Swedish case, it is shown that gridded data from a freely available meteorological model, combined with a statistical model, give good estimates of the mean wind speed at 10 meters above ground. This methodology of estimating the mean wind speed can be used when there is no time for a proper wind measurement campaign. The second section is directed towards wind power variability and integration. The results presented in the thesis are intended as a basis for future studies on how a substantially increased wind power capacity affects the electric grid in terms of stability, grid reinforcement requirements, increased balancing needs etc. A review of variability and forecastability for non-dispatchable renewable energy sources was performed together with researchers from the solar, wave and tidal power fields. Although a lot of research is conducted in these areas, it was concluded that more studies on combinations of the sources would be desirable. The disciplines could also learn from each other and benefit from the use of more unified methods and metrics. A model of aggregated hourly wind power production has finally been developed. The model is based on reanalysis data from a meteorological model and detailed information on Swedish WECs. The model proved very successful, both in terms of low prediction errors and in the match of probability density function for power and step changes of power. / Vindkraft kan relateras till naturkatastrofer på flera olika sätt. Den här licentiat\-avhandlingen ger bakgrund till och introducerar fyra artiklar som beskriver två aspekter av detta samband. I den första avdelningen undersöks hur småskalig vindkraft skulle kunna användas för att generera el efter en naturkatastrof. I dagsläget är det dieselaggregat som används för detta ändamål, men det skulle finnas stora fördelar med att övergå till förnybara system. En studie av 32 platser (myndigheten MSB:s utlandsstationeringar augusti 2012) visade att solceller var mer lämpade än vindkraftverk. Resultaten bekräftades av en studie för hela världen; solceller ger billigare system än småskaliga vindkraftverk för de flesta platser, inte minst om man tittar på områden som är utsatta för naturkatastrofer. Hybridsystem med både solceller och vindkraftverk var dock intressanta på högre breddgrader. För Sverige så visas det att data från en fritt tillgängliga meteorologisk modell tillsammans med en statistisk korrigering beroende på terrängtyp ger bra uppskattningar av medelvinden på 10 meters höjd. Den föreslagna metodiken kan vara användbar som ett komplement till vindmätningar eller om det inte finns tid eller möjlighet till en riktig mätkampanj. Den andra avdelningen är inriktad mot vindens variabilitet och integrering av vindkraft i kraftsystemet. De resultat som presenteras i denna avhandling är tänkta som en bas för framtida studier av hur en kraftigt ökad andel vindkraft påverkar elsystemet med avseende på stabilitet, nödvändiga nätförstärkningar, ökade krav på balanskraft etc. En översiktsstudie av variabilitet och prognosbarhet för intermittenta förnybara energikällor gjordes tillsammans med forskare inom sol-, våg och tidvattenkraft. Även om mycket forskning pågår inom dessa områden så var en slutsats att mer studier för kombinationer av olika källor skulle vara önskvärt. Forskare inom de olika disciplinerna skulle också kunna lära från varandra och dra fördel av gemensamma metoder och mått. Slutligen har en modell av aggregerad timvis vindkraftproduktion tagits fram. Modellen baseras på data från en meteorologisk modell samt detaljerad information om vindkraftverk i Sverige. Modellen visade sig vara mycket träffsäker, både vad gäller låga prediktionsfel och i överensstämmelse av sannolikhetsfördelning av effekt och stegförändring av timvis effekt.

In this dissertation, I examine the role that intentional descriptions play in our scientific study of the mind. Behavioural scientists often use intentional language in their characterization of cognitive systems, making reference to “beliefs”, “representations”, or “states of information”. What is the scientific value gained from employing such intentional terminology? I begin the dissertation by contrasting intentional descriptions with mechanistic descriptions, as these are the descriptions most commonly used to provide explanations in the behavioural sciences. I then examine the way that intentional descriptions are employed in various scientific contexts. I conclude that while mechanistic descriptions characterize the underlying structure of systems, intentional descriptions allow us to generate predictions of systems while remaining agnostic as to their mechanistic underpinnings. Having established this, I then argue that intentional descriptions share much in common with statistical models in the way they characterize systems. Given these similarities, I theorize that intentional descriptions are employed within scientific practice as a particular type of phenomenological model. Phenomenological models are used to study, characterize, and predict the phenomena produced by mechanistic systems without describing their underlying structure. I demonstrate why such models are integral to our scientific discovery, and understanding, of the mechanisms that make up the brain. With my account on the table, I then look back at previous accounts of intentional language that philosophers have offered in the past. I highlight insights that each brought to our understanding of intentional language, and point out where each ultimately goes astray. I conclude the dissertation by examining the ontological implications of my theory. I demonstrate that my account is compatible with versions of both realism, and anti-realism, regarding the existence of intentional states.

AN ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION OF RAJNISH PURI, for the Doctorate of Philosophy Degree in ENGINEERING SCIENCE WITH CONCENTRATION IN CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING, presented on APRIL 15, 2015 at Southern Illinois University Carbondale TITLE: DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETE COMPOSITES USING CLASS F FLY ASH AND PCC BOTTOM ASH, AND A STATISTICAL MODEL TO PREDICT COMPRESSIVE STRENGTH OF SIMILAR CONCRETE COMPOSITES ADVISOR: Dr. Sanjeev Kumar It is a common knowledge that the use of concrete is as old as the evolution of human civilization. People have always dreamed beyond the dotted lines and so does the usage of concrete. With the rapid industrialization and globalization, the journey from ordinary concrete to high performance concrete (HPC) has been swift and remarkable. The diversification and utilization of high performance concrete has given the tool in the hands of engineers and architects who can now design and execute buildings of any shape and size deemed impractical a few decades ago. The aim of this research was to develop high performance concrete composites having different percentages of Illinois Class “F” fly ash and bottom ash by replacing the appropriate proportions of Type 1 portland cement and fine aggregate, respectively. The target was to develop high performance concrete composites that have compressive strength of 8,000 psi (55 Mpa) after 28 days of curing in water with a slump of 4±½” (102mm ± 13mm) and air content between 4 and 6 percent. In order to achieve the targeted air content, an air entraining agent DARAVAIR 1400 was used. The water-cement ratio of 0.3 was maintained throughout the research and to achieve the targeted slump, high-range water reducer ADVA 140M was used. The engineering parameters of the high performance concrete composites and an equivalent control mix were evaluated by conducting a detailed laboratory study which included several tests, e.g., slump, fresh air content, compressive strength, splitting-tensile strength, flexural strength, resistance to rapid freezing and thawing, sealed shrinkage and free swelling, and rapid chloride permeability. The results presented show that all high performance concrete composites developed in this study achieved the targeted compressive strength of 8,000 psi (55 MPa) after 28 days of curing in water. The results of the durability tests show that the concrete composites developed in this study have trends similar to that of an equivalent conventional concrete. Based, on the results of this study, it was concluded that the concrete composites have potential to be used on real world projects and thus help the environment by substantially reducing the amount of fly ash and bottom ash going to ash ponds or landfills. Based on the experimental test result data, a detailed statistical analysis was conducted to develop an empirical model to predict compressive strength of similar concrete composites for a given amount of fly ash, bottom ash, and curing period. Additional laboratory tests were performed to validate the mathematical model.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:30:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-08-21Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:20:51Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_mj_me_ilha.pdf: 820513 bytes, checksum: fe37c522b532d6450b5dfd94ee08db67 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Neste trabalho foram estudadas as propriedades elétricas e dielétricas de um compósito à base de poliuretano derivado de óleo de mamona (PU) e negro de fumo (NF). As amostras de PU/NF foram preparadas com quantidades fixas de prépolímero e poliol (seguindo uma fração 10/7 em massa) e com diferentes quantidades de NF. Medidas de espectroscopia de impedância permitiram analisar as propriedades elétricas do compósito em campo elétrico alternado em diferentes temperaturas, enquanto que, o método de quatro pontas foi utilizado para calcular a condutividade dc das diferentes amostras. Neste trabalho, também, foi desenvolvido um modelo estatístico bidimensional de redes de resistores e capacitores que gera a estrutura morfológica e calcula a condutividade alternada do compósito PU/NF a partir de uma técnica de matriz de transferência proposto por Derrida . As curvas da permissividade real e imaginária em função da frequência para amostras de PU/NF com diferentes proporções de NF demonstraram o mesmo comportamento qualitativo, ou seja, possuindo maiores valores para baixas frequências e altas temperaturas e decrescendo com aumento da frequência. As medidas de permissividade dielétrica imaginária apresentaram picos de relaxação devido ao processo de polarização interfacial entre o negro de fumo e a matriz polimérica. No entanto, esses picos são mais pronunciados quando se utiliza o módulo elétrico, que minimiza os efeitos de condução dc. O modelo estatístico reproduziu bem os dados experimentais obtidos das medidas de espectroscopia de impedância. A partir dos ajustes teórico-experimentais pode-se observar que a condutividade elétrica para a amostra 99/01 ocorre predominantemente por condução eletrônica nas regiões isolantes, obedecendo ao modelo modificado de Abrahams e Miller. Entretanto, para as amostras 95/05 e 90/10 o modelo de Abrahams e... / In this work we investigated the electrical properties of the polyurethane derived from castor oil (PUR) and carbon black (CB) composite. Samples of PUR/CB were prepared by fixed quantities of the pre-polymer and polyol (following a ratio of 10/7 by weight) and mixing different amount of the CB. Measurement of impedance spectroscopy was used to analyze the transport properties of the composite as function of applied electric field at different temperatures. The method of four probes was used to measurement the dc conductivity of the PUR/CB composites. A statistical model two-dimensional was developed based on networks of resistors and capacitors that generates the morphological structure and calculates the alternating conductivity of the PUR/CB composite using a transfer matrix technique proposed by Derrida et al. The plots of real and imaginary permittivity as a function of frequency for the samples of PUR/CB with different amount CB showed the same qualitative behavior with higher values for low frequencies and high temperatures. Measurement of imaginary dielectric permittivity showed peaks due to the process of interfacial polarization relaxation between the carbon black and polymeric matrix. However, these peaks are more pronounced when using the electrical modulus, which minimizes the effects of dc conduction. The statistical model reproduced well the experimental data obtained from the measurement of impedance spectroscopy. From theoretical and experimental settings it can be observed that the electrical conductivity for the 99/01 sample is predominantly by electron conduction in the insulating regions, in according at modified model of Miller and Abrahams. However, for samples 95/05 and 90/10 model of Abrahams and Miller dominates at low frequencies (below 103 Hz) and the Drude model is predominant in the higher frequency (above 104 Hz).

Statistical distributions are used to model behaviour of real VoIP traffic. We investigate call holding and inter-arrival times as well as speech patterns. The consequences of using an inappropriate model for network dimensioning are briefly discussed. Visual examination is used to compare well known distributions with empirical data. Our results support the general opinion that the Exponential distribution is not appropriate for modelling call holding time. We find that the distribution of talkspurt periods is well modelled by the Lognormal distribution and the silence periods by the generalized Pareto distribution. It is also observed that the call inter-arrival times tend to follow a heavy tailed distribution.

L’urbanisation engendre, par l’imperméabilisation des surfaces et la présence de bâtiments, une modification locale du climat et, plus spécifiquement, le phénomène d’îlot de chaleur urbain (ICU). Ce phénomène se traduit par l’augmentation de la température en ville la nuit. Lors des vagues de chaleur ce phénomène peut causer un inconfort voire une surmortalité. Dans le contexte du changement climatique et d’une dynamique démographique importante, la thèse est réalisée sur le territoire de Rennes Métropole. Au cours de cette thèse, plusieurs objectifs sont poursuivis. Dans un premier temps, l’étude porte sur l’analyse de la variabilité spatiale de l’ICU selon l’occupation du sol et des formes urbaines. Afin d’observer ce phénomène sur le territoire de Rennes Métropole, plusieurs réseaux de mesuressont mis en place. Le premier réseau concerne l’échelle de l’agglomération avec 22 stations météorologiques. Le second réseau est établi à l’échelle intra-urbaine avec l’installation de 20 capteurs de température. Enfin, le troisième réseau de mesures vise à observer la variabilité de l’ICU au sein de deux quartiers rennais et d’une petite ville, Vezin-le-Coquet. Dans un second temps, des modèles de spatialisation de l’ICU sont construits à l’échelle de l’agglomération, puis, à l’échelle intra-urbaine. Ces modèles permettent de réaliser des cartes de l’ICU pour ces deux échelles emboitées. Dans un troisième temps, l’analyse temporelle est établie par la relation entre les types de temps et l’ICU. Cette analyse permet de construire un modèle de prévision de l’ICU quotidien. A partir de ce modèle, l’ICU quotidien est projeté par les sorties régionalisées des modèles du changement climatique. Plusieurs outils d’aide à la décision sont proposés à partir des modèles développés de l’ICU. L’exposition de l’agglomération rennaise au changement climatique est évaluée à partir des cartes de l’ICU et de plusieurs indices projetés par les sorties régionalisées des modèles du changement climatique / Urban development, characterized by the presence of buildings and impervious surfaces, modify the local climate and in particular, enhance the urban heat island (UHI). This phenomenon raises temperatures in cities at night, which could cause discomfort and over-mortality during heat waves. In the context of climate change and important population dynamics, this thesis is carried out in the Rennes Metropolitan area (in Brittany). Firstly, this thesis focuses on the spatial analysis of UHI variability according to land use and urban forms. To observe UHI in the Rennes Metropolitan area, a network of multiple measurement types were implemented at various scale. 1) a network of 22 permanents weather stations located in urban/rural sites; 2) a network of 20 temperature sensors placed in intra-urban area; and 3) a network of temperature measurements in two neighborhoods of Rennes and a small town, Vezin-le-Coquet. Secondly, spatial models of UHI were designed in this thesis at both the urban agglomeration and intra-urban scale. This multi-scale approach produced UHI map for these nesting-scales. Thirdly, this thesis determined the temporal variability of UHI by looking at the interaction between weather types and UHI. This analysis produced a statistical model of daily UHI magnitude according to meteorological observations. This model combined with data from downscaled climate change scenarios provided future projections of UHI. Lastly, this study deals with tools for town planning to prevent intensive UHI. UHI maps and downscaled climate change scenarios defined the risk assessment in the Rennes Metropolitan area

A taxa na qual a madeira se converte em carvão é determinante para a avaliação da resistência ao fogo, pois o colapso de elementos estruturais de madeira e de seus derivados quando expostos ao fogo ocorre principalmente pela redução da área resistente da seção, devido à formação de carvão. A resistência ao fogo depende, portanto, das dimensões da seção transversal que é reduzida gradualmente ao ser exposta ao fogo. Vários países têm investido em pesquisas para a caracterização e determinação da taxa de carbonização com base em diferentes espécies. Nesse trabalho são apresentados dois modelos de taxa de carbonização para a madeira de Eucalyptus das espécies citriodora e grandis, de grande interesse para aplicação estrutural e plantadas no Brasil. Um para peças de madeira com pequena dimensão (17,2 cm x 17,2 cm x 6,0 cm) e outro para as vigas estruturais (0,16 cm x 0,26 cm x 2,00 m). A curva de aquecimento adotada foi a recomendada pela ASTM E-119. / The rate at which the wood converts in char is determinant to evaluate the wood fire endurance, because the failure of wooden structural elements and its composites exposed to fire occurs through reduction of cross section. The fire resistance depends on cross sections dimensions that are gradually reduced when exposed to fire. Several countries have invested in research to determine the wood charring used for building construction that result in the establishment of values to different species. This work presents two charring rate models for citriodora and grandis species of Eucalyptus, that presents structural interests in assemblies in Brazil. One model for small pieces (17,2 cm x 17,2 cm x 6,0 cm) and the other using structural beam ( 0,16 cm x 0,26 cm x 2,00 m). The standard temperature x time curve was ASTM E-119.

Identifying common root causes of systematic defects in a short time is crucial for yield improvement. Diagnosis driven yield analysis (DDYA) such as Root cause deconvolution (RCD) is a method to estimate root cause distribution by applying statistical analysis on volume diagnosis. By fixing identified common root causes, yield can be improved. With advanced technologies, smaller feature size and more complex fabrication processes for manufacturing VLSI semiconductor devices lead to more complicated failure mechanisms. Lack of domain knowledge of such failure mechanisms makes identifying the emerging root causes more and more difficult. These root causes include but are not limited to layout pattern (certain prone to fail layout shapes) and cell internal root causes. RCD has proved to have certain degree of success in previous work, however, these root cause are not included and pose a challenge for RCD. Furthermore, complex volume diagnosis brings difficulty in investigation on RCD. To overcome the above challenges to RCD, improvement based on better understanding of the method is desired. The first part of this dissertation proposes a card game model to create controllable diagnosis data which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of DDYA techniques. Generally, each DDYA technique could have its own potential issues, which need to be evaluated for future improvement. However, due to limitation of real diagnosis data, it is difficult to, 1. Obtain diagnosis data with sufficient diversity and 2. Isolate certain issues and evaluate them separately. With card game model given correct statistical model parameters, impact of different diagnosis scenarios on RCD are evaluated. Overfitting problem from limited sample size is alleviated by the proposed cross validation method. In the second part of this dissertation, an enhanced RCD flow based on pre-extract layout patterns is proposed to identify layout pattern root causes. Prone to fail layout patterns are crucial factors for yield loss, but they normally have enormous number of types which impact the effectiveness of RCD. Controlled experiment shows effectiveness of enhanced RCD on both layout pattern root causes and interconnect root causes after extending to layout pattern root causes. Test case from silicon data also validates the proposed flow. The last part of this dissertation addresses RCD extension to cell internal root causes. Due to limitation of domain knowledge in both diagnosis process and defect behavior, parameters of RCD model are not perfectly accurate. As RCD moves to identify cell internal root causes, such limitation become an unescapable challenge for RCD. Due to inherent characteristics of cell internal root cause, RCD including cell internal root cause faces more difficulty due to less accurate model parameters. Rather than enhancing domain knowledge, supervised learning for more accurate parameters based on training data are proposed to improve accuracy of RCD. Both controlled experiments and real silicon data shows that with parameters learned from supervised learning, accuracy of RCD with cell internal root cause are greatly improved.

This diploma thesis deals with segmentation of blood vessel from images acquired by fundus camera. The characteristic of fundus images and current methods of segmentation are described in theoretical part. The reach of the practical part is method using statistical model. The model using Student´s distribution for automatic segmentation is gradually drafted. Firstly EM- algorithm has been incorporated and model drafted on Markov random fields for improving robustness to noise after that. Contrast of thin blood vessel is improved in image preprocessing part by discrete wave transformation. The output image is used as mask for grayscale intensity decrease of thinnest blood-vessel and intensity increase of background. Whole model was programed in Matlab. The model was tested on whole HRF database. The quantitative evaluation of binary images were compared with golden standard images.

This diploma thesis describes several selected network attacks detection method using statistical models with NetFlow data. First are described several well known and threats for computer networks, which are easily detectable in the NetFlow data. Thesis also introduce and present the NetFlow technology including its protocol and architecture. The theoretical part of the thesis describes statistical methods with focus on the ASTUTE method, that can be used for an anomaly detection. Following part introduces tools used for method implementation as the NfSen plugins. Last parts of the thesis describe in detail implementation of the plugins and following plugins testing which included simulated network attacks.