Since the seminal papers of Bates and Granger in 1969, a superfluous amount of information has been published on combining singular forecasts. Materialized evidence has habitually demonstrated that combining the forecasts will produce the best model. Moreover, while it is possible that a best singular model could outperform a composite model, using multiple models provides the advantage of risk diversification. It has also been shown to produce a lower forecasting error. The question to whether to combine has been replaced with what amount of emphasis should be placed on each forecast. Researchers are aspired to derive optimal weights that would produce the lowest forecasting errors. An equal composite of the mean square error, by the covariance, and the best previous model, among others, have been suggested. Other academicians have suggested the use of mechanical derived weights through the use of computer programs. These weights have shown robust results. Once the composite and singular forecasts have been estimated, a systematic approach to evaluate the singular forecasts is needed. Forecasting errors, such as the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error, are the most common criteria for elimination in both agriculture and other sectors. Although a valid mean of selection, different forecasting errors can produce a different ordinal ranking of the forecasts; thus, producing inconclusive results. These findings have promoted the inspection for other suitable candidates for forecast evaluation. At the forefront of this pursuit is stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency. Stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency have traditionally been used as a way to rank wealth or returns from a group of alternatives. They have been principally used in the finance and money sector as a way to evaluate investment strategies. Holt and Brandt in 1985 proposed using stochastic dominance to select between different hedging strategies. Their results suggest that stochastic dominance has the opportunity to feasibly be used in selecting the most accurate forecast. This thesis had three objectives: 1) To determine whether live cattle basis forecasting error could be reduced in comparison to singular models when using composite forecasts 2) To determine whether stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency could be used to systematically select the most accurate forecasts 3) To determine whether currently reported forecasting error measures might lead to inaccurate conclusions in which forecast was correct. The objectives were evaluated using two primary markets, Utah and Western Kansas, and two secondary markets, Texas and Nebraska. The data for live cattle slaughter steer basis was taken and subsequently computed from the Livestock Marketing Information Center, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and United States Department of Agriculture from 2004 to 2012. Seven singular were initially used and adapted from the current academic literature. After the models were evaluated using forecasting error, stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency, seven composite models were created. For each separate composite model, a different weighting scheme was applied. The “optimal” composite weight, in particular, was estimated using GAMS whose objective function was to select the forecast combination that would reduce the variance-covariance between the singular forecasting models. The composite models were likewise systematically evaluated using forecasting error, stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency. The results indicate that forecasting error can be reduced in all four markets, on the average by using an optimal weighting scheme. Optimal weighting schemes can also outperform the benchmark equal weights. Moreover, a combination of fast reaction time series and market condition, supply and demand, forecasts provide the better model. Stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency provided confirmatory results and selected the efficient set of the forecasts over a range of risk. It likewise indicated that forecasting error may provide a point estimate rather than a range of error. Suggestions for their application and implementation into extension outlook forecasts and industry application are suggested.

7th IFAC Symposium on Advances in Automotive Control, The International Federation of Automatic Control, September 4-7, 2013. Tokyo, Japan

Universiẗat, Diss., 2002--Stuttgart.

Master of Science / Department of Animal Sciences and Industry / K C Olson / Eight native tallgrass pastures infested with sericea lespedeza (initial basal frequency = 2.9 ± 2.74%) were grazed by yearling beef steers (n = 279 / yr; 1.1 ha / steer) from 15 April to 15 July for 2 grazing seasons. Subsequent to steer grazing, mature ewes (n = 813 / yr) were allowed to graze 4 of the 8 pastures (0.15 ha / ewe) from 31 July to 1 October. Remaining pastures were rested until the subsequent April. Animals were allocated randomly to pastures annually; grazing treatments remained fixed for the 2-yr experiment. Four permanent 100-m transects were laid out in a north-south gradient in each pasture. Beginning 1 May, steer diet composition was monitored by collecting 5 fresh fecal pats along each transect at 2-wk intervals until steers were removed on 15 July. Fecal pats were dried and ground individually and then composited by weight within transect. Twenty-five mature ewes from each pasture were randomly selected to monitor diet composition. On 15 August and 15 September, ewes were gathered and restrained; fecal grab samples were then collected from the individuals selected for diet composition analysis. Microhistological analysis was conducted on steer fecal composites and fecal samples from individual ewes, using pure samples of 17 predominant grass, forb, and browse species from the experimental site as reference standards. Fecal and standard samples were prepared for microhistological analysis and viewed using a compound microscope at 100x magnification. Botanical composition of pastures was measured in October and compared with botanical composition of yearling beef steer and mature ewe diets. Diet selection exercised by yearling steer and mature ewes was evaluated using Kulcyznski’s Similarity Index. Proportions of bare soil, litter cover, and total basal vegetation cover did not differ (P ≥ 0.38) between pastures for either steer or sheep diet evaluations. Similarly, basal cover of the 17 plants selected as microhistological standards did not differ (P ≥ 0.07) between pastures for either steer or sheep diet evaluations. The proportions of total graminoids and total forbs and forb-like plants in the diets of grazing steers were not different (P = 0.37) between sampling periods and were interpreted to indicate steer diets were strongly dominated by graminoids (≥ 88.4% of diets). Yearling beef steers consistently exhibited strong preference (i.e., ≤ 6% similarity with pasture composition) for Bouteloua gracilis, Bouteloua dactyloides, Dalea purpurea, and Liatris punctata, whereas they strongly avoided Lespedeza cuneata and Symphyotrichum ericoides. The proportions of total graminoids and total forbs and forb-like plants in the diets of grazing ewes were not different (P = 0.67) between sampling periods and were interpreted to indicate that mature ewes selected consistent proportions of grasses and forbs over time (average = 58 and 42% of diets for grasses and forbs, respectively). Mature ewes consistently exhibited strong preference (i.e., ≤ 10% similarity with pasture composition) for Bouteloua gracilis, Bouteloua dactyloides, Dalea purpurea, Liatris punctata, Vernonia baldwinii, and Ambrosia artemisiifolia. None of the 17 microhistological reference standards were consistently avoided by ewes.

A series of experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of adding an exogenous proteolytic enzyme (EPE) on the growth performance of beef steers fed growing and finishing diets containing 30% dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS; Exp. 1), and results corroborated by in vitro ruminal fermentation in continuous cultures (Exp. 2). In Exp. 1, 48 group-penned Angus crossbred steers were randomly assigned to 2 treatments (n = 6) in a completely randomized design: DDGS TMR (DT) without and with EPE (27 mg of azocasein hydrolyzed/min/kg DM TMR). The addition of EPE during the growing phase increased DMI (P = 0.02), but had no effects on final BW, BW change, ADG, and G:F. Adding EPE during the growing phase decreased NDF digestibility, whereas the digestibility of DM, CP, and ADF were not affected. There was a tendency for both ADG (P = 0.09) and final BW (P = 0.11) to increase during the finishing phase without affecting BW change and G:F. As opposed to the growing phase, EPE increased digestibility (P < 0.04) of DM, CP, NDF, and ADF. In Exp. 2, 4 dietary treatments were assessed in continuous cultures; non-DDGS TMR (NDT) or DT finishing beef steer diet was combined without or with EPE in a 2 × 2 factorial design. The DT was the same diet used as the finishing diet in Exp. 1, and dose rate of EPE was the same as Exp. 1. Feeding the DT increased total VFA concentration (P = 0.01) which corresponded with a decreased (P < 0.01) pH compared with the NDT diet (5.8 vs. 6.0) regardless of EPE supplementation. Supplementing EPE tended to increase (P = 0.07) the total VFA concentration in both diets, but only increased digestibility of DM, OM, and NDF when added to the DT diet (P < 0.05), leading to tendencies on TMR × enzyme interaction (P < 0.10). Addition of the EPE product assessed in this study resulted in positive responses in Exp. 1 and 2 when added to finishing beef steer diets, and thus it is clear that use of protease enzyme products may be more effective in high concentrate diets such as finishing beef steer diets containing DDGS.

In the fall of 2004, the High Speed Autonomous Vehicle Team, a group of 16 students took on the goal of converting a vehicle to drive-by-wire status. The main goal of this project was to convert a Cadillac SRX donated by General Motors, to fully by-wire control. This thesis presents the HSAVT brake-by-wire and the steer-by-wire solution. In addition, the results of a literary search on drive-by-wire systems are presented. The results of the project proved that the team came up with a solid, effective drive-by-wire vehicle and that the project met all of the primary goals of the project. / Master of Science

This thesis describes the mechanical design of a prototype vehicle developed for a company located in California. The project was based on an earlier vehicle located at KTH, Transport Labs, and investigated if the existing concept for the vehicle would work as a concept for an autonomous prototype, with focus on component layout and increased forces. The design of the vehicle is based on a concept with a carbon fiber bottom plate, two separate suspension modules with electric hub motors and steer by wire. In addition a steering interface, seats and a roll cage is added to the base. Quadrant symmetric design and four wheel steering/drive makes the vehicle move equally good forward and reverse. The steering is controlled by individual rotating actuators mounted at each wheel, meaning that the vehicle, apart from acquiring a low turning radius also can angle the wheel in the same direction and drive with so called crab steer where the car is moving sideways without rotating itself. The brake system contains a regular manual hydraulic brake system in parallel with an autonomous brake system. The project was started by generating a list of requirements. This was then considered when doing the design in CAD (Solid Edge). The design was validated with ADAMS (MBS) and ANSYS Workbench (FEA). The majority of the project was carried out in Sweden at KTH where the driveline of the vehicle was designed and assembled. The driveline was then transported to California where the vehicle was finalized and tested. The test carried out indicated that the concept was working as a prototype but that some of the components needed to be upgraded. All tests needed was not carried out which led to that the maximum speed of the vehicle was limited to 40 km/h Further durability-, and high load tests will be carried out in order to, with suitable safety, raise the maximum speed. The maximum steering angle of each wheel acquired was 23 degrees that, with four wheel steering, means an effective steering angle of 46 degrees. The cars minimum turning radius was around 5 meters. / Detta examensarbete beskriver den mekaniska konstruktionen av ett prototypfordon för ett företag beläget i Kalifornien. Projektet utgick från ett befintligt fordon på KTH, Transport Labs och undersökte hur vida det befintliga konceptet för det fordonet fungerade för en autonom prototyp, med särskilt hänseende till komponentplacering och ökade krafter. Fordonet är konstruerad runt en bottenplatta av kolfiber, två separata hjulupphängningar med elektriska navmotorer och så kallad ”steer by wire” samt kompletteras med ett förargränssnitt, säten och rullbur. Kvadrant symmetriska design och fyrhjuls styrning/drivning gör att fordonet för sig lika bra framåt som bakåt. Styrningen sköts av en individuell roterande motor fäst vid varje hjul vilket innebär att fordonet, utöver att få en låg svängradie, även kan vinkla alla hjul åt samma håll och uppnå så kallad krabbstyrning där bilen rör sig i sidled utan att själv rotera. Bromssystemet består av ett vanligt manuellt hydrauliskt bromssystem parallell kopplat med ett autonomt aktiverat bromssystem. Projektet inleddes med generering av en kravspecifikation. Denna låg sedan som grund för konstruktionen som genomfördes i Solid Edge (CAD). Konstruktionen validerades med hjälp av ADAMS (MBS) och ANSYS Workbench (FEM). Största delen av projektet genomfördes i Sverige på KTH där drivlinan av fordonets konstruerades och monterads. Denna flögs sedan till Kalifornien där fordonet färdigställdes och testades på plats. De genomförda testerna tydde på att konceptet fungerade bra som prototyp men att vissa komponenter behövde uppgraderas. Full testning han inte genomföras vilket ledde till att den maximala hastigheten begränsades till 40 km/h. Vidare uthållighets- och höglasttester kommer genomföras för att, på ett säkert sätt, kunna öka den maximala tillåtna hastigheten. Den maximala styrvinkeln för varje hjul uppgick till 23 grader vilket, med fyrhjulningsstyrning, innebär en effektiv styrvinkel på 46 grader. Bilens minimi svängradie uppgick till cirka 5 meter.

A formação de alianças estratégicas entre pecuaristas de corte (AEPs) é um fenômeno recente na cadeia da carne bovina brasileira e apresenta um enorme potencial de promover benefícios para o setor, que carece de informações sobre estas organizações. Este trabalho descreve detalhadamente as diferentes configurações e abrangência de atuação das AEPs do Estado do Paraná (PR), e demonstra o possível benefício econômico para os potenciais participantes. Para isto, foram realizadas duas etapas metodológicas: 1) realizou-se um estudo de caso múltiplo em 6 AEPs do PR para caracterizar as formas de configuração, bem como mensurar a abrangência de atuação destas organizações no Estado; 2) realizou-se um estudo de caso em uma AEP para simular o benefício econômico obtido pelos associados. Na primeira etapa, identificou-se que o objetivo principal das AEPs é promover o abate e a comercialização da carcaça de novilhos precoces dos associados. As principais motivações para a formação são agregar valor ao produto e reduzir os riscos na comercialização. As 6 AEPs possuem o total de 242 pecuaristas associados e algumas medeiam as negociações entre os diversos segmentos da cadeia. O funcionamento das AEPs envolve o trabalho direto de 355 pessoas. No ano de 2015, as 6 AEPs comercializaram 17,4 mil toneladas de carcaça, o que representa cerca de 5% da produção Estadual. As carcaças são comercializadas com média de 14% de valor agregado para mais de 500 lojas de varejo, exclusivamente dentro do Estado. As especificações de conformidade das AEPs são semelhantes, mas as bonificações pelos animais variam de 1% até 10% acima do preço de mercado. Neste tipo de organização, os determinantes para o sucesso são aqueles que agregam confiança aos associados e aos clientes. Na segunda etapa, o estudo de caso de uma AEP demonstrou, por meio de simulações matemáticas, que os associados que produzem animais de uma determinada raça tem sua receita anual acrescida em 5% em média, se comparada à comercialização no mercado comum. As AEPs são mecanismos eficientes de coordenação da cadeia e agregação de valor ao produto. No entanto, a viabilidade econômica da associação a uma AEP depende da magnitude de investimentos necessários para a adesão e para a adequação do sistema produtivo, caso isto não seja analisado, a associação pode trazer mais frustrações do que benefícios. / The establishment of strategic alliances among beef producers (AEPs) is a recent phenomenon in Brazilian beef supply chain and presents a considerable potential to promote benefits to this segment, however, information about these organizations are limited. This work describes in detail the different conformation and operating coverage of Paraná State (PR) AEPs and presents the possible economic profit for potential participants. For that, two methodological stages were performed: 1) a multiple case study was performed in 6 AEPs from PR to characterize their conformation and to measure these organizations operating coverage inside the State; 2) a case study was performed in a single AEP to simulate the associates economic profit. In first stage, the major goal of AEPs was identified as the promotion of slaughter and commercialization of carcass of steers from associates. The main motivations to EAP formation are to add value to the product and to reduce commercialization venture. 242 participant producers compound the 6 AEPs. Some of these 6 EAPs mediate the negotiation between many chain segments. AEPs effectiveness demands 355 people direct work. In 2015, those 6 AEPs commercialized 17,4 ton of carcass, what represents around 5% of total State production. Carcasses are commercialized to more than 500 retail stores, exclusively inside the State, with 14% of added value in average. AEP conformity specifications are similar, however, the bonus for animals range from 1% to 10% over the market price. Trust, for associates and clients, is determinant for this type of association success. In second stage, the case study of a single AEP, mathematical simulations presented that raising a particular breed increases 5% in annual income, if compared to common market. The AEPs are efficient tools for chain coordination and for adding value to product. However, the association to an AEP economic viability depends on the magnitude of required investments for adhesion and for adequate production system. If these items are not analyzed, the association is more susceptible to failure than success.

A factorially designed experiment had 18 Hereford and 18 Holstein steers on individually fed, high-grain diets. One diet included 59% rolled barley, 30% CSF beet pulp, 5% protein, vitamin, mineral, and stilbestrol supplement, and 6% chopped hay and straw. The other diet had corn silage (11% air dry matter equivalent) substituted for the chopped roughage and 5% of the beet pulp. The Holsteins were heavier at the start, 752 lb. as compared to the Herefords 686 lb. average. The weight differential was maintained throughout the approximately 180-day trial. The Holstein's feed consumption and rate of gain, 23.4 and 2.71 lb. respectively, were significantly better than the hereford's 20.1 and 2.23 lb. The average feed conversion difference was not significant, with 8.68 for the Holsteins and 9.20 for the Herefords. There was no significant difference in carcass grade, although the Herefords tended to grade higher and had significantly better conformation scores. The Holsteins had less fat cover, .178 inches as compared to .497 inches, and a significantly higher cutability, with 52% for the Holsteins vs. 50% for the Herefords. Feed conversion was 8.57 for the cattle on the diet containing silage and 9.30 for those on the diet without silage (P<.05). This experiment's relatively low level of silage apparently improved palatability and minimized the wastage of "fines." The relatively large variations in all measures among individual animals were considered a significant observation.

Cette thèse étudie le problème du pilotage d'un système de direction découplé dans un véhicule. L'idée est de contrôler les deux sous-systèmes (système de restitution et système de braquage) constituant la direction de manière à : fournir au conducteur, par l'intermédiaire du volant, des sensations de conduite lui permettant d'appréhender le comportement dynamique de son véhicule ; procurer au conducteur une direction répondant à certains critères de confort ; permettre l'amélioration du comportement dynamique du véhicule en jouant sur la dynamique du système de direction. L'étude présente un modèle de référence décrivant le comportement souhaité d'un système de direction une fois implanté dans un véhicule. Ce modèle est construit de manière à prendre en compte l'influence des efforts extérieurs issus du contact pneus/sol, ceux-ci étant représentatifs du comportement dynamique du véhicule<br />Deux méthodes de commande sont proposées afin de reproduire le comportement du modèle de référence sur un système de direction découplée. Des essais sur prototype ont été réalisés et des résultats expérimentaux sont proposés.