Winter storms can have devastating social and economic impacts in Europe. The severity of storms and the region they influence (southern or northern Europe) is related to the index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However recent findings indicate that over the last millennium the relationship between the NAO and storminess varied and the forcings over centennial timescales are debated. Therefore in this research storminess has been reconstructed from NAO-sensitive regions of southern Europe (Galicia, Spain) and northern Europe (Outer Hebrides, Scotland), to investigate the Late Holocene NAO-storminess relationship and the causes of observed variability. Reconstructions were based on measurements of aeolian sand deposits within ombrotrophic peat bogs and a lake sedimentary archive from the Hebrides. The elemental composition of the lake sediments were analysed (using ITRAX XRF core scanning) to identify aeolian/in-washed sediment resulting from storms, as confirmed by correlations with instrumental data. As this is a relatively new technique there was a methodological focus on assessing its applicability for storm reconstructions and the maximum resolution achievable. It is concluded the reconstruction had a 10-year resolution (equivalent to 2-5 mm sampling resolution). The peat bog reconstructions span 4000 cal yr BP to present and indicate that there was a Late Holocene northward storm track shift. The results suggest that storminess was high in Galicia between 4000-1800 cal yr BP, after which it decreased and then gradually increased in the Outer Hebrides after 1500 cal yr BP. Comparison with an NAO reconstruction supports a consistent NAO-storm relationship through the Late Holocene. Orbital forcing is suggested as causing a steepening of the latitudinal temperature gradient and increasingly zonal circulation. Superimposed on this trend are centennial variations, which spectral analysis and visual comparisons suggest are primarily the result of solar minima (suggested as causing a weakened latitudinal temperature gradient and meridional circulation patterns), with some additional forcing from volcanic and oceanic changes. Therefore there has been a consistent storm-NAO relationship through the Late Holocene; however there appear to have been millennial and centennial shifts as the result of hemispheric circulation reorganisations.

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are a common feature of mid- and high-latitudes which, on a large scale, are a primary mechanism by which heat and moisture are transported from equator to pole. ETCs also exert a major impact at smaller scales. Communities along the western coast of Alaska face many types of impacts generated by the winds associated with ETCs, including storm surges, sea water intrusion into fresh water stores, and coastal erosion. Such “strong wind events”, which can occur independent of an ETC, can also generate hazardous sea states and associated impacts on shipping. With no roads, coastal Alaska relies heavily on marine and air transportation. Hazards posed to marine and air travel are often related to two main types of weather: wind and fog. Consultations with stakeholders in the marine transportation community have indicated more precisely specific aspects of poor weather, such as high wind events, that are problematic, including the idea that the periods between strong wind events, defined as lull periods, represent an important metric when planning travel between points of safe harbour. Three separate studies of storminess metrics in the North Pacific and Alaskan regions are presented. The first study presents both a comparison of two storm identification and tracking algorithms and an evaluation of the general characteristics of extratropical cyclones for the North Pacific as portrayed in two reanalyses. The second study applies a modified wind event identification algorithm to reanalysis data to evaluate the spatial climatological patterns of wind events in the circum-Arctic. The third study tests the statistical relationships and predictability of two measures of storm activity - cyclone track density (TDEN) and wind event frequency - in the North Pacific using teleconnection indices exhibiting local influence. The first study showed that the general patterns and trends of cyclone characteristics are similar between the two methods, though with increased values of cyclogenesis density, cyclolysis density, and track density when using the relative vorticity based method. A comparison between storm tracks for NCEP1 and the 56-member ensemble of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis v2 (20CR) shows distinct differences between the 20CR and NCEP1 mean climatology for main storminess indicators. The second study evaluated the spatial and temporal characteristics of wind events and introduced a novel indicator that characterizes periods of favorable weather between strong wind events that last 48-hours or longer, termed lull events. Lull periods were found to be an important consideration for northern marine operations – both economic and subsistence. Additionally, combinations of lull and wind event indicators, termed lull/storm winds (LSW), were analyzed and showed that preferred areas of wind events and lull events are not always spatially coherent. The third study tested the statistical relationships and predictability of two measures of storm activity - cyclone track density (TDEN) and wind event frequency - in the North Pacific using teleconnection indices with local influence for the winter period of 1950 - 2012. Two statistical modeling techniques are applied to evaluate linear and non-linear methods of prediction for the region. For both measures of storm activity, the North Pacific index, Niño 3.4 index, and the AO index were found to be the best predictors. Using a 23-year hindcast period (1980 – 2012), the region of highest wind event anomaly prediction skill is located in the western Bering Sea, with hindcast correlation values as high as +0.5 and root mean squared skill scores (RMSESS) 25% higher than climatology. Highest TDEN predictive skill from the 23-year hindcast is found in the southeast region of the North Pacific, near the California coastline, with correlation and RMSESS as high as +0.7 and 25 - 30%, respectively. / Graduate

The overall aim of this thesis was to explore the impact of environmental changes (relative sea level increase and climate) on coastal communities and to investigate how these environmental factors controlled subsistence economies through the Holocene. The hypothesis tested was that relative sea level rise is a key factor influencing location and subsistence strategies of coastal communities throughout the Holocene and that, due to environmental conditions, these changes will be more evident in islands. The Isles of Scilly, located 27 miles off the south west coast of England, provide a good case study for the response of communities to marine inundations and environmental changes. This project aimed also to obtain a high resolution record of vegetation and storminess during the last 3000 years in Scilly, with a robust chronological setting, and also to offer an accurate shape of the coastline of Scilly since the early Holocene. Three terrestrial pollen stratigraphic sequences from the Isles of Scilly were obtained, covering the past 3000 years, from the two main wetland areas of Scilly (one in Higher Moors and two in Lower Moors) with the potential to reveal changing patterns of vegetation reflecting intensity and type of land use. Detailed palaeoenvironmental interpretation has been provided by high resolution pollen analysis. These pollen diagrams suggest that the landscape of Scilly has been an open landscape, heavily managed for both pastoral and arable agriculture since the Bronze Age. There is evidence that the climate during the Holocene period was highly varied. The occurrence of blown sand in the sample cores has been used as an indicator of past storm intensity, by high resolution particle size analysis and Loss-On-Ignition. The three cores show dissimilarities in the storminess indicator during the same periods. It is argued that this reflects that sand deposition and transport is highly site specific and controlled by topography, sediment availability, wind directions and vegetation cover. An important part of this thesis was to determine the impact of relative sea level rise in Scilly and the extent of the islands over time. A new sea level curve for Scilly has been generated through GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustments) using the Bradley et al (2011) method. Palaeogeography maps were produced applying the sea level curve to a new combined bathymetric and topographic model for Scilly. Scilly separated from the mainland around 11500 cal BP, and the islands obtained their modern configuration around 4000 cal BP. The palaeogeography, palaeoecological and the archaeological records of Scilly show that changes in the coastal configuration and storminess had little apparent influence on society from the 1st millennium AD into medieval times. Both, the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental record, have demonstrated that Scillonian societies had a strong resilience and were able to adapt to environmental changes by diversifying their economic strategies and taking advantage of the new conditions, such as new coastal margins. This adaptability was strong until the development of more complex societies and major land reduction conditions that probably led to a tipping point in resilience. There is no apparent discontinuity in land-use on Scilly during the last 3,000 years, although there have been important social and environmental changes.

Decadal variations in climate are important, because the magnitude of sustained decadal change is often much larger than the often discussed background trends. Climate variability at interannual and longer periods is most often discussed in the context of climate modes defined by sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. However, SLP and SST are not capable descriptors of ocean dynamics. The approximately two decades of global sea surface height (SSH) measurements from satellite altimetry reveal substantial low-frequency redistributions of heat and salt in the ocean, which may or may not be related to defined climate modes. In addition, coastal sea level responds directly to synoptic variability in the atmosphere, providing long records of weather events in coastal areas. The unifying idea in the following analyses is the value and versatility of SSH from altimetry and sea level from tide gauges for investigations of decadal climate variability. Three applications of SSH and coastal sea level to the study of decadal change demonstrate the merits of using sea level for investigations of oceanic and atmospheric, episodic and continuous processes. The analyses concern a multidecadal change in storminess along the coast of the Southeast U.S., basin-scale coherent sea level variations in the western boundary of the North Atlantic, and the low-frequency response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing in the Northeast Pacific.

Four continuous high-resolution peat records for the Holocene have been reconstructed across a ~300km transect from Shebster in Caithness to Yell in the Shetland Isles. These records describe the nature and extent of North Atlantic climate changes inferred from indicators of storminess and minerogenic aeolian dust, and are supported by radiogenic isotope analysis, tephrochronology and radiocarbon dating. The environmental changes at all four sites displays a significant degree of synchrony in response to changes in the position of the polar front jet (PFJ) stream and the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Bromine concentrations in the peat, derived from sea spray, are used to reconstruct storm frequency and storm intensity, and mire surface wetness is used as an indicator of longer-term climate shifts. The results suggest a strong link between positive phases of the NAO and storminess. Subtle differences between the bromine concentrations and the mire surface wetness suggest that high intensity but perhaps less frequent periods of storminess are not necessarily associated with a wetter climate. Atmospheric minerogenic dust concentrations are used to reconstruct large-scale climate changes across the wider North Atlantic region. The results suggest a sympathy between dust activity and periods of glacial advance and a negative index of the NAO. Radiogenic isotope analysis suggests that the smallest particles may originate from Iceland.