The spatial and temporal complexity of tropical cyclones (TCs) raises a number of scientific questions regarding their genesis, movement, intensification, and variability. In this dissertation, the principal goal is to determine the current state of predictability for each of these processes. To quantify the current extent of tropical cyclone predictability, we assess probabilistic forecasts from the most advanced global numerical weather prediction system to date, the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS). Using a new false alarm clustering technique to maximize the utility of the VarEPS, the ensemble system is shown to provide well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for TC genesis through a lead-time of one week, and pregenesis track forecasts with similar skill compared to the VarEPS's postgenesis track forecasts. To quantify the predictability of TCs on intraseasonal time scales, forecasts from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System (ECMFS) are examined for the North Atlantic Ocean. From this assessment, dynamically based forecasts from the ECMFS provide forecast skill exceeding climatology out to weeks three and four for portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and the Main Development Region. Forecast skill in these regions is traced to the model's ability to capture correctly the variability in deep-layer vertical wind shear, the relative frequency of easterly waves moving through these regions, and the intraseasonal modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. On interannual time scales, the predictability of TCs is examined by considering their relationship with tropical Atlantic easterly waves. First, a set of easterly wave climatologies for the CFS-R, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are developed using a new easterly wave-tracking algorithm. From the reanalysis-derived climatologies, a moderately positive and statistically significant relationship is seen with tropical Atlantic TCs. In relation to large-scale climate modes, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) exhibit the strongest positive covariability with Atlantic easterly wave frequency. Besides changes in the number of easterly waves, the intensification efficiency of easterly waves has also been evaluated. These findings offer a plausible physical explanation for the recent increase in the number of NATL TCs, as it has been concomitant with an increasing trend in both the number of tropical Atlantic easterly waves and intensification efficiency. The last component of this dissertation examines how the historical variability in U.S. landfalling TCs has impacted the annual TC tornado record. To reconcile the inhomogeneous, historical tornado record, two statistical tornado models, developed from a set of a priori predictors for TC tornado formation, are used to reconstruct the TC tornado climatology. While the synthetic TC tornado record reflects decadal scale variations in association with the AMO, a comparison of the current warm phase of the AMO with the previous warm phase period shows that the median number of tornadoes per Gulf TC landfall has significantly increased. This change likely reflects the increase in median TC size (by 35%) of Gulf landfalling TCs along with an increased frequency of large TCs at landfall.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 2009. / Title from title page screen (viewed on Mar. 19, 2010). Thesis advisor: Qiang He. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thèse (M.Eng.) -- Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 2003. / Bibliogr.: f. 182-187. Document électronique également accessible en format PDF. CaQCU

This study had as objective to show the importance of the spectral characteristics obtained by the physical properties of clouds measured by the METEOSAT geostationary satellite that helps on the understanding and prediction of severe storms. The study area was Brazil s southeastern because this region is located in a transition range between the mid-latitude temperate climate and the low latitudes warm climate and, therefore, becomes an area that has influence of various meteorological phenomena. With the strong topography and the proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, is a severe storms, strong winds and continuous rainfall favorable zone. It were used MSg datanot only by the images been captured from 15 in 15 minutes, but also because the SEVIRI radiometer on board of the European satellite has 12 multispectral channels that generate twenty times more information than the previous generation radiometers of the same. Were generated qualitative information of the atmospheric events in RGB color compositions, spectral response analysis and differences in the water vapor multispectral channels. The obtained results indicated that the RGB color composition (WV6.2μm - WV7.3μm; IR3.9μm - IR10.8μm; NIR1.6μm - VIS0.6μm) characterizes in a satisfactory way the convection in thunderstorms, showing when the system is in dissipation, stabilization or increasing, but is indicated only for storms occurring during the day and when analyzed the 3 RGB compositions (standard for air mass and convection) generate more information than analyzing only 1 of them. For the first case study, the values of the channel difference of the water vapor that were indicated as critical values with a trend to storm formation were of 4 to 13 ºC and for the second study case were of 8 to 13 °C. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Este trabalho teve por objetivo mostrar a importância que as características espectrais obtidas por meio das propriedades físicas das nuvens medidas pelos satélites geoestacionários METEOSAT que auxilia a previsão e compreensão de tempestades severas. A região de estudo foi o sudeste brasileiro por essa região encontrar-se em uma faixa de transição entre o clima temperado das latitudes médias e o clima quente das latitudes baixas e, por isso, se torna uma área que tem influência de vários fenômenos meteorológicos. Com a topografia acentuada e a proximidade com o Oceano Atlântico, é uma zona propicia a tempestades severas, vendavais e chuvas contínuas. Foram utilizados os dados do MSG não apenas pelas imagens serem captadas de 15 em 15 minutos, mas também, porque o radiômetro SEVIRI a bordo desse satélite europeu possui 12 canais multiespectrais que geram vinte vezes mais informações do que os radiômetros da geração anterior do mesmo. Foram geradas informações qualitativas dos eventos atmosféricos nas composições coloridas RGB, análise da resposta espectral e diferenças dos canais multiespectrais de vapor de água. Os resultados obtidos indicaram que a composição colorida RGB (WV6.2µm WV7.3µm; IR3.9µm IR10.8µm; NIR1.6µm VIS0.6µm) caracteriza de maneira satisfatória a convecção em tempestades, mostrando quando o sistema está-se dissipando, estabilizado ou intensificando, porém é indicada apenas para as tempestades que ocorrem durante o dia e quando analisada as 3 composições RGB (padrão, para massas de ar e convecção) geram mais informações do que analisando apenas 1 delas. Para o 1° estudo de caso os valores da diferença de canais do vapor de água que foram indicados como valores críticos propícios a formação de tempestades foram de 4 a 13°C e para o 2° estudo de caso foram de 8 a 13°C.

Cette thèse présente l’étude de la signature sédimentaire des submersions marines de tempête, dans le domaine rétrolittoral. Cette signature peut être extrêmement variable principalement en fonction des paramètres météo-océaniques menant à la submersion, de la morphologie de l’avant-côte et du domaine rétrolittoral et du disponible sédimentaire. Premièrement, l’étude de dépôts de washover mis en place lors de l’hiver 2013-2014, au sud de l’île d’Oléron, particulièrement énergétique en terme de climat de vagues, via une approche couplant processus hydrodynamiques et sédimentologie, a permis (1) de mettre en évidence l’importance des ondes infragravitaires, sur une côte dissipative à caractère macrotidal, dans le déclenchement de l’overwash de la barrière et la mise en place de washovers ; et de (2) proposer un nouveau modèle de faciès des dépôts de washover mis en place par des ondes infragravitaires combinées à la marée haute. Deuxièmement, la caractérisation de la signature sédimentaire des submersions marines en domaine rétrolittoral plus distal a montré que dans le contexte morphologique des marais de Charente-Maritime, les apports extrêmement faibles de sédiments en provenance du domaine continental, entre deux évènements de submersion marine, empêche la distinction des différents niveaux de submersion. Cependant cette étude a permis de valider des proxies tels que la microfaune ou l’isotopie de la matière organique pour l’identification de niveaux de submersion marine, permettant en partie de pallier aux limites inhérentes à l’anomalie granulométrique généralement utilisée. Cette étude a aussi permis la mise en évidence d’une variabilité dans la signature sédimentaire des submersions marines entre deux marais géomorphologiquement contrastés et plus ou moins exposés aux houles en provenance de l’océan. / This thesis presents the study of the sedimentary signature of marine submersions triggered by storms, in the back barrier area. This signature can be extremely variable mainly according to the meteo-oceanic parameters leading to the submersion of the back barrier area, the morphology of the nearshore, shore and back barrier area, and sediment availability. Firstly, the study of washover deposits emplaced during the winter of 2013-2014 on the southern end of the Oléron Island, characterized by an exceptional wave climate, via a coupled hydrodynamical and sedimentological approach, allowed us to (1) highlight the importance of infragravity waves, on macrotidal and dissipative coasts, in triggering the overwash and emplace washover deposits ; and (2) to suggest a new facies model of washover deposits emplaced by infragravity waves combined to high tides. Secondly, the characterization of the sedimentary signature of marine submersions in the distal part of the back barrier area showed that in the morphological context of the Charente-Maritime coastal marshes, the extremely limited amounts of sediments in provenance from the continent, between two submersion events, prevent the distinction of the different marine submersion sedimentary layers. Nevertheless, this study allowed validating new proxies as microfauna and organic matter isotopy for the identification of marine submersion sedimentary signature, allowing to work independently of the granulometric anomaly proxy and its known limits. This study also allowed evidencing the variability in the sedimentary signature of marine submersions in geomorphologically contrasted marshes and that this variability was linked to the ocean waves exposure.

This study presents a climatology of convectively-generated strong wind gusts (SWG) occurred in Southern Brazil in the 2005-2015 period. The selection of these events was based on surface hourly data from the operational network of automated weather stations (AWSs) operated by Brazil’s National Meteorological Institute (INMET, in portuguese) and geostacionary meteorological satellite imagery. The time series of the atmospheric variables recorded by the AWSs during the SWGs events were evaluated aiming at detecting cold pools and mesohighs. Proximity soundings and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) reanalysis data were used to assess the atmospheric environment during the occurence of the wind gust events. It was evalueted whether the atmospheric conditions highlight environments that discriminates the occurence of the SWG of those less intense. Moreover, a comparision was conducted among atmospheric profiles generated from CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis and profiles obtained from operational soundings taken in Southern Brazil in the 1996-2015 period. The results showed that INMET’s AWS were able to sample convectively-driven cold pools and mesohighs following the wind gusts. The highest frequency of SWGs was in the spring and summer months. Most SWGs were detected from mid-afternoon to overnight hours. The western portion of Southern Brazil displayed the largest frequency of SWGs. The median value of pressure variations following the SWG +4,6 hPa, with extreme values (95% percentile) reaching +8,2 hPa. The median value for temperature variations was -6,5 C, with extremes values below -13,0 C. Overall, the results showed that the atmospheric parameters demonstrate some discrimination between SWGs and weaker wind gusts. The Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (DCAPE) and the Derecho Composite Parameter (DCP) were the atmospheric parameters that better discriminate the atmospheric environment favorable to the occurence of SWGs. The comparision between atmospheric profiles generated from CFSR/CFSv2 data and observed soundings showed that the reanalysis reproduce well the thermodynamic parameters, but significantly underestimates the kinematic parameters. / Neste trabalho é apresentada uma climatologia de rajadas (RAJ) de vento convectivas intensas ocorridas na região sul do Brasil entre 2005 e 2015. A seleção destes eventos foi feita com base nos dados horários da rede operacional de estações meteorológicas automáticas (EMAs) de superfície do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) e imagens de satélites meteorológicos geoestacionários. As séries temporais das variáveis atmosféricas registradas pelas EMAs durante os eventos de RAJ foram avaliadas para detectar piscinas de ar frio e mesoaltas. O ambiente atmosférico durante a ocorrência das RAJ foi analisando utilizando-se perfis atmosféricos extraídos de sondagens de proximidade e de dados de reanálise do Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) e Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Avaliou-se se as condições atmosféricas ressaltam ambientes que discriminem a ocorrência das rajadas convectivas mais intensas daquelas menos intensas. Foi conduzida também uma comparação entre os perfis atmosféricos extraídos da reanálise CFSR/CFSv2 e os perfis obtidos de sondagens operacionais realizadas no sul do Brasil para o período entre 1996 e 2015. Os resultados mostraram que as EMAs-INMET conseguiram amostrar as piscinas de ar frio e mesoaltas que acompanham as rajadas convectivas. As rajadas intensas ocorreram com mais frequência na primavera e verão, e predominantemente entre o final da tarde e a madrugada. Em geral, houve uma ligeira tendência para uma maior ocorrência de RAJ nas EMAs-INMET do setor oeste da Região Sul. A mediana das variações de pressão acompanhando a RAJ foi de +4,6 hPa, com valores mais extremos (percentil 95%) atingindo +8,2 hPa. A mediana das variações de temperatura foi -6,5 C, com valores extremos abaixo de -13,0 C. De maniera geral, os parâmetros atmosféricos conseguiram demonstrar alguma discriminação entre a classe de RAJ intensas e as rajadas mais fracas. O Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (DCAPE) e o Derecho Composite Parameter (DCP) foram os parâmtros que melhor discriminaram ambientes atmosféricos favoráveis à ocorrência de rajadas de vento intensas. A comparação entre reanálise CFSR/CFSv2 e sondagens observadas mostrou que a reanálise reproduziu bem os parâmetros termodinâmicos, mas subestimou significativamente os parâmtros cinemáticos.

Submitted by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2018-06-21T22:15:21Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Dissertacao_Marcelo_Felix_Alonso.pdf: 3066911 bytes, checksum: c05f60df7aea1fe1e26c060cd18eb54c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2018-06-21T22:44:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Dissertacao_Marcelo_Felix_Alonso.pdf: 3066911 bytes, checksum: c05f60df7aea1fe1e26c060cd18eb54c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-21T22:44:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Dissertacao_Marcelo_Felix_Alonso.pdf: 3066911 bytes, checksum: c05f60df7aea1fe1e26c060cd18eb54c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-02-15 / Sem bolsa / O objetivo geral dessa dissertação de mestrado foi estudar a influência das Parametrizações de Convecção na simulação de eventos severos no Brasil, a fim de avaliar o seu desempenho na previsão regional de tempestades potencialmente destruidoras. Com esse raciocínio, comparou-se a precipitação observada e simulada, estudaram-se as reservas de energia envolvidas no processo da convecção, analisou-se como o ambiente termodinâmico e dinâmico em grande escala foi modificado e estudaram-se maneiras de melhorar a parametrização convectiva de Grell a fim de propiciar ainda mais confiabilidade à previsão numérica do tempo, utilizando o modelo regional de mesoescala BRAMS 2.0. Para isso, analisaram-se dois casos de sistemas precipitantes, influenciados por regimes distintos (extratropical e tropical). Não obstante, ainda fez-se uma análise da confiabilidade da Parametrização Convectiva de Grell na simulação da precipitação para o mês de maio de 2005, no Rio Grande do Sul. Evidencia-se a superioridade da Parametrização Convectiva de Grell na simulação da magnitude da precipitação, em relação à Parametrização Convectiva de Kuo. Porém, conclui-se que a Parametrização Convectiva de Grell tende a superestimar o dado observado de precipitação acumulada. Nos dois casos de convecção, pôde-se obter uma boa eficiência da Parametrização convectiva de Grell, em relação à magnitude da precipitação diária acumulada, diminuindo-se o raio da nuvem, aumentando o entranhamento de massa no sistema. Os experimentos cuja peculiaridade é o uso da Parametrização Convectiva de Grell, simularam com melhor precisão as características termodinâmicas do ambiente e representaram com boa exatidão os aspectos dinâmicos favoráveis à gênese e manutenção de tempestades mais severas, fornecendo subsídio no que se refere ao uso da modelagem regional como estratégia adicional na prevenção de fenômenos potencialmente destruidores. Percebe-se, analisando o caso II, que os dados de inicialização do modelo tiveram um profundo impacto na simulação da Linha de Instabilidade. Os experimentos iniciados com os dados de Re-análise, do NCEP, cuja resolução é de 250 km, organizaram as bandas convectivas numa configuração mais parecida com o que foi observado. Todavia, os experimentos iniciados com o modelo T126L28, do CPTEC, cuja resolução é de 100 km, geraram núcleos convectivos em áreas onde não foi observada atividade convectiva. / The general objective of this purpose of was to study the Convection Parameterization influence in the Brazilian severe events simulation, in order to evaluate its performance in the regional severe storm forecast. It was compared observed and simulated precipitation, the energy budghets envolved in the convection process had been studied, were analyzed the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic modification and had studied ways to improve the Grell convective parameterization for a better weather numerical forecast, using BRAMS 2.0 model. For this, two cases of convective systems had been analyzed, influenced by regimes distinct (extratropical and tropical). Still, we made an analysis of the Grell Convective Parameterization behavior in the precipitation simulation for May 2005, in the Rio Grande Do Sul state. The accumulated precipitation, simulated from experiments that use the Grell scheme, better represented the rain intensity, but overestimated the observed data. The simulations with Kuo scheme underestimated the observed data. The inicialization data has a full influence in the squall line simulation. The LIGRELLA/LIKUOA experiments better simulated the spatial coverage of squall line, with relation the GPCP satellite data. However, the LIGRELLB/LIKUOB experiments simulated maximum precipitation in regions with any observed rain, including, LIKUOB simulated a squall line with propagation opposing the observed.

Eventos de brisa marítima (BM) são comuns na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP). No verão, em particular, estão associados com tempestades, chuvas, rajadas de vento, granizo e descargas atmosféricas intensas na RMSP. Utilizou-se o método de OLIVEIRA e SILVA DIAS (1982) para identificar os eventos de BM. Todos os eventos de BM entre 2005 e 2008 foram analisados por meio de medições de superfície, altitude, radares meteorológicos, satélite e modelagem numérica da atmosfera. Em geral, a penetração da frente de BM na RMSP ocorre entre o meio e o fim da tarde com aumento da temperatura do ponto de orvalho. Ainda, o ambiente urbano mais aquecido tende a intensificar as tempestades que podem produzir enchentes, alagamentos, queda de árvores, entre outros impactos socioeconômicos muito significativos. A partição anual pluviométrica devido a BM foi estimado com o radar meteorológico de São Paulo. Os resultados indicam um núcleo de máxima precipitação acumulada com pico de 600 mm sobre a RMSP, muito maior que no entorno dessa. A modelagem com o ARPS permitiu simular condições médias espaciais em baixos, médios e altos níveis de diversas variáveis dos eventos analisados. As simulações de controle e específicas com ARPS sugerem um impacto significativo da cobertura do solo na distribuição espacial da precipitação. As análises foram complementadas com medições do radar meteorológico MXPOL e demonstram a importância desse tipo de sensoriamento remoto na detecção e previsão a curtíssimo prazo da penetração de BM, com alta resolução espaço-temporal. / Sea breeze events (SB) are common in Metropolitan area at São Paulo (MASP). Particularly, in the summer, SB triggers over MASP deep convection, heavy rainfall, wind gusts, hail and lightning. OLIVEIRA and SILVA DIAS (1982) method was used to identify the SB events. SB events between 2005 and 2008 were analysed by means of surface and upper air measurements, weather radar, satellite and numerical modelling. In general, the SB front penetrates in MASP between midafternoon and evening increasing dew point. Moreover, the warmer urban environment tends to intensify storms that produce flooding, falling trees, among other large socioeconomic impacts. The annual rainfall partition due to SB was estimated using the São Paulo weather radar. The results indicate a core of maximum rainfall accumulation of 600 mm over MASP, much larger than that in the vicinity. The modelling with ARPS allowed simulate conditions spatial average in low, medium and upper levels of several variables of the analysed events. Moreover, the ARPS system was used to simulate SB with control and specific runs. Results suggest significant impact of surface cover on rainfall distribution. MXPOL weather radar measurements of SB were important in detecting and nowcasting SB inflow at very high spatial and temporal resolution.

Solar transient eruptions are the main cause of interplanetary-magnetospheric disturbances leading to the phenomena known as geomagnetic storms. Eruptive solar events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are currently considered the main cause of geomagnetic storms (GMS). GMS are strong perturbations of the Earth’s magnetic field that can affect space-borne and ground-based technological systems. The solar-terrestrial impact on modern technological systems is commonly known as Space Weather. Part of the research study described in this thesis was to investigate and establish a relationship between GMS (periods with Dst ≤ −50 nT) and their associated solar and interplanetary (IP) properties during solar cycle (SC) 23. Solar and IP geoeffective properties associated with or without CMEs were investigated and used to qualitatively characterise both intense and moderate storms. The results of this analysis specifically provide an estimate of the main sources of GMS during an average 11-year solar activity period. This study indicates that during SC 23, the majority of intense GMS (83%) were associated with CMEs, while the non-associated CME storms were dominant among moderate storms. GMS phenomena are the result of a complex and non-linear chaotic system involving the Sun, the IP medium, the magnetosphere and ionosphere, which make the prediction of these phenomena challenging. This thesis also explored the predictability of both the occurrence and strength of GMS. Due to their nonlinear driving mechanisms, the prediction of GMS was attempted by the use of neural network (NN) techniques, known for their non-linear modelling capabilities. To predict the occurrence of storms, a combination of solar and IP parameters were used as inputs in the NN model that proved to predict the occurrence of GMS with a probability of 87%. Using the solar wind (SW) and IP magnetic field (IMF) parameters, a separate NN-based model was developed to predict the storm-time strength as measured by the global Dst and ap geomagnetic indices, as well as by the locally measured K-index. The performance of the models was tested on data sets which were not part of the NN training process. The results obtained indicate that NN models provide a reliable alternative method for empirically predicting the occurrence and strength of GMS on the basis of solar and IP parameters. The demonstrated ability to predict the geoeffectiveness of solar and IP transient events is a key step in the goal towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / The development of regional ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) models has contributed to understanding the behavior of ionospheric parameters and the coupling of the ionosphere to space weather activities on both local and global scales. In the past several decades, the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems Service (GNSS) networks of dual frequency receiver data have been applied to develop global and regional models of ionospheric TEC. These models were mainly developed in the Northern Hemisphere where there are dense network of ground based GPS receivers for regional data coverage. Such efforts have been historically rare over the African region, and have only recently begun. This thesis reports the investigation of the effect of mid-latitude magnetic storms on TEC over South Africa for portions of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. The MAGIC package was used to estimate TEC over South Africa during Post Solar Maximum, Solar Minimum, and Post Solar Minimum periods. It is found that TEC is largely determined by the diurnal cycle of solar forcing and subsequent relaxation, but effects due to storms can be determined