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1	Determining Reserves in Low Permeability and Layered Reservoirs Using the Minimum Terminal Decline Rate Method: How Good are the Predictions? McMillan, Marcia Donna 2011 May 1900 (has links) This thesis evaluates the applicability of forecasting production from low permeability and layered tight gas wells using the Arps hyperbolic equation at earlier times and then switching to the exponential form of the equation at a predetermined minimum decline rate. This methodology is called the minimum terminal decline rate method. Two separate completion types have been analyzed. The first is horizontal completions with multi-stage hydraulic fractures while the second is vertical fractured wells in layered formations, completed with hydraulic fractures. For both completion types both simulated data and real world well performance histories have been evaluated using differing minimum terminal decline rates and the benefit of increasing portions of production history to make predictions. The application of the minimum terminal decline rate method to the simulated data in this study (3 percent minimum decline applied to multiple fractured horizontal wells MFHW- and 7 percent applied to vertical fractured layered wells) gave high errors for some simulations within the first two years. Once additional production data is considered in making predictions, the errors in estimated ultimate recovery and in remaining reserves is significantly reduced. This result provides a note of caution, when using the minimum decline rate method for forecasting using small quantities of production history. The evaluation of real world data using the minimum terminal decline rate method introduces other inaccuracies such as poor data quality, low data frequency, operational changes which affect the production profile and workovers / re-stimulations which require a restart of production forecasting process. Real well data for MFHW comes from the Barnett Shale completions of the type which have been widely utilized since 2004. There is insufficient production history from real wells to determine an appropriate minimum terminal decline rate. In the absence of suitable analogs for the determination of the minimum terminal decline rate it would be impossible to correctly apply this methodology. Real well data for vertical fractured layered wells from the Carthage Cotton Valley field indicate that for wells similar to Conoco operated Panola County wells a feasible decline rate is between 5 percent and 10 percent. Further if a consistent production trend and with more than 2 years of production history are used to forecast, the EUR can be predicted to within plus/minus 10 percent and remaining reserves to within plus/minus 15 percent. Minimum Decline Rate modified arps method
2	Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs with Emphasis on the Duong Method Joshi, Krunal Jaykant 2012 August 1900 (has links) There is a huge demand in the industry to forecast production in shale gas reservoirs accurately. There are many methods including volumetric, Decline Curve Analysis (DCA), analytical simulation and numerical simulation. Each one of these methods has its advantages and disadvantages, but only the DCA technique can use readily available production data to forecast rapidly and to an extent accurately. The DCA methods in use in the industry such as the Arps method had originally been developed for Boundary dominated flow (BDF) wells but it has been observed in shale reservoirs the predominant flow regime is transient flow. Therefore it was imperative to develop newer models to match and forecast transient flow regimes. The SEDM/SEPD, the Duong model and the Arps with a minimum decline rate are models that have the ability to match and forecast wells with transient flow followed by boundary flow. I have revised the Duong model to forecast better than the original model. I have also observed a certain variation of the Duong model proves to be a robust model for most of the well cases and flow regimes. The modified Duong has been shown to work best compared to other deterministic models in most cases. For grouped datasets the SPED & Duong models forecast accurately while the Modified Arps does a poor job. Decline curve Duong SEPD Arps unconventional shale gas
3	Análise da circulação de brisa marítima e seus impactos sobre a precipitação na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo por meio do modelo ARPS / Sea breeze circulation analysis ant its impacts over Metropolitan area of São Paulo precipitation using ARPS model Vemado, Felipe 11 May 2012 (has links) Eventos de brisa marítima (BM) são comuns na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP). No verão, em particular, estão associados com tempestades, chuvas, rajadas de vento, granizo e descargas atmosféricas intensas na RMSP. Utilizou-se o método de OLIVEIRA e SILVA DIAS (1982) para identificar os eventos de BM. Todos os eventos de BM entre 2005 e 2008 foram analisados por meio de medições de superfície, altitude, radares meteorológicos, satélite e modelagem numérica da atmosfera. Em geral, a penetração da frente de BM na RMSP ocorre entre o meio e o fim da tarde com aumento da temperatura do ponto de orvalho. Ainda, o ambiente urbano mais aquecido tende a intensificar as tempestades que podem produzir enchentes, alagamentos, queda de árvores, entre outros impactos socioeconômicos muito significativos. A partição anual pluviométrica devido a BM foi estimado com o radar meteorológico de São Paulo. Os resultados indicam um núcleo de máxima precipitação acumulada com pico de 600 mm sobre a RMSP, muito maior que no entorno dessa. A modelagem com o ARPS permitiu simular condições médias espaciais em baixos, médios e altos níveis de diversas variáveis dos eventos analisados. As simulações de controle e específicas com ARPS sugerem um impacto significativo da cobertura do solo na distribuição espacial da precipitação. As análises foram complementadas com medições do radar meteorológico MXPOL e demonstram a importância desse tipo de sensoriamento remoto na detecção e previsão a curtíssimo prazo da penetração de BM, com alta resolução espaço-temporal. / Sea breeze events (SB) are common in Metropolitan area at São Paulo (MASP). Particularly, in the summer, SB triggers over MASP deep convection, heavy rainfall, wind gusts, hail and lightning. OLIVEIRA and SILVA DIAS (1982) method was used to identify the SB events. SB events between 2005 and 2008 were analysed by means of surface and upper air measurements, weather radar, satellite and numerical modelling. In general, the SB front penetrates in MASP between midafternoon and evening increasing dew point. Moreover, the warmer urban environment tends to intensify storms that produce flooding, falling trees, among other large socioeconomic impacts. The annual rainfall partition due to SB was estimated using the São Paulo weather radar. The results indicate a core of maximum rainfall accumulation of 600 mm over MASP, much larger than that in the vicinity. The modelling with ARPS allowed simulate conditions spatial average in low, medium and upper levels of several variables of the analysed events. Moreover, the ARPS system was used to simulate SB with control and specific runs. Results suggest significant impact of surface cover on rainfall distribution. MXPOL weather radar measurements of SB were important in detecting and nowcasting SB inflow at very high spatial and temporal resolution. ARPS ARPS Brisa marítima Ilha de calor São Paulo storms Sea breeze tempestades em São Paulo urban heat island
4	Análise da circulação de brisa marítima e seus impactos sobre a precipitação na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo por meio do modelo ARPS / Sea breeze circulation analysis ant its impacts over Metropolitan area of São Paulo precipitation using ARPS model Felipe Vemado 11 May 2012 (has links) Eventos de brisa marítima (BM) são comuns na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP). No verão, em particular, estão associados com tempestades, chuvas, rajadas de vento, granizo e descargas atmosféricas intensas na RMSP. Utilizou-se o método de OLIVEIRA e SILVA DIAS (1982) para identificar os eventos de BM. Todos os eventos de BM entre 2005 e 2008 foram analisados por meio de medições de superfície, altitude, radares meteorológicos, satélite e modelagem numérica da atmosfera. Em geral, a penetração da frente de BM na RMSP ocorre entre o meio e o fim da tarde com aumento da temperatura do ponto de orvalho. Ainda, o ambiente urbano mais aquecido tende a intensificar as tempestades que podem produzir enchentes, alagamentos, queda de árvores, entre outros impactos socioeconômicos muito significativos. A partição anual pluviométrica devido a BM foi estimado com o radar meteorológico de São Paulo. Os resultados indicam um núcleo de máxima precipitação acumulada com pico de 600 mm sobre a RMSP, muito maior que no entorno dessa. A modelagem com o ARPS permitiu simular condições médias espaciais em baixos, médios e altos níveis de diversas variáveis dos eventos analisados. As simulações de controle e específicas com ARPS sugerem um impacto significativo da cobertura do solo na distribuição espacial da precipitação. As análises foram complementadas com medições do radar meteorológico MXPOL e demonstram a importância desse tipo de sensoriamento remoto na detecção e previsão a curtíssimo prazo da penetração de BM, com alta resolução espaço-temporal. / Sea breeze events (SB) are common in Metropolitan area at São Paulo (MASP). Particularly, in the summer, SB triggers over MASP deep convection, heavy rainfall, wind gusts, hail and lightning. OLIVEIRA and SILVA DIAS (1982) method was used to identify the SB events. SB events between 2005 and 2008 were analysed by means of surface and upper air measurements, weather radar, satellite and numerical modelling. In general, the SB front penetrates in MASP between midafternoon and evening increasing dew point. Moreover, the warmer urban environment tends to intensify storms that produce flooding, falling trees, among other large socioeconomic impacts. The annual rainfall partition due to SB was estimated using the São Paulo weather radar. The results indicate a core of maximum rainfall accumulation of 600 mm over MASP, much larger than that in the vicinity. The modelling with ARPS allowed simulate conditions spatial average in low, medium and upper levels of several variables of the analysed events. Moreover, the ARPS system was used to simulate SB with control and specific runs. Results suggest significant impact of surface cover on rainfall distribution. MXPOL weather radar measurements of SB were important in detecting and nowcasting SB inflow at very high spatial and temporal resolution. ARPS Brisa marítima Ilha de calor tempestades em São Paulo ARPS São Paulo storms Sea breeze urban heat island
5	Comparison of Emperical Decline Curve Analysis for Shale Wells Kanfar, Mohammed Sami 16 December 2013 (has links) This study compares four recently developed decline curve methods and the traditional Arps or Fetkovich approach. The four methods which are empirically formulated for shale and tight gas wells are: 1. Power Law Exponential Decline (PLE). 2. Stretched Exponential Decline (SEPD). 3. Duong Method. 4. Logistic Growth Model (LGM). Each method has different tuning parameters and equation forms. The main objective of this work is to determine the best method(s) in terms of Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) accuracy, goodness of fit, and ease of matching. In addition, these methods are compared against each other at different production times in order to understand the effect of production time on forecasts. As a part of validation process, all methods are benchmarked against simulation. This study compares the decline methods to four simulation cases which represent the common shale declines observed in the field. Shale wells, which are completed with horizontal wells and multiple traverse highly-conductive hydraulic fractures, exhibit long transient linear flow. Based on certain models, linear flow is preceded by bilinear flow if natural fractures are present. In addition to this, linear flow is succeeded by Boundary Dominated Flow (BDF) decline when pressure wave reaches boundary. This means four declines are possible, hence four simulation cases are required for comparison. To facilitate automatic data fitting, a non-linear regression program was developed using excel VBA. The program optimizes the Least-Square (LS) objective function to find the best fit. The used optimization algorithm is the Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm (LMA) and it is used because of its robustness and ease of use. This work shows that all methods forecast different EURs and some fit certain simulation cases better than others. In addition, no method can forecast EUR accurately without reaching BDF. Using this work, engineers can choose the best method to forecast EUR after identifying the simulation case that is most analogous to their field wells. The VBA program and the matching procedure presented here can help engineers automate these methods into their forecasting sheets. Shale Decline Curve Analysis Empirical Duong Power Law Stretched Exponential Logistic Growth Model Linear Bilinear Arps Fetkovich Production Comparison PLE LGM SEPD EUR ultimate recovery
6	Rudolf von Arps-Aubert Müller-Kelwing, Karin 04 June 2021 (has links) No description available. info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/943 ddc:943 Arps-Aubert; Rudolf von; Kunsthistoriker
7	Breaking The Silence: Exploring the Narratives of Survivors of Female Genital Cutting in Kenya Chumbow, Mary-Magdalene Ngum 05 June 2023 (has links) No description available. African History African Literature African Studies Behavioral Sciences Behaviorial Sciences Black Studies Communication Cultural Anthropology Demographics Demography Ethnic Studies Families and Family Life Gender Gender Studies Geography Individual and Family Studies Mass Communications Mass Media Multimedia Communications Public Health Public Health Education Regional Studies Social Research Social Structure Social Work Womens Studies FGM Female Circumcision Female Genital Mutilation FGC Female Genital Cutting Kenya Africana Womanism Africa Alternative Rites of Passage ARPs Kenyan Women Anti-FGM Women of African Descent Traditional Practices SGBV GBV Sexual and Gender-Based Violence Gender-Based Violence

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