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EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF INPUT AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ON STREAMFLOW SIMULATIONS IN LARGE UNDER-INSTRUMENTED BASINSDemaria, Eleonora Maria January 2010 (has links)
In data-poor regions around the world, particularly in less-privileged countries, hydrologists cannot always take advantage of available hydrological models to simulate a hydrological system due to the lack of reliable measurements of hydrological variables, in particular rainfall and streamflows, needed to implement and evaluate these models. Rainfall estimates obtained with remotely deployed sensors constitute an excellent source of precipitation for these basins, however they are prone to errors that can potentially affect hydrologic simulations. Concurrently, limited access to streamflow measurements does not allow a detailed representation of the system's structure through parameter estimation techniques. This dissertation presents multiple studies that evaluate the usefulness of remotely sensed products for different hydrological applications and the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to parameter uncertainty across basins with different hydroclimatic characteristics with the ultimate goal of increasing the applicability of land surface models in ungauged basins, particularly in South America. Paper 1 presents a sensitivity analysis of daily simulated streamflows to changes in model parameters along a hydroclimatic gradient. Parameters controlling the generation of surface and subsurface flow were targeted for the study. Results indicate that the sensitivity is strongly controlled by climate and that a more parsimonious version of the model could be implemented. Paper 2 explores how errors in satellite-estimated precipitation, due to infrequent satellite measurements, propagate through the simulation of a basin's hydrological cycle and impact the characteristics of peak streamflows within the basin. Findings indicate that nonlinearities in the hydrological cycle can introduce bias in simulated streamflows with error-corrupted precipitation. They also show that some characteristics of peak discharges are not conditioned by errors in satellite-estimated precipitation at a daily time step. Paper 3 evaluates the dominant sources of error in three satellite products when representing convective storms and how shifts in the location of the storm affect simulated peak streamflows in the basin. Results indicate that satellite products show some deficiencies retrieving convective processes and that a ground bias correction can mitigate these deficiencies but without sacrificing the potential for real-time hydrological applications. Finally, spatially shifted precipitation fields affect the magnitude of the peaks, however, its impact on the timing of the peaks is dampened out by the system's response at a daily time scale.
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Assessment of Uncertainty in Flow Model Parameters, Channel Hydraulic Properties, and Rainfall Data of a Lumped Watershed ModelDiaz-Ramirez, Jairo Nelvedir 11 August 2007 (has links)
Among other sources of uncertainties in hydrologic modeling, spatial rainfall variability, channel hydraulic variability, and model parameter uncertainty were evaluated. The Monte Carlo and Harr methods were used to assess 90% certainty bounds on simulated flows. The lumped watershed model, Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN ? HSPF, was used to simulate streamflow at the outlet of the Luxapallila Creek watershed in Mississippi and Alabama. Analysis of parameter uncertainty propagation on streamflow simulations from 12 HSPF parameters was accomplished using 5,000 Monte Carlo random samples and 24 Harr selected points for each selected parameter. Spatial rainfall variability propagation on simulated flows was studied using six random grid point sets of Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) rainfall data (i.e., 109, 86, 58, 29, 6, and 2 grid points) from the baseline scenario (115 NEXRAD grid points). Uncertainty in channel hydraulic properties was assessed comparing the baseline scenario (USGS FTABLE) versus the EPA RF1 FTABLE scenario. The difference between the baseline scenario and the remaining scenarios in this study was evaluated using two criteria: the percentage of observed flows within the HSPF 90% certainty bounds (Reliability) and the width of the HSPF 90% certainty bounds (Sharpness). Daily observed streamflow data were clustered into three groups to assess the model performance by each class: below normal, normal, and above normal flows. The parameter uncertainty propagation results revealed that the higher the model Sharpness the lower the model Reliability. The model Sharpness and Reliability results using 2 NEXRAD grid points were markedly different from those results using the remaining NEXRAD data sets. The hydraulic property variability of the main channel affected storm event paths at the watershed outlet, especially the time to peak flow and recessing limbs of storm events. The comparison showed that Harr?s method could be an appropriate initial indicator of parameter uncertainty propagation on streamflow simulations, in particular for hydrology models with several parameters. Parameter uncertainty was still more important than those sources of uncertainty accomplished in this study because all of the median relative errors of model Reliability and Sharpness were lower than +/- 100%.
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