Thesis advisor: Noah Snyder / Increasing attention has been drawn to the need for reliable streamflow estimates at ungaged locations under a range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. Climate projections for the northeastern United States over the 21st century--which include significant increases in temperature and precipitation--could have broad impacts on streamflows, potentially reducing the accuracies of existing streamflow models for the region. This thesis investigates recent changes in daily flow-durations in southern New England, and examines their influence on the reliability of the low-flow models for Massachusetts presented by Ries and Friesz (2000). An analysis of discharge data collected at gaging sites through water year 2012 revealed increases in nearly all flow durations at sites across southern New England since the mid-20th century, whereas very low flows (quantiles at or above the 95-percent exceedance probability) generally showed decreases, especially since the 1990s. Twenty-year moving streamflow quantiles at each of ten selected exceedance probabilities were examined for the periods of record of 16 streamflow-gaging stations in southern New England. The beginning of water year 1992 appeared to mark an inflection point in low-flow quantiles, before which very low flows were steady or increasing, and after which these flows showed near-universal decreases. While the observed peak in 20-year low-flow quantiles around 1992 may be due to the statistical method used to calculate the quantile trends, the inflection point could also be an indicator of when increasing evapotranspiration surpassed increasing precipitation as the principal climatic driver of changes in low flows in southern New England. The general upward translation of the flow-duration curve observed over the last 60 years is very likely linked to increases in annual precipitation during this period, while the decreases in very low flows are likely due to changes in climatic variables (increasing summer temperatures and evapotranspiration rates), and amplified by anthropogenic factors (greater areas of impervious surfaces and increasing rates of surface- and ground-water withdrawal). The data suggest that increasing precipitation rates have already caused the Ries and Friesz (2000) equations for the median low flows (Q50 to Q75) to become biased towards underestimation, and decreases in very low flows threaten to render the models for these flows biased towards overestimation in the coming decades. The streamflow quantile trends (for both the entire period of record of the gaging stations and just the post-1992 period) for each of the ten flow-durations of interest were extended into the future to the point where the corresponding Ries and Friesz (2000) model would fail (when actual flow durations would be outside the 90-percent prediction intervals for the estimated flows for greater than 10% of sites). The models for the lowest streamflows are estimated to lose validity by as early as 2018. Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on streamflow characteristics in southern New England over the 21st century, and the results of this study indicate that the Ries and Freisz (2000) low-flow models should be reformulated using more recent streamflow data within the next decade, and validated every 20 years thereafter to ensure their accuracies are maintained despite the effects of regional nonstationarity. / Thesis (MS) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Earth and Environmental Sciences.

Com o objetivo de comparar o balanço hídrico e características do deflúvio e, também, de realizar a calibragem das micro bacias hidrográficas experimentais B e D, do Laboratório de Hidrologia Florestal Eng.º Agr. Walter Emmerich, estudou-se o comportamento hidrológico das duas microbacias durante um período de seis anos. A área do experimento está localizada à leste do Estado de São Paulo, no Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar - Núcleo Cunha, no limite entre a Serra do Mar e o Planalto Atlântico. O clima da região é úmido, com fortes influências dos efeitos orográficos da Serra do Mar. A precipitação média anual é superior a 2000 mm, podendo o ano hídrico ser dividido em um período caracterizado como úmido, que se estende de outubro a março, e um período seco, que compreende os meses de abril a setembro. Com área de 36,68 ha e 56,04 ha respectivamente, as microbacias B e D estão recobertas com vegetação secundária de Mata Atlântica, em solos do tipo Latossolo Vermelho Amarelo predominantemente, estabelecidos sobre rochas graníticas. No período compreendido entre outubro de 1986 a setembro de 1992, monitorou-se as duas microbacias, efetuando-se medições contínuas das descargas e das precipitações pluviométricas. Os componentes do balanço hídrico anual determinados foram a precipitação e o deflúvio. Pela diferença entre ambos, estimou-se a evapotranspiração, desconsiderando-se as variações de armazenamento de água no solo. As características do deflúvio estudadas foram as curvas de duração de fluxo do deflúvio diário, o escoamento direto e as taxas de pico de vazão de hidrogramas. Utilizando o método das microbacias pareadas, correlacionou-se o deflúvio anual, o deflúvio mensal, a quantidade de escoamento direto e o pico de vazão das microbacias B e D, por meio de regressões lineares, resultando em equações de calibragem das microbacias. A microbacia D foi considerada como controle no experimento. A média anual da precipitação, do deflúvio e da evapotranspiração foram, respectivamente: microbacia B - 2012 mm, 1473 mm e 539 mm; microbacia D - 2158 mm, 1555 mm e 603 mm. Em termos percentuais, a evapotranspiração das microbacias é da ordem de 30% da precipitação anual. O deflúvio médio diário das microbacias durante os períodos seco e úmido foram, respectivamente: microbacia B - 3,4 mm e 4,7 mm; microbacia D - 3,8 mm e 4,8 mm. Os fatores de resposta médios das microbacias B e D, calculados pelo quociente entre o volume de escoamento direto e a precipitação, estimados a partir de 88 hidrogramas, foram 0,23 e 0,12, respectivamente. Frente às análises efetuadas no presente trabalho pode-se concluir: 1) as microbacias são conservativas quanto ao consumo de água. Em comparação com outras florestas de clima tropical, a evapotranspiração anual da vegetação de mata atlântica do local ocorre a taxas consideravelmente menores; 2) as microbacias apresentam um regime de vazão bastante regular durante todo o ano hídrico. Em média, a produção de água no período das chuvas supera em apenas 10% a produção hídrica no período mais seco. O escoamento base é o principal componente do fluxo diário de água dos rios, abrangendo aproximadamente 90% do tempo de descarga na curva de duração de fluxo das microbacias. A contribuição do escoamento direto para o deflúvio diário restringe-se a cerca de 10% de todo o tempo do escoamento; 3) há uma diferença marcante entre a resposta hidrológica das duas microbacias devido às precipitações, em função da época do ano. No período das chuvas a proporção de escoamento direto é superior à verificada no período mais seco. As áreas geradoras de escoamento direto nas duas microbacias aumentam com a passagem da estação seca para a estação úmida e também com o incremento das chuvas. Embora pouco comum, a área mínima de contribuição do escoamento direto pode corresponder a 60% da superfície das microbacias; 4) o volume de escoamento direto da microbacia B, em geral, supera o da microbacia D. Uma maior proporção da superfície da primeira microbacia contribui para o escoamento rápido comparativamente à microbacia D. Para a maior parte das chuvas do período seco, não mais que 10% da microbacia D produz escoamento direto, enquanto na microbacia B, de 20% a 30% da superfície gera escoamento rápido. No período das chuvas, é bastante frequente que 30% da microbacia D participe na formação do hidrograma, enquanto 30% a 50% da área da microbacia B usualmente produz este componente do deflúvio; 5) há evidências de que a resposta hidrológica às chuvas, mais intensa na microbacia B que na microbacia D, decorre principalmente, da presença de grandes extensões de solos rasos localizados em terrenos de grande inclinação, concentrados desde as partes mais elevadas até as porções inferiores das vertentes da microbacia B; 6) com relação à calibragem das microbacias, as equações determinadas para o deflúvio anual e para o deflúvio mensal, com reduzidos erros padrão de estimativa, podem ser utilizadas para avaliação de um eventual tratamento experimental, ao contrário dos modelos obtidos para estimativa do volume de escoamento direto e do pico de vazão. Recomenda-se a inclusão de mais observações na tentativa de melhorar as equações para as duas últimas características do deflúvio. / Our main target is the comparison of the water balance and the streamflow characteristics, besides achieaving the calibration of B and D experimental watersheds in Walter Emmerich Hydrologic Laboratory. We have studied the hydrologic behaviour of the two small watersheds for six years. The area of the experiment is in the east of São Paulo State, in Serra do Mar State Park in the border between Serra do Mar and Atlantic Plateau, at Brazil. It\' s a wet area with hard influences of the orographic effects from Serra do Mar. The annual average precipitation is above 2,000 mm, and the water year can be divided in a wet period - from October to March - and a dry period - from April to September. There are 36.68 ha and 56.04 ha in the B and D small watersheds, respectively. They are covered with Mata Atlântica forest, principally in Red Yellow Latosols, in granite. From October 1986 to September 1992, we monitored the two watersheds, measuring discharge and precipitation continuously. The measured components of the annual water year were the precipitation and streamflow. From the difference between them we estimated the evapotranspiration, negleting the changes in soil moisture storage. The studied streamflow characteristics were: flow duration curves of daily streamflow, stormflow and peak flow rates of hydrographs. Applying the paired catchment method by means of linear regressions, we correlated the annual streamflow, monthly streamflow, the amount of stormflow and the peak discharge for the two watersheds, resulting in calibration equations. The D watershed was used as the control in the experiment. The mean annual precipitation, streamflow and evapotranspiration were respectively: B watershed - 2,012 mm; 1,473 mm and 539 mm; D watershed - 2,158 mm; 1,555 mm and 603 mm. Within percentage limits, the evapotranspiration of the watersheds is about 30% the annual precipitation. The mean daily flow of the watersheds during the dry and wet periods were respectively: B watershed - 3.4 mm and 4.7 mm; D watershed - 3.8 mm and 4.8mm. The mean hydrologic response of B and D watersheds - estimated by the rate between stormflow volume and precipitation, calculated from 88 selected hydrographs, were 0.23 and 0.12 respectively. The results permit the following conclusions: 1) B and D small watersheds are conservative in terms of water consumption. Comparing to other tropical forests, the annual evapotranspiration of forest in the Mata Atântica presents a remarkable smaller proportion; 2) the watersheds presents a rather regular discharge regime during all the water year. In average, the water yield in the rainy period is only 10% greater than the water yield in the drier period. The baseflow is the main component of the daily streamflow, occurring during 90% of the time on the flow duration curves of the catchments. The daily direct runoff contribution occurs only about 10% of the time of the streamflow; 3) there is a remarkable difference between the two watersheds hydrologic response due to precipitations in different seasons of the year. In the rainy period, the proportion of the stormflow is greater than the drier period. The generating area of stormflow in the two watersheds increase from the dry season to the wet season and with rainfall. Even though rare, the minimum contributing area can reach up to 60% of the total catchment area; 4) the stormflow volume of the B watershed is generally greater than the D watershed. During the dry period, 10% the area has a stormflow in the D watershed whereas 20% to 30% the area in B watershed produces a quickflow. During the rainy period, 30% D watershed usually contributes to the development of hydrograph, while 30% to 50% the B watershed surface usually produces this component of the flow; 5) the larger hydrologic responses to stronger rains in the B watershed than D watershed are mainly due to vast area of shallow soil in sloping ground which are concentrated from the top to the bottom in B watershed hillslopes; 6) the determined calibration equations for annual and monthly streamflow, with low standard error of estimate, could already be used to predict streamflow after an eventual experimental treatment in the B catchment. However, the models using volume of direct runoff and runoff peak were not significant with the available number of data.

Submitted by admin tede (tede@pucgoias.edu.br) on 2017-05-12T13:58:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Viviane de Souza Dias.pdf: 3604862 bytes, checksum: 38cb0560ca4264e78dc90a7034433bde (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-12T13:58:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Viviane de Souza Dias.pdf: 3604862 bytes, checksum: 38cb0560ca4264e78dc90a7034433bde (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-22 / The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is an important tool in the management of water resources, and can contribute to the estimation of streamflow to hydroelectric reservoirs. The objective of this study was to simulate the flow in the drainage area of the Furnas reservoir, located in the Rio Grande basin (MG). The series of meteorological and hydrological data included in the study corresponded to the period from 01/01/1998 to 12/31/2013. In the development of the model the following steps were adopted: (1) parameterization of the input data; (2) configuration of the model; (3) warm up and simulation; (4) sensitivity analysis; (5) calibration, validation and analysis of results. Calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis were performed using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm through the Uncertainty Calibration Program (SWAT-CUP). The calibration and validation adjustment was measured by applying the P-Factor (percentage of the measured data bracketed by the 95PPU), the R-Factor (mean uncertainty band thickness) and the Nash and Sutcliffe (NSE) objective function. The P-factor values corresponded to 0.94 and 0.69 for calibration and validation, respectively. The NSE values were 0.86 for the calibration and 0.64 for the validation. The results obtained show a reasonable precision in relation to the literature, being within acceptable intervals, characterizing the model as adequate to estimate reservoir flows, considering the uncertainties of prediction. The construction of models from the SWAT allows the definition of best practices of management of water resources and of hydroelectric reservoirs. / O modelo hidrológico Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) é uma importante ferramenta na gestão de recursos hídricos, podendo contribuir para estimativas de vazão a reservatórios hidrelétricos. O objetivo deste estudo foi simular a vazão na área de drenagem do reservatório da UHE Furnas, localizado na bacia do rio Grande (MG). A série de dados meteorológicos e hidrológicos incluída no estudo correspondeu ao período de 01/01/1998 à 31/12/2013. No desenvolvimento do modelo foram adotadas as etapas: (1) parametrização dos dados de entrada; (2) configuração do modelo; (3) aquecimento e simulação; (4) análise de sensibilidade; (5) calibração, validação e análise dos resultados. A calibração, validação e análise de incertezas foram realizadas utilizando o algoritmo Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) através do Programa de Incerteza de Calibração (SWAT-CUP). O ajuste da calibração e validação foi mensurado aplicando o P-Fator (porcentagem de dados incluídos na faixa de incerteza de 95%), o R-Fator (espessura média da faixa de incerteza) e a função objetivo Nash e Sutcliffe (NSE). Os valores do P-Fator corresponderam a 0,94 e 0,69 para calibração e validação, respectivamente. Os valores do NSE foram de 0,86 para a calibração e 0,64 para a validação. Os resultados encontrados apresentam precisão razoável em relação à literatura, estando dentro de intervalos considerados aceitáveis, caracterizando o modelo como adequado para simular vazões ao reservatório, se consideradas as incertezas de predição. A construção de modelos a partir do SWAT permite a definição de melhores práticas de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos e de reservatórios hidrelétricos.

Lors des crises (sécheresses ou crues) les données hydrométriques participent directement aux processus de décision pour la gestion en temps réel de la ressource en eau mais également à l'analyse a posteriori pour le règlement des litiges. Pour pouvoir prendre des décisions cohérentes, il est alors essentiel de connaître l'incertitude associée aux données de débit. Si les techniques hydrométriques se sont nettement améliorées au cours des dernières décennies, l'estimation des incertitudes reste un défi pour la communauté de l'hydrométrie.Cette étude, portant sur la quantification des incertitudes des jaugeages au courantomètre, s'inscrit dans une suite de travaux récents dont la perspective vise la mise à jour potentielle de la norme ISO 748. Une méthode de propagation analytique des incertitudes, nommée FLAURE, est exposée dans ce manuscrit. Elle permet de pallier les inconvénients des méthodes existantes et vise l’objectivation des différentes sources d’incertitude. Une attention particulière est portée au terme prépondérant d’incertitude dû à l’intégration latérale des profils de vitesse et de bathymétrie (u’m). Pour cela un lien a été établi entre un indice de qualité d’échantillonnage et les erreurs d’interpolation latérale des profils grâce à l’étude de jaugeages à haute résolution latérale de mesure.En l’absence d’étalon de référence en termes de débit d’un cours d’eau, l’apport des essais interlaboratoires, permettant d’obtenir une estimation de l’incertitude dans les conditions des essais, est discuté. La confrontation des approches analytiques à deux campagnes d’essais interlaboratoires a montré les limites de ces deux approches et n’a pas permis de mettre en évidence une méthode analytique fiable. Néanmoins, la multiplication des campagnes d’essais de ce type dans des conditions variées permettra, à terme, d’aboutir à un calcul d’incertitude plus fiable grâce notamment à l’estimation de composants d’incertitude jusqu’alors omis. / During crisis (droughts or floods) hydrometric data are essential for decisions, in real-time, related to water resource management but also afterwards in cases of disagreement. Discharge measurements are the first step to produce such data and associated uncertainty has to be estimated in order to make coherent decisions. Although discharge measurements techniques have improved in recent years, uncertainty analysis is still a challenge in hydrometry.This study aims to estimate uncertainty in discharge measurements using the velocity-area method with potential perspective of ISO 748 standard updating. Different analytical methods, that follow the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement, are available in the literature, all with their own limitations and drawbacks. To address the limitations of existing methods, this study presents a new methodology, called FLAURE, to estimate the uncertainty components. Special attention is given to the estimation of u’m component related to cross-sectional interpolation errors. High-resolution reference gaugings are used to assess the uncertainty component through a statistical analysis. The method then establishes an explicit link between the estimation of cross-sectional interpolation errors and a sampling quality index.It is a challenging task to assess which analytical method provides the best uncertainty estimation due to the lack of streamflow measurement reference standards in natural streams. A useful tool to empirically estimate the uncertainty of a gauging method is the field inter-laboratory experiments. This study presents a comparison between analytical methods and two field inter-laboratory experiments. The comparison has shown the limits of these two approaches and has not highlighted the best analytical method. However, further comparisons, with various site conditions, between the two approaches will probably consolidate analytical methods and improve the reliability of discharge uncertainty estimates.

O modelo Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) tem sido utilizado para avaliar os impactos do uso e manejo da terra nos recursos hídricos, sedimentos e agroquímicos em diversas escalas e condições ambientais em todo o mundo. Entretanto, pelo fato de ter sido desenvolvido em centros de pesquisa norte-americanos, alguns parâmetros e rotinas de simulação não refletem adequadamente determinados processos de bacias localizadas em regiões tropicais. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho visou aprimorar a modelagem hidrológica do SWAT através da revisão e modificação de processos relacionados à simulação da evapotranspiração. Os procedimentos propostos incluíram a alteração das rotinas de dormência vegetal no código fonte do modelo e a modificação dos cronogramas de operações de manejo e parâmetros do banco de dados de crescimento das plantas, visando reproduzir com maior precisão o ciclo das culturas em bacias tropicais. As modificações foram testadas em cinco bacias localizadas no Estado de São Paulo, com áreas entre 42 e 5.959 km², sendo comparados os resultados obtidos antes e depois da implementação das mesmas. Com as alterações, a análise do balanço hídrico anual evidenciou um aumento nos valores de evapotranspiração de cerca de 61% nas bacias, aproximando-se dos totais anuais de evapotranspiração calculados através de métodos empíricos, bem como houve redução significativa do escoamento superficial. Verificou-se uma melhoria da simulação de vazão em todas as bacias, sendo obtidos valores superiores para o Coeficiente de Eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) quando comparados à simulação sem as alterações. A calibração e validação foram realizadas com base na simulação modificada, sendo obtidos valores de NSE mensais entre 0,71 e 0,93 na calibração e 0,53 e 0,88 na validação, enquanto os valores diários de NSE situaram-se entre 0,51 e 0,82 na calibração e 0,38 e 0,83 na validação. A calibração a partir de uma simulação na qual as distorções dos processos hidrológicos da bacia estivessem previamente minimizadas resultou em bons resultados sem alteração excessiva dos parâmetros, indicando uma simulação hidrológica de melhor consistência. / The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in a wide range of scales and environmental conditions across the globe. However, originally developed in the United States, some parameters and routines are unrealistic for simulating in tropical watersheds. In this sense, this work aims to improve the hydrologic modeling of SWAT model by reviewing and modifying parameters and routines related to evapotranspiration process. In order to adequately represent crop growth in tropical basins, the proposed procedures included changes in dormancy routines of SWAT source code and modifications of scheduled management operations and plant growth database parameters. These modifications were tested in five different basins at São Paulo State, Brazil, with areas ranging from 42 to 5959 km², by comparing the results before and after their implementation. Annual water balance analysis showed an increase in evapotranspiration about 61% for basins, approaching the total annual evapotranspiration estimated by empirical methods. Hence, it was observed that surface runoff and base flow components showed a decrease. The modifications resulted in improved flow simulation for all basins, showing better Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) values compared to the unchanged simulation. Calibration and validation processes used the modified simulation database, being achieved monthly NSE between 0.71 – 0.73 at calibration and 0.53 – 0.88 at validation, while daily NSE were 0.51 – 0.82 at calibration and 0.38 – 0.83 at validation. Overall, minimizing distortions in hydrological processes at pre-calibration step resulted in good estimations without excessive modification of parameters at calibration, attesting a consistent hydrological modeling for the basins analyzed.

The town of Mosier, Oregon, is located near the east, dry end of the Columbia River Gorge, and the local area is known for cherry orchards that rely heavily on groundwater for irrigation. The CRBG groundwater system in Mosier has experienced groundwater declines of up to 60 meters due to over-pumping and or commingling. Declining groundwater levels have led to concerns over the sustainability of the resource, as it is the principle water source for irrigation and domestic use. Despite numerous previous studies of groundwater flow in CRBG aquifers here and elsewhere in the Columbia River basin, an aspect that has received relatively little attention is the interaction between groundwater and surface waters at locations where interflow zones are intersected by the surface waters. The objective of my research is to investigate how CRBG interflow zone exposures in Mosier Creek may be controlling groundwater elevations in the area. The methods used include: (1) geochemical analysis of well cuttings and detailed geologic mapping along area streams to identify interflow zones of individual CRBG flows, (2) analysis of stream discharge data and groundwater elevation data to confirm exchange of groundwater and surface waters, and (3) collection and analyses of 31 water samples from area wells, streams, and springs, to determine if waters from individual CRBG aquifers can be hydrochemically identified and to further constrain understanding of surface and groundwater interactions. My study confirms that the general elevation of the Pomona Member and Basalt of Lolo interflow zone creek exposure is coincident with the elevation where a change in slope of the decline trend in 2004 is seen in Mosier area well hydrographs. Furthermore, the results of stream discharge data indicated a close connection between drawdown from groundwater pumping during irrigation season and groundwater- surface water interaction. At the time of drawdown in the upper-most CRBG aquifer (Pomona), the stream transitions from gaining to losing water into the groundwater system. Elemental chemistry data indicates the Frenchman Springs Sentinel Gap aquifer waters are the most evolved waters in this study. Stable isotopic data reinforced this determination as the Sentinel Gap waters are the lightest, or most negative, with regard to δD and δ18O. Sentinel Gap samples were more depleted than other aquifer samples by 4.38 to 6.89 0/100 for δD and 0.39 to 0.59 0/100 for δ18O. The results of the general chemistry and isotope data reveal a more evolved chemical signature in lower watershed groundwater versus a less evolved signature for waters from wells located higher up on the Columbia Hills anticline. This was interpreted to be the result of the major structural features in the area providing for a more regional pathway of recharge in lower watershed groundwaters, versus a more local source of recharge for upper watershed groundwaters. There was also a pronounced commingled signature in the elemental ratios of lower watershed aquifer waters. The suspected mechanism of recharge to lower watershed wells is through younger Cascadian deposits upslope from the local watershed. The findings of this study reveal the importance of a detailed understanding of CRBG stratigraphy and its relation to surface waters, especially for other areas within the Yakima Fold Belt or Oregon and Washington. Studies that do not consider the influence that individual CRBG flows can have on groundwater-surface water interactions, and the groundwater system as a whole, run the risk of improperly assessing the groundwater resource for a region.

The existing theories for predicting longitudinal dispersion in straight open channels have long been recognized as inadequate when applied to natural rivers. These theories tend to grossly underestimate dispersion in real streams since an important mixing mechanism due to nonuniform river cross-section variations is not explicitly taken into account. Recognizing the important role of stream irregularities on solute transport and the analytical difficulties of classical deterministic analysis, we develop a stochastic approach for analyzing solute transport in natural streams. Variations in river width and bed elevation are conveniently represented as one-dimensional random fields, characterized by their autocorrelation functions. Advection and dispersion due to the combined effect of turbulent diffusion and nonuniform flow are described by the stochastic solute transport equation. When boundary variations are small and statistically homogeneous, a stochastic spectral technique is used to obtain closed-form stochastic solutions. In particular, closed-form expressions are obtained for effective mean solute transport velocity and effective dispersion coefficient reflecting mixing due to flow variations both within the river cross-section and in the streamwise direction. The results show that the mean behavior of solute transport in a statistically irregular stream can be described as a gradient dispersion process. The effective mean transport velocity in natural rivers is smaller than that in a corresponding uniform channel, and the effective longitudinal dispersion coefficient in natural rivers can be considerably greater than that of uniform open channels. The discrepancy between uniform channels and natural rivers increases rapidly as the variances of river width and bed elevation increase, especially when the mean flow Froude number is high.

Watershed regulation of water, carbon and nutrient dynamics support food, drinking water and human development. Projected climate changes and land use/cover change (LUCC) have been identified as drivers of watershed nutrient and hydrological processes and are likely to happen jointly in the future decades. Studying climate change and LUCC impacts on watersheds' streamflow and nutrients dynamics is therefore essential for future watershed management. This research aimed to unveil how climate change and LUCC affect water and nutrient dynamics in the Missisquoi River watershed, Vermont. We used 12 scenarios of future climate data (2021 – 2050) generated by three GCMs (ccsm4, mri-cgcm3, and gfdl-esm2m) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For LUCC, we used three different scenarios generated by the Interactive Land Use Transition Agent-Based Model (ILUTABM). The three LUCC scenarios were Business As Usual (BAU), Prefer Forest (proForest), and Prefer Agriculture (proAg). New land use maps were generated every 10 years for the period of 2021 – 2050. Combining each climate change and LUCC scenario resulted in 36 scenarios that were used to drive Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) ecohydrological model. In chapter 3, we used RHESSys to study streamflow. We found climate was the main driver for streamflow because climate change directly controlled the system water input. For streamflow, climate change scenarios had larger impacts than LUCC, different LUCCs under the same climate change scenario had similar annual flow patterns. In chapter 4, we used RHESSys to study streamflow NO3-N and NH4-N load. Because fertilizer application is the major source for nitrogen export, LUCC had larger impacts; watersheds with more agricultural land had larger nitrogen loads. In chapter 5, we developed RHESSys-P by coupling the DayCent phosphorus module with RHESSys to study climate change and LUCC impacts on Dissolved Phosphorus (DP) load. RHESSys-P was calibrated with observed DP data for 2002 – 2004 and validated with data for 2009 - 2010. In both calibration and validation periods, simulated DP basically captured patterns of observed DP. In the validation period, the R2 of simulated vs observed DP was 0.788. Future projection results indicated BAU and proForest annual loads were around 4.0 × 104 kg under all climate change scenarios; proAg annual loads increased from around 4.0 × 104 kg in 2021 to 1.6 × 105 kg in 2050 under all climate change scenarios. The results showed LUCC was the dominant factor for dissolved phosphorus loading. Overall, our results suggest that, while climate drives streamflow, N and P fluxes are largely driven by land use and management decisions. To balance human development and environmental quality, BAU is a feasible future development strategy.

No description available.

The principal objective of this dissertation is to develop Bayesian machine learning models for multiple reservoir, irrigation canal, and river system operation and management. These types of models are derived from the emerging area of machine learning theory; they are characterized by their ability to capture the underlying physics of the system simply by examination of the measured system inputs and outputs. They can be used to provide probabilistic predictions of system behavior using only historical data. The models were developed in the form of a multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) that is based on a sparse Bayesian learning machine approach for regression. Using this Bayesian approach, a predictive confidence interval is obtained from the model that captures the uncertainty of both the model and the data. The models were applied to the multiple reservoir, canal and river system located in the regulated Lower Sevier River Basin in Utah. The models were developed to perform predictions of multi-time-ahead releases of multiple reservoirs, diversions of multiple canals, and streamflow and water loss/gain in a river system. This research represents the first attempt to use a multivariate Bayesian learning regression approach to develop simultaneous multi-step-ahead predictions with predictive confidence intervals for multiple outputs in a regulated river basin system. These predictions will be of potential value to reservoir and canal operators in identifying the best decisions for operation and management of irrigation water supply systems.