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Fragility Methodology for Performance-Based Engineering of Wood-Frame Residential ConstructionLi, Yue 19 August 2005 (has links)
Hurricanes and earthquakes have caused extensive property damage to wood-frame residential construction in the past two decades in the United States. In order to improve residential building performance and mitigate losses from hurricane and earthquake hazards, there is an urgent need for better understanding of building performance and improvements in design and evaluation tools.
In this study, a fragility analysis methodology is developed for assessing the response of light-frame wood construction exposed to extreme hurricane winds and earthquakes. The fragility is a conditional limit state probability, presented as a function of the 3-second gust wind speed (hurricanes) or spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the building (earthquakes), leading to a relation between damage state probability and the hazard stipulated in ASCE Standard 7. A fully coupled probabilistic framework is proposed to assess reliability of the residential construction through convolution of the structural fragility model with hazard models. Finally, a comparative risk assessment addresses the similarities and differences in competing hurricane and earthquake hazards.
The tools above can be used to evaluate new and existing building products, model the uncertainties that are inherent to the prediction of building performance, and manage the risk that is consequent to these uncertainties economically
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Reliability Analysis Of Randomly Vibrating Structures With Parameter UncertaintiesGupta, Sayan 07 1900 (has links) (PDF)
No description available.
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Probabilistic based evaluation of the structural reliability achieved for a typical building designed according to SANS 517:2009 and SANS 10162- 2:2010Oosthuizen, Frederik du Toit 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study aims to perform a quantitative probabilistic based evaluation of the reliability
achieved in the design of Light Steel Frame Buildings (LSFB) when designed according to the
loading code, SANS 517:2009 and the new design code for cold formed steel sections, SANS
10162-2:2010.
The evaluation was done as follows: A specific structure, chosen and designed according to the
specifications given in SANS 517:2009, was modelled in a structural analysis program. From the
analyses done it was possible to identify the most critical element for given failure modes. Spread
sheets according to SANS 10162-2:2010 were developed to calculate the resistance or design
values for the different failure modes.
By using a First Order Reliability Method (FORM), the reliability index for each failure mode
could be calculated and evaluated in three different ways.
Firstly, the reliability margin implied by the design load was evaluated. It was assumed that the
resistance of the profile had a deterministic value while the loads applied to the structure were
taken as probabilistic, i.e. following their known distribution functions. From this evaluation it
was found that the necessary level of reliability was achieved for all failure modes.
Secondly, the reliability margin implied by the resistance of the profile was evaluated. The
resistance of the profile was taken as probabilistic with a distribution function that could be
determined from the known distribution functions of the profile parameters responsible for the
capacity of the profile. The loading was assumed to have a single deterministic value. From this
evaluation it could be seen that a very low level of reliability was achieved for the failure modes
of shear working in on the strong axis of the profile as well as interaction between bending and
axial load. This is due to the strong dependence of this failure mode to the thickness of the profile,
to which no partial factor is applied in the design process.
Thirdly, the reliability margin implied by both the resistance and loads was evaluated. In a real
life situation both loads and resistances would have variability. The resistance and loading values
were taken as probabilistic with their known distribution functions. From this evaluation it was found that the necessary level of reliability was only achieved for shear working in on the weakaxis
and axial load. All other failure modes achieved a level of reliability slightly lower than the
target level of reliability for South Africa.
The stiffening effect of wall cladding elements were not taken into account in the analysis. The
reliability of connections was also not evaluated.
It can be concluded that the element reliability achieved through the use of above-mentioned
codes seems to be slightly less that desired. There could be an argument for recalibrating the
partial factors to achieve the desired level of element reliability. However, the cladding elements
provide significant additional stiffness to the structure and there is no immediate cause for
stiffness concern. Future studies should aim to quantify the contribution that the cladding
elements make to the overall structural reliability. The influence of connections reliability should
also be investigated. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die studie poog om ‘n kwantitatiewe probabilisties-gebaseerde beoordeling van die
betroubaarheidsindeks vir Ligte Staalraam Strukture (LSS) te bepaal wanneer dit ontwerp word
volgens die belastingskode, SANS 517:2009 en die nuwe ontwerpskode vir koudgevormde staal
profiele, SANS 10162-2:2010.
Die beoordeling is as volg gedoen. ‘n Spesifieke strukturele model is gekies, ontwerp volgens die
spesifiekasies in SANS 517:2009 en toe gemodelleer in ‘n struktuur analise program. Vanuit die
analises was dit moontlik om die mees kritieke element te vind vir gegewe falings modusse.
Sigblaaie, volgens SANS 10162-2:2010, is ontwikkel om die weerstand van die profile te bereken
vir die falings modusse.
Dit was moontlik om die betroubaarheidsindeks op drie verskillende maniere te bereken deur
gebruik te maak van ‘n Eerste Orde Betroubaarheids Metode (EOBM).
Eerstens is die betroubaarheids speling wat deur die belasting geimpliseer was, bepaal. Daar is
aanvaar dat die weerstand van die profiel ‘n deterministiese waarde het terwyl die aangewende
belasitng as probabilisties geneem is met hul bekende verdelingsfunksies. Uit hierdie
beoordeling is gevind dat die nodige vlak van betroubaarheid bereik word vir alle falings
modusse.
Tweedens is die betroubaarheids speling wat deur die weerstand geimpliseer was, bepaal. Daar
is aanvaar dat die weerstand van die profile ‘n probabilistiese verdeling het wat bepaal is uit
bekende verdelingsfunksies van die profiel parameters verantwoordelik vir die kapasiteit van die
profiel. Daar is aanvaar dat die belasting ‘n enkele deterministiese waarde het. Uit hierdie
beoordeling is gevind dat daar ‘n baie lae vlak van betroubaarheid is vir skuif in die rigting van
die sterk as, asook interaksie tussen aksiaal-las en momente. Dit is te danke aan die falings
modus se sterk afhanklikheid van die dikte van die profiel. Daar word egter geen parsiële faktor
aan die dikte toegeken in die ontwerp proses nie.
Derdens is die betroubaarheids speling wat deur beide die weerstand en belasting geïmpliseer
was, bepaal. In die werklikheid sal beide belasting en weerstand ‘n vlak van onsekerheid hê. Die
weerstand en belasting is as probabilistiese waardes geneem met hul bekende verdelingsfunksies. Uit hierdie beoordeling is gevind dat slegs die falings modus vir skuif in die
rigting van die swak as en aksiaal-las die nodige vlak van betroubaarheid bereik. Al die ander
modusse het steeds ‘n redelike hoë vlak van betroubaarheid. Dit is egter steeds laer as wat
voorgeskryf word vir Suid-Afrika.
Die verstywings-effek van die bekleding is nie in hierdie ondersoek in ag geneem nie. Die
betroubaarheid van die verbindings is ook nie bepaal nie.
‘n Gevolgtrekking kan dus gemaak word dat die element-betroubaarheid wat bereik word deur
die bo-genoemde kodes effens laer is as die gewensde. ‘n Argument kan ontstaan vir die
herkalibrasie van die parsiële faktore om die gewensde vlak van betroubaarheid te bereik, maar
die bekleding bied ‘n noemenswaardige addisionele styfheid aan die struktuuur. Daar is dus geen
onmiddellike kommer oor die styfheid van hierdie strukture nie. Verdere studies moet poog om
die bydra van hierdie bekledingselemente tot die betroubaarheid van die struktuur te
kwantifiseer. Die invloed van die konneksies tot die betroubaarheid van die struktuur sal ook
ondersoek moet word.
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A Framework for Stochastic Finite Element Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Beams Affected by Reinforcement CorrosionBaingo, Darek 16 July 2012 (has links)
Corrosion of reinforcing bars is the major cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete (RC) structures in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and many coastal regions around the world. This deterioration leads to a loss of serviceability and functionality and ultimately affects the structural safety. The objective of this research is to formulate and implement a general stochastic finite element analysis (SFEA) framework for the time-dependent reliability analysis of RC beams with corroding flexural reinforcement. The framework is based on the integration of nonlinear finite element and reliability analyses through an iterative response surface methodology (RSM). Corrosion-induced damage is modelled through the combined effects of gradual loss of the cross-sectional area of the steel reinforcement and the reduction bond between steel and concrete for increasing levels of corrosion. Uncertainties in corrosion rate, material properties, and imposed actions are modelled as random variables. Effective implementation of the framework is achieved by the coupling of commercial finite element and reliability software. Application of the software is demonstrated through a case study of a simply-supported RC girder with tension reinforcement subjected to the effects of uniform (general) corrosion, in which two limit states are considered: (i) a deflection serviceability limit state and (ii) flexural strength ultimate limit state. The results of the case study show that general corrosion leads to a very significant decrease in the reliability of the RC beam both in terms of flexural strength and maximum deflections. The loss of strength and serviceability was shown to be predominantly caused by the loss of bond strength, whereas the gradual reduction of the cross-sectional area of tension reinforcement was found to be insignificant. The load-deflection response is also significantly affected by the deterioration of bond strength (flexural strength and stiffness). The probability of failure at the end of service life, due to the effects of uniform corrosion-induced degradation, is observed to be approximately an order of magnitude higher than in the absence of corrosion. Furthermore, the results suggest that flexural resistance of corroded RC beams is controlled by the anchorage (bond) of the bars and not by the yielding of fully bonded tensile reinforcement at failure. This is significant since the end regions can be severely corroded due to chloride, moisture, and oxygen access at connections and expansion joints. The research strongly suggests that bond damage must be considered in the assessment of the time-dependent reliability of RC beams subjected to general corrosion.
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Processo de avaliação probabilística de integridade estrutural aplicado à otimização dimensional de elementos estruturais. / Process for probabilistic assessment of structural integrity applied to dimensional optimization of structural elements.Namindome, Guilherme 08 August 2018 (has links)
Este trabalho de pesquisa visa apresentar um processo de avaliação probabilística de integridade mecânica de elementos estruturais, e ilustra sua aplicação em situações de otimização dimensional de tais elementos. O processo apresentado é baseado na análise de confiabilidade por métodos analíticos, utilizando o diagrama de avaliação de falha (FAD) como critério de falha. A escolha da curva FAD como critério de falha visa padronizar a análise de confiabilidade estrutural, permitindo a sua aplicação tanto em simulações numéricas quanto em mapas utilizados para rápidas tomadas de decisão. Os métodos de análise e o processo apresentado são aplicados em casos de estudo para mostrar a influência da percepção probabilística nas tomadas de decisão de projeto e a importância da análise de risco no dimensionamento de sistemas estruturais. / This work intends to present a process for probabilistic assessment of mechanical integrity of structural elements, and illustrates its application in situations of dimensional optimization of such elements. The presented process is based on the reliability analysis by analytical methods, using the failure assessment diagram (FAD) as failure criteria. The choice of FAD curve as a failure criteria aims to standardize the structural reliability analysis, allowing its application both in numerical simulations and in chart maps used for fast decision making. The methods of analysis and the presented process are applied in case studies to show the influence of probabilistic perception on project decision making and the importance of risk analysis in the design of structural systems.
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[en] PERFORMANCE OF IN-LINE INSPECTION TOOLS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY OF CORRODED PIPELINE / [pt] DESEMPENHO DAS FERRAMENTAS DE INSPEÇÃO EM LINHA E SUA INFLUÊNCIA NA CONFIABILIDADE ESTRUTURAL DE DUTOS CORROÍDOSJOSE DE JESUS LEAL CARVAJALINO 12 July 2004 (has links)
[pt] Neste trabalho apresenta-se a avaliação do desempenho de
ferramentas de inspeção em linha (ILI) ou pig instrumentado
na medição de defeitos causados por corrosão e estudam-se
diferentes métodos para o cálculo da confiabilidade
estrutural ou cálculo da probabilidade de falha (POF) de um
duto corroído, baseada na análise do relatório do pig. O
relatório de inspeção do pig é avaliado através de
comparações de seus resultados com as medições dos defeitos
feitas por ferramentas de referência (medições em campo).
Os erros associados a cada sistema de medição podem ser
encontrados a partir de métodos estatísticos como os
métodos da raiz do erro quadrático médio, dos estimadores
de Grubbs, de Thompson e de Jaech. As medições das duas
ferramentas são também avaliadas através de testes
estatísticos para a linha de tendência e o coeficiente de
correlação linear (r). O número mínimo de medições de campo
necessárias para verificar o desempenho do pig no
dimensionamento dos defeitos de corrosão é determinado
pela implementação de um teste baseado na análise
seqüencial. Uma vez que o relatório do pig é avaliado e
aceito, a POF de um duto corroído é calculada usando os
métodos analíticos de primeira ordem (FORM) e propagação de
incertezas, e o método de simulação de Monte Carlo. A POF
do duto é calculada em função de modelos de pressão de
falha onde suas variáveis são definidas como funções de
probabilidade (fdp). No caso das dimensões do defeito, a
fdp e seus parâmetros estatísticos são obtidos a partir da
exatidão do pig. A comparação entre a POF calculada e a POF
admissível permite determinar quando será necessário fazer
uma nova re-inspeção. Quando a POF calculada atinge um valor
maior que a POF admissível, antes de se completar um tempo
desejado para a próxima inspeção, o procedimento
desenvolvido permite decidir qual o número de reparos que
deverá ser feito para que este tempo seja alcançado. / [en] This work presents: i) the assessment of in line inspection
(ILI) tools performance in the measurement of defects
caused by corrosion; ii) differents methods to
calculate structural reliability and probability of failure
(POF) of corroded pipeline based in the ILI report. The
inspection report of the ILI (or instrumented pig) is
compared with the the geometry of defects measured by a
reference tool (field measurements) and the erros
associated to each measurement system are analyzed and
assessed from statistical methods. The statistical analysis
emploies methods such as the root mean square
error/diffrential, and the Grubbs s, Thompson s and Jaech s
estimators. The measurements taken by both tools (pig and
field) are compared and analyzed through statistical tests
that consider the tendency line and the coefficient of
linear correlation (r). The minimum number of field
measurements necessary to verify the performance of the ILI
in sizing of corrosion defects is determined by the
implementation of a test based on the sequential analysis.
POF of a pipeline is calculated using three different
methods: i) first order reliability methods (FORM); ii)
propagation of uncertainties and iii) the method Monte
Carlo. The POF of the pipeline is calculated as a function
of different failure models whose variables (such as
pressure, geometric and material parameters) are defined by
their probability functions (pdf). The pdf and statistical
parameters of the defect dimensions are determined from the
accuracy of the pig measurements. The comparison between
calculated and acceptable POF allows the determination of
next reinspection period. When the calculated POF exceeds
the acceptable POF before completing the amount of time
desired for the next inspection, the developed procedure
allows to know the number of repairs that must be made to
reach the desired time when the next ILI will be carried
out.
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Novo método para a avaliação do risco de colapso progressivo em edifícios de alvenaria estrutural / New method for assessment the risk of progressive collapse in masonry structural buildingsFelipe, Túlio Raunyr Cândido 03 February 2017 (has links)
O evento do colapso progressivo começou a ser estudado, principalmente, após o acidente do edifício Ronan Point, em 1968, na cidade de Londres. Esse acidente fez o meio técnico rever as considerações normativas, sobretudo de maneira a adicionar recomendações que visem minimizar os danos causados à estrutura quando sujeita a um dano acidental.Entretanto, tais recomendações não realizam a análise do risco da estrutura colapsar. Essas também não conseguem analisar medidas de robustez e vulnerabilidade, e nem determinar qual é o elemento chave para a estrutura. Desse modo, partindo desses questionamentos, o presente trabalho desenvolveu uma nova metodologia nomeada aqui de Risk Analysis of the Progressive Collapse (RAPC). Este procedimento fornece uma medida mais precisa dos riscos, através de uma abordagem que utiliza a Teoria da Confiabilidade Estrutural. Assim, é deduzida uma expressão para a determinação da probabilidade de colapso progressivo, bem como são definidos os coeficientes de importância e vulnerabilidade para identificar o(s) elemento(s) chave. O elemento chave é definido como o que apresenta a maior interseção entre vulnerabilidade e importância para o colapso estrutural. Essas formulações desenvolvidas na metodologia do RAPC são implementadas em Fortran. Para isso, a modelagem do edifício de alvenaria estrutural é feita utilizando o software DIANA®, no qual os esforços solicitantes são obtidos e utilizados como dados de entrada na análise de confiabilidade. Valores de probabilidades de falha individual por elemento, condicional e condicional dupla são calculados pelo First Order Reliability Method (FORM) e Importance Sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC) com auxílio do programa StRAnD. Um algoritmo em Fortran é implementado para acoplamento do DIANA® e StRAnD, além de mapear a probabilidade de falha dos elementos estruturais. Portanto, torna-se evidente que a identificação dos elementos mais vulneráveis, e do elemento chave em particular, é útil para abordagens diretas de concepção estrutural, tais como a melhoria da resistência local. Contudo, os coeficientes propostos também medem os efeitos dos procedimentos de projeto que conduzem à continuidade, ductilidade e redundância. Quando essas medidas trabalham para reduzir as probabilidades de propagação de dano ou colapso, isso se reflete nas vulnerabilidades de elementos eventualmente iniciando esses caminhos de falha. Sendo assim, conclui-se que a formulação do RAPC se mostra como uma ferramenta na determinação do risco do colapso progressivo nas estruturas. / The progressive collapse event began to be studied, mainly, after the accident of the Ronan Point building, at 1968, in the city of London. This accident caused the engineers review their normative considerations, mainly in order to add recommendations aimed at minimizing the damage to structure when subjected to abnormal loading. However, such recommendations do not perform the risk analysis of the structure to collapse. These also fail to analyze measures of robustness and vulnerability, and either determine which is the key element of the structure. Thus, leaving of these questions, the present work to develop a new methodology named here of Risk Analysis of the Progressive Collapse (RAPC). This procedure provides a more accurate measure of risks through an approach that uses Structural Reliability Theory. Thus, an expression is deduced for the determination of the probability of progressive collapse, as well as the importance and vulnerability coefficients are defined to identify the key element (or key elements). The key element is identified as the one presenting the largest intersection between vulnerability and importance to collapse.These formulations developed in the RAPC methodology are implemented in Fortran.For this, the structural masonry building modeling is done using the DIANA® software, in which the requesting efforts are obtained and used as input data in the reliability analysis. Probabilities values individual, conditional, and double conditional are calculated by the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Importance Sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC) using the StRAnD software. A Fortran algorithm is implemented for DIANA® and StRAnD coupling, besides mapping the probability of failure of the structural elements. Therefore, it is clear that identification of the most vulnerable elements, and of the key element in particular, is useful for direct design approaches to structural design, such as local resistance enhancements. However, the coefficients proposed herein also measure the effects of design procedures leading to continuity, ductility or redundancy. When these measures work to reduce probabilities of damage propagation or collapse, this is reflected in the vulnerabilities of elements eventually initiating these failure paths. Therefore, it is concluded that the formulation of RAPC is shown as an tool in determining the risk of progressive collapse in structures.
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Análise da confiabilidade da ligação laje-pilar interno sob punção de acordo com a NBR-6118:2014 / Reliability analysis of the slab-column intersection under puching according to NBR 6118:2014Silva, Gustavo Ribeiro da January 2017 (has links)
As demandas do mercado da construção civil têm exigido vãos cada vez maiores e ao mesmo tempo alturas cada vez menores das vigas. Isto tem levado muitos projetistas à adoção da solução do pavimento em laje lisa em concreto armado ou protendido. No entanto, a ausência das vigas torna possível a ruptura das lajes por puncionamento junto aos pilares. A norma NBR-6118:2014 prescreve as disposições para o projeto de lajes sob punção. O trabalho proposto teve como objetivo principal a análise da confiabilidade da ligação laje-pilar interno sob o efeito da punção em lajes que se apoiam diretamente sobre pilares de acordo com a NBR-6118:2014. Primeiramente, com o intuito de se entender melhor o fenômeno da punção, realizou-se uma breve revisão bibliográfica, identificando os principais parâmetros que influenciam na resistência da ligação, assim como os principais métodos de análise e trabalhos realizados na área. Em seguida, estudou-se o software de análise em elementos finitos ANSYS (Analysis Systems Incorporated), especificamente a ferramenta UPF (User Programmable Features), que foi utilizada para adoção de um modelo constitutivo para o concreto. Utilizando o software, foram modeladas lajes estudadas por outros autores, visando a validação do modelo numérico. Para o estudo da confiabilidade foi dimensionado um conjunto de lajes lisas seguindo as prescrições da NBR 6118:2014. A análise da confiabilidade foi realizada utilizando a ferramenta PDS (Probabilistic Design System), empregando o método de simulação numérica de Monte Carlo com amostragem por Latin Hypercube. Por fim, determinou-se o índice de confiabilidade em cada projeto e realizaram-se análises paramétricas com as variáveis adotadas no trabalho. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que as lajes lisas sem armadura de cisalhamento projetadas segundo a NBR 6118:2014 obtiveram, em sua maioria, índices de confiabilidade adequados. Porém, para as lajes lisas com armadura de cisalhamento, o índice de confiabilidade foi, em grande parte, menor que o índice de confiabilidade alvo adotado. / The demands of the construction market have required increasingly large spans while diminishing of the beam heights. This has led many designers to adopt the pavement solucion of reinforced or prestressed concrete flat slab. However, the absence of the beams makes it possible to slabs failure by punching shear. The Standard NBR-6118: 2014 prescribes the requirements for the design of slabs under punching. The aim of this work was to analyze the reliability of the internal slab-column intersection under punching in slabs supported directly on columns according to NBR-6118: 2014. Firstly, in order to better understand the punching phenomenon, a brief bibliographic review was carried out, identifying the main parameters that influence the connection strength, as well as the main methods of analysis and published in the area. Then, the finite element analysis software ANSYS (Analysis Systems Incorporated), specifically the UPF (User Programmable Features) tool, was used to adopt a concrete constitutive model. Using the software, slabs studied by other authors were modeled, aiming at the validation of the numerical model. For the reliability study, a set of flat slabs was designed following the requirements of NBR 6118: 2014. The reliability analysis was performed using the PDS (Probabilistic Design System) tool, using the Monte Carlo numerical simulation method with Latin Hypercube sampling. Finally, the reliability index was determined in each project and parametric analyzes were performed with the variables adopted in the study. The results from this study show that the flat slabs without shear reinforcement designed according to NBR Standarts obtained appropriate reliability index. However, for the flat slabs with shear reinforcement, the reliability index, in most cases, did not achieve the target reliability index.
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Avaliação de técnicas de controle da incrustação por mexilhão-dourado em hidrogeradores visando minimização da indisponibilidade. / Evaluation of techniques for golden mussel fouling control in hydroelectric power plants aimed at mitigation of unavailability.Felix, Érico Pessoa 24 November 2011 (has links)
O mexilhão-dourado é um organismo invasor que tem causado grandes prejuízos a sistemas de captação de água e usinas hidroelétricas (UHEs). Existem diversos métodos de controle da incrustação destes organismos em tubulações de usinas hidroelétricas, porém o impacto da aplicação desses métodos ainda não é amplamente conhecido. Este trabalho visa desenvolver uma metodologia para avaliar a degradação dos sistemas de resfriamento de UHEs submetidas a tratamentos químicos para o controle da incrustação por mexilhão-dourado. Neste trabalho é usado, como caso exemplo, o sistema de resfriamento do ar do núcleo do gerador e do óleo dos mancais de uma UHE com turbina Kaplan de potência aproximada de 150 MW. A análise proposta baseia-se na aplicação de ensaios acelerados de corrosão, a fim de determinar a taxa de corrosão nas condições normais de operação. Os ensaios executados neste estudo simulam condições operacionais mais severas do que as usualmente enfrentadas pelo sistema, visando reduzir o tempo de execução dos ensaios. Os ensaios acelerados de corrosão baseiam-se no aumento da solicitação térmica e da concentração das substâncias químicas injetadas no fluxo de água que são a adição de gás ozônio e de hipoclorito de sódio. Para realização dos ensaios foi construído um circuito experimental capaz de impor condições de temperatura e concentrações das substâncias químicas. Os resultados dos ensaios acelerados fornecem subsídios para aplicação dos conceitos de confiabilidade estrutural para determinação da probabilidade de falha dos equipamentos em estudo em função do tempo de aplicação do tratamento químico. Verificou-se entre os produtos químicos utilizados neste estudo, que o hipoclorito de sódio é 50% mais agressivo para a liga de cobre níquel e 700% mais agressivo para o aço inoxidável em relação a degradação observada pela ação do ozônio. / The golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei) is an invader organism that has caused great damage to water catchment systems and hydroelectric power plants. There are various methods of fouling control of these organisms in hydroelectric power plants pipelines, but the impact of the application of these methods is not yet widely known. This work aims at developing a methodology to evaluate the degradation of hydroelectric power plants cooling systems pieces of equipment subjected to chemical treatments for control of golden mussel fouling. This work uses as a case example, the cooling system inside generator and oil bearing of Kaplan hydroelectric turbine with 150MW nominal power output. The analysis is based on the application of accelerated corrosion tests in order to determine the rate of corrosion under normal operation conditions given the rates of corrosion under various accelerated conditions. The tests run on this thesis simulate operating conditions more severe than those usually experienced by the system, to reduce the runtime of the tests. The proposed accelerated corrosion tests are based on increased thermal loading and concentration of chemical substances injected into water flow. The chemical treatments tested in this work are the addition of ozone and sodium hypochlorite. For carrying out the tests an experimental circuit capable of imposing different conditions of temperature and concentration levels was built. The results of accelerated tests provide subsidies for the implementation of structural reliability concepts for determining the failure probability of equipment under consideration. Among the chemical products used in the analysis, the sodium hypochlorite is 50% more aggressive for copper-nickel 90/10 alloy and 700% more aggressive for stainless steel in relation to degradation observed for ozone.
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Técnicas de amostragem inteligente em simulação de Monte Carlo / Intelligent sampling techniques in Monte Carlo simulationSantos, Ketson Roberto Maximiano dos 26 March 2014 (has links)
A confiabilidade de estruturas apresenta sólidos desenvolvimentos teóricos e crescentes aplicações práticas. Durante os últimos anos, avanços significativos foram obtidos em termos dos métodos de transformação (FORM, SORM), bem como em termos das técnicas de simulação de Monte Carlo. Métodos de transformação se mostraram eficientes para problemas de dimensões e não-linearidades moderadas. Já técnicas de simulação sempre permitiram a solução de problemas de grandes dimensões e fortemente não lineares, embora o custo computacional possa ser uma séria limitação. Com o avanço da capacidade de processamento dos computadores e com o desenvolvimento de técnicas de amostragem inteligente, a simulação de Monte Carlo passa a ser cada vez mais viável. Este trabalho tem por objetivo estudar e programar em computador técnicas de amostragem inteligente em simulação de Monte Carlo. O StRAnD é um programa de computador que já possui implementadas as técnicas de simulação de Monte Carlo Bruto e com Amostragem por Importância, ambas utilizando a Amostragem Simples na geração das variáveis básicas. Assim, são adicionadas, ao StRAnD, as técnicas de Amostragem Assintótica, Amostragem Melhorada e Simulação de Subconjuntos. Além disso, são programadas as técnicas de Amostragem por Hipercubo Latino e Amostragem por Variáveis Antitéticas. Nesta dissertação, são analisados seis problemas distintos, de forma que as vantagens e desvantagens de cada técnica sejam avaliadas, em termos da probabilidade de falha, do coeficiente de variação da probabilidade de falha, do erro relativo da probabilidade de falha e do tempo de processamento. / The structural reliability presents solid theoretical developments and increasing practical applications. During the past few years, significant advances were achieved in terms of transformation methods (FORM and SORM), as well as, in terms of Monte Carlo Simulation. Transformation methods are effective in problems with moderate dimensions and moderate nonlinearities. On the other hand, simulation techniques can be used to solve high-dimensional problems and highly nonlinear problems, although the computational cost could be a serious limitation. With the progress of computer processing capacity and with the development of intelligent sampling techniques, the Monte Carlo Simulation becomes increasingly feasible. This work aims to study and program intelligent sampling techniques in Monte Carlo simulation. The StRAnD (Structural Reliability Analysis and Design) software already has Crude Monte Carlo and Importance Sampling Monte Carlo, both using Simple Sampling as basic samples generator. Thus, the Asymptotic Sampling technique, the Enhanced Sampling technique and the Subset Simulation were added to the software. Moreover, the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique and the Antithetic Variates techniques were also added to the software. Six problems were evaluated in order to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each technique, in terms of probability of failure, coefficient of variation of the probability of failure, relative error and processing time.
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