本研究欲以存活分析方式了解女性在結束最高學歷後，逐年進入初婚的可能性。台灣女性的初婚狀況在1980年後，逐漸由普遍成婚轉為遲婚、甚至不婚，尤其以高等教育女性的晚婚現象最為嚴重。一般來說，年輕的在學女性由於尚未具備獨立成家的經濟能力，進入初婚的比例相當的低。因此要等到結束最高學歷後才會進入初婚市場、考慮進入初婚。然而女性的初婚可能性會受到年齡帶來的社會規範與壓力影響，年齡越長，潛在的結婚對象也就越少，進入初婚的可能性越低。本研究想了解因為就學延後結束最高學歷年齡，而延遲進入初婚市場年齡的女性，她們的初婚可能性會有什麼變化？初婚可能性的年齡模式又是如何？透過存活分析，本研究結果發現：一、初婚可能性的分布形狀主要受到年齡影響，不同教育程度的分布形狀沒有明顯差異。二、進入初婚的年齡受到結束最高學歷時的年齡影響，結束最高學歷的年齡越晚，越晚進入初婚。三、受高等教育的女性在剛結束最高學歷教育後三年間進入婚姻的可能性，較未受高等教育的女性高。四、不論何種教育程度，初婚可能性將於30歲左右一致地下降，顯示女性進入初婚的可能性仍受到適婚年齡的限制。五、越晚近出生的女性，初婚可能性越低。最晚近出生的女性，初婚可能性不論教育程度呈現普遍皆低的狀態。 / This study foucuses on the women who were born in 1960-1980 in Taiwan and demonstrates the probability of these women's first marriage after finishing their highest educational degrees. In Taiwan, after 1980, women's marital status gradually changes from general married become delayed, or even not married. The marital situations of women who have higher education are in particular serious. Because young women in the school do not have independent economic ability, they do not consider entering first marriage untill they have completed highest educational degrees. However, due to the age norm and social pressure, women's probability of entering into first marriage will decline when they grow older. This study intends to figure out what the probabilitiy of women's first marriage is when they delay the timing of entering into the marriage market due to prolonging the years of education. Through survival analysis, this study found that: First, women's age determines the main shape of the probability distribution of the age at first marriage no matter what educational degrees they have. Second, women's age at first marriage is mainly affected by the age of her finishing highest education. Third, the probability of first marriage of the women who have higher educational degrees is higher than the others in the first five years after finishing education. Fourth, no matter what level of educational degrees, the hazard rate of entering into first marriage will decline rapidly after 30-year-old. Fifth, the more recent birth cohort is the lower the probability of first marriage no mater what educational degrees they have.