[pt] As impactantes transformações pelas quais o Brasil passou durante o início da década de 1990 exigiram mudanças profundas no setor elétrico. O Decreto n 5.163/2004 introduziu ao mercado brasileiro de energia elétrica o Ambiente de Contratação Livre (ACL), onde os agentes passaram a poder negociar livremente contratos bilaterais de compra e venda de energia. No Brasil, os agentes participantes estão expostos às bruscas variações do preço da energia no curto prazo, chamado de Preço de Liquidação das Diferenças – PLD. Devido às restrições existentes na malha de transmissão, os valores do PLD se distinguem entre os quatro Submercados existentes: Norte, Nordeste, Sul e Sudeste/Centro- Oeste. Ao fechar contratos em Submercados diferentes, o gerador deve vender a energia ao PLD local e comprá-la ao preço spot do Submercado de destino. Desta forma, o vendedor corre o risco de vender a um PLD mais baixo do que deverá comprar. O swap de submercado pode ser utilizado para anular esta exposição, mas cabe investigar o preço que cada parte deve estar disposta a pagar para fechar o negócio. Assim, é proposta uma abordagem pela Teoria da Utilidade para se chegar a estes valores. Dado que os Submercados Sudeste/Centro-Oeste e Nordeste atualmente transacionam entre si a maior carga, estes foram selecionados para avaliação. O ano de 2015 foi utilizado para delimitar o estudo. Presume-se que ambas as partes são avessas ao risco de forma decrescente e que há equilíbrio de forças na negociação. O valor final do contrato é estimado em 10,66 reais/MWh. / [en] The impacting transformations suffered by Brazil during the 1990s demanded profound changes in the eletrical sector.Decree 5.163/2004 established the Ambiente de ContrataçãoLivre (ACL), allowing participants to freely negotiate bilateral energy contracts. In Brazil, those who do so are exposed to extreme variations in spot prices, called Preço de Liquidação das Diferenças – PLD. Due to transmission capacity restrictions, PLD prices vary between the four existing submarkets: North, Northeast, South, and Southeast/Central-West. Dealing in different submarkets requires electricity generators to sell energy for local PLD and buy it for the spot price of the destination submarket. By doing so the seller may end up selling energy for a lower PLD than the buying price. Submarket swaps can be used for hedging, but what each party should be willing to pay requires investigation. Thus, to discover these prices, the Utility Theory is applied. Given that submarkets Southeast/Central-West and Northeast are currently the ones concentrating the greatest amount of transactions, these were selected for evaluation. Year 2015 was used to delimit the study. It is assumed that both parties are risk averse in a decreasing manner and that there is an equilibrium of forces in the negotiation. The final value of the contract is estimated at 10,66 reais/MWh.

This paper seeks to fill a gap in the literature regarding the consequences of banning ‘naked’ Credit Default Swaps (CDS). In particular, I use the European Union’s Ban on ‘naked” Sovereign CDS as an event study to evaluate the impact that banning such derivative products has on the price discovery process in the credit markets. Using both Granger Causality tests and a Vector Error Correction Model, I find that before November 1, 2012, CDS are the clear price leader in the credit markets. However, since the official date the regulation was put into effect, CDS’ price leadership was eroded. Moreover, after the ban, CDS and Bond Yield Spreads are no longer cointegrated in the long run, suggesting that different pricing mechanisms now exist between the two securities

Credit default swaptions (CDS options) are credit derivatives that are widely used by finan-cial institutions such as banks and hedging companies to manage their credit risk. These options are usually priced using Black-Scholes model, but the assumptions underlying this model do not always hold especially when solving complex financial problems. The proposed solution is to use numerical methods such as finite difference method (FDM) to approximate the solution of the Black-Scholes PDE in cases where closed form solutions cannot be obtained. The pricing of swaptions are important in financial markets, hence we specifically discuss the pricing of interest rate swaptions, CDS options, commodity swaptions and energy swap-tions using Black-Scholes model. Simple parabolic PDE known as heat equation given at (Higham, 2004) forms a foundations to understand the application of FDM when solving a PDE. Since, Black-Scholes PDE is also a parabolic equation it is transformed to a form of a heat equation (diffusion equation) by applying change of variables technique. FDM, specifically Crank-Nicolson method can be applied to the heat equation but in this dissertation it is applied directly to the Black-Scholes PDE to approximate its solution. Therefore, it is preferable to use Crank-Nicolson method because it is known to be second- order accurate, unconditionally stable, very flexible, suitable and can accommodate varia- tions in financial problems, (Duffy, 2008). The stability of this method is investigated using a matrix approach because it accommodates the effect of boundary conditions. To test the convergence of Crank-Nicolson method, it is compared with the Black-Scholes method used in (Tucker and Wei, 2005) to price CDS options. Conclusively the results obtained by Crank-Nicolson method to price CDS options are similar to those obtained using Black-Scholes method. / Thesis (MSc (Risk Analysis))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

Credit default swaptions (CDS options) are credit derivatives that are widely used by finan-cial institutions such as banks and hedging companies to manage their credit risk. These options are usually priced using Black-Scholes model, but the assumptions underlying this model do not always hold especially when solving complex financial problems. The proposed solution is to use numerical methods such as finite difference method (FDM) to approximate the solution of the Black-Scholes PDE in cases where closed form solutions cannot be obtained. The pricing of swaptions are important in financial markets, hence we specifically discuss the pricing of interest rate swaptions, CDS options, commodity swaptions and energy swap-tions using Black-Scholes model. Simple parabolic PDE known as heat equation given at (Higham, 2004) forms a foundations to understand the application of FDM when solving a PDE. Since, Black-Scholes PDE is also a parabolic equation it is transformed to a form of a heat equation (diffusion equation) by applying change of variables technique. FDM, specifically Crank-Nicolson method can be applied to the heat equation but in this dissertation it is applied directly to the Black-Scholes PDE to approximate its solution. Therefore, it is preferable to use Crank-Nicolson method because it is known to be second- order accurate, unconditionally stable, very flexible, suitable and can accommodate varia- tions in financial problems, (Duffy, 2008). The stability of this method is investigated using a matrix approach because it accommodates the effect of boundary conditions. To test the convergence of Crank-Nicolson method, it is compared with the Black-Scholes method used in (Tucker and Wei, 2005) to price CDS options. Conclusively the results obtained by Crank-Nicolson method to price CDS options are similar to those obtained using Black-Scholes method. / Thesis (MSc (Risk Analysis))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

1 Legal Issues of Derivatives Abstract Derivatives symbolize one of the most successful instruments of international markets in 20. century boosted by ongoing globalization and never-ending technological progress. Though origins of derivatives could had been found in Ancient times, the real "explosion" of derivatives has blown in last two centuries. The essential objective and purpose of the thesis is firstly to analyse the true meaning and definition of the term "derivative" and surrounding legal issues and secondly to provide comprehensive list of basic derivatives according to the historical and financial-economic indicators. My thesis consists of six chapters. First two introductory chapters deal with the general aspects of derivatives, such as definition and legal nature. Derivatives, generally speaking, are legal contracts between market participants allowing contracting parties to transfer risks connected with particular underlying to another party or speculate on market movements in order to gain profits. Derivatives are traded in both, standardized and OTC markets, which embodied them with ultimate flexibility and range. Assessing true legal nature of derivatives stands for one of the main issues concerned by academics and practitioners, in particular whether derivatives fall under the category of...

The objective of this project is to investigate and model the quantitative connection between market prices of credit default swaps and the market perceived probability and timing of default by the underlying borrower. We quantify the credit risk of a borrower in a two-way relationship: calculate the term structure of default probabilities from the market prices of traded CDSs and calculate prices of CDSs from the probability distribution of the time-to-default.

Thesis advisor: Philp E. Strahan / This dissertation is comprised of three essays which examine the interactions among credit market innovation, corporate finance, and information intermediaries. In the first essay, I study the role of credit default swaps (CDS) in reducing credit supply frictions for corporate borrowers. I find that firms whose CDS is included in a major CDS index--the CDX North American Investment Grade index--have significantly lower cost of debt, and in response rely more heavily on debt for external financing. To address the potential endogeneity of index addition, I use a regression discontinuity design by exploiting the index inclusion rule, which allows me to compare firms that are just above and below the index inclusion cutoff. I show that index inclusion improves the liquidity of underlying single-name CDSs, which enables constituent firms' debtholders to better hedge their credit risk exposure. My findings suggest that CDS market benefits investment-grade borrowers by alleviating the supply-side frictions in credit markets. In the second essay, we investigate the role of proxy advisory firms in shareholder voting. Proxy advisory firms have become important players in corporate governance, but the extent of their influence over shareholder votes is debated. We estimate the effect of Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommendations on voting outcomes by exploiting exogenous variation in ISS recommendations generated by a cutoff rule in its voting guidelines. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that in 2010-2011, a negative ISS recommendation on a say-on-pay proposal leads to a 25 percentage point reduction in say-on-pay voting support, suggesting strong influence over shareholder votes. We also use our setting to examine the informational role of ISS recommendations. In the third essay, I examine how Moody's ratings have responded to the introduction of Credit Default Swap (CDS) market--an important innovation in credit markets in the past decade. I find that ratings quality of CDS firms, measured as default predictive power, improved significantly after the onset of CDS trading, consistent with a disciplining role of the CDS market. I show that ratings become more accurate in terms of less failure to warn (i.e. rating a defaulter too high) which is not accompanied by a rise of false alarms. In addition, rating downgrades are significantly more likely to be preceded by negative outlook or a watch for downgrade. The results are robust to controlling for the endogeneity of CDS trading. Overall, the evidence suggests that, in response to the CDS market developments, Moody's ratings become better at differentiating bad issuers from good ones as opposed to a "cookie-cutter'' approach to more conservative ratings. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2016. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Finance.

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) instruments - as an indicator of credit risk - were one of the most prominent innovations in financial engineering. Very limited literature existed on the drivers of CDS spreads before the financial crisis due to the opacity of this market and its lack of transparency. First, this thesis investigates the drivers of CDS spread in the UK banking sector, by considering the role of the housing market, over the period of 2004-2011. I find that, in the long-run, house price dynamics were the main factor contributing to wider CDS spreads. In addition, I show that a rise in stock prices lead to higher availability of capital and therefore increased bank borrowing activities, which led to lower credit risk. Furthermore, findings show that with higher aggregate bank liquidity, banks tend to grant more loans to low-income consumers, thus increasing bank credit risk. In addition, in the short-run, I employ the Structural VAR by imposing short-run restrictions to identify the five shocks arising from the CDS spread, the house price index, the yield spread, the TED spread, and the FTSE100. The SVAR findings indicate that a positive shock to house prices significantly increases the CDS spread in the medium-term, in the UK banking sector. In addition, apart from its own shock, the house price shock explains a big part of the variance (nearly 20%) in CDS spread. These results remained robust even after changing the ordering of the variables in the Structural VAR. Second, considering the bank-level factors across 30 countries and 115 banks, I find most significant bank-level drivers of the CDS spread were asset quality, liquidity and the operations income ratio. As such, banks with better asset quality, high levels of liquidity and operations income ratio were subject to lower CDS spreads and credit risk. Furthermore, larger banks were found to be more risky than smaller banks. We have conducted the U-test and our results indicate the presence of a U-shape relationship between bank size and bank CDS spread. It should be noted that in order to ensure that our results are robust, we used several estimation frameworks, including the FE, RE and alternative Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approaches, which all prove the existence of a U-shape relationship between the CDS spread and bank size. In addition, we find a threshold level of bank size, which shows that banks growing beyond this point are subject to wider CDS spreads. Finally, I consider the difference in financial systems at country-level and regulatory structures at bank-level, in a panel setting, over the period of 2004-2011. At country-level, my findings directly link financial deepening to higher credit risk, reflecting a sign of credit bubble. Besides, at bank-level, I confirm my previous findings whereby asset quality, liquidity and operations income remain significant drivers of the CDS spread.

Unique and proprietary data of the illiquid, one-year non cancelable for three month Bermudan swaps (1Y NC 3M swaps) and one-year non callable for three months Bermudan CDs (1Y NC 3M CDs), provides evidence of market efficiency. The 1Y NC 3M swap and 1Y NC 3M CD markets efficiently reflected unexpected economic information. The 1Y NC 3M swaption premiums also followed the European one-year into three-month (1Y into 3M) swaption volatilities. Swaption premiums were computed by pricing non-optional instruments using the quoted 1Y NC 3M swap rates and the par value swap rates and taking the difference between them. Swaption premiums ranged from a slight negative premium to a 0.21 percent premium. The average swaption premium during the study period was 0.02 percent to 0.04 percent. The initial swaption premiums were over 0.20 percent while the final swaption premiums were 0.02 percent to 0.04 percent. Premiums peaked and waned throughout the study period depending on market uncertainty as reflected in major national economic announcements, Federal Reserve testimonies and foreign currency devaluations. Negative swaption premiums were not necessarily irrational or quoting errors. Frequently, traders obligated to provide market quotes to customers do not have an interest and relay that lack of interest to the customer through a nonaggressive quote. The short-dated 1Y NC 3M swaption premiums closely followed 3M into 1Y swaption volatilities, indicating the 3M into 1Y swaption market closely follows the 1Y NC 3M swaption market and that similar market factors affect both markets or both markets efficiently share information. Movements in 1Y NC 3M swaption premiums and in 3M into 1Y swaption volatilities reflected a rational response by market participants to unexpected economic information. As market uncertainty decreased in the market place, risk measured both by swaption premiums and swaption volatilities decreased; vice verse when economic factors showed increases in economic uncertainty.

As evidenced by its market size, credit default swaps (CDSs) has been the cornerstone product of the credit derivatives market. The central question that I attempt to answer in this thesis is: why and how does the introduction of CDS market affect bank loan financing? Theoretical works predict some potential effects from CDS market, but empirical evidence is still rare. This dissertation empirically examines the effects of CDS trading on bank loan financing. In chapter one, I find that banks increase average loan amount and charge higher loan spread after the onset of CDS trading on the borrower’s debt. Also, credit quality of the borrower deteriorates for those with active CDS trading. These findings suggest that banks tend to take on more credit risk by issuing larger loans and by lending to riskier firms that could not obtain bank loan in the absence of CDS. The risk-taking by banks ultimately transmitted to higher bank-level risk profile. The second chapter is the first empirical study of CDS’ role in determining loan syndicate structure. I find larger lead bank share when CDS is in place. Moreover, participation of credit derivatives trading by lead banks is much larger than by the participants, suggesting that lead banks have better chance to use CDS to their own advantage. Further analysis shows that lead banks retain an even larger share when it is more experienced dealing with the borrower and when information asymmetry between the lender and the borrower is less severe. Different from conventional wisdom about moral hazard in syndicated lending, our findings suggest that the lead bank likely takes on more credit risk voluntarily due to its increased financing capacity. The third chapter focuses on the effects of CDS on debt contracting. Given that current evidence does not show CDS reduces average cost of debt, we conjecture that the diversification benefit is reflected by relaxation of restrictions imposed on borrowers. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find the marginal effect from CDS trading on covenant strictness measure is 16.8% on average. One standard deviation increase in the number of outstanding CDS contracts loosens net worth covenants by approximately 8.9%. Using various endogeneity controls, we are able to show the loosening of covenants is due to the reduced level of debtholder-shareholder conflict. Furthermore, the loosening effect is stronger when the expected renegotiation cost is larger, consistent with the view that CDS mitigates contracting friction and improves contracting efficiency. Overall, this dissertation attempts to provide first empirical evidence on how CDS affects bank loan financing. We focus the analysis on loan issuance, syndicate structure and contracting. The findings suggest that banks lend to riskier borrowers in the presence of CDS. On a positive note, banks tend to impose less restrictive covenants on its borrower, which may mitigate frictions in lending market in terms of ex ante bargaining and ex post renegotiation cost. / published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy