O gerenciamento dos custos com a compra de energia elétrica para atendimento do mercado consumidor é um assunto que assumiu, nos últimos anos, papel relevante nas distribuidoras. Este fenômeno pode ser explicado pela crescente participação dos custos de energia comprada, para suprimento do mercado cativo, no desempenho operacional dessas empresas, bem como pelas recentes alterações na regulamentação que agregaram ao processo da compra a necessidade de um altíssimo nível de assertividade. Considerando a existência de uma lacuna na literatura da área, a despeito de trabalhos que tratam do entendimento e gerenciamento do repasse dos custos com a compra de energia elétrica pelas distribuidoras e da análise de riscos associados às incertezas pertinentes ao processo, propõe-se, neste trabalho, uma metodologia para representar os custos com a compra de energia elétrica no fluxo de caixa da distribuidora, assim como modelo que auxilie no gerenciamento dos riscos associados aos desvios das variáveis que compõem o processo, em relação a um cenário de referência. Para tanto, são apresentadas, através de equações, as regras de repasse com a aquisição de energia elétrica para a tarifa de fornecimento do consumidor final e uma metodologia empírica para análise de risco baseada em modelagem estatística, com o suporte de modelos econométricos, permitindo uma varredura de cenários plausíveis via simulação Monte Carlo. Com isso, para uma compra energia que atenda às necessidades de consumo de uma distribuidora ao longo de um ano, tal modelo deve ser capaz de informar a disponibilidade de caixa da empresa para fazer frente às despesas com a compra de energia em determinada data futura ou, ainda, deve ser capaz de permitir a avaliação do valor presente resultante dos desembolsos versus recebimentos ao final do período de repasse, aferidos através de metodologia com enfoque probabilístico. / The management of the costs related to electric energy purchase to supply the market is an issue that assumed, in the last years, a relevant role in the distribution companies. This phenomenon may be explained by the increasing participation of the quoted costs in the operational performance of such companies and by the recent changes in the rules which brought to the energy acquisition process a need of very high assertiveness. Considering the existence of an important gap in the area literature, in despite of papers which approach the understanding and management of cost pass through with electric energy purchase by the distributors, and the risk analysis connected to the uncertainties relevant to the process, in this work it is developed a new methodology to represent the costs with electric energy purchase in the distributors cash flow, as well as a model that helps in the management of risks related to the variable changes in relation to a reference scenario for the whole process. In this way, the energy supply costs pass through rules are presented with the aid of mathematical equations, as well as an empirical methodology is proposed, taking advantage of statistical and econometric models, in order to making feasible a Monte Carlo simulation aiming at screening the universe of scenarios that could happen in real life. Furthermore, giving the energy supply costs throughout one year, the model should be capable to forecast the company cash available to face these costs in a certain future date and, besides that, the model should be capable to calculate the present value arising from the disbursement versus the receipts along the time, till the end of the pass through period, in a probabilistic focus.

O gerenciamento dos custos com a compra de energia elétrica para atendimento do mercado consumidor é um assunto que assumiu, nos últimos anos, papel relevante nas distribuidoras. Este fenômeno pode ser explicado pela crescente participação dos custos de energia comprada, para suprimento do mercado cativo, no desempenho operacional dessas empresas, bem como pelas recentes alterações na regulamentação que agregaram ao processo da compra a necessidade de um altíssimo nível de assertividade. Considerando a existência de uma lacuna na literatura da área, a despeito de trabalhos que tratam do entendimento e gerenciamento do repasse dos custos com a compra de energia elétrica pelas distribuidoras e da análise de riscos associados às incertezas pertinentes ao processo, propõe-se, neste trabalho, uma metodologia para representar os custos com a compra de energia elétrica no fluxo de caixa da distribuidora, assim como modelo que auxilie no gerenciamento dos riscos associados aos desvios das variáveis que compõem o processo, em relação a um cenário de referência. Para tanto, são apresentadas, através de equações, as regras de repasse com a aquisição de energia elétrica para a tarifa de fornecimento do consumidor final e uma metodologia empírica para análise de risco baseada em modelagem estatística, com o suporte de modelos econométricos, permitindo uma varredura de cenários plausíveis via simulação Monte Carlo. Com isso, para uma compra energia que atenda às necessidades de consumo de uma distribuidora ao longo de um ano, tal modelo deve ser capaz de informar a disponibilidade de caixa da empresa para fazer frente às despesas com a compra de energia em determinada data futura ou, ainda, deve ser capaz de permitir a avaliação do valor presente resultante dos desembolsos versus recebimentos ao final do período de repasse, aferidos através de metodologia com enfoque probabilístico. / The management of the costs related to electric energy purchase to supply the market is an issue that assumed, in the last years, a relevant role in the distribution companies. This phenomenon may be explained by the increasing participation of the quoted costs in the operational performance of such companies and by the recent changes in the rules which brought to the energy acquisition process a need of very high assertiveness. Considering the existence of an important gap in the area literature, in despite of papers which approach the understanding and management of cost pass through with electric energy purchase by the distributors, and the risk analysis connected to the uncertainties relevant to the process, in this work it is developed a new methodology to represent the costs with electric energy purchase in the distributors cash flow, as well as a model that helps in the management of risks related to the variable changes in relation to a reference scenario for the whole process. In this way, the energy supply costs pass through rules are presented with the aid of mathematical equations, as well as an empirical methodology is proposed, taking advantage of statistical and econometric models, in order to making feasible a Monte Carlo simulation aiming at screening the universe of scenarios that could happen in real life. Furthermore, giving the energy supply costs throughout one year, the model should be capable to forecast the company cash available to face these costs in a certain future date and, besides that, the model should be capable to calculate the present value arising from the disbursement versus the receipts along the time, till the end of the pass through period, in a probabilistic focus.

The energy demand is steadily increasing, and the electricity sector is undergoing a severe change in this decade. The primary drivers, such as the need to decarbonize the power industry and megatrends for more distributed and renewable systems, are resulting in revolutionary changes in our lifestyle and industry. The power grid cannot be easily or quickly be upgraded, as investment decisions, construction approvals, and payback time are the main factors to consider. Therefore, new technology, energy storage, tariff reform, and new business models are rapidly changing and challenging the conventional industry. In recent times, industrial peak shaving application has sparked an increased interest in battery energy storage system (BESS).  This work investigated BESS’s potential from peak shaving and Time-of-use (TOU) applications for a Culture-house in Skellefteå. Available literature provides the knowledge of various BESS applications, tariff systems, and how battery degradation functions. The predicted electrical load demand of the culture-house for 2019 is obtained from a consultant company Incoord. The linear optimization was implemented in MATLAB using optimproblem function to perform peak shaving and time-of-use application for the Culture-hose BESS. A cost-optimal charging/discharging strategy was derived through an optimization algorithm by analyzing the culture-house electrical demand and Skellefteå Kraft billing system. The decisional variable decides when to charge/discharge the battery for minimum battery degradation and electricity purchase charges from the grid.   Techno-economic viability is analyzed from BESS investment cost, peak-power tariff, battery lifespan, and batter aging perspective. Results indicate that the current BESS price and peak-power tariff of Skellefteå Kraft are not suitable for peak shaving. Electricity bill saving is too low to consider TOU application due to high battery degradation. However, combining peak shaving & TOU does generate more profit annually due to additional savings from the electricity bill. However, including TOU also leads to higher battery degradation, making it not currently a viable application. A future scenario suggests a decrease in investment cost, resulting in a shorter payback period.  The case study also analyses the potential in the second-life battery, where they are purchased at 80 % State of Health (SoH) for peak shaving application. Second-life batteries are assumed to last until 70 % or 60 % before End of Life (EOL). The benefit-cost ratio indicates that second-life batteries are an attractive investment if batteries can perform until 60% end of life, it would be an excellent investment from an economic and sustainability perspective. Future work suggests integrating more BESS applications into the model to make BESS an economically viable project.