This project is associated with statistical methods to find the unknown parameters of a model. It is the statistical investigation of the algorithm with respect to accuracy (the Cramer-Rao bound and L-curve technique) and optimization of the algorithmic parameters. This project aims to estimate the true temperature (final temperature) of a certain liquid in a container by using initial measurements (readings) from a temperature probe with a known time constant. Basically, the final temperature of the liquid was estimated, before the probe reached its final reading. The probe obeys a simple first-order differential equation model. Based on the model of the probe and the measurement data the estimate was calculated of the ’true’ temperature in the container by using a maximum likelihood approach to parameter estimation.  The initial temperature was also investigated. Modelling, analysis, calculations, and simulations of this problem were explored.

High Intensity Focused Ultrasound (HIFU) is a new cancer thermal therapy method which has achieved encouraging results in clinics recently. However, the lack of a temperature monitoring makes it hard to apply widely, safely and efficiently. Conventional ultrasonic temperature estimation based on echo strain suffers from artifacts caused by signal distortion over time, leading to poor estimation and visualization of the 2D temperature map. This thesis presents a novel model-based stochastic framework for ultrasonic temperature estimation, which combines the temperature information from the ultrasound images and a theoretical model of the heat diffusion. Consequently the temperature estimation is more consistent over time and its visualisation is improved. There are 3 main contributions of this thesis related to: improving the conventional echo strain method to estimate temperature, developing and applying approximate heat models to model temperature, and finally combining the estimation and the models. First in the echo strain based temperature estimation, a robust displacement estimator is first introduced to remove displacement outliers caused by the signal distortion over time due to the thermo-acoustic lens effect. To transfer the echo strain to temperature more accurately, an experimental method is designed to model their relationship using polynomials. Experimental results on a gelatine phantom show that the accuracy of the temperature estimation is of the order of 0.1 ◦C. This is better than results reported previously of 0.5 ◦C in a rubber phantom. Second in the temperature modelling, heat models are derived approximately as Gaussian functions which are mathematically simple. Simulated results demonstrate that the approximate heat models are reasonable. The simulated temperature result is analytical and hence computed in much less than 1 second, while the conventional simulation of using finite element methods requires about 25 minutes under the same conditions. Finally, combining the estimation and the heat models is the main contribution of this thesis. A 2D spatial adaptive Kalman filter with the predictive step defined by the shape model from the heat models is applied to the temperature map estimated from ultrasound images. It is shown that use of the temperature shape model enables more reliable temperature estimation in the presence of distorted or blurred strain measurements which are typically found in practice. The experimental results on in-vitro bovine liver show that the visualisation on the temperature map over time is more consistent and the iso-temperature contours are clearly visualised.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This research was conducted with the objective of studying the dynamics of soil temperature and water content as a function of the different amounts of black oat residue (Avena sativa Schreb.) in the soil cover, through existing relationships with meteorological variables, as well as the simulation of these dynamics using Hydrus-1D. The experiment was carried out in an Argissolo Vermelho Distrófico arênico (Rhodic Paleudalf) in Santa Maria - RS. The treatments consisted of the use of 3, 6 and 9 Mg ha-1 of oat straw in soil cover and an uncovered soil treatment (0 Mg ha-1). Soil temperature and water content at different depths, in addition to meteorological conditions, were measured during the period from December 1, 2014 to December 6, 2015. The effect of straw on soil temperature was analyzed at different depths, correlating covered soil temperature with uncovered soil temperature. The equations used for estimating soil surface temperature were adjusted by the least square method, where the surface temperature is estimated as a function of air temperature and incident solar radiation, and its performance compared to the sinusoidal equation. The hydraulic and thermal parameters required for the simulation of soil temperature and water content were optimized by the reverse solution and validated on uncovered soils. The optimized parameters were used to simulate the temperature and water content in soils with different amounts of straw with two contour conditions for the soil surface temperature, one measure and the other estimated. The straw affected the soil temperature down to 50 cm deep. The uncovered soil temperature at which inversion of the straw effect occurred was 19.6 ° C at the surface and 15.8 ° C at 50 cm depth. The presence of straw keeps the soil warmer than the soil without straw at the beginning of the day, but prevents it from warming similar to the ground without straw for the rest of the day, causing in turn that, bare soil gets warmer during the day and cools more at night compared to the covered soil. This temperature was similar in all amounts of straw, but decreased in depth. The temperature of the soil surface can be estimated as a function of air temperature and solar radiation. In uncovered soil the proposed equation presents better performance compared to the sinusoidal equation. In covered soils the sinusoidal equation had better performance. The optimal hydraulic and thermal parameters of the soil improved the simulations of temperature and soil water content. The soil temperature with different amounts of oat straw can be simulated using Hydrus-1D, and the use of the contour condition with the measured surface temperature performed better than the estimated surface temperature. / Esta pesquisa foi conduzida com o objetivo de estudar a dinâmica da temperatura e do conteúdo de água do solo em função de diferentes quantidades de resíduos de aveia preta disposta em cobertura por meio das relações existente com variáveis meteorológicas, bem como a representação destes comportamentos por meio de simulação utilizando o Hydrus-1D. O experimento foi conduzido em um Argissolo Vermelho Distrófico arênico em Santa Maria - RS. Os tratamentos consistiram da utilização de três diferentes níveis de cobertura do solo (3, 6 e 9 Mg ha-1) com palha de aveia (Avena sativa) e um tratamento com solo descoberto (0 Mg ha-1). A temperatura do solo e o conteúdo volumétrico de água, em diferentes profundidades, além das condições meteorológicas, foram mensurados durante o período de 01/12/2014 a 06/12/2015. O efeito da cobertura do solo com resíduos vegetais na temperatura do solo foi analisado nas diferentes profundidades correlacionando a temperatura do solo com palha e a temperatura do solo descoberto. O método dos mínimos quadrados foi usado para gerar equações de estimativa da temperatura da superfície do solo em função da temperatura do ar e da radiação solar e o seu desempenho foi comparado com a equação senoidal. Os parâmetros hidráulicos e térmicos, necessários para a simulação da temperatura e do conteúdo de água do solo, com o Hydrus-1D, foram otimizados por meio da solução inversa e validados em solos descobertos. Os parâmetros otimizados foram usados para a simulação da temperatura e do conteúdo de água em solos com diferentes quantidades de palha com duas condições de contorno para a temperatura da superfície do solo, uma medida e outra estimada. A palha exerce influência sobre a temperatura do solo até 50 cm de profundidade. A temperatura do solo descoberto em que ocorre a inversão do efeito da palha foi de 19,6 °C na superfície e 15,8 °C a 50 cm de profundidade. A presença de cobertura de palha mantém o solo mais aquecido que o solo sem palha no início do dia, mas impede que ele se aqueça igual ao solo sem palha no restante do dia. Assim resultando em uma percepção de que a palha aquece e resfria o solo em relação à temperatura do solo desnudo. Essa temperatura foi semelhante em todas as quantidades de palha, porém decresceu em profundidade. A estimativa da temperatura da superfície do solo pode ser estimada em função da temperatura do ar e da radiação solar. Em solo descoberto as equações propostas tem melhor desempenho que a equação senoidal. Em solos cobertos a equação senoidal teve melhor desempenho. Os parâmetros hidráulicos e térmicos do solo otimizados melhoraram as simulações da temperatura e conteúdo de água do solo. A simulação da temperatura do solo com diferentes quantidades de cobertura vegetal pode ser simulada usando o Hydrus-1D, sendo que o uso da condição de contorno com a temperatura da superfície medido teve melhor desempenho que o utilizando a temperatura da superfície estimada.

No description available.

The organic materials used for stator winding insulation are subject to deterioration from thermal, electrical, and mechanical stresses. Stator winding insulation breakdown due to excessive thermal stress is one of the major causes of electric machine failures; therefore, prevention of such a failure is crucial for increasing machine reliability and minimizing financial loss due to motor failure. This work focuses on the development of an efficient and reliable stator winding temperature estimation scheme for small to medium size mains-fed induction machines. The motivation for the stator winding temperature estimation is to develop a sensorless temperature monitoring scheme and provide an accurate temperature estimate that is capable of responding to the changes in the motors cooling capability. A discussion on the two major types of temperature estimation techniques, thermal model-based and parameter-based temperature techniques, reveals that neither method can protect motors without sacrificing the estimation accuracy or motor performance. Based on the evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of these two types of temperature estimation techniques, a new online stator winding temperature estimation scheme for small to medium size mains-fed induction machines is proposed in this work. The new stator winding temperature estimation scheme is based on a hybrid thermal model. By correlating the rotor temperature with the stator temperature, the hybrid thermal model unifies the thermal model-based and the parameter-based temperature estimation techniques. Experimental results validate the proposed scheme for stator winding temperature monitoring. The entire algorithm is fast, efficient and reliable, making it suitable for implementation in real time stator winding temperature monitoring.

Dans le cas des installations photovoltaïques, l’onduleur est le premier élément défaillant dont il est difficile d’anticiper la panne, et peu d’études ont été faites sur la fiabilité de ce type de convertisseur. L'objectif de cette thèse est de proposer des outils et méthodes en vue d'étudier le vieillissement des modules de puissance dans ce type d'application en se focalisant sur les phénomènes de dégradation liés à des aspects thermomécaniques. En règle générale, le vieillissement accéléré des modules de puissance est effectué dans des conditions aggravées de courant (Cyclage Actif) ou de température (Cyclage Passif) pour accélérer les processus de vieillissement. Malheureusement, en appliquant ce type de vieillissement accéléré, des mécanismes de défaillances qui ne se produisent pas dans la vraie application peuvent être observés et, inversement, d'autres mécanismes qui se produisent habituellement peuvent ne pas apparaître. La première partie de la thèse se focalise donc sur la mise en place d'une méthode de vieillissement accéléré des composants semi-conducteurs des onduleurs photovoltaïques. Cela est fait en s’appuyant sur l’analyse des profils de mission du courant efficace de sortie des onduleurs et de la température ambiante, extraits des centrales photovoltaïques situées au sud de la France sur plusieurs années. Ces profils sont utilisés pour étudier les dynamiques du courant photovoltaïque, et sont introduites dans des modèles numériques pour estimer les pertes et les variations de la température de jonction des semi-conducteurs utilisés dans les onduleurs, en utilisant l’algorithme de comptage de cycles "Rainflow". Cette méthode est ensuite mise en œuvre dans deux bancs expérimentaux. Dans le premier, les composants sous test sont des modules IGBT. Les composants sont mis en œuvre dans un banc de cyclage utilisant la méthode d'opposition et mettant en œuvre le profil de vieillissement défini précédemment. Un dispositif in-situ de suivi d'indicateurs de vieillissement (impédance thermique et résistance dynamique) est également proposé et évalué. Le deuxième banc est consacré à l'étude de modules de puissance à base de MOSFET SiC. Le vieillissement est effectué dans les mêmes conditions que pour les modules IGBT et de nombreux indicateurs électriques sont monitorés mais, cette fois ci, en extrayant les composants de l'onduleur de cyclage. Les résultats obtenus ont permis de déterminer des indicateurs de vieillissement d’IGBT et de MOSFET SiC utilisés dans un onduleur photovoltaïque / In the case of photovoltaic installations, the DC/AC inverter has the highest failure rate, and the anticipation of its breakdowns is still difficult, while few studies have been done on the reliability of this type of inverter. The aim of this PhD is to propose tools and methods to study the ageing of power modules in this type of application, by focusing on ageing phenomena related to thermo-mechanical aspects. As a general rule, the accelerated ageing of power modules is carried out under aggravated conditions of current (Active Cycling) or temperature (Passive Cycling) in order to accelerate the ageing process. Unfortunately, when applying this type of accelerated ageing tests, some failure mechanisms that do not occur in the real application could be observed, while inversely, other mechanisms that usually occur could not be recreated. The first part of the PhD focuses on the implementation of an accelerated ageing method of the semiconductor devices inside photovoltaic inverters. This is accomplished by analyzing the mission profiles of the inverter’s output current and ambient temperature, extracted over several years from photovoltaic power plants located in the south of France. These profiles are used to study photovoltaic current dynamics, and are introduced into numerical models to estimate losses and junction temperature variations of semiconductors used in inverters, using the cycle counting algorithm “Rainflow”. This method is then performed in two experimental test benches. In the first one, the devices under test are IGBT modules, where the accelerated ageing profile designed is implemented using the opposition method. Moreover, an in-situ setup for monitoring ageing indicators (thermal impedance and dynamic resistance) is also proposed and evaluated. The second bench is devoted to study the ageing of SiC MOSFET power modules. The accelerated ageing test is carried out under the same conditions as for the IGBT modules with more monitored electrical indicators, but this time by disconnecting the semiconductor devices from the inverter. The results obtained allowed to determine several potential ageing indicators of IGBTs and SiC MOSFETs used in a photovoltaic inverter

Cette thèse s'inscrit dans l'amélioration de la gestion du trafic aérien. Le vent et la température sont deux paramètres omniprésents, subis, et à l'origine de nombreux biais de prédiction qui altèrent le suivi des trajectoires. Nous proposons une méthode pour limiter ces biais. Le concept "Wind and Température Networking" améliore la prédiction de trajectoire en utilisant le vent et la température mesurés par les avions voisins. Nous détaillons les effets de la température sur l'avion, permettant sa prise en compte. L'évaluation du concept est faite sur 8000 vols. Nous traitons du calcul de trajectoires optimales en présence de vent prédit, pour remplacer les actuelles routes de l'Atlantique Nord, et aboutir à des groupes de trajectoires optimisées et robustes. Dans la conclusion, nous présentons d'autres champs d'applications du partage de vents, et abordons les besoins en nouvelles infrastructures et protocoles de communication, nécessaires à la prise en compte de ce nouveau concept. / This thesis is related to air traffic management systems current changes. On the ground and in flight, trajectory calculation methods and available data differ. Wind and temperature are two ubiquitous parameters that are subject to and cause prediction bias. We propose a concept to limit this bias. Our "Wind and Temperature Networking" concept improves trajectory prediction, using wind and temperature information from neighboring aircraft. We detail the effects of temperature on the aircraft performances, allowing for temperature to be taken into account. The concept evaluation is done on 8000 flights. We discuss the calculation of optimal trajectories in the presence of predicted winds, to replace the current North Atlantic Tracks, and to provide optimized and robust groups of trajectories. The conclusion of this thesis presents other fields of wind sharing applications, and addresses the need for new telecommunications infrastructures and protocols.