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In this dissertation project, I make three separate contributions on how we can improve aggregate election forecasting models with respect to modeling choices, interpretability, and performance. Two of the three papers are applications to particular cases, the U.S. and France specifically, while the third points to a cross-national pattern in polling errors. The first paper addresses how we can make more reasonable prior choices for key parameters – such as the variability of non-sampling error – by using past pre-election polls. I showcase this approach on U.S. presidential elections. The second paper shows how to create and aggregate predictions in a multi-party contest while keeping the individual forecasts intact. This is useful to see convergences or divergences in the forecasts which might affect our confidence in the aggregate prediction. I develop a new aggregate forecasting model for French presidential elections to demonstrate this idea. The last paper shows and investigates a pattern in polling errors. We see that across multiple countries and electoral systems, polling errors favor the lesser party in two-party contests, i.e. polling errors favor Democratic candidates in Republican states and vice versa. We demonstrate a simple adjustment procedure based on this pattern to reduce the mean absolute polling error. We achieve a 16% reduction in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Water supply forecasting in the western United States is the prediction of the volume of water passing a given point on a stream during the primary snowmelt runoff season. Most water supply forecasts are produced from multiple linear regression models using snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow measurements as independent variables. In recent years, conceptual watershed simulation models, typically using a time step of one day, have also been used to produce these forecasts. This study examines model usage for: water supply forecasting in the West and has three specific purposes. The first is to examine the traditional usage of multiple linear regression and develop improved regression techniques to overcome several recognized weaknesses in traditional practice. Four techniques have been used in this study to improve water supply forecasts based on regression. They are: (1) basing the regression model only on data: known at forecast time (no future data); (2) principal components regression; (3) cross-validation; and (4) systematic searching for optimal or near-optimal combinations of variables. The second purpose of the study is to develop a monthly streamflow simulation model suitable for use in water supply forecasting. Such a model has not previously been used in this application, and it provides a forecasting tool midway in complexity between regression procedures and conceptual watershed simulation models. The third purpose of the study is to compare the accuracy of forecasts from regression, the monthly model developed here, and two conceptual watershed simulation models. It has generally been assumed, but not tested, that complex simulation models will give more accurate forecasts than simpler models. This study attempts to begin determining if this is true. Conceptual modeling results from previous studies on three basins in Idaho and Montana were obtained to represent current practice in the usage of this type of model. The results of the study led to the following conclusions: (1) significant improvements in forecast accuracy over past practice with regression can be obtained by the use of the four techniques developed here; (2) the monthly model performed better than the conceptual watershed models most of the time, for both seasonal volumes and monthly flows; (3) for the three test watersheds, regression provided the best forecast accuracy among the three modeling techniques most of the time, for both seasonal volumes and monthly flows; (4) optimal use of conceptual watershed models requires automated calibration schemes; and (5) in basins of complex orography, denser data networks will be required to calculate meaningful values of mean areal precipitation. This study has contributed to the practice of water supply forecasting by providing improvements to regression techniques, providing a new monthly model, developing a mean areal precipitation and temperature procedure based on kriging, and giving some initial direction for further investigations in the use of conceptual watershed models. The inability of the two simulation approaches to surpass regression in forecast accuracy brings up several issues with respect to modeling. These issues are in the areas of model calibration, model conceptualization, spatial and temporal aggregation, and areal averaging of input data. Further investigation is required to elucidate these issues before clear conclusions can be made about the relative forecasting abilities of simple and complex models. Further investigation is also required to study water management decision making and the kinds and accuracies of forecast information required to optimize these decisions.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / It is not unreasonable to surmise that public sentiment views stock market behavior as an indicator of economic health. Historically, movements in the the stock market indeed correspond to business cycles, but this is not always the case, and the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a distinct case to highlight such an irregularity. The contrast between the behavior of the stock market and that of the economy during the pandemic compels an analysis of the pandemic's actual impact on the stock market, and this paper finds a negative and significant relationship between the interpolated daily closing prices of the S&P 500 and the daily number of COVID-19 cases. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2023. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

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Americans view neutrality in the 1790s as the far-seeing wisdom of the Founders and a weak power's common-sense approach to a transatlantic war in which it could not afford to get involved. Far from this benign image of prudence, however, neutrality in the Early Republic was controversial: it was a style and paradigm of foreign policy that grappled with the consequences of a democratic politics exacerbated by diplomatic crises. Far from promoting tranquility, neutrality provoked uproar from the very beginning. Intense print battles erupted over sensational exposés of foreign influence and conspiracy, reverberating through the international, national, and local levels simultaneously. Print exposés of foreign intrigue provoked partisan warfare that raised the larger, unsettled (and unsettling) issues of the national interest, the exercise of federal power, and the relationship between the people and their government. This dynamic reflected and exacerbated preexisting sectional fissures in the union, triggering recourse to the politics of slavery. As a result, the politics of slavery calibrated the competing national visions of the emerging Federalists and Republicans, defining the limits of American independence while challenging the ability of the United States to remain neutral. Drawing on the efforts of diplomatic historians, political historians and literary scholars, this work illustrates the mutually constitutive relationship between print politics, foreign relations, and the politics of slavery in the Early Republic. It argues that neutrality was a style of foreign policy that both political parties used to contain sectionalism and faction, and that print politics and the politics of slavery combined to create a dynamic that made that style malleable. / History

The training of Latin American militaries at the United States Army School of the Americas has lasted through many stages of U.S. foreign policy. The training of approximately 55,000 Latin American civilian, military, and police personnel throughout the USARSA's 54-year existence placed the United States in an influential position to achieve U.S. national interests. Prior to World War II, the training of Latin American militaries was intended to supplant German and Italian military missions. As the Allies neared victory in WWII, training programs formalized to sustain Inter-American military cooperation. The enunciation of the Truman Doctrine and the Soviet Union's pledge to spread communism created a bipolar superpower conflict. As Cold War flashpoints arose such as the Berlin Blockade, the Korean War, the Cuban Revolution, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Vietnam War, the school continuously reorganized to grant the United States a clear political advantage to influence rising military leaders, government leaders, and consequently its political system and the future relations with that country. This thesis will examine one element of U.S. foreign policy, formerly the United States Army School of the Americas (USARSA), now known as the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation to determine whether this institution served U.S. interests, and if so, when and how did it accomplish its mission. / Master of Arts

The United States suffered a severe financial crisis in September of 2008, the effects of which are still strongly reverberating throughout the national economy and the finances of American government. While the financial downturn greatly exacerbated the nation's immediate fiscal stress, government policies have played a large role in the longer-term economic challenges. The buildup of financial insecurity for individuals and businesses since the 1970s, brought to painfully emphatic clarity by the 2008 financial crash, has citizens of all political persuasions deeply concerned about the future of the Republic. This thesis attempts to explain the historical context which is indispensable to understanding the significance of our current fiscal challenges. In doing so, we come to the conclusion that rising entitlement spending, coupled with severe problems within the nation's tax system, have become the primary drivers of the significant fiscal stress that is building. I argue that the most immediately viable option for reversing this trend, in a way that supports economic opportunity for all, is to implement fundamental tax reform to lift the current system's burdens of complication, inefficiency, and inequity off the shoulders of American taxpayers and businesses. / Master of Public and International Affairs

The effects of site quality, dormant and growing season harvests, and four even-aged regeneration treatments on natural hardwood and planted loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) are examined three years after clear felling and whole-tree harvesting upland hardwood stands in the Virginia Piedmont. Natural hardwood regeneration was dominated by stump sprouts, with seedlings and advanced regeneration playing a secondary role. Stump sprouts and seedlings plus advanced regeneration were significantly taller with a dormant season harvest. A growing season harvest resulted in significantly better survival and growth of loblolly pine after 2 growing seasons. A trend for more loblolly pine volume index growth on the poor site class was noted. Regneration alternatives included an herbicide stump treatment at time of harvest that significantly reduced stump sprout growth, 70%, and resulted in significantly better loblolly pine survival. This stump sprout control also favored hardwood seedling and advanced regeneration. One regeneration alternative included either a triclopyr basal bark spray or hexazinone soil applied spot treatment for releasing loblolly pine at age one. Both release treatments significantly reduced natural regeneration basal area and density when used two years after the herbicide stump treatment. Loblolly pine growth was significantly increased by both pine release treatments. Herbicide treatments were most effective, in terms of lower hardwood basal area and greater loblolly pine volume index, in growing season harvest treatment plots. / Master of Science