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This thesis investigates the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, and its non-linearity and asymmetry effect in Mongolia. The recursive VAR model and non-linear econometric model are applied using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2013. We find that exchange rate pass-through is high and incomplete both in the short and in the long run in Mongolia. There is a statistically significant asymmetry effect, which states that impact of exchange rate depreciation on consumer price is higher than appreciation. However, we do not find an evidence of non-linearity in consumer price reaction to the large and small absolute changes of the exchange rate relative to its sample average and median as a threshold level. Additionally, we estimate the importance of the exchange rate shock for the consumer price variation using variance decomposition technique. In spite of this relatively high pass through, the exchange rate shocks explain a relatively small percentage of the variation in CPI inflation. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2015. / Could not copy abstract

Thesis advisor: Robert G. Murphy / This paper examines the impact of the fixed exchange rate policy and the undervaluation of the Chinese currency (Renminbi) on the U.S.-China bilateral trade balance. Due to China's fixed exchange rate policy during the last decade, many have suspected that the Renminbi has been undervalued, and that this undervaluation has contributed to the expansion of the U.S. trade deficit. Based on previous studies, the first part of this paper explores Chinese economic policy and the possible consequences of the fixed exchange rate and the undervaluation of the Renminbi. The second part of the paper examines the following through empirical analysis: (1) the misalignment of the Renminbi through the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, (2) the relationship between the real exchange rate of the Renminbi and the U.S.-China bilateral trade balance and (3) the relationship between the undervaluation and the US bilateral trade deficit with China. The results indicate that the undervaluation of the Renminbi is neither substantial nor permanent. Moreover, the devalued Renminbi does not significantly increase China's trade surplus with the United States. The U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China is not permanently adversely affected by Renminbi undervaluation. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2007. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: International Studies. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

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La thèse comporte deux parties. Dans la première partie (Chapitres 1 et 2), un examen des déterminants des interventions officielles sur le marché des changes est proposée. Dans la second partie (Chapitres 3 et 4), c'est la problématique des interventions dites « secrètes » qui est étudiée. Chapitre 1: « Talks, financial operations or both » Ce chapitre propose une nouvelle approche aux fonctions de réaction permettant d’examiner, dans un même modèle, les déterminants des différents types d’interventions (les interventions effectives et les interventions orales). Le modèle permet de mieux comprendre les choix stratégiques des autorités (opérations financières ou simple politique de communication) et d’en évaluer le degré de substituabilité ou de complémentarité. Chapitre 2 : « The institutional organization underlying interventions » La structure institutionnelle sous-jacente au processus d’intervention (interactions entre le Ministère des finances et la banque centrale) est explicitement incorporée dans le modèle proposé dans ce chapitre. Cette approche permet d’évaluer, dans quelle mesure, le Ministère des finances (l’autorité responsable de la politique de change), en intervenant sur le marché, internalise les objectifs de la banque centrale(l’agent du Ministère pour l’implémentation des ordres d’intervention). Chapitre 3 : « The secrecy puzzle » Ce chapitre propose une évaluation empirique des différents arguments théoriques expliquant le recours aux interventions secrètes. Le travail repose sur l’examen économétrique d’une fonction de stratégie, dans laquelle, des déterminants relatifs à la décision d’intervenir secrètement d’une part et, d’autre part, des déterminants relatifs à la détection des interventions par le marché sont incorporés. Chapitre 4 : « A unified approach to interventions » Un modèle unique, permettant d’expliquer les trois étapes du processus d’intervention, est proposé dans ce chapitre. Ces trois étapes sont relatives (i) au choix d’intervenir, (ii) au choix d’intervenir de façon secrète et (iii) à la perception des interventions par le marché. Grâce à l’inclusion de déterminants spécifiques pour ces différentes étapes, cette approche multidimensionnelle permet d’appréhender leurs interrelations et, donc, de mieux comprendre les différents arbitrages réalisés par les autorités lorsqu’elles décident d’intervenir.

In this paper, we use the Bai and Perron (1988, 2003) methodology to test for multiple structural breaks in the real exchange rate for 8 countries within Asia Pacific. We find extensive evidence of structural breaks in the real exchange rates. The Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) consider the estimation of multiple structural shifts in a linear model estimated by least-squares. They propose some tests for structural changes for the case with no trending regressors and a selection procedure based on a sequence of tests to estimate consistently the number of changes and break date. Also this paper apply Elliott and Müller (2003) method in order to test for stability of the estimated regression parameters with structural breaks. When comparing two test results, we find that the test conclusions is with little difference . Within those 8 countries including Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan , The processing result with Bai and Perron test with structural breaks, we find that real exchange rates of 4 countries have three structural breaks, 2 countries have two structural breaks, and other two countries has one structural break. Also we apply Elliott and Müller test , the result we got is that has a structural break of real exchange rate exist within 7 countries. Only one country has no structural break. According to the results which we applied those tests, There do exist some structural break under the impacts of some financial crisis and important events which , such as The Second Oil Chsis ( 1979), Plaza Accord (1985), Asia Financial Crisis (1997).

This paper examines the explanatory variables that can affect the real exchange rate (RER). It aims at investigating the way in which RER (real exchange rate) misalignment relates to the Thai economy in regarding the financial crisis, capital control policy imposed by the central Bank of Thailand (BOT), and import/export. The RER (real exchange rate) at the equilibrium level will be estimated using the behavioral effective exchange rate model (BEER model). RER (real exchange rate) misalignment is observed through comparing the calculated RER (real exchange rate) and the estimated RER (real exchange rate) in the long run equilibrium. Using data from year 1993Q1 to 2010Q4, it can be observed the direction in which each main economic factors affecting RER (real exchange rate). The result reveals the RER (real exchange rate) misalignment; overvaluation in the period before 1997 Asian financial crisis and before US subprime crisis in 2008. These misalignments of RER (real exchange rate) correspond to the intervention from BOT. With RER (real exchange rate) misalignment, the impact on import/export sector plays vital role towards criteria of policy selection.

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