This paper offers a re-assessment of the finance-growth nexus in a framework that allows to distinguish between short-run versus long-run effects. Our dataset contains information on 45 developed and developing countries over the period 1995-2011. We make use of the integration and cointegration properties of the data, establish a cointegrating relation and derive the long-run elasticities of per capita GDP with respect to employment, the physical capital stock, and financial development. We employ these results to specify an error correction model and assess whether the years of crisis have changed the relationship between finance and growth. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

<p>Man portable air defence systems, MANPADS, pose a big threat to civilian and military aircraft. This thesis aims to find methods that could be used in a missile approach warning system based on infrared cameras.</p><p>The two main tasks of the completed system are to classify the type of missile, and also to estimate its position and velocity from a sequence of images.</p><p>The classification is based on hidden Markov models, one-class classifiers, and multi-class classifiers.</p><p>Position and velocity estimation uses a model of the observed intensity as a function of real intensity, image coordinates, distance and missile orientation. The estimation is made by an extended Kalman filter.</p><p>We show that fast classification of missiles based on radiometric data and a hidden Markov model is possible and works well, although more data would be needed to verify the results.</p><p>Estimating the position and velocity works fairly well if the initial parameters are known. Unfortunately, some of these parameters can not be computed using the available sensor data.</p>

Man portable air defence systems, MANPADS, pose a big threat to civilian and military aircraft. This thesis aims to find methods that could be used in a missile approach warning system based on infrared cameras. The two main tasks of the completed system are to classify the type of missile, and also to estimate its position and velocity from a sequence of images. The classification is based on hidden Markov models, one-class classifiers, and multi-class classifiers. Position and velocity estimation uses a model of the observed intensity as a function of real intensity, image coordinates, distance and missile orientation. The estimation is made by an extended Kalman filter. We show that fast classification of missiles based on radiometric data and a hidden Markov model is possible and works well, although more data would be needed to verify the results. Estimating the position and velocity works fairly well if the initial parameters are known. Unfortunately, some of these parameters can not be computed using the available sensor data.

This dissertation comprises two topics. In Chapter 1, I explore the short- and long-run relation between insurance development and economic growth for 40 countries between 1981 and 2010. Applying a pooled mean group estimation, I find that life and nonlife insurance have different short- and long-run effects on the growth. On a full sample analysis, life insurance exerts a significantly positive long-run effect on the growth, while its short-run effect is not significant. Nonlife insurance, in contrast, has a significantly positive short-run growth effect but no long-run effect. On a reduced sample analysis, the observation on life insurance is qualitatively similar, but the growth effect of nonlife insurance is no longer significant both in short and long run, suggesting that specific countries drive the overall effect in the full sample. The results pass a battery of robustness tests. The analysis on individual countries reveals that the short-run effect and adjustment speed toward the long-run equilibrium varies across countries. I also analyze if the level of income and insurance development makes any difference on the growth effect of insurance. The results show that the growth effect of life insurance is significant in non-high income countries and countries with low level of life insurance development, while the effect is not significant both for life and nonlife insurance in high income countries. In Chapter 2, I employ the dynamic panel threshold model to investigate how institutional environments shape the impact of insurance development on economic growth. I conduct four hypotheses for possible intermediate effects of institutional environments on insurance-growth nexus: quasi-institution positivity, quasi-institution negativity, quasi-institution duality, and quasi-institution neutrality. I use multiple measures related to political, economic, and legal environments to evaluate the soundness of institutional environments. Empirical results show that the quasi-institution negativity hypothesis is supported for life insurance because the observation is consistent across all institution-related measures. The results in nonlife insurance are not as uniform as those in life insurance. The quasi-institution positivity, negativity, and neutrality are respectively supported in different institutional measures, and the coefficients in most cases are significant only at a marginal significance level. The overall findings suggest that a sound institutional environment does not necessarily benefit the growth effect of life insurance, but an unhealthy one does deter it and that the effect depends on specific measure in the case of nonlife insurance. In Chapter 3 I briefly introduce some directions for further research.

This study explores two issues, one is to investigate the determinants of net interest margins and bank risk-taking from 1993 to 2001 in a partial universal banking system, taking Taiwan as our example, and the other is to provide some empirical evidences of exchange ratio determination of bank mergers in Taiwan. In the first topic, the partial universal banking system here is a mix of the conventional commercial banking system (whose activity is mainly loan-deposit taking) and the universal banking system (engaging in both loan-deposit and investment activities). We employ the recently developed method of the panel data threshold regression method to estimate the determinant function of the net interest margin and bank risk-taking model. It is found that the corporate governance plays an important role in explaining the recent behavior of the banking industry. The empirical results show that the net interest margins in the commercial banking system are affected by credit risk, interest rate risk, the degree of leverage and management quality, unlike the net interest margins in the universal banking system which are more sensitive to only-credit risk and the degree of leverage. Moreover, the relationship between managerial ownership and credit risk taking behavior is inverse U-shape in the commercial banking system, consistent with the corporate control hypothesis, unlike U-shape relation in the universal banking system that supports moral-hazard hypothesis. In the second topic, we not only extend Larson and Gonedes (1969) merger exchange ratio model to taking account of market risk and more participants but also apply Marsh-Merton dividend behavior reduced form (1987) to estimate the expected post-merger price-earnings ratio. Taking the first case of the bank merger according to the Financial Institution Merger Law as our sample, we find that the L-G model indicates the interval of exchange ratios that enhance, or at least not cause any diminution in the wealth positions of all parties to a proposed bank merger. Also, the bargaining area offers some information to help merger candidates to negotiate final actual exchange ratio.

Submitted by Jos? Henrique Henrique (jose.neves@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2017-03-07T17:37:49Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) lorena_tavares_oliveira.pdf: 1039032 bytes, checksum: 99b6c1aac4a55a13ac7523067c7e14af (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Martins Cruz (rodrigo.cruz@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2017-03-30T14:58:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) lorena_tavares_oliveira.pdf: 1039032 bytes, checksum: 99b6c1aac4a55a13ac7523067c7e14af (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-30T14:58:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) lorena_tavares_oliveira.pdf: 1039032 bytes, checksum: 99b6c1aac4a55a13ac7523067c7e14af (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / Funda??o de Amparo ? Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico (CNPq) / Objetivou-se com este estudo estimar par?metros gen?ticos e fenot?picos para probabilidade de prenhez nas idades 15, 19, 23, 27, 31, 35, 39 e 43 meses (PP_15, PP_19, PP_23, PP_27, PP_31, PP_35, PP_39 e PP_43), em novilhas da ra?a Sindi, via modelo de limiar em regress?o aleat?ria utilizando os polin?mios ortogonais de Legendre de segunda, terceira e quarta ordem, considerando a homogeneidade e heterogeneidade de vari?ncia residual. Os componentes de covari?ncia foram estimados por abordagem Bayesiana, utilizando o programa THRGIBBS3F90. Foram inclu?dos os efeitos fixos de criador, fazenda do criador, ano de nascimento, esta??o de nascimento e como covari?vel (de efeito linear) foi considerado o peso da vaca na idade em que ela concebeu. Al?m desses efeitos para todas as idades estudadas, foram considerados os efeitos aleat?rios gen?ticos aditivos, de ambiente permanente e residual. O melhor modelo para a an?lise RRTM foi o LEG_4441 que obteve as seguintes estimativas de herdabilidade 0,34; 0,41; 0,45; 0,41; 0,37; 0,32; 0,32; 0,33 para PP_15, PP_19, PP_23, PP_27, PP_31, PP_35, PP_39, PP_43, respectivamente. As estimativas das correla??es gen?ticas obtidas entre PP_15 com PP_19, PP_23, PP_27, PP_31, PP_35, PP_39 e PP_43 foram 0,1; -0,39; -0,65; -0,83; -0,93; -0,81; -0,71, respectivamente. As estimativas das correla??es fenot?picas para PP_15 com PP_19, PP_23, PP_27, PP_31, PP_35, PP_39 e PP_43 foram respectivamente 0,12; -0,09; -0,17; -0,22; -0,26; -0,25; 0,40. A an?lise que utilizou modelo LEG_4441 foi a mais indicada para estimar os par?metros gen?ticos para a probabilidade de prenhez em diferentes idades em novilhas da ra?a Sindi, indicando que a prenhez precoce possui variabilidade gen?tica para ser inclu?da como caracter?stica alvo de sele??o em programas de melhoramento, com potencial para se obter ganhos gen?ticos satisfat?rios. / Disserta??o (Mestrado) ? Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Zootecnia, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, 2016. / Our aim with this study was estimating genetic and phenotypic parameters for pregnancy probability at 15, 19, 23, 27, 31, 35, 39 and 43 month old (PP_15, PP_19, PP_23, PP_27, PP_31, PP_35, PP_39 and PP_43) in Sindhi heifers, by using threshold model in a random regression framework, adopting Legendre orthogonal polynomials of second, third and fourth order, considering homogeneity and heterogeneity of residual variance. Covariance components were estimated by Bayesian approach using THRGIBBS3F90 program. The model included the fixed effects of herd, herd of the farm, year of birth, birth season and as a covariate (with linear effect) was considered the weight of the cow at the age when she calved. In addition to these effects for all ages studied, additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual random effects were considered. The best model for the analysis was the RRTM LEG_4441 which obtained the following heritability estimates: 0.34; 0.41; 0.45; 0.41; 0.37; 0.32; 0.32; 0.33 to PP_15, PP_19, PP_23, PP_27, PP_31, PP_35, PP_39 and PP_43, respectively. Genetic correlation estimates between PP_15 with PP_19, PP_23, PP_27, PP_31, PP_35, PP_39 and PP_43 were 0.1; -0.39; -0.65; -0.83; -0.93; -0.81; -0.71, respectively. Phenotypic correlation estimates for PP_15 with PP_19, PP_23, PP_27, PP_31, PP_35, PP_39 and PP_43 were respectively 0.12; -0.09; -0.17; -0.22; -0.26; -0.25; 0.40. The analysis by using LEG_4441 model was the most appropriate to estimate genetic parameters for pregnancy probability at different ages in Sindhi heifers, indicating that early pregnancy has genetic variability to be included as a goal trait selection in breeding programs, with the potential to achieve satisfactory genetic gains.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:32:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010-07-08Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:02:44Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 borba_lhf_dr_jabo.pdf: 857431 bytes, checksum: 9fca82a12c53154ccccaf9966a463570 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Características reprodutivas são importantes na produção de bovinos de corte, entretanto são pouco utilizadas em programas de melhoramento genético, pois são fortemente influenciadas por fatores ambientais. Neste estudo procurou-se verificar as relações existentes entre características de crescimento, de conformação e de reprodução como proposta para definição de critério de seleção para fertilidade na raça Canchim. As características analisadas foram: idade ao primeiro parto (IPP), idade ao primeiro parto penalizada (IPPPEN), idade ao segundo parto (ISP), idade ao segundo parto penalizada (ISPPEN), ocorrência de parição até os 38 meses de idade (PP38), e circunferência escrotal (CE420), peso (PE420) e escore de conformação frigorífica (CF420) aos 420 dias de idade. As médias (± DP) das estimativas de herdabilidade foram iguais a 0,02 ± 0,01(IPP); 0,03 ± 0,01 (IPPPEN); 0,05 ± 0,04 (ISP); 0,05 ± 0,02 (ISPPEN); 0,06 ± 0,03 (PP38); 0,25 ± 0,04 (CE420), 0,30 ± 0,02 (PE420) e 0,17 ± 0,05 (CF420). As médias (± DP) das estimativas de correlação genética com PE420 foram -0,09 ± 0,20 (IPP); 0,05 ± 0,21 (IPPPEN); 0,10 ± 0,18 (ISP); 0,13 ± 0,16 (ISPPEN); -0,09 ± 0,17 (PP38), com CE420 foram -0,67 ± 0,23 (IPP); -0,50 ± 0,25 (IPPPEN); -0,33 ± 0,18 (ISP); -0,31 ± 0,25 (ISPPEN) e 0,37 ± 0,25 (PP38), e com CF420 foram -0,16 ± 0,34 (IPP), -0,33 ± 0,36 (IPPPEN), 0,16 ± 0,36 (ISP), 0,35 ± 0,35 (ISPPEN) e 0,42 ± 0,28 (PP38). Estes resultados sugerem que as características reprodutivas das fêmeas (CR) não deverão apresentar boas respostas à seleção, que a seleção para PE420 não deverá provocar mudanças nas CR, que a seleção para maior CE420 deverá melhorar as CR e que a seleção para maior CF420 deve resultar em maior PP38 / Reproductive traits are important to beef cattle production systems, however their use in animal breeding programs is still small, because they are strongly influenced by environmental factors. Genetic parameters of reproduction, growth and conformation traits were estimated in a Canchim population to evaluate their potential to be included as selection criteria in a breeding program. The traits studied were age at first calving (IPP), age at first calving penalized (IPPPEN), age at second calving (ISP), age at second calving penalized (ISPPEN), occurrence of calving until 38 months of age (PP38), scrotal circumference (CE420), body weight (PE420) and carcass conformation score (CF420) at 420 days of age. The mean (± SD) of the heritability estimates were 0.02 ± 0.01 (IPP); 0.03 ± 0.01 (IPPPEN); 0.05 ± 0.04 (ISP); 0.05 ± 0.02 (ISPPEN); 0.06 ± 0.03 (PP38); 0.25 ± 0.04 (CE420); 0.30 ± 0.02 (PE420) and 0,17 ± 0,05 (CF420). The mean (± SD) of the genetic correlation estimates with PE420 were -0.09 ± 0.20 (IPP); 0.05 ± 0.21 (IPPPEN); 0.10 ± 0.18 (ISP); 0.13 ± 0.16 (ISPPEN) and -0.09 ± 0.17 (PP38), with CE420 were -0.67 ± 0.23 (IPP); -0.50 ± 0.25 (IPPPEN); -0.33 ± 0.18 (ISP); -0.31 ± 0.25 (ISPPEN) and 0.37 ± 0.25 (PP38), and with CF420 were -0.16 ± 0,34 (IPP), -0.33 ± 0,36 (IPPPEN), 0.16 ± 0,36 (ISP), 0.35 ± 0,35 (ISPPEN) and 0.42 ± 0,28 (PP38). These results suggest that the female reproductive traits (RT) will not show good genetic progress through selection, that selection for PE420 should not change RT, that selection to increase CE420 should change female reproductive traits favorably, and that selection to increase CF420 should increase PP38

Resumo: Características reprodutivas são importantes na produção de bovinos de corte, entretanto são pouco utilizadas em programas de melhoramento genético, pois são fortemente influenciadas por fatores ambientais. Neste estudo procurou-se verificar as relações existentes entre características de crescimento, de conformação e de reprodução como proposta para definição de critério de seleção para fertilidade na raça Canchim. As características analisadas foram: idade ao primeiro parto (IPP), idade ao primeiro parto penalizada (IPPPEN), idade ao segundo parto (ISP), idade ao segundo parto penalizada (ISPPEN), ocorrência de parição até os 38 meses de idade (PP38), e circunferência escrotal (CE420), peso (PE420) e escore de conformação frigorífica (CF420) aos 420 dias de idade. As médias (± DP) das estimativas de herdabilidade foram iguais a 0,02 ± 0,01(IPP); 0,03 ± 0,01 (IPPPEN); 0,05 ± 0,04 (ISP); 0,05 ± 0,02 (ISPPEN); 0,06 ± 0,03 (PP38); 0,25 ± 0,04 (CE420), 0,30 ± 0,02 (PE420) e 0,17 ± 0,05 (CF420). As médias (± DP) das estimativas de correlação genética com PE420 foram -0,09 ± 0,20 (IPP); 0,05 ± 0,21 (IPPPEN); 0,10 ± 0,18 (ISP); 0,13 ± 0,16 (ISPPEN); -0,09 ± 0,17 (PP38), com CE420 foram -0,67 ± 0,23 (IPP); -0,50 ± 0,25 (IPPPEN); -0,33 ± 0,18 (ISP); -0,31 ± 0,25 (ISPPEN) e 0,37 ± 0,25 (PP38), e com CF420 foram -0,16 ± 0,34 (IPP), -0,33 ± 0,36 (IPPPEN), 0,16 ± 0,36 (ISP), 0,35 ± 0,35 (ISPPEN) e 0,42 ± 0,28 (PP38). Estes resultados sugerem que as características reprodutivas das fêmeas (CR) não deverão apresentar boas respostas à seleção, que a seleção para PE420 não deverá provocar mudanças nas CR, que a seleção para maior CE420 deverá melhorar as CR e que a seleção para maior CF420 deve resultar em maior PP38 / Abstract: Reproductive traits are important to beef cattle production systems, however their use in animal breeding programs is still small, because they are strongly influenced by environmental factors. Genetic parameters of reproduction, growth and conformation traits were estimated in a Canchim population to evaluate their potential to be included as selection criteria in a breeding program. The traits studied were age at first calving (IPP), age at first calving penalized (IPPPEN), age at second calving (ISP), age at second calving penalized (ISPPEN), occurrence of calving until 38 months of age (PP38), scrotal circumference (CE420), body weight (PE420) and carcass conformation score (CF420) at 420 days of age. The mean (± SD) of the heritability estimates were 0.02 ± 0.01 (IPP); 0.03 ± 0.01 (IPPPEN); 0.05 ± 0.04 (ISP); 0.05 ± 0.02 (ISPPEN); 0.06 ± 0.03 (PP38); 0.25 ± 0.04 (CE420); 0.30 ± 0.02 (PE420) and 0,17 ± 0,05 (CF420). The mean (± SD) of the genetic correlation estimates with PE420 were -0.09 ± 0.20 (IPP); 0.05 ± 0.21 (IPPPEN); 0.10 ± 0.18 (ISP); 0.13 ± 0.16 (ISPPEN) and -0.09 ± 0.17 (PP38), with CE420 were -0.67 ± 0.23 (IPP); -0.50 ± 0.25 (IPPPEN); -0.33 ± 0.18 (ISP); -0.31 ± 0.25 (ISPPEN) and 0.37 ± 0.25 (PP38), and with CF420 were -0.16 ± 0,34 (IPP), -0.33 ± 0,36 (IPPPEN), 0.16 ± 0,36 (ISP), 0.35 ± 0,35 (ISPPEN) and 0.42 ± 0,28 (PP38). These results suggest that the female reproductive traits (RT) will not show good genetic progress through selection, that selection for PE420 should not change RT, that selection to increase CE420 should change female reproductive traits favorably, and that selection to increase CF420 should increase PP38 / Orientador: Maurício Mello de Alencar / Coorientador: Fernando Sebastián Baldi Rey / Coorientador: Luiz Otávio Campos da Silva / Banca: Arthur dos Santos Mascioli / Banca: João Cláudio do Carmo Panetto / Banca: Humberto Tonhati / Banca: Pedro Franklin Barbosa / Doutor

With online social networks such as Facebook and Twitter becoming globally popular, there is renewed interest in understanding the structural and dynamical properties of social networks. In this thesis we study several stochastic models arising in the context of the spread of influence or information in social networks. Our objective is to provide compact and accurate quantitative descriptions of the spread processes, to understand the effects of various system parameters, and to design policies for the control of such diffusions. One of the well established models for influence spread in social networks is the threshold model. An individual’s threshold indicates the minimum level of “influence” that must be exerted, by other members of the population engaged in some activity, before the individual will join the activity. We begin with the well-known Linear Threshold (LT) model introduced by Kempe et al. [1]. We analytically characterize the expected influence for a given initial set under the LT model, and provide an equivalent interpretation in terms of acyclic path probabilities in a Markov chain. We derive explicit optimal initial sets for some simple networks and also study the effectiveness of the Pagerank [2] algorithm for the problem of influence maximization. Using insights from our analytical characterization, we then propose a computationally efficient G1-sieving algorithm for influence maximization and show that it performs on par with the greedy algorithm, through experiments on a coauthorship dataset. The Markov chain characterisation gives only limited insights into the dynamics of influence spread and the effects of the various parameters. We next provide such insights in a restricted setting, namely that of a homogeneous version of the LT model but with a general threshold distribution, by taking the fluid limit of a probabilistically scaled version of the spread Markov process. We observe that the threshold distribution features in the fluid limit via its hazard function. We study the effect of various threshold distributions and show that the influence evolution can exhibit qualitatively different behaviors, depending on the threshold distribution, even in a homogeneous setting. We show that under the exponential threshold distribution, the LT model becomes equivalent to the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) epidemic model [3]. We also show how our approach is easily amenable to networks with heterogeneous community structures. Hundreds of millions of people today interact with social networks via their mobile devices. If the peer-to-peer radios on such devices are used, then influence spread and information spread can take place opportunistically when pairs of such devices come in proximity. In this context, we develop a framework for content delivery in mobile opportunistic networks with joint evolution of content popularity and availability. We model the evolution of influence and content spread using a multi-layer controlled epidemic model, and, using the monotonicity properties of the o.d.e.s, prove that a time-threshold policy for copying to relay nodes is delay-cost optimal. Information spread occurs seldom in isolation on online social networks. Several contents might spread simultaneously, competing for the common resource of user attention. Hence, we turn our attention to the study of competition between content creators for a common population, across multiple social networks, as a non-cooperative game. We characterize the best response function, and observe that it has a threshold structure. We obtain the Nash equilibria and study the effect of cost parameters on the equilibrium budget allocation by the content creators. Another key aspect to capturing competition between contents, is to understand how a single end-user receives and processes content. Most social networks’ interface involves a timeline, a reverse chronological list of contents displayed to the user, similar to an email inbox. We study competition between content creators for visibility on a social network user’s timeline. We study a non-cooperative game among content creators over timelines of fixed size, show that the equilibrium rate of operation under a symmetric setting, exhibits a non-monotonic behavior with increasing number of players. We then consider timelines of infinite size, along with a behavioral model for user’s scanning behavior, while also accounting for variability in quality (influence weight) among content creators. We obtain integral equations, that capture the evolution of average influence of competing contents on a social network user’s timeline, and study various content competition formulations involving quality and quantity.

This dissertation is organized into three independent chapters. In Chapter 1, I consider the selection of weights for averaging a set of threshold models. Existing model averaging literature primarily focuses on averaging linear models, I consider threshold regression models. The theory I developed in that chapter demonstrates that the proposed jackknife model averaging estimator achieves asymptotic optimality when the set of candidate models are all misspecified threshold models. The simulations study demonstrates that the jackknife model averaging estimator achieves the lowest mean squared error when contrasted against other model selection and model averaging methods. In Chapter 2, I propose a model averaging framework for the synthetic control method of Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie et al. (2010). The proposed estimator serves a twofold purpose. First, it reduces the bias in estimating the weights each member of the donor pool receives. Secondly, it accounts for model uncertainty for the program evaluation estimation. I study two variations of the model, one where model weights are derived by solving a cross-validation quadratic program and another where each candidate model receives equal weights. Next, I show how to apply the placebo study and the conformal inference procedure for both versions of my estimator. With a simulation study, I reveal that the superior performance of the proposed procedure. In Chapter 3, which is co-authored with my advisor Professor Youngki Shin, we provide an exact computation algorithm for the maximum rank correlation estimator using the mixed integer programming (MIP) approach. We construct a new constrained optimization problem by transforming all indicator functions into binary parameters to be estimated and show that the transformation is equivalent to the original problem. Using a modern MIP solver, we apply the proposed method to an empirical example and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed algorithm performs better than the existing alternatives. / Dissertation / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)