This paper develops and applies a practical method to estimate the benefits of improved reliability of road networks. We present a general methodology to estimate the scheduling costs due to travel time variability for car travel. In contrast to existing practical methods, we explicitly consider the effect of travel time variability on departure time choices. We focus on situations when only mean delays are known, which is typically the case when standard transport models are used. We first show how travel time variability can be predicted from mean delays. We then estimate the scheduling costs of travellers, taking into account their optimal departure time choice given the estimated travel time variability. We illustrate the methodology for air passengers traveling by car to Amsterdam Schiphol Airport. We find that on average planned improvements in network reliability only lead to a small reduction in access costs per trip in absolute terms, mainly because most air passengers drive to the airport outside peak hours, when travel time variability tends to be low. However, in relative terms the reduction in access costs due to the improvements in network reliability is substantial. In our case we find that for every 1 Euro reduction in travel time costs, there is an additional cost reduction of 0.7 Euro due to lower travel time variability, and hence lower scheduling costs. Ignoring the benefits from improved reliability may therefore lead to a severe underestimation of the total benefits of infrastructure improvements.

No description available.

No description available.

The realm of manufacturing is replete with instances of uncertainties in job processing times, machine statuses (up or down), demand fluctuations, due dates of jobs and job priorities. These uncertainties stem from the inability to gather accurate information about the various parameters (e.g., processing times, product demand) or to gain complete control over the different manufacturing processes that are involved. Hence, it becomes imperative on the part of a production manager to take into account the impact of uncertainty on the performance of the system on hand. This uncertainty, or variability, is of considerable importance in the scheduling of production tasks. A scheduling problem is primarily to allocate the jobs and determine their start times for processing on a single or multiple machines (resources) for the objective of optimizing a performance measure of interest. If the problem parameters of interest e.g., processing times, due dates, release dates are deterministic, the scheduling problem is relatively easier to solve than for the case when the information is uncertain about these parameters. From a practical point of view, the knowledge of these parameters is, most often than not, uncertain and it becomes necessary to develop a stochastic model of the scheduling system in order to analyze its performance. Investigation of the stochastic scheduling literature reveals that the preponderance of the work reported has dealt with optimizing the expected value of the performance measure. By focusing only on the expected value and ignoring the variance of the measure used, the scheduling problem becomes purely deterministic and the significant ramifications of schedule variability are essentially neglected. In many a practical cases, a scheduler would prefer to have a stable schedule with minimum variance than a schedule that has lower expected value and unknown (and possibly high) variance. Hence, it becomes apparent to define schedule efficiencies in terms of both the expectation and variance of the performance measure used. It could be easily perceived that the primary reasons for neglecting variance are the complications arising out of variance considerations and the difficulty of solving the underlying optimization problem. Moreover, research work to develop closed-form expressions or methodologies to determine the variance of the performance measures is very limited in the literature. However, conceivably, such an evaluation or analysis can only help a scheduler in making appropriate decisions in the face of uncertain environment. Additionally, these expressions and methodologies can be incorporated in various scheduling algorithms to determine efficient schedules in terms of both the expectation and variance. In our research work, we develop such analytic expressions and methodologies to determine the expectation and variance of different performance measures of a schedule. The performance measures considered are both completion time and tardiness based measures. The scheduling environments considered in our analysis involve a single machine, parallel machines, flow shops and job shops. The processing times of the jobs are modeled as independent random variables with known probability density functions. With the schedule given a priori, we develop closed-form expressions or devise methodologies to determine the expectation and variance of the performance measures of interest. We also describe in detail the approaches that we used for the various scheduling environments mentioned earlier. The developed expressions and methodologies were programmed in MATLAB R12 and illustrated with a few sample problems. It is our understanding that knowing the variance of the performance measure in addition to its expected value would aid in determining the appropriate schedule to use in practice. A scheduler would be in a better position to base his/her decisions having known the variability of the schedules and, consequently, can strike a balance between the expected value and variance. / Master of Science

No description available.

A number of parameters have been identified as characteristic of the walking pattern in patients with INPH. Most of these have been identified through qualitative surveys and manually conducted test batteries. In order to obtain quantitative, standardized and objective measures, which enable studies based on larger patient populations and comparable results, there is a need for a user-friendly system that can measure specific key parameters over time in a reliable manner in everyday clinical work. Step height, width and the variability in the gait cycle are such parameters which are interesting research areas for this group of patient. Problems with balance and gait are very common in other patient groups as well, particularly in neurological diseases such as Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis and stroke. This is the reason that the development of this gait analyzer is performed. Giving access to a simple and objective method for estimating gait and balance ability in clinical routine investigations would increase the ability to provide the right kind of treatment, confirm treatment results, and conducting larger research studies. Therefore, this equipment can contribute to the assessment of diseases which contain impaired gait. As a first test of the usability and for the validation of accuracy and repeatability of the equipment a group of healthy volunteers was used. Results from tests on healthy subjects show god repeatability between measurements, for step width at normal gait the difference was -0,2 ±0,34 cm (mean, ±SD) and step height 0,69 ±3,34 cm. The stride time variability in the healthy group where very small 0,00048 ±0,00028 s2 with a difference between test of 0,000019 ±0,00038 s2. Three pilot patients have been tested where we have clearly seen indications of increased stride time variability and reduced step height.

abstract: Nowadays ports play a critic role in the supply chains of contemporary companies and global commerce. Since the ports' operational effectiveness is critical on the development of competitive supply chains, their contribution to regional economies is essential. With the globalization of markets, the traffic of containers flowing through the different ports has increased significantly in the last decades. In order to attract additional container traffic and improve their comparative advantages over the competition, ports serving same hinterlands explore ways to improve their operations to become more attractive to shippers. This research explores the hypothesis that lowering the variability of the service time observed in the handling of containers, a port reduces the total logistics costs of their customers, increase its competiveness and that of their customers. This thesis proposes a methodology that allows the quantification of the variability existing in the services of a port derived from factors like inefficient internal operations, vessel congestion or external disruptions scenarios. It focuses on assessing the impact of this variability on the user's logistic costs. The methodology also allows a port to define competitive strategies that take into account its variability and that of competing ports. These competitive strategies are also translated into specific parameters that can be used to design and adjust internal operations. The methodology includes (1) a definition of a proper economic model to measure the logistic impact of port's variability, (2) a network analysis approach to the defined problem and (3) a systematic procedure to determine competitive service time parameters for a port. After the methodology is developed, a case study is presented where it is applied to the Port of Guaymas. This is done by finding service time parameters for this port that yield lower logistic costs than the observed in other competing ports. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Industrial Engineering 2011

A demanda por transporte é derivada, e seu resultado está relacionado à necessidade de superar barreiras físicas, envolvendo deslocamentos e, consequentemente, tempo. Como a sociedade moderna é orientada pelo relógio, tempo pode ser considerada uma variável de grande importante na dinâmica diária. Sendo assim, os sistemas de transporte têm papel fundamental para garantir que essa dinâmica seja atendida dentro do esperado. Portanto, os sistemas de transporte devem prover um serviço confiável. Ou seja, a operação dos mesmos deve ser regular, resultando em uma variabilidade mínima no tempo de viagem. Esse trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento do usuário do transporte aéreo frente à variabilidade do tempo de viagem. Para isso, modelos comportamentais foram estimados a partir de um estudo de caso realizado em Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, com os viajantes que frequentam o Aeroporto Internacional Salgado Filho. Uma comparação entre diferentes abordagens comportamentais, baseadas na teoria da utilidade esperada, também foi contemplada no estudo, com o intuito de encontrar o melhor modelo representativo do comportamento do público estudado. Os modelos estimados apresentam diferentes formas funcionais não lineares, caracterizando diferentes reações dos tomadores de decisão quando em situações de risco. / The demand for transport is derived, and the result is related to the need to overcome the physical barriers involving displacements and hence time. As modern society is driven by the clock, time can be considered a great important variable in the daily dynamics. Thus, the transport systems has a key role to ensure that this dynamic is met as expected. Therefore, transport systems should provide a reliable service. That is, the operation there of is regular, resulting in a minimal variability in travel time. This work aims to study the air transport user behavior against the variability of travel time. To do this, behavioral models were estimated from a case study conducted in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, with travelers attending the Salgado Filho International Airport. A comparison between different behavioral approaches based on expected utility theory, the study was also considered in order to find the best studied model representative of the behavior of the public. The estimated models have different nonlinear functional forms, featuring different reactions of decision-makers when at risk.

A demanda por transporte é derivada, e seu resultado está relacionado à necessidade de superar barreiras físicas, envolvendo deslocamentos e, consequentemente, tempo. Como a sociedade moderna é orientada pelo relógio, tempo pode ser considerada uma variável de grande importante na dinâmica diária. Sendo assim, os sistemas de transporte têm papel fundamental para garantir que essa dinâmica seja atendida dentro do esperado. Portanto, os sistemas de transporte devem prover um serviço confiável. Ou seja, a operação dos mesmos deve ser regular, resultando em uma variabilidade mínima no tempo de viagem. Esse trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento do usuário do transporte aéreo frente à variabilidade do tempo de viagem. Para isso, modelos comportamentais foram estimados a partir de um estudo de caso realizado em Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, com os viajantes que frequentam o Aeroporto Internacional Salgado Filho. Uma comparação entre diferentes abordagens comportamentais, baseadas na teoria da utilidade esperada, também foi contemplada no estudo, com o intuito de encontrar o melhor modelo representativo do comportamento do público estudado. Os modelos estimados apresentam diferentes formas funcionais não lineares, caracterizando diferentes reações dos tomadores de decisão quando em situações de risco. / The demand for transport is derived, and the result is related to the need to overcome the physical barriers involving displacements and hence time. As modern society is driven by the clock, time can be considered a great important variable in the daily dynamics. Thus, the transport systems has a key role to ensure that this dynamic is met as expected. Therefore, transport systems should provide a reliable service. That is, the operation there of is regular, resulting in a minimal variability in travel time. This work aims to study the air transport user behavior against the variability of travel time. To do this, behavioral models were estimated from a case study conducted in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, with travelers attending the Salgado Filho International Airport. A comparison between different behavioral approaches based on expected utility theory, the study was also considered in order to find the best studied model representative of the behavior of the public. The estimated models have different nonlinear functional forms, featuring different reactions of decision-makers when at risk.

A demanda por transporte é derivada, e seu resultado está relacionado à necessidade de superar barreiras físicas, envolvendo deslocamentos e, consequentemente, tempo. Como a sociedade moderna é orientada pelo relógio, tempo pode ser considerada uma variável de grande importante na dinâmica diária. Sendo assim, os sistemas de transporte têm papel fundamental para garantir que essa dinâmica seja atendida dentro do esperado. Portanto, os sistemas de transporte devem prover um serviço confiável. Ou seja, a operação dos mesmos deve ser regular, resultando em uma variabilidade mínima no tempo de viagem. Esse trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento do usuário do transporte aéreo frente à variabilidade do tempo de viagem. Para isso, modelos comportamentais foram estimados a partir de um estudo de caso realizado em Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, com os viajantes que frequentam o Aeroporto Internacional Salgado Filho. Uma comparação entre diferentes abordagens comportamentais, baseadas na teoria da utilidade esperada, também foi contemplada no estudo, com o intuito de encontrar o melhor modelo representativo do comportamento do público estudado. Os modelos estimados apresentam diferentes formas funcionais não lineares, caracterizando diferentes reações dos tomadores de decisão quando em situações de risco. / The demand for transport is derived, and the result is related to the need to overcome the physical barriers involving displacements and hence time. As modern society is driven by the clock, time can be considered a great important variable in the daily dynamics. Thus, the transport systems has a key role to ensure that this dynamic is met as expected. Therefore, transport systems should provide a reliable service. That is, the operation there of is regular, resulting in a minimal variability in travel time. This work aims to study the air transport user behavior against the variability of travel time. To do this, behavioral models were estimated from a case study conducted in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, with travelers attending the Salgado Filho International Airport. A comparison between different behavioral approaches based on expected utility theory, the study was also considered in order to find the best studied model representative of the behavior of the public. The estimated models have different nonlinear functional forms, featuring different reactions of decision-makers when at risk.