No description available.

abstract: This dissertation research is concerned with the study of two important traffic phenomena; merging and lane-specific traffic behavior. First, this research investigates merging traffic behavior through empirical analysis and evaluation of freeway merge ratios. Merges are important components of freeways and traffic behavior around them have a significant impact in the evolution and stability of congested traffic. At merges, drivers from conflicting traffic branches take turns to merge into a single stream at a rate referred to as the “merge ratio”. In this research, data from several freeway merges was used to evaluate existing macroscopic merge models and theoretical principles of merging behavior. Findings suggest that current merge ratio estimation methods can be insufficient to represent site-specific merge ratios, due to observed within-site variations and unaccounted effects of downstream merge geometry. To overcome these limitations, merge ratios were formulated based on their site-specific lane flow distribution (LFD), the proportion of flow in each freeway lane, for two types of merge geometries. Results demonstrate that the proposed methods are able to improve merge ratio estimates, reproduce within-site variations of merge ratio, and represent more effectively disproportionate redistribution of merging flow for merges where vehicles compete directly to merge due a downstream lane reduction. Second, this research investigates lane-specific traffic behavior through empirical analysis and statistical modeling of lane flow distribution. Lane-specific traffic behavior is also an important component in evaluating freeway performance and has a significant impact in the mechanism of queue evolution, particularly around merges, and bottleneck discharge rate. In this research, site-specific linear LFD trends of three-lane congested freeways were investigated and modeled. A large-scale data collection process was implemented to systematically characterize the effects of several traffic and geometric features of freeways in the occurrence of between-site LFD variations. Also, an innovative three-stage modeling framework was used to model LFD behavior using multiple logistic regression to describe between-site LFD variations and Dirichlet regression to model recurrent combinations of linear LFD trends. This novel approach is able to represent both between and within site variations of LFD trends better, while accounting for the unit-sum constraint and distribution assumptions inherent of proportions data. Results revealed that proximity to freeway merges, a site’s level of congestion, and the presence of HOV lanes are significant factors that influence site-specific recurrent LFD behavior. Findings from this work significantly improve the state-of-the-art knowledge on merging and lane-specific traffic behavior, which can help to improve traffic operations and reduce traffic congestion in freeways. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Civil and Environmental Engineering 2015

This research effort first characterizes the trucks traveling along US highways by analyzing data from Interstate 81. It is hypothesized that I-81 is typical of US highways and thus can provide some insight into typical truck characteristics. These truck characteristics are important for the development of an exhaustive vehicle performance procedure. Analysis was done based on data collected at the Troutville weigh station. The characterization involves an analysis of vehicle class distribution, GVW (Gross Vehicle Weight) distribution, vehicle volume distribution, Average Weight on Tractive Axle (AWTA), and typical weight-to-power ratios. The thesis then assembles a database of systematic field data that can be utilized for the validation of vehicle performance models. This database is unique because it was conducted in a controlled field environment where the vehicle is only constrained by its dynamics. Using the assembled field database, a simple constant power vehicle dynamics model for estimating maximum vehicle acceleration levels based on a vehicle's tractive effort and aerodynamic, rolling, and grade resistance forces was tested and validated. In addition, typical model input parameters for different vehicle, pavement, and tire characteristics are included in the thesis. The model was found to predict vehicle speeds at the conclusion of the travel along the section to within 5 km/h (3.1 mi/h) of field measurements, thus demonstrating the validity and applicability of the model. Finally, the research effort introduces the concept of variable power in order to enhance current state-of-the-art vehicle dynamics models and capture the build-up of power as a vehicle engages in gearshifts at low travel speeds. The proposed enhancement to the current state-of-practice vehicle dynamics model allows the model to reflect typical vehicle acceleration behavior more accurately. Subsequently, the model parameters are calibrated using field measurements along a test roadway facility. / Master of Science

Motivated by the desire to explore future traffic flows that will consist of a mixture of classical vehicles and vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems, new mathematical theories and models are developed. The basis for this theory was borrowed from the kinetic description of gas flows, where we replaced the behaviour of the molecules by typical human driving behaviour. From a methodological point of view, this 'human-kinetic' traffic flow theory provides two major improvements with respect to existing theory. Firstly, the model builds exclusively on a mathematical description of individual driver behaviour, whereas traditionally field measurements of traffic flow variables like flow rate and average speed of the flow are needed. This is of major importance for the exploration of future traffic flows with vehicles and equipment that are not yet on the market, and for which at best individual test results from driving simulator experiments or small scale field trials are available. Secondly, the model accounts for the more refined aspects of individual driver behaviour by considering the 'internal' state of the driver (active/passive, aware/unaware,...) and the variations of driving strategy that occur during driving. This is important when the ambition is to capture refined congestion patterns like the occurrence of stop-and-go waves, oscillating congestion and long jams, where the driving strategy may depend for instance on the motivation of the driver to follow closely. This new theory links together the worlds of traffic engineers and behavioural scientists. As such, it is a promising tool that increases the insight in the human behaviour as a basis of various dynamic congestion patterns, and it facilitates the design and evaluation of electronic systems in the vehicle that assist the driver to behave safer, more comfortable and more efficient in busy traffic flows. Herewith, the results of this research are relevant, both for the theoretical interest of the TRAIL research school, and for the more practically oriented work of TNO, who provided financing for this research in the joint T3 research program.

It is widely agreed that estimates of freeway segment travel times are more highly valued by motorists than other forms of traveller information. The provision of real-time estimates of travel times is becoming relatively common in many of the large urban centres in the US and overseas. Presently, most traveler information systems are operating based on estimated travel time rather than predicted travel time. However, traveler information systems are most beneficial when they are built upon predicted traffic information (e.g. predicted travel time). A number of researchers have proposed different models to predict travel time. One of these techniques is based on traffic flow theory and the concept of shockwaves. Most of the past efforts at identifying shockwaves have been focused on performing shockwave analysis based on fixed sensors such as loop detectors which are commonly used in many jurisdictions. However, latest advances in wireless communications have provided an opportunity to obtain vehicle trajectory data that potentially could be used to derive traffic conditions over a wide spatial area. This research proposes a new methodology to detect and analyze shockwaves based on vehicle trajectory data and will use this information to predict travel time for freeway sections. The main idea behind this methodology is that average speed on a section of roadway is constant unless a shockwave is created due to change in flow rate or density of traffic. In the proposed methodology first the road section is discretized into a number of smaller road segments and the average speed of each segment is calculated based on the available information obtained from probe vehicles during the current time interval. If a new shockwave is detected, the average speed of the road segment is adjusted to account for the change in the traffic conditions. In order to detect shockwaves, first, a two phase piecewise linear regression is used to find the points at which a vehicle has changed its speed. Then, the points that correspond to the intersection of shockwaves and trajectories of probe vehicles are identified using a data filtering procedure and a linear clustering algorithm is employed to group different shockwaves. Finally, a linear regression model is applied to find propagation speed and spatial and temporal extent of each shockwave. The performance of this methodology was tested using one simulated signalized intersection, trajectories obtained from video processing of a section of freeway in California, and trajectories obtained from two freeway sections in Ontario. The results of this thesis show that the proposed methodology is able to detect shockwaves and predict travel time even with a small sample of vehicles. These results show that traffic data acquisition systems which are based on anonymously tracking of vehicles are a viable substitution to the tradition traffic data collection systems especially in relatively rural areas.

It is widely agreed that estimates of freeway segment travel times are more highly valued by motorists than other forms of traveller information. The provision of real-time estimates of travel times is becoming relatively common in many of the large urban centres in the US and overseas. Presently, most traveler information systems are operating based on estimated travel time rather than predicted travel time. However, traveler information systems are most beneficial when they are built upon predicted traffic information (e.g. predicted travel time). A number of researchers have proposed different models to predict travel time. One of these techniques is based on traffic flow theory and the concept of shockwaves. Most of the past efforts at identifying shockwaves have been focused on performing shockwave analysis based on fixed sensors such as loop detectors which are commonly used in many jurisdictions. However, latest advances in wireless communications have provided an opportunity to obtain vehicle trajectory data that potentially could be used to derive traffic conditions over a wide spatial area. This research proposes a new methodology to detect and analyze shockwaves based on vehicle trajectory data and will use this information to predict travel time for freeway sections. The main idea behind this methodology is that average speed on a section of roadway is constant unless a shockwave is created due to change in flow rate or density of traffic. In the proposed methodology first the road section is discretized into a number of smaller road segments and the average speed of each segment is calculated based on the available information obtained from probe vehicles during the current time interval. If a new shockwave is detected, the average speed of the road segment is adjusted to account for the change in the traffic conditions. In order to detect shockwaves, first, a two phase piecewise linear regression is used to find the points at which a vehicle has changed its speed. Then, the points that correspond to the intersection of shockwaves and trajectories of probe vehicles are identified using a data filtering procedure and a linear clustering algorithm is employed to group different shockwaves. Finally, a linear regression model is applied to find propagation speed and spatial and temporal extent of each shockwave. The performance of this methodology was tested using one simulated signalized intersection, trajectories obtained from video processing of a section of freeway in California, and trajectories obtained from two freeway sections in Ontario. The results of this thesis show that the proposed methodology is able to detect shockwaves and predict travel time even with a small sample of vehicles. These results show that traffic data acquisition systems which are based on anonymously tracking of vehicles are a viable substitution to the tradition traffic data collection systems especially in relatively rural areas.

The driver-specific data from a naturalistic driving study provides car-following events in real-world driving situations, while additionally providing a wealth of information about the participating drivers. Reducing a naturalistic database into finite car-following events requires significant data reduction, validation, and calibration, often using manual procedures. The data collection performed herein included: the identification of commuting routes used by multiple drivers, the extraction of data along those routes, the identification of potential car-following events from the dataset, the visual validation of each car-following event, and the extraction of pertinent information from the database during each event identified. This thesis applies the developed process to generate car-following events from the 100-Car Study database, and applies the dataset to analyze four car-following models. The Gipps model was found to perform best for drivers with greater amounts of data in congested driving conditions, while the Rakha-Pasumarthy-Adjerid (RPA) model was best for drivers in uncongested conditions. The Gipps model was found to generate the lowest error value in aggregate, with the RPA model error 21 percent greater, and the Gaxis-Herman-Rothery model (GHR) and the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) errors 143 percent and 86 percent greater, respectively. Additionally, the RPA model provides the flexibility for a driver to change vehicles without the need to recalibrate parameter values for that driver, and can also capture changes in roadway surface type and condition. With the error values close between the RPA and Gipps models, the additional advantages of the RPA model make it the recommended choice for simulation. / Master of Science

Traffic oscillations, or simply stop-and-go waves, are a common phenomenon arising in congested traffic but still not well understood. This phenomenon causes broad adverse impacts to safety risk, fuel efficiency and greenhouse emission. To eliminate or reduce those impacts, understanding the cause and propagation mechanism is essential. This dissertation studied driving behavior in traffic oscillations with the objective to uncover the formation and propagation mechanism of traffic oscillations. This study establishes a behavioral car-following model, the Asymmetric Behavioral model, based on empirical trajectory data that is able to reproduce the spontaneous formation and ensuing propagation of traffic oscillations in congested traffic. By analyzing individual drivers' car-following behavior throughout oscillation cycles it is found that this behavior is consistent across drivers and can be captured by a simple model. The statistical analysis of the model's parameters reveals that driver' behavior during oscillation (i.e., reaction to oscillation) is strongly correlated with driver behavior before oscillations and it varies with the development stage of the oscillation. Simulation of the model shows that it is able to produce characteristics of traffic oscillations consistently with empirical observations. This study also unveils the generation mechanism of the traffic hysteresis phenomenon arising in traffic oscillations using the Asymmetric Behavioral model. It is found that the occurrence of traffic hysteresis is closely correlated with driver behavior when experiencing traffic oscillations. In the growth and fully-developed stage of traffic oscillations, drivers behave differently, which results in different distribution of hysteresis patterns. This research makes it possible to unveil new management and control strategies of traffic oscillations to improve traffic operation and to quantify the environmental and safety impacts of traffic oscillations. For example, it can be used to estimate the increase of greenhouse emission and decrease of fuel efficiency imposed by traffic oscillations. It can also be used to study the increase of accident rate.

Driver psychology is one of the most difficult phenomena to model in the realm of traffic flow theory because mathematics often cannot capture the human factors involved with driving a car. Over the past several decades, many models have attempted to model driver aggressiveness with varied results. The recently proposed Longitudinal Control Model (LCM) makes such an attempt, and this paper offers evidence of the LCM's usefulness in modeling road dynamics by analyzing deceleration rates that are commonly associated with various levels of aggression displayed by drivers. The paper is roughly divided into three sections, one outlining the LCM's ability to quantify forces between passive and aggressive drivers on a microscopic level, one describing the LCM's ability to measure aggressiveness of platoons of drivers, and the last explaining the meaning of the model’s derivative. The paper references some attempts to capture driver aggressiveness made by classic car-following models, and endeavors to offer some new ideas in study of driver characteristics and traffic flow theory.

The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) describes the relation of average network flow, density and speed in urban networks. It can be estimated based on empirical or simulation data, or approximated analytically. Two main analytical approximation methods to derive the MFD for arterial roads and urban networks exist at the moment. These are the method of cuts (MoC) and related approaches, as well as the stochastic approximation (SA). This paper systematically evaluates these methods including their most recent advancements for the case of an urban arterial MFD. Both approaches are evaluated based on a traffic data set for a segment of an arterial in the city of Munich, Germany. This data set includes loop detector and signal data for a typical working day. It is found that the deterministic MoC finds a more accurate upper bound for the MFD for the studied case. The estimation error of the stochastic method is about three times higher than the one of the deterministic method. However, the SA outperforms the MoC in approximating the free-flow branch of the MFD. The analysis of the discrepancies between the empirical and the analytical MFDs includes an investigation of the measurement bias and an in-depth sensitivity study of signal control and public transport operation related input parameters. This study is conducted as a Monte-Carlo-Simulation based on a Latin Hypercube sampling. Interestingly, it is found that applying the MoC for a high number of feasible green-to-cycle ratios predicts the empirical MFD well. Overall, it is concluded that the availability of signal data can improve the analytical approximation of the MFD even for a highly inhomogeneous arterial.