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The Texas state gas tax has been 20.0 cents per gallon since 1991, and the federal gas tax has been 18.4 cents per gallon since 1993. The gas tax is not only stagnant, but depreciating in value due to inflation. Thus, damage is being done to the infrastructure but the money needed to maintain and improve roadways is not being adequately generated. One proposed alternative to the gas tax is the creation of a vehicle miles traveled (VMT) fee; with equity being a crucial issue to consider. This research used 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) Texas data to consider the equity impacts surrounding four VMT fee scenarios. Data were filtered and weighted to reflect results representative of Texas vehicle-owning households in 2008. Each scenario was run both statically and dynamically under the assumption that the VMT fee would replace the state gas tax. An assessment of the relative vertical equity of each scenario was made by calculating the Gini Coefficient associated with the proportion of state gas tax or VMT fee revenue generated by each household income level quintile. Results indicate that all VMT fee scenarios are essentially as equally vertically equitable than the current state gas tax system. Scenario 4 was designed to be inherently horizontally equitable because the per mile fee associated with each roadway type (urban or rural) was assessed to all vehicles driven on these roadway types at a rate calculated to generate needed funds to address the mobility and infrastructure needs of that roadway type. Scenario 3, a scenario favoring vehicles with high fuel efficiency, was found to be the least horizontally equitable. Scenarios 2-4 were able to generate additional revenue desired to meet the infrastructure and mobility needs of Texas set forth by the 2030 Texas Transportation Needs Committee. The large fee increase necessary to achieve the desired additional revenue may not be popular or possible. However, an evaluation of the philosophy governing each scenario designed to generate additional revenue is informative when it comes to equity impacts. No one VMT fee scenario affects all household income levels and geographic locations uniformly and it was not the goal of this research to design an equitable VMT fee scenario. Rather, the effect of each scenario on 2008 Texas vehicle-owning households disaggregated by household income level and geographic location are presented and left to the discretion of elected officials to decide which VMT fee, if any, would be best for their constituents.

The first part of this thesis relies on stated and revealed preference survey results across a sample of U.S. households to first ascertain vehicle acquisition, disposal, and use patterns, and then simulate these for a synthetic population over time. Results include predictions of future U.S. household-fleet composition, use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under nine different scenarios, including variations in fuel and plug-in-electric-vehicle (PHEV) prices, new-vehicle feebate policies, and land-use-density settings. The adoption and widespread use of plug-in vehicles will depend on thoughtful marketing, competitive pricing, government incentives, reliable driving-range reports, and adequate charging infrastructure. This work highlights the impacts of various directions consumers may head with such vehicles. For example, twenty-five-year simulations at gas prices at $7 per gallon resulted in the highest market share predictions (16.30%) for PHEVs, HEVs, and Smart Cars (combined) — and the greatest GHG-emissions reductions. Predictions under the two feebate policy scenarios suggest shifts toward fuel-efficient vehicles, but with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rising slightly (by 0.96% and 1.42%), thanks to lower driving costs. The stricter of the two feebate policies – coupled with gasoline at $5 per gallon – resulted in the highest market share (16.37%) for PHEVs, HEVs, and Smart Cars, but not as much GHG emissions reduction as the $7 gas price scenario. Total VMT values under the two feebate scenarios and low-PHEV-pricing scenarios were higher than those under the trend scenario (by 0.56%, 0.96%, and 1.42%, respectively), but only the low-PHEV-pricing scenario delivered higher overall GHG emission estimates (just 0.23% more than trend) in year 2035. The high-density scenario (where job and household densities were quadrupled) resulted in the lowest total vehicle ownership levels, along with below-trend VMT and emissions rates. Finally, the scenario involving a $7,500 rebate on all PHEVs still predicted lower PHEV market share than the $7 gas price scenario (i.e., 2.85% rather than 3.78%). The second part of this thesis relies on data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) to estimate the welfare impacts of carbon taxes and household-level capping of emissions (with carbon-credit trading allowed). A translog utility framework was calibrated and then used to anticipate household expenditures across nine consumer goods categories, including vehicle usage and vehicle expenses. An input-output model was used to estimate the impact of carbon pricing on goods prices, and a vehicle choice model determined vehicle type preferences, along with each household’s effective travel costs. Behaviors were predicted under two carbon tax scenarios ($50 per ton and $100 per ton of CO2-equivalents) and four cap-and-trade scenarios (10-ton and 15-ton cap per person per year with trading allowed at $50 per ton and $100 per ton carbon price). Results suggest that low-income households respond the most under a $100-per-ton tax but increase GHG emissions under cap-and-trade scenarios, thanks to increased income via sale of their carbon credits. High-income households respond the most across all the scenarios under a 10-ton cap (per household member, per year) and trading at $100 per ton scenario. Highest overall emission reduction (47.2%) was estimated to be under $100 per ton carbon tax. High welfare loss was predicted for all households (to the order of 20% of household income) under both the policies. Results suggest that a carbon tax will be regressive (in terms of taxes paid per dollar of expenditure), but a tax-revenue redistribution can be used to offset this regressivity. In the absence of substitution opportunities (within each of the nine expenditure categories), these results represent highly conservative (worst-case) results, but they illuminate the behavioral response trends while providing a rigorous framework for future work. / text

Orientador: Reginaldo José Donatelli / Resumo: Pontos de contagem é um método atrativo para utilização em programas de monitoramento de aves por ser simples e permitir que vários locais sejam amostrados. Contudo, nos estudos realizados em regiões tropicais utilizando-se deste método, os autores utilizam a variável "tempo" de forma diferente para registrar a abundância das aves nos fragmentos florestais. Portanto, os dados obtidos por estes diferentes estudos não podem ser comparados entre si, pois o tempo gasto nos pontos e o tempo total das contagens diferem significativamente, assim como as distâncias percorridas. Desta forma, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi o de comparar quatro durações de tempos distintas (5, 10, 15 e 20 minutos) para identificar qual destas registra maior riqueza e abundância de aves em fragmentos de florestas tropicais. As amostragens foram realizadas durante 12 meses em um fragmento de floresta estacional semidecidual de 2.180 ha no interior de São Paulo. Um total de 120 minutos de amostragem foi realizado a cada mês para cada tempo distinto, o que exigiu um número diferente de pontos amostrais e uma diferente distância total percorrida na floresta. Com relação à riqueza e abundância, os testes estatísticos evidenciaram que o tempo de cinco minutos apresentou resultados que diferem significativamente dos outros tempos (10’, 15’ e 20’). Além disso, houve uma correlação positiva entre as diferentes distâncias percorridas e a abundância registrada, ou seja, quanto maior a distância percorrida, mai... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Point counts are attractive for use in avian monitoring programs because they are straightforward and allow numerous geographic sites to be sampled. However, in studies conducted with the point count method in tropical regions, authors use the variable "time" differently to record the abundance of birds in forest remnants. Therefore, the data obtained by different studies cannot be compared since the time spent at the points and the total counting time differ significantly, as do the distances traveled. The objective of the present study was to compare four distinct point count times (5, 10, 15 and 20 minutes) to identify which registers relatively greater bird richness and abundance in tropical forest fragments. Samplings were carried out for 12 months in a 2,180 ha fragment of semideciduous forest in the interior of the state of São Paulo. A total of 120 minutes of sampling was carried out each month for each counting time, which required a different number of counting points and a different total distance traveled in the forest. With respect to richness and abundance, the statistical tests showed that five minutes of counting yielded results that were significantly different from those of the other point count times. Additionally, there was a positive correlation between the different distances traveled and the recorded abundance, i.e., the greater the distance traveled, the greater the richness and abundance. One aspect of community ecology that must be considered is that... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Submitted by Raphael Whitacker Gerotti null (raphovisky@hotmail.com) on 2017-08-23T13:48:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Raphael W. - FIM 23.08.2017.pdf: 1154964 bytes, checksum: bbbd1d8b08a0c57ea8f840af0890760b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Monique Sasaki (sayumi_sasaki@hotmail.com) on 2017-08-23T17:30:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 gerotti_rw_me_bot.pdf: 1154964 bytes, checksum: bbbd1d8b08a0c57ea8f840af0890760b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-23T17:30:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 gerotti_rw_me_bot.pdf: 1154964 bytes, checksum: bbbd1d8b08a0c57ea8f840af0890760b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-26 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Pontos de contagem é um método atrativo para utilização em programas de monitoramento de aves por ser simples e permitir que vários locais sejam amostrados. Contudo, nos estudos realizados em regiões tropicais utilizando-se deste método, os autores utilizam a variável "tempo" de forma diferente para registrar a abundância das aves nos fragmentos florestais. Portanto, os dados obtidos por estes diferentes estudos não podem ser comparados entre si, pois o tempo gasto nos pontos e o tempo total das contagens diferem significativamente, assim como as distâncias percorridas. Desta forma, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi o de comparar quatro durações de tempos distintas (5, 10, 15 e 20 minutos) para identificar qual destas registra maior riqueza e abundância de aves em fragmentos de florestas tropicais. As amostragens foram realizadas durante 12 meses em um fragmento de floresta estacional semidecidual de 2.180 ha no interior de São Paulo. Um total de 120 minutos de amostragem foi realizado a cada mês para cada tempo distinto, o que exigiu um número diferente de pontos amostrais e uma diferente distância total percorrida na floresta. Com relação à riqueza e abundância, os testes estatísticos evidenciaram que o tempo de cinco minutos apresentou resultados que diferem significativamente dos outros tempos (10’, 15’ e 20’). Além disso, houve uma correlação positiva entre as diferentes distâncias percorridas e a abundância registrada, ou seja, quanto maior a distância percorrida, maior a riqueza e abundância registradas. Um aspecto da ecologia da comunidade que deve ser levado em consideração é que as espécies são distribuídas de forma heterogênea em uma floresta, pois diferentes espécies de plantas e diferentes padrões na fisionomia da floresta proporcionam diferentes tipos de micro-hábitats para aves. Quando se utiliza um maior número de pontos de amostragem, espera-se encontrar uma maior heterogeneidade da floresta, portanto, a maior riqueza registrada pela contagem de cinco minutos está associada a um maior número de pontos necessários para isolar a variável tempo. Outro fator importante é a variação encontrada nos valores do Índice Pontual de Abundância amostrados. A menor variação e consequente maior poder estatístico ocorreu na contagem mais curta (5’ minutos), indicando que o tempo é o mais eficiente para atingir os objetivos propostos. É importante ressaltar que este período de tempo exigiu quatro meses a menos para registrar o mesmo número de espécies que as outras contagens. No oitavo mês de amostragem, o tempo de cinco minutos já acumulava 119 espécies, valor maior que a riqueza total obtida com os outros tempos. Portanto, ao utilizar o método de pontos de contagem para analisar a estrutura da comunidade de aves em fragmentos florestais, o melhor resultado foi alcançado com a contagem de cinco minutos. Este tempo provou ser mais eficiente por detectar maior riqueza e abundância com menor esforço amostral, além de aumentar a chance de se registrar novas espécies devido ao maior número de pontos realizados em um maior número de micro-hábitats na floresta. / Point counts are attractive for use in avian monitoring programs because they are straightforward and allow numerous geographic sites to be sampled. However, in studies conducted with the point count method in tropical regions, authors use the variable "time" differently to record the abundance of birds in forest remnants. Therefore, the data obtained by different studies cannot be compared since the time spent at the points and the total counting time differ significantly, as do the distances traveled. The objective of the present study was to compare four distinct point count times (5, 10, 15 and 20 minutes) to identify which registers relatively greater bird richness and abundance in tropical forest fragments. Samplings were carried out for 12 months in a 2,180 ha fragment of semideciduous forest in the interior of the state of São Paulo. A total of 120 minutes of sampling was carried out each month for each counting time, which required a different number of counting points and a different total distance traveled in the forest. With respect to richness and abundance, the statistical tests showed that five minutes of counting yielded results that were significantly different from those of the other point count times. Additionally, there was a positive correlation between the different distances traveled and the recorded abundance, i.e., the greater the distance traveled, the greater the richness and abundance. One aspect of community ecology that must be considered is that species are distributed heterogeneously in a continuous forest because different plant species and different patterns in the terrain of the forest provide different microhabitats for birds. When a greater number of sampling points is used, greater forest heterogeneity is expected; therefore, the greater richness recorded by the five-minute counts is associated with a greater number of points needed to isolate the time variable. Another important factor is the variation in the sampling rates; the lowest variation, and consequently greater statistical power, occurred in the shortest count (5′), indicating that this counting time is effective for meeting the proposed objectives. Importantly, this counting time required four fewer months to record the same number of species as the other times. By the eighth month of sampling, the five-minute count had accumulated 119 species, which was higher than the total richness obtained with the other times. Therefore, when using the point method to analyze the community structure of birds in forest fragments, the best result was achieved with the five-minute count. This time proved to be more efficient because it detected greater richness and abundance with a lower sampling effort and increased the chance of registering new species due to the higher number of sampling points over a larger number of microhabitats in the forest.

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Au moyen d'un livre au succès retentissant, un psychiatre américain présente un singulier chemin dont la clé est l'évolution spirituelle de l'individu. Des chrétiens et des chrétiennes lisent avec intérêt Le Chemin le moins fréquenté. Au Québec, les magazines catholiques les plus connus en vantent les mérites. Mais quelques voix, certes isolées, osent associer ce livre au Nouvel Âge. À l'analyse, ce livre apparaît comme le témoignage d'un homme en quête de vérité et qui se réclame d'une très grande autonomie spirituelle. Si Scott Peck est du Nouvel Âge, ce n'est pas en raison de ses croyances mais plutôt à cause de l'état d'esprit qui l'habite et qui le pousse à la recomposition d'une religion personnelle. Les chrétiens et les chrétiennes qui se laissent fasciner par cet auteur du Nouvel Âge s'inscrivent dans une dynamique semblable, ce qui est révélateur d'une nouvelle façon de vivre le christianisme aujourd'hui.