Pro forma EPS reporting is a fairly new accounting disclosure; it has since been modified in 2003 by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, to include additional disclosure and filing requirements. This “Regulation G” has been around for nearly a decade and since that time a major financial crises in the United States has occurred. This study attempts to analyze trends in pro forma EPS reporting within the S & P 500 constituents during the Great Recession, and speculate as to whether earnings management was apparent. This study provides evidence that there was a significant increase in the proportion of pro forma disclosers and magnitudes of those disclosers. Results also indicate that the presence of negative earnings and intangibles have a significant effect on the magnitude of these differences and that there appears to be a level of consistency in pro forma reporting among firms. Results allude to the possibility of short term and long term earnings management strategies during the Great recession among S & P 500 constituents.

This thesis has applied the theory of real options to study forestry investment decision-making under stochastic timber prices. Suitable models have been developed for the stochastic timber prices, after addressing major issues in characterisation of the price process. First, the assumption of stochastic timber price process was based on detailed unit root tests, incorporating structural breaks in time-series analysis. The series was found to be stationary around shifting mean, justifying the assumption of mean reversion model. Due to shift in the mean, long-run mean to which the prices tended to revert could not be assumed constant. Accordingly, it was varied in discreet steps as per the breaks identified in the tests. The timber price series failed the normality test implying fat tails in the data. To account for these fat tails, ‘jumps’ were incorporated in the mean reversion model. The results showed that the option values for the jump model were higher than the mean reversion model and threshold levels for investment implied different optimal paths. Ignoring jumps could provide sub-optimal results leading to erroneous decisions. Second, the long-run mean to which prices reverted was assumed to shift continuously in a random manner. This was modeled through the incorporation of stochastic level and slope in the trend of the prices. Since the stochastic level and slope were not observable in reality, a Kalman-filter approach was used for the estimation of model parameters. The price forecasts from the model were used to estimate option values for the harvest investment decisions. Third, investment in a carbon sequestration project from managed forests was evaluated using real options, under timber price stochasticity. The option values and threshold levels for investment were estimated, under baseline and mitigation scenarios. Results indicated that carbon sequestration from managed forests might not be a viable investment alternative due to existing bottlenecks. Overall, the research stressed upon the need for market information and adaptive management, with a pro-active approach, for efficient investment decisions in forestry.

This study analyzes the trends in temperature, and their extremes, in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in the context of urban heat island. The trends in annual and seasonal temperature changes were investigated in the GTA over the past century and a half with special focus on 1970-2000. The Mann-Kendall test is used to assess the significance of the trends and the Theil-Sen slope estimator is used to identify their magnitude. Statistically significant increasing trends for mean and minimum temperatures are observed mainly at the urban and suburban stations. The sequential Mann-Kendall test is used to identify any abrupt change in the time series of temperature (31 -161 years), and the results indicate that increasing trend for annual mean temperature has started after 1920 at Toronto downtown, after the 1960s at the suburban stations, and has increased significantly during the 1980s at all stations, which is consistent with the pace of urbanization during these periods in the GTA. The observed urban heat island (UHI) in Toronto is quantified and characterized by considering three different rural stations. The UHI intensity (∆Tu-r) in Toronto is categorized as winter dominating or summer dominating depending on the choice of a rural station. The results from the trend analysis of annual and seasonal ∆Tu-r suggest that the choice of the rural station is crucial in the estimation of ∆Tu-r, and thus can overestimate or underestimate its prediction depending on the location and topographical characteristics of a rural station relative to the urban station. The trends in extreme temperature indices are also investigated and the results indicate that indices based on daily maximum temperature are more pronounced at the urban and suburban stations compared to that at the rural stations. The changes in the trends for extreme indices based on daily minimum temperature are consistent at all stations for the period of 1971-2000. With the decrease in the percentage of cold nights and the increase in the percentage of warm nights, the diurnal temperature range has decreased throughout the GTA region. The analysis of heating degree days and cooling degree days revealed that the former is associated with decreasing trends and the latter exhibited increasing trends at almost all stations in the GTA. Finally, it is evident from the results that urban heat island phenomenon exerts warmer influence on the climate in cities, and with the current pace of urbanization in the GTA, it is imperative to understand the potential impact of the emerging UHI on humans and society.

Universal suffrage is a guiding principle of democracy. However, it has a long history of being selectively denied. While many of these exclusions have dissipated in twentieth century rights revolutions’, the right to vote is still widely withheld for prisoners. This paper looks at criminal disenfranchisement, its origins, development, and contemporary manifestations. Part I will discuss the history of criminal disenfranchisement to trace its development from a tool of social exclusion to a collateral consequence of criminal conviction. Part II will look at the judicial treatment of contemporary disenfranchisement laws through a selection of representative case studies. Part III will consider how the representative cases form a trend towards criminal enfranchisement, and the implications of this trend for future constitutional challenges in jurisdictions where such laws persist. This paper argues that this trend, while tangible, is tentative and its force may be strengthened through a transnational judicial dialogue.

Universal suffrage is a guiding principle of democracy. However, it has a long history of being selectively denied. While many of these exclusions have dissipated in twentieth century rights revolutions’, the right to vote is still widely withheld for prisoners. This paper looks at criminal disenfranchisement, its origins, development, and contemporary manifestations. Part I will discuss the history of criminal disenfranchisement to trace its development from a tool of social exclusion to a collateral consequence of criminal conviction. Part II will look at the judicial treatment of contemporary disenfranchisement laws through a selection of representative case studies. Part III will consider how the representative cases form a trend towards criminal enfranchisement, and the implications of this trend for future constitutional challenges in jurisdictions where such laws persist. This paper argues that this trend, while tangible, is tentative and its force may be strengthened through a transnational judicial dialogue.

In this thesis, 41 years of bright sunshine duration (SD) data of 192 meteorological stations in Turkey were analyzed. The main objective is to determine the trends of SD data and the importance of such analyses is the high correlation between SD data and solar irradiation reaching the surface of the earth. Because of the missing value problems, only the data set for 72 stations were examined. After imputing missing values of these stations by expectation maximization algorithm, to test the homogeneity Kruskal Wallis test (K-W) and Wald-Wolfowitz runs test for randomness were applied. Only 36 of the stations passed from these homogeneity tests therefore, trend analysis was carried out for these locations. To exclude the data sets which did not pass from the tests was important to reach more accurate trend analysis of the data in hand. Results of the trend analysis showed that the change of SD over the 41 years are in agreement with the globally identified surface solar radiation dimming and brightening time periods all over the world. The dimming period is mainly between the years 1970 and about 1990 while the brightening period is from about 1990 to 2010. The yearly averages of SD data sets of 27 locations out of 36, for the years in the dimming period, were in a good agreement with the global dimming trends. However, for the brightening period the agreement was not as clear as it was in the dimming period. Nevertheless, during the brightening period, the data set of most of the locations had zero trends or noticeably reduced rates of decrease of SD. The dimming might be attributed to the increase in air pollution and this might be an indication of human induced climate change. Larger amounts of negative trends during winter months supported this conclusion. However, to reach a concrete conclusion more accurate of different climatic parameters should be analyzed. Satellites images may be helpful for further clarifications of such conclusions on climate change issues.

This thesis has applied the theory of real options to study forestry investment decision-making under stochastic timber prices. Suitable models have been developed for the stochastic timber prices, after addressing major issues in characterisation of the price process. First, the assumption of stochastic timber price process was based on detailed unit root tests, incorporating structural breaks in time-series analysis. The series was found to be stationary around shifting mean, justifying the assumption of mean reversion model. Due to shift in the mean, long-run mean to which the prices tended to revert could not be assumed constant. Accordingly, it was varied in discreet steps as per the breaks identified in the tests. The timber price series failed the normality test implying fat tails in the data. To account for these fat tails, ‘jumps’ were incorporated in the mean reversion model. The results showed that the option values for the jump model were higher than the mean reversion model and threshold levels for investment implied different optimal paths. Ignoring jumps could provide sub-optimal results leading to erroneous decisions. Second, the long-run mean to which prices reverted was assumed to shift continuously in a random manner. This was modeled through the incorporation of stochastic level and slope in the trend of the prices. Since the stochastic level and slope were not observable in reality, a Kalman-filter approach was used for the estimation of model parameters. The price forecasts from the model were used to estimate option values for the harvest investment decisions. Third, investment in a carbon sequestration project from managed forests was evaluated using real options, under timber price stochasticity. The option values and threshold levels for investment were estimated, under baseline and mitigation scenarios. Results indicated that carbon sequestration from managed forests might not be a viable investment alternative due to existing bottlenecks. Overall, the research stressed upon the need for market information and adaptive management, with a pro-active approach, for efficient investment decisions in forestry.

This study analyzes the trends in temperature, and their extremes, in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in the context of urban heat island. The trends in annual and seasonal temperature changes were investigated in the GTA over the past century and a half with special focus on 1970-2000. The Mann-Kendall test is used to assess the significance of the trends and the Theil-Sen slope estimator is used to identify their magnitude. Statistically significant increasing trends for mean and minimum temperatures are observed mainly at the urban and suburban stations. The sequential Mann-Kendall test is used to identify any abrupt change in the time series of temperature (31 -161 years), and the results indicate that increasing trend for annual mean temperature has started after 1920 at Toronto downtown, after the 1960s at the suburban stations, and has increased significantly during the 1980s at all stations, which is consistent with the pace of urbanization during these periods in the GTA. The observed urban heat island (UHI) in Toronto is quantified and characterized by considering three different rural stations. The UHI intensity (∆Tu-r) in Toronto is categorized as winter dominating or summer dominating depending on the choice of a rural station. The results from the trend analysis of annual and seasonal ∆Tu-r suggest that the choice of the rural station is crucial in the estimation of ∆Tu-r, and thus can overestimate or underestimate its prediction depending on the location and topographical characteristics of a rural station relative to the urban station. The trends in extreme temperature indices are also investigated and the results indicate that indices based on daily maximum temperature are more pronounced at the urban and suburban stations compared to that at the rural stations. The changes in the trends for extreme indices based on daily minimum temperature are consistent at all stations for the period of 1971-2000. With the decrease in the percentage of cold nights and the increase in the percentage of warm nights, the diurnal temperature range has decreased throughout the GTA region. The analysis of heating degree days and cooling degree days revealed that the former is associated with decreasing trends and the latter exhibited increasing trends at almost all stations in the GTA. Finally, it is evident from the results that urban heat island phenomenon exerts warmer influence on the climate in cities, and with the current pace of urbanization in the GTA, it is imperative to understand the potential impact of the emerging UHI on humans and society.

Periodic monitoring of contaminant levels in fish from the Yukon Territory indicated that organochlorine (OC) contaminants had rapidly declined since the early 1990s. This study examined OC concentrations, including chlordane (sigma-CHL), sigma-DDT, hexachlorocyclohexane (sigma-HCH), toxaphene (sigma-CHB), sigma-PCB and chlorinated benzenes (sigma-CBz) in sentinel fish (species of consistent annual observation and collection) from two Yukon lakes (Kusawa, Quiet), and from the aquatic food web of a focus lake (Lake Laberge) across several temporal points between 1993 and 2003. OC analysis and phytoplankton counts from dated sediment cores as well as climate data were also collected. Population, morphological (length, weight, age), biochemical (lipid content, delta-13C, delta-15N) and OC contaminant data for fish and invertebrates (zooplankton, snails, clams) were reviewed to elucidate the primary causes for these OC declines. Although some spatial differences in contaminant levels exist between the Yukon lakes, OC concentrations were declining for lake trout in all three lakes, with declines also noted for burbot from Lake Laberge. Several other fish species as well as zooplankton from Lake Laberge exhibited decreases in contaminant levels except northern pike, which registered consistently higher levels from 1993 to 2001. There was no evidence to support the hypotheses of changes in fish trophic levels or food sources with the exception of burbot, which marginally decreased, and northern pike, which climbed a half trophic level. Through OC flux analysis in dated sediments, the hypothesis that declines in abiotic deposition affected the contaminant levels in the food web was also negated. The closure of the Lake Laberge commercial fishery resulted in faster fish growth and larger fish populations, which are contributing to biomass dilution of OC concentrations, higher OC biomagnification factors for some species and likely changes in predator-prey interactions as resource competition increases. The large ratio of OC decreases in the lower vs. higher trophic levels of Lake Laberge have increased food web magnification factors (FWMF) for all six OC groups. It is also suspected that above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the lower Yukon region over the 1990s may have contributed towards an increase in lake primary production resulting in biomass dilution of contaminants in zooplankton for all three study lakes. Concurrently, shifts in the Lake Laberge zooplankton community, from climate fluctuations or increased fish predation, have gone from an abundance of Cyclops scutifer in 1993 to dominance by Diaptomus pribilofensis in 2001, although sample sites were limited. Characteristics specific to each species (e.g. body size, composition and metabolism) likely play a role in the significant OC declines measured in zooplankton. Fluctuations in population dynamics, species characteristics and OC contaminant concentrations in the Lake Laberge ecosystem may continue for several years to come. Sentinel species such as lake trout, burbot, whitefish, cisco and plankton should continue to be monitored in all three Yukon lakes for future temporal correlations with contaminants or climate change. / May 2006

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers related to energydemand and household cooking energy.Paper [I] examine the impact of price, income and non-economicfactors on gasoline demand using a structural time series model. Theresults indicated that non-economic factors did have an impact ongasoline demand and also one of the largest contributors to changes ingasoline demand in both countries, especially after the 1990s. Theresults from the time varying parameter model (TVP) indicated thatboth price and income elasticities were varying over time, but thevariations were insignificant for both Sweden and the UK. Theestimated gasoline trend also showed a similar pattern for the twocountries, increasing continuously up to 1990 and taking a downturnthereafter.Paper [II] studies whether the commonly used linear parametricmodel for estimating aggregate energy demand is the correctfunctional specification for the data generating process. Parametricand nonparametric econometric approaches to analyzing aggregateenergy demand data for 17 OECD countries are used. The resultsfrom the nonparametric correct model specification test for theparametric model rejects the linear, log-linear and translogspecifications. The nonparametric results indicate that the effect of theincome variable is nonlinear, while that of the price variable is linearbut not constant. The nonparametric estimates for the price variable isrelatively low, approximately −0.2.Paper [III] relaxed the weak separability assumption betweengasoline demand and labor supply by examining the effect of laborsupply, measured by male and female working hours on gasolinedemand. I used a flexible semiparametric model that allowed fordifferences in response to income, age and labor supply, respectively.Using Swedish household survey data, the results indicated that therelationship between gasoline demand and income, age and laborsupply were non-linear. The formal separability test rejects the null ofseparability between gasoline demand and labor supply. Furthermore,there was evidence indicating small bias in the estimates when oneignored labor supply in the model.Paper [IV] investigated the key factors influencing the choice ofcooking fuels in Ghana. Results from the study indicated thateducation, income, urban location and access to infrastructure werethe key factors influencing household’s choice of the main cookingfuels (fuelwood, charcoal and liquefied petroleum gas). The study alsofound that, in addition to household demographics and urbanization,the supply (availability) of the fuels influenced household choice forthe various fuels. Increase in household income was likely to increasethe probability of choosing modern fuel (liquefied petroleum gas andelectricity) relative to solid (crop residue and fuelwood) and transitionfuel (kerosene and charcoal).