A fundamental research question in regional economic development, is why some regions are able to diversify into new products and industries, while others continue to face challenges in diversification? This doctorate research explores the different pathways to diversification. It follows the three-stage modular structure of DBA for Cranfield School of Management. This thesis consists of a systematic literature review, a single qualitative case study on UAE, and a research synthesis of published cases on Singapore, Norway and UAE. The linking document provides a summary of the three projects and consolidates findings and contributions into a path creation model that provides new understanding on the pathways to regional diversifications. This research integrates existing theoretical foundations of evolutionary economic geography, institutional economic geography, path dependence, industry relatedness, economic complexity, and path creation into a unified conceptual path creation model. It generates propositions, builds a framework and develops a matrix for path creation that integrate context, actors, factors, mechanisms and outcomes shaping regional diversification. It finds that in the context of path dependence and existing conditions of a region, economic actors undertake strategic measures to influence the institutional capabilities to accumulate knowledge and trigger indigenous creation, anchoring, branching, and clustering diversification mechanisms to create complex varieties of related and unrelated diversification outcomes. The institutional collaboration capabilities are found to be instrumental in accumulating knowledge and determining the relatedness and complexity of diversification outcomes. This research further provides a set of integrated platform strategies to guide policy-makers on setting up the pathways to regional diversification.

In this study, the possibility that money demand of one country might be affected by macroeconomic activities of other countries is investigated. We use the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) technique, which takes into account all covariances between residuals of country-specific money demand equations. Efficiency of estimates using the SUR technique is enhanced because it uses information contained in the contemporaneous correlation of the error terms. The hypothesis of economic interdependence is tested. A proxy for foreign influence, deviation from interest rate parity (DIRP), is tested for significance in the money demand function.

Given the importance of agricultural income for rural households, erratic weather conditions pose an austere threat to these households' livelihoods. This thesis explores ways through which households in agrarian economies smooth their consumption, engage in community networks, and readjust their labour allocation in response to shocks. In a setting of inherent risk, absence of institutional insurance, and labour market inefficiencies, poor households are often left to their own devices to cope with risk. The aim of this study is to examine the different risk-coping strategies adopted by households in rural India, assess their effectiveness, and derive implications for public policy. The results suggest that, in an environment characterised by agro-climatic risk, households are able to self-insure and smooth their consumption in the face of income shocks. Their coping mechanisms, however, may reduce their resilience to future shocks. In fact, small landholders tend to rely more heavily on their productive asset stock, while medium landholders find it optimal to preserve and accumulate their productive assets when exposed to exogenous income shocks. Households also change their labour allocation and reduce their self-employment in agriculture. Furthermore, households in rural areas can migrate to urban areas or engage in societal risk-sharing arrangements to mitigate the risk. The results of this thesis suggest that being part of a community network discourages individuals' migration and increases the likelihood of undertaking riskier activities. The findings also confirm the importance of portfolio adjustments and the diversification of household assets in buffering consumption. These conclusions form the basis of several policy implications, the most important of which is providing formal insurance schemes to encourage the accumulation of assets, technology, and skills.

A fundamental research question in regional economic development, is why some regions are able to diversify into new products and industries, while others continue to face challenges in diversification? This doctorate research explores the different pathways to diversification. It follows the three-stage modular structure of DBA for Cranfield School of Management. This thesis consists of a systematic literature review, a single qualitative case study on UAE, and a research synthesis of published cases on Singapore, Norway and UAE. The linking document provides a summary of the three projects and consolidates findings and contributions into a path creation model that provides new understanding on the pathways to regional diversifications. This research integrates existing theoretical foundations of evolutionary economic geography, institutional economic geography, path dependence, industry relatedness, economic complexity, and path creation into a unified conceptual path creation model. It generates propositions, builds a framework and develops a matrix for path creation that integrate context, actors, factors, mechanisms and outcomes shaping regional diversification. It finds that in the context of path dependence and existing conditions of a region, economic actors undertake strategic measures to influence the institutional capabilities to accumulate knowledge and trigger indigenous creation, anchoring, branching, and clustering diversification mechanisms to create complex varieties of related and unrelated diversification outcomes. The institutional collaboration capabilities are found to be instrumental in accumulating knowledge and determining the relatedness and complexity of diversification outcomes. This research further provides a set of integrated platform strategies to guide policy-makers on setting up the pathways to regional diversification.

The study deals with application of related variety concept and other evolutionary economic geography approaches in the economic landscape of postsocialist states of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The goal was to define different types of variety and explore the relationship between these varieties and economic development in CEE countries between 1993 and 2009. The analysis is based on the theoretical and analytical framework presented in studies realized in the most developed countries of Western Europe. The important finding is that this kind of research allow to conclude that different types of variety influence the economic development, but some of the results are different from those in prior studies. The porfolio effect of unrelated variety was not confirmed. However, the results show strong evidence that related variety stimulates employment growth and usually contributes to GDP growth of CEE countries. The results also indicate, that high variety of related sectors could be crucial for future development of new industries (especially in Central Europe). Keywords: evolutionary economic geography, related and unrelated variety, economic development, Central and Eastern Europe

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Questa tesi include tre capitoli che si concentrano sulle politiche pubbliche e la tutela della salute. Il primo capitolo esamina l’effetto dell’incremento delle aliquote dell’IVA su alcune bevande sul loro consumo. I risultati dell’analisi empirica suggeriscono che l'aumento dell'aliquota IVA ha ridotto il consumo di alcolici, birra e bevande gassate, mentre l’effetto sul consumo di vino non è statisticamente significativo. Tuttavia, questo risultato generale cambia se si considerano sotto-gruppi di individui. Il secondo capitolo studia l’impatto del salario minimo sulla salute della popolazione cinese. Le stime indicano che i salari minimi reali sono negativamente e significativamente correlati con lo stato di salute della popolazione sia nel breve che nel lungo periodo, un risultato che potrebbe essere spiegato dalle condizioni di lavoro più stressanti conseguenti all’introduzione di un salario minimo più elevato. Infine, il terzo capitolo analizza gli effetti dei meccanismi di incentivazione sui comportamenti degli operatori sanitari del settore delle cure primarie nell’ambito della gestione dell'ipertensione. La nostra indagine empirica suggerisce che gli incentivi finanziari negativi potrebbero motivare gli operatori sanitari a migliorare la qualità dei servizi legati alla gestione dell'ipertensione, mentre né gli incentivi finanziari né diverse modalità di valutazione delle prestazioni sembrano influenzare la qualità dei servizi. / This dissertation includes three chapters which focus on the relationship between public policies and healthcare. The first chapter examines whether tax policy is effective in changing the unhealthy drinking behaviours of individuals. My findings suggest that the VAT rate increase is effective in reducing the consumption of spirits, beer and carbonated beverages, while it is not effective for wine. However, this general result change when looking at sub-groups of individuals. The second chapter studies how real minimum wages affect population health in China. I conclude that real minimum wages are negatively and significantly related to population health, a result which might be explained by the role of more stressful working conditions as a consequence of a higher minimum wage. Finally, the third chapter analyses the effects of incentive mechanisms on the behaviours of primary health workers and the subsequent effects on the quality of hypertension management. The empirical investigation suggests that negative financial incentives could motivate primary health workers and improve the quality of hypertension management. However, neither positive financial incentives nor different modes of performance evaluation are significantly related to the quality of hypertension management.

內生經濟成長認為政府支出結構與收入結構均會影響恆定狀態成長率之觀點和事實是否一致呢？許多先前相關之研究需被修正，因為這些研究在政府預算限制式的設定並不完全，導致實證之結果產生偏誤。本文除了將討論忽略這些偏誤所會導致之影響外，進一步將以One-Way與TwO-Way的固定效果與隨機效果模型來進行估計，並修正先前研究所發生之問題，然後找出強力的證據來支持Barro模型（1990）所做的預測。本文的樣本資料取自東亞經濟前瞻與亞洲開發銀行，以亞洲新、舊四小龍，加上申國，共九個國家的17年時間序列資料所形成的揉合資料（pooling data）為實證對象。分析結果發現在考慮異質性與同期相關性下，若採用似無相關迴歸技巧來對One-Way固定效果模型進行估計，則：（1）不論政府是以租稅收入或是非租稅收入作為融通財源，資本性支出的增加均會提高經濟成長率，經常性支出的增加則均會對經濟成長率造成負面影響；（2）在政府以租稅收入為融通來源下，非租稅收入增加將會降低經濟成長率；若政府以非租稅收入作為融通之財源，則此時租稅收入之增加將會降低經濟成長。 〔關鍵字〕資本支出、經常支出、同期相關性（Contemporaneous correlation）、異質性（HetereSkedaStiCity）、One-Way fixed（random）effect model、Two-way fixed（random）effect model、似無相關迴歸（Seemingly unrelated regression）

本研究以不動產估價技術規則第19條第7項與第20條之規定，引用相似無關迴歸模式、多變量迴歸模式與典型相關分析等計量模式，對金融機構所做的擔保品估價進行驗證、預測及控制分析。 擔保品估價中會產生兩價，即擔保品的評估市場價格與評估擔保值（價），大部分的人都認為兩價存在一個比率關係。傳統的迴歸分析估價模式係由一組價格影響因素影響一個不動產價格，上述情形是否可能由同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格？本研究實證結果顯示，在95％統計信賴水準下，有兩個不動產價格受同一組價格因素影響的結果。既然驗證存在同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格，是否有更具效率的計量估價模式呢？典型相關分析係透過兩組變項之相關關係建構計量模式，除可再度驗證同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格，並可如同因素分析或主成份分析的功能，對兩組變項各做變項縮減的工作，達到對變項去蕪存菁的效果。 / This thesis is based on Article 19 No 7 and Article 20 of the Real Estate Appraisal Regulation. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model, Multivariate Regression Model and Econometric Model and so on econometric model are applied. In addition, collateral valuations done by financial institutions are verified, predicted and analyzed. In collateral valuations, there are two-value references: assessed market value and assessed accommodation value. Majority believe that there is a ratio between these two values. The traditional regression analysis of the valuation model is having one set of pricing factors to have impact on the real estate price. However, is it possible that one set of pricing factors will affect two real estate prices? The findings approve that, under statistical confidence level with 95%, more than two real estate prices can be influenced by one set of pricing factors. Further more, this thesis also examines if there are other econometric valuation models to be applied? The canonical correlation analysis is to build a calculation model to analyze correlation between two variables. Other than examining one set of pricing factors can influence two real estate prices, this analysis also provides a similar function of the factor analysis or principal analysis to reduce variables caused by two sets of variable.

This thesis consists of three chapters on economic and econometric applications of Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison. The first two chapters study the incidental parameter problem mainly under a linear autoregressive (AR) panel data model with fixed effect. The first chapter investigates the problem from a model comparison perspective. The major finding in the first chapter is that consistency in parameter estimation and model selection are interrelated. The reparameterization of the fixed effect parameter proposed by Lancaster (2002) may not provide a valid solution to the incidental parameter problem if the wrong set of exogenous regressors are included. To estimate the model consistently and to measure its goodness of fit, the Bayes factor is found to be more preferable for model comparson than the Bayesian information criterion based on the biased maximum likelihood estimates. When the model uncertainty is substantial, Bayesian model averaging is recommended. The method is applied to study the relationship between financial development and economic growth. The second chapter proposes a correction function approach to solve the incidental parameter problem. It is discovered that the correction function exists for the linear AR panel model of order p when the model is stationary with strictly exogenous regressors. MCMC algorithms are developed for parameter estimation and to calculate the Bayes factor for model comparison. The last chapter studies how stock return's predictability and model uncertainty affect a rational buy-and-hold investor's decision to allocate her wealth for different lengths of investment horizons in the UK market. The FTSE All-Share Index is treated as the risky asset, and the UK Treasury bill as the riskless asset in forming the investor's portfolio. Bayesian methods are employed to identify the most powerful predictors by accounting for model uncertainty. It is found that though stock return predictability is weak, it can still affect the investor's optimal portfolio decisions over different investment horizons.