Pesquisadores apontam que a ação antrópica é responsável pelo aquecimento de aproximadamente 1°C na temperatura do planeta e que, se esse ritmo for mantido, a meta do Acordo de Paris de restringir o aquecimento global em 1,5ºC deverá ser ultrapassada por volta do ano de 2040. Os impactos deste aquecimento afetarão com maior intensidade populações social, ambiental e economicamente mais vulneráveis, trazendo especiais desafios para as cidades, que concentrarão 66% da população mundial até a metade do século. No Brasil, alguns fatores dificultam a ampliação da capacidade de adaptação dos governos locais aos efeitos das mudanças climáticas. Dentre estes fatores, destacam-se uma taxa de urbanização acima da média mundial, a desigualdade social, a maneira que as cidades foram planejadas e o baixo domínio da questão climática pelos gestores públicos. Para superar estes problemas, diversos instrumentos de planejamento poderiam ser implantados ou aprimorados, entretanto, muitos municípios necessitam de auxílio para sua tomada de decisão. Nesse sentido, o Índice de Adaptação Urbana (UAI) propõe uma sistematização de indicadores, que verifica a existência ou não de instrumentos de desenvolvimento urbano e de políticas públicas, vinculados às temáticas de habitação, mobilidade urbana, agricultura sustentável, gestão ambiental e resposta aos impactos climáticos que visam a ampliação do potencial adaptativo municipal. Este projeto discute os resultados da aplicação do UAI nos 645 municípios do Estado de São Paulo, fornecendo um diagnóstico do potencial adaptativo dos municípios paulistas. A correlação desses resultados com as características socioambientais de cada região poderá ser utilizada para subsidiar um planejamento local e regional mais adaptado aos efeitos das mudanças climáticas. / Researchers indicate that anthropic action is responsible for the warming of approximately 1°C in the planet\'s temperature and that, if this pace is maintained, the goal of the Paris Agreement to restrict global warming by 1.5°C should be exceeded by the year 2040. The impacts of this warming will affect with greater intensity social, environmental and economically more vulnerable populations, bringing special challenges to cities, which will concentrate 66% of the world\'s population by the middle of the century. In Brazil, some factors make it difficult for local governments to increase their capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change. Among these factors, there is a rate of urbanization above the world average, social inequality, the way cities have been planned, and the low level of climate issues by public administrators. In order to overcome these problems, several planning instruments could be implemented or improved, however, many municipalities need assistance for their decision-making. In this sense, the Urban Adaptation Index (UAI) proposes a systematization of indicators, which verifies the existence or not of urban development and public policy instruments, linked to the themes of housing, urban mobility, sustainable agriculture, environmental management and response to climate impacts that aim to increase the municipal adaptive potential. This project discusses the results of the application of UAI in the 645 municipalities of the State of São Paulo, providing a diagnosis on the adaptive potential of these cities. The correlation of the results with the socio-environmental characteristics of each region can be used to support local and regional planning more adapted to the effects of climate change.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Environmental Design and Planning Program / Lee R. Skabelund / Despite the growing number of urban adaptation planning initiatives to climate change hazards, there exist significant barriers related to implementation uncertainties that hinder translation of adaptation plans into actions, resulting in a widely recognized ‘planning-implementation gap’ across scales and regions. Bridging the planning-implementation gap will require overcoming implementation uncertainties by better understanding the relationships between the primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives and emerging adaptation options across spatial scales. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model published by Rounsevell, Dawson, and Harrison in 2010 provided a robust framework for identifying the primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives and the emerging adaptation options related to risk of changing climate and flooding events in the urban context. Drawing on evidence from the systematic review of 121 adaptation planning case studies across North America, this research derived qualitative and quantitative data, which was subsequently analyzed using binary logistic regression to generate objective and generalizable findings. The findings of binary logistic regression models suggest that the choice of specific adaptation options (namely enhancing adaptive capacity; management and conservation; and improving urban infrastructure, planning, and development) may be predicted based on the assessment of primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives (namely, anticipation of economic benefits; perceived threats to management and conservation of urban natural resources; support of human and social systems; and improvement of policy and regulations) in relation to the risk of changing climate and urban flooding events. This does not imply that other primary factors (namely information and knowledge; perceived funding and economic opportunities; evidence of climate change effects; and general concerns) have no or insignificant relationships with the selection of adaptation options, only that the review did not find evidence to support such claims. These study findings may offer useful guidance to the design and further development of planning and decision support tools that could be used for assessment of adaptation plans and selection of robust adaptation options that take account of uncertainties surrounding implementation of effective climate adaptation actions. Study findings can also inform evidence-based policy and investment decision making, especially in regions where urban adaptation plans are weak or absent.

Cities are defined as the ecological phenomenon of the 21st century since urban form is becoming dominant geographical context for human settlement on Earth. Due to that one of the major tasks of contemporary urban planning policy is adaptation of urban areas to the changing realms. In connection to the adaptation strategies, concept of resilience is gaining much more attention in the current planning discourse as an approach which perceives problem of climate change as the opportunity for better development. New aspect that concept of resilience brings to the planning is a view that social and ecological dimensions are interlinked. According to that, main aim of the thesis is to find an answer for the research question “What is the connection between culture and nature and its role in sustainable adaptation of urban areas to the climate change?” and through the research and analysis develop a theoretical foundation for the strategy of adaptation to the climate change which offers an opportunity for more effective urban growth based on three main pillars of sustainability: Environmental responsibility, Economic viability and Social justice as well as currently distinguished new dimension i.e. Cultural vitality.