The result of my dissertation justifies the use of fuzzy-sets theory to make a prediction of cost risk of a PPP project, when there is not enough information available to clearly describe the project, and, when the probability distributions of the variables that characterize the project are unknown. I showed that fuzzy-sets theory and linguistic variables may be effectively used in such a case. In this thesis were classified different types of uncertainty and investigated traditional methods for estimating efficiency of a investment project in conditions of uncertainty. On the basis of the analysis were offered new ways of conducting risk analysis for PPP projects with use of fuzzy sets theory. The main goal was to create an application model for risk assessment of the PPP project which, with a high degree of reliability, suggests a general assessment of situation. The goal set in my work was met. Model of risk assessment of the project proposed by me gives more stable results in comparison with the probabilistic model. For comparison were used different types of probability distribution functions and membership functions. The following conclusions and statements describe the novelty of the work on fuzzy logic and economic theory: develops a method of cash-flow (future expenditure connected with the appearance of risk) modeling of investment project in fuzzy environment, demonstrates the use of fuzzy sets theory in projects analyses and describes how to calculate and interpret this value, demonstrates example of the use of results applied to the analysis of infrastructure development project in Moscow, Russia. The possibility of using this method is not only in the analysis of infrastructure development projects, but also in realization of non-commercial projects by social institutes and government agencies.

This diploma thesis analyses and elaborates a methodical tool for evaluating the advantage of realization of construction of road infrastructure in the form of a PPP project. Furthermore this tool is subsequent applied to a particular project. The introductory part summarizes the basic theoretical knowledge regarding the project financing in the form of public-private partnerships. In the following part, a methodological tool for comparing the value for money based on different methods of realization. In the last part of the diploma thesis, this methodical tool is applied to a specific project, including a basic feasibility study.

Since the ending of the Cold War, the defence sector, particularly the areas of military logistics and defence acquisition, has been undergoing a comprehensive transformation. There are several factors that explain this transformation: changes in defence and security policies for nations and organisations; reductions in defence expenditure; participation in Peace Support Operations; Lessons Learned from these operations, especially in the area of logistics; revolutionary development in the area of Information and Communication Technology; emergence of novel Commercial Best Practises in the areas of business and business logistics; and changes in the legislation regarding the conduct of public procurement in Europe. In military logistics, the relatively easily described static supply and support chains of the Cold War Era, designed for military units that stood in preparedness, Just-in-Case, of full-scale military conflicts in Europe, are now being substituted for flexible, dynamic operational supply and support chains, designed for military units that are deployed on Peace Support Operations around the globe. Hence, new types of missions have to be provided for. As a consequence, new military concepts have to be considered; new technology is being implemented; and new Commercial Best Practises are being evaluated, adapted and adopted; in order to enhance performance and ensure Value-for-Money. In defence acquisition, the single Business Model of the Cold War Era, i.e. procurement of equipment, is being replaced by a spectrum of emerging Business Models, ranging from the traditional procurement of equipment, via acquisition of equipment and support, to acquisition of availability and capability, i.e. acquisition of performance. Consequently, new Commercial Best Practises are being evaluated, adapted and adopted; Commercial and Military-Off-The-Shelf products and services are being utilised; and Public Private Participation, Cooperation, and Partnerships are being investigated and initiated; in order to enhance performance and ensure Value-for-Money, while simultaneously mitigating operational risk in the supply and support chains. This licentiate thesis reports on a research project that was commissioned by FMV, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration, and conducted in order to "study, analyse, and evaluate Business Models regarding how they can handle the new supply concept that a new logistical interface brings about, with a particular emphasis on the risk taking that is part of the business concept". This research purpose was used to formulate three Research Questions: • Research Question 1: How can a generic Business Model for a non-profit, governmental, Defence Procurement Agency be described? • Research Question 2: Which strengths and weaknesses do different Business Models have in the context of defence acquisition? • Research Question 3: Which risks are associated with different Business Models in the context of defence acquisition? Using constructs from: Business Model theory, Public Private Participation theory, defence acquisition theory and practise, and military logistics theory and practise; a generic Public Private Business Model for defence acquisition was developed. The generic model consists of numerous variables, which enables an array of possible configurations. The model was used in a multiple case study to describe and analyse four defence acquisition projects in the UK. The multiple case study demonstrated that the generic Public Private Business Model is useful in order to describe defence acquisition projects. The model has also demonstrated that it is useful in order to analyse acquisition projects, including performance and risk. The Public Private Business Model has demonstrated its usefulness by discovering internal and external misalignments. The internal misalignments are Business Model configurations where the different building blocks are working against each other. The research has revealed examples where the mitigation of operational risk in the supply and support chains creates new risks in other building blocks. An external misalignment occurs when a Business Model configuration works against the deal for which it was designed, or the strategy that it is intended to realise. The research has revealed examples where there is a risk that the Business Model configuration is detrimental to the overarching strategy, e.g. transferring risk to the private sector or incentivising industry to enhance performance. Hence, the Public Private Business Model ought to be useful to identify and eradicate negative patterns and to identify and reinforce positive patterns. The research has revealed three potential generic problems for Performance Based Contracts: a "definition problem" (i.e. what to measure); a "measurement problem" (i.e. when, where and how to measure); and a "comparison problem" (i.e. with what to compare). The research results demonstrate that it must be made explicit which dimensions of performance; e.g. speed, quality, cost, flexibility and dependability; that should be measured, and why others should be omitted. The research suggests that performance must be explicitly specified for any Performance Based Contract in order to avoid any unnecessary problems with interpretations. Furthermore, the research indicates that performance metrics must be explicitly described. In addition, the results emphasise the importance of having an established baseline, against which to compare the measurements of Key Performance Indicators.

Submitted by Mariana Baleeiro Martins Carrera (marianacarrera@hotmail.com) on 2014-09-22T15:17:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE VERSÃO FINAL - MARIANA CARRERA 22.09.2014.pdf: 1391085 bytes, checksum: a0380a49f7b6d3c7112ffd16f2715714 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by PAMELA BELTRAN TONSA (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2014-09-22T16:03:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE VERSÃO FINAL - MARIANA CARRERA 22.09.2014.pdf: 1391085 bytes, checksum: a0380a49f7b6d3c7112ffd16f2715714 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-22T16:04:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE VERSÃO FINAL - MARIANA CARRERA 22.09.2014.pdf: 1391085 bytes, checksum: a0380a49f7b6d3c7112ffd16f2715714 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-22 / The goal of this study is to understand the merit evaluation models of PPP projects and to study existing projects in the healthcare sector in Brazil, as of June, 2014. The methodology was a qualitative research of exploratory nature, through a bibliography and document review, interviews with key stakeholders and analysis of projects. It also involved the study of national and international merit assessment models – Value for Money. Key parameters presented by VFM are: discussions of projects based on results, competition, risk transfer to the private initiative, innovation and responsibility sharing. It is composed of three basic elements: economy, efficacy and efficiency. However, achieving economy and efficiency is meaningless if the efficacy (guaranteeing that a given activity achieves its goals) is not observed. The results point out that the utilization of PPPs is, slowly, becoming more frequent in the healthcare sector in Brazil. Nevertheless, such partnerships need to mature and to improve their administration, technical, managerial and political aspects. As such, it intends to contribute for a better knowledge and understanding of PPP as a new institutional way to manage healthcare, documenting the early stages of this process and presenting the most critical dimensions for the success of its implementation in the healthcare sector in Brazil. / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo compreender a análise do mérito de projetos de PPP, com ênfase no setor saúde. A metodologia utilizada foi a pesquisa qualitativa de natureza exploratória, com levantamento bibliográfico e documental, entrevistas com os principais stakeholders e análise de projetos. Foram estudados, também, modelos nacionais e internacionais de análise de mérito – Value for Money. O VFM apresenta como principais parâmetros a discussão sobre contratos baseados em resultados, competição, transferência de risco para a iniciativa privada, inovação e divisão de responsabilidades. São três seus elementos básicos: economia, eficácia e eficiência. Porém, a obtenção de economia e eficiência não tem valor se a eficácia (garantia de que uma determinada atividade alcance os resultados desejados) não for observada. Os resultados apontam que a utilização de PPP está, progressivamente, se tornando mais freqüente no setor saúde no Brasil. No entanto, essas parcerias necessitam de amadurecimento e aperfeiçoamento administrativo, técnico, gerencial e político. Com isso, pretende-se contribuir para o maior conhecimento e entendimento da PPP como uma nova modalidade institucional para a gestão da saúde, documentando um momento ainda inicial desse processo e apresentando as dimensões mais críticas para o sucesso da sua implantação no setor saúde no Brasil.

This thesis is about the problems of PPP projects. These are the projects, whose realization is based on the partnership of the private and public sector. This way brings new possibilities how is building and management of public infrastructure more effective. In theoretical part the basic information concerning the problems of PPP projects is described, its advantages and disadvantages, basic characters and principles. In this thesis is described actual state of PPP projects in the Czech Republic. In practical part the thesis is about specific concession project, whose realization is considered. It is the project of construction and operation of cableway to Spilberk Castle. Within this part at first the entrance data for financial models have been found, after that the financial models have been count and the analysis of sensitivity has been finished. In conclusion the evaluation of project has been done and there was the recommendation how to realize the project.