<p>Study I<i>Real Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry</i></p><p>This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate.</p><p>Study II<i>Intersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden</i></p><p>The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. </p><p>Study III<i>Wage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden</i></p><p>The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. </p><p>The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.</p>

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

This study aims to identify the effects of oil income on economic growth in Iran over the period 1955-2014. The empirical literature indicates that countries with natural resources are growing more slowly than their counterparts. However, the results from this literature are far from conclusive, particularly in regard to the role played by oil-rich countries. Needless to say, this role depends on other factors as well, including the political situation in the country, the quality of institutions, and the efficacy of the financial system. Some empirical research has found that natural resources, particularly oil, can have a positive impact on the output of a country. although natural resources are not a factor of production in growth theories, studies have used different growth frameworks in order to discover whether having natural resources is a blessing or a curse. In line with recent studies, this work uses an augmented neoclassical growth model to develop a theoretical framework where oil enters the long-term output of the country through saving and investment. Overall, the results suggests that oil income has a positive impact on the level of output per capita in Iran. The findings of the econometric results are in line with the historical analysis of the study. Since different methods and proxies were used, a total of eight models were estimated. Interestingly, when PRIVY is used as an index of financial development, the result of the study changes and oil no longer has a significant impact on the economy. However, this can be translated to an inefficient allocation of credit to the private sector.

Duas ou mais séries não estacionárias são cointegradas se existir uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre elas. Nas últimas décadas, o interesse na literatura sobre o tema cointegração aumentou de maneira expressiva. Os modelos tradicionais supõem que o vetor de cointegração não varia ao longo do tempo. Entretanto, existem evidências na literatura de que esta suposição pode ser considerada muito restritiva. Utilizando o conceito de ondaletas, propomos um modelo de correção de erros vetorial em que é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar ao longo do tempo. Diferente de trabalhos similares, é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar suave ou abruptamente, dependendo da família de ondaletas considerada. Experimentos de Monte Carlo foram utilizados para estudar os quantis e o poder do teste de razão de verossimilhanças entre as hipóteses de cointegração usual e a de cointegração variando com o tempo. Os experimentos sugerem que o teste possui poder contra alternativas que variam ao longo do tempo. Foi demonstrada a capacidade do modelo em lidar satisfatoriamente com séries cointegradas simuladas, que apresentavam mudança de regime para o vetor de cointegração. O modelo foi empregado ainda para testar a validade da hipótese de paridade de poder de compra entre Estados Unidos e doze países da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD): Canadá, Japão e mais dez países europeus. Assim como em trabalhos similares, foram verificadas evidências de cointegração variando com o tempo entre os países. Foram utilizados valores-p bootstrap para verificar a significância da estatística do teste. / Two or more non-stationary time series are cointegrated if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. In recent decades, interest in the literature on the subject of cointegration increased expressively. Traditional models that address this issue assume that the cointegration vector does not vary over time. However, there is evidence in the literature that this assumption can be considered very restrictive. Using the concept of wavelets, we propose a vector error correction model in which is allowed to the cointegration vector vary over time. Unlike similar works, the cointegration vector is allowed to vary smoothly or abruptly, depending on the considered family of wavelets. Monte Carlo experiments were used to study the quantiles and the power of the likelihood ratio test of the hypotheses of usual cointegration versus the time-varying cointegration. The experiments suggest that the test has power against alternatives that vary over time. It was demonstrated the ability of the model to deal satisfactorily with simulated cointegrated series, which presented regime change for the cointegration vector. The model was also used to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis between United States and twelve countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Canada, Japan and ten other European countries. As in similar works, evidence of time-varying cointegration was verified among countries. Bootstrap p-values were used to verify the significance of the likelihood ratio of the test.

Duas ou mais séries não estacionárias são cointegradas se existir uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre elas. Nas últimas décadas, o interesse na literatura sobre o tema cointegração aumentou de maneira expressiva. Os modelos tradicionais supõem que o vetor de cointegração não varia ao longo do tempo. Entretanto, existem evidências na literatura de que esta suposição pode ser considerada muito restritiva. Utilizando o conceito de ondaletas, propomos um modelo de correção de erros vetorial em que é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar ao longo do tempo. Diferente de trabalhos similares, é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar suave ou abruptamente, dependendo da família de ondaletas considerada. Experimentos de Monte Carlo foram utilizados para estudar os quantis e o poder do teste de razão de verossimilhanças entre as hipóteses de cointegração usual e a de cointegração variando com o tempo. Os experimentos sugerem que o teste possui poder contra alternativas que variam ao longo do tempo. Foi demonstrada a capacidade do modelo em lidar satisfatoriamente com séries cointegradas simuladas, que apresentavam mudança de regime para o vetor de cointegração. O modelo foi empregado ainda para testar a validade da hipótese de paridade de poder de compra entre Estados Unidos e doze países da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD): Canadá, Japão e mais dez países europeus. Assim como em trabalhos similares, foram verificadas evidências de cointegração variando com o tempo entre os países. Foram utilizados valores-p bootstrap para verificar a significância da estatística do teste. / Two or more non-stationary time series are cointegrated if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. In recent decades, interest in the literature on the subject of cointegration increased expressively. Traditional models that address this issue assume that the cointegration vector does not vary over time. However, there is evidence in the literature that this assumption can be considered very restrictive. Using the concept of wavelets, we propose a vector error correction model in which is allowed to the cointegration vector vary over time. Unlike similar works, the cointegration vector is allowed to vary smoothly or abruptly, depending on the considered family of wavelets. Monte Carlo experiments were used to study the quantiles and the power of the likelihood ratio test of the hypotheses of usual cointegration versus the time-varying cointegration. The experiments suggest that the test has power against alternatives that vary over time. It was demonstrated the ability of the model to deal satisfactorily with simulated cointegrated series, which presented regime change for the cointegration vector. The model was also used to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis between United States and twelve countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Canada, Japan and ten other European countries. As in similar works, evidence of time-varying cointegration was verified among countries. Bootstrap p-values were used to verify the significance of the likelihood ratio of the test.

Abstracts in English, Xhosa and Southern Sotho / This study critically explores the link between internationalisation theories and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) – a linkage which is well documented in the literature. Numerous studies have established that the internationalisation process recognises both firm- and market-specific aspects, which greatly determine the direction of outward FDI in terms of volume and pattern. In this interaction, path dependency is determined by the intensity of overlapping aspects or linkages, from firm-level heterogeneity and host market aspects that direct investment patterns in terms of the latter, to the volumes of firm-level adjustments. Firm-level heterogeneity comprises those traits, which enable an individual firm to make an investment decision, select a market-entry strategy and create the competitive advantages that will sustain its investments. Macro-level or country-specific aspects encompass those traits or characteristics of host markets, which encourage FDI on the part of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Most studies overlook the path dependency of country- and firm-specific aspects, which are crucial to the internationalisation processes of international business, economics and trade. Academic studies either focus on macro- or micro-level aspects, without paying specific attention to the path dependency of expansion strategies. The present study attempts to fill these gaps in the existing body of knowledge, by investigating international business in these contexts. The rationale for undertaking this study was two-fold: first, FDI holds proven benefits for host markets, which include economic growth, industry spillover, human capital development and transitory tacit knowledge. From a firm-level perspective, outward FDI largely enhances the capacity of MNEs, prompting an increase in asset accumulation, market share and human capital development, the more efficient utilisation of resources and return on equity. In this study, an argument is presented for measuring the variables of both firm- and market-specific aspects, since most existing studies in this genre focus either on micro- or macro-level determinants, or totally overlook the importance of linkages. Second, no documented research has investigated the path dependency of expansion strategies, especially in Africa. Crucially, the importance of path dependency of South Africa’s outward investment has not been documented either. Further, existing evidence on the role the path dependency of expansion strategies plays in outward FDI are scarce, with even fewer studies following a sectorial approach. This study attempts to fill these academic research gaps by reflecting both firm- and market-level data from various sources for the period 1995–2015, using panel dynamic regression models. The study found that the linkages between firm heterogeneity (firm-level evidence) and market-level aspects create a path dependency of expansion strategies. MNEs adopt either joint ventures or wholly owned subsidiaries (or both) as market-entry strategies, but the decision is informed by the intensity of those firm heterogeneity aspects that allow them to exploit opportunities and mitigate risk in host markets. Notably, the intensity of path dependency seemingly varies from one industrial segment to the next. The impulse response approach delivered evidence that one standard deviation shock of firm-specific variables led to a moderate improvement in firm-level capacities in the short run, but a significant improvement in the long run. The same result was recorded for market-level aspects, with the intensity of the results varying from one industry to the next. The causality test attempted to explore the causal relationship between the study variables in both firm- and market-level aspects. Empirical evidence from the study indicates that the size of the firm and its capacity to utilise its resources efficiently, influence their investment in host markets. As regards market-specific aspects, the size of the economy, levels of industry and trade openness were found to have a causal effect on the inflow of FDI in host markets. The intensity of causal aspects was also found to vary from one industry to the next, due to variations in firm-level heterogeneity and their linkage in terms of aspects related to the host market. In sum, this study complements existing material on the subject of international business. / Olu phononongo luphicotha ikhonkco phakathi kweengcingane zamazwe ngamazwe kunye notyalo-mali ngokuthe ngqo oluphuma ngaphandle kumazwe asemzini (i-FDI) –indibaniselo ebhalwe kakuhle kwimiqulu yoncwadi. Izifundo ezininzi ezenziweyo ziye zaqinisekisa ukuba inkqubo yamazwe ngamazwe iyazamkela zombini inkampani- kunye nemiba ekhethekileyo yemarike, ezihlola kakhulukazi imikhombandlela (izikhokelo) ye-FDI yangaphandle ngokomthamo kunye nephatheni. Kule ntsebenziswano, indlela yokuxhomekeka ifunyanwa ngobungakanani bezinto ezisebenzelelanayo/ezingenanayo okanye izenzo zokuhlangana, ukusuka kwiintlobo-ntlobo zamanqanaba enkampani kunye neemfuno zabasingathe imicimbi yeendawo zokuthengisa (iimarike) iimpahla ezilawula iiphatheni zotyalo-imali ngokweyokugqibela, kwimilinganiselo yokulungelelaniswa kwenqanaba lwenkampani. Iintlobo-ntlobo zamanqanaba enkampani ziquka ezo mpawu, ezenza inkampani nganye yenze isigqibo sotyalo-mali, ikhethe isicwangciso sokungeniswa kwimarike kwaye siyile amathuba amahle okhuphiswano aya kugcina utyalo-mali. Inqanaba eliphezulu okanye iinkalo ezithile zelizwe zibandakanya ezo zimo okanye iimpawu zeemarike ezamkelekileyo, ezikhuthaza i-FDI kwiinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe (i-MNEs). Uninzi lwezifundo aziyiniki ngqalelo indlela yokuxhomekeka yelizwe kwimicimbi ekhethekileyo nebalulekileyo yenkampani kwiinkqubo zangokwamazwe oshishino lwamazwe ngamazwe, uqoqosho norhwebo. Uphando lwemfundo ephakamileyo lugxininisa kwiinkcukacha ezikwinqanaba eliphezulu okanye eliphantsi ngokunganiki ngqalelo kwindlela yokuxhomekeka yeendlela zokwandisa. Uphononongo lwangoku luzama ukuvala izikhewu/izikroba kulwazi olukhoyo., ngokuphanda ishishini lwamazwe ngamazwe kule meko. Ingqiqo ekwenzeni olu phando yahlulwe kubini: okokuqala, i-FDI inenzuzo eqinisekisiweyo kwabasingethe iimarike, ezibandakanya ukukhula koqoqosho, ukuchuma kwamashishini, ukuphuhliswa kwezakhono zabantu kunye nolwazi oludlulileyo lwezakhono. Ngakwicala lenqanaba lenkampani, i-FDI yangaphandle iphakamisa amandla e-MNE, ikhawulezisa ukunyusa uqokelelo lwempahla, isabelo semarike kunye nophuhliso lwabantu, ukusetyenziswa ngokufanelekileyo kwezixhobo kunye nokubuyela kubulungisa bokulingana. Kolu phononongo, impikiswano inikezelwe ukulinganisa iinguqu zombini yenkampani- kunye nemimiselo ethile yemarike, njengoko olunye uphando oluninzi olwenziweyo kolu hlobo lugxininisa koonobangela abakwizinga elisezantsi okanye eliphezulu, okanye kunganikwa ngqalelo tu kukubaluleka kwezenzo zokudibana / zokunxibelelana. Okwesibini, akukho phando lubhaliweyo oluphande indlela yokuxhomekeka kweendlela zokwandisa, ngakumbi e-Afrika. Ngokusesikweni, ukubaluleka kwendlela yokuxhomekeka yotyalo-mali lwangaphandle eMzantsi Afrika alukaze nalo lubhalwe phantsi. Ukongezelela, ubungqina obukhoyo kwindima yendlela yokuxhomekeka yeendlela zokwandisa kwi-FDI yangaphandle zinqabile, kwakunye nezifundo ezimbalwa ezilandela indlela yamacandelo. Olu phononongo luzama ukuzalisa izikroba zophando zemfundo ephakamileyo ngokuzibonakalisa zombini inkampani- kunye nedatha yamanqanaba emarike avela kwimithombo eyahlukeneyo yexesha lowe-1995-2015, usebenzisa iimodeli zepaneli ezinamandla zokubuy’umva. Uphononongo lufumanise ukuba ukudibana phakathi kweentlobo-ntlobo zenkampani (ubungqina bezinga lenkampani) kunye nemilinganiselo yezinga lemarike zidala indlela yoxhomekeko yeendlela zokukhula. Ii-MNE zamkela intsebenziswano ngokuhlangeneyo okanye bazibambele ngokwabo ngokupheleleyo (okanye zombini) njengeendlela zokungena kwimarike, kodwa isigqibo siphenjelelwa bubungakanani beentlobo-ntlobo zemicimbi yenkampani evumela ukuba baxhaphaze amathuba kwaye banciphise umngcipheko kwiimarike zenkampani. Ngokuphawulekayo, ubukhulu bokuxhomekeka wendlela yokuxhomekeka kukhangeleka kusahluka ukusuka kwicandelo elinye lozoshishino ukuya kwelinye elilandelayo. Indlela yokuphendula ngokungxama inikezele ubungqina bokuba ukuphazamiseka okusesikweni kwizinto eziguquguqukayo zenkampani ezikhethekileyo zikhokelele ekuphuculeni okusezingeni eliphakathi kwinqanaba kubungakanani benqanaba lenkampani ngexeshana, kodwa ukuphuculwa okubonakalayo nokubalulekileyo ekuhambeni kwexesha. Isiphumo esifanayo sabhalwa phantsi kwiinkalo zemarike, nobukhulu beziphumo zohluka ukusuka kwelinye ishishini ukuya kwelinye. Uvavanyo lwamaxesha athile luzame ukuphonononga ubudlelwane bamaxesha athile phakathi kwezifundo zezinto eziguquguqukayo kwiinkalo zombini inkampani –kunye nenqanaba lemarike/ neemeko zemarike. Ubungqina bamava obuvela kuphando lubonisa ukuba ubungakanani benkampani kunye namandla okusebenzisa uvimba wezixhobo ngokufanelekileyo, ziphembelela utyalo-mali kwiimarike zenkampani. Ngokubhekiselele kwimimandla ethile yemarike, ubungakanani boqoqosho, amazinga oshishino kunye nokuvuleka kwezorhwebo kufunyaniswe ukuba kunefuthe elenzekayo ngamaxesha athile ekungeneni kwe-FDI kubasingathi beemarike. Ubungakanani bemicimbi eyenzeka ngamaxesha athile yafunyanwa kwakhona ukuba yohlukile ukusuka kwelinye ishishini ukuya kwelinye, ngenxa yeenguqu kwiintlobo-ntlobo zeamanqanaba enkampani kunye nokudibana kwabo ngokwemiba enxulumene nabasingethe imarike. Kafutshane esi sifundo, sigcwalisa izixhobo ezikhoyo kwisihloko sezoshishino lamazwe ngamazwe. / Dinyakišišo tše di utolla ka tsinkelo kgokagano gareng ga diteori tša peyomaemong a boditšhabatšhaba le peeletšothwii ye e tšwago dinageng tša ka ntle (FDI) – e lego kgokagano yeo go ngwadilwego ka yona kudu ka dingwalweng. Dinyakišišo tše mmalwa di utollotše gore tshepedišo ya go bea maemong a boditšhabatšhaba e lemoga bobedi dilo tša difeme le tše di amanago le difeme, tšeo di laolago kudu fao FDI ya dinaga tša ka ntle e lebilego gona mabapi le bontši le mokgwa. Ka tirišanong ye, go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo go laolwa ke bontši bja dilo tšeo di dirwago ka nako e tee goba dikamano, go tloga go go farologanya ditšweletšwa ka femeng le dilo tša mmaraka wa ka nageng tšeo di laolago mekgwa ya dipeeletšo mabapi le go ya ka mmaraka wa ka nageng, go ya go mehuta ye mentši ya dipeakanyo tša ka femeng. Go farologanya ditšweletšwa ka femeng go bopilwe ke diphetogo tše, tšeo di kgontšhago feme ye itšego go tšea sephetho sa mabapi le peeletšo, go kgetha maano a go tsena ka mmarakeng le go hlama menyetla ye mekaone yeo e tlago tšwetša pele peeletšo ya yona. Dikokwane tša ekonomi ye kgolo goba tša ka nageng di akaretša diphetogo tšeo goba dipharologantšhi tša mebaraka ya ka nageng, tšeo di hlohleletšago FDI ka karolong ya dikgwebo tša dinaga tša ka ntle (di-MNE). Dinyakišišo tše ntši di hlokomologile go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo ga naga le ga dilo tša ka femeng ye itšego, tšeo di lego bohlokwa go tshepedišo ya peyomaemong a boditšhabatšhaba ya dikgwebo tša boditšhabatšhaba, diekonomi le kgwebišano. Dinyakišišo tša dirutegi di ka be di lebeletše kudu dilo tša ekonomi ye kgolo goba tša ye nnyane, ka ntle le go lebiša šedi ye kgolo go go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo a boditšhabatšhaba ga maano a katološo. Dinyakišišo tše di leka go tlatša dikgoba tše ka tsebo ye e lego gona, ka go nyakišiša dikgwebo tša boditšhabatšhaba ka maemong a. Maikemišetšo a go dira dinyakišišo tše e bile a mabedi: sa mathomo, FDI e na le dikholego tšeo di tiišeditšwego go mebaraka ya ka dinageng, tšeo di akaretšago kgolo ya ekonomi, khuetšano ya diintasteri, tlhabollo ya bokgoni bja bašomi le phetišetšo ya tsebo ye e lego nyanyeng. Go ya ka maemong a difeme, FDI ye e tšwago dinageng tša ka ntle e godiša bokgoni bja di- MNE, ya hlohleletša koketšego ya khwetšo ya dithoto, ya kabelano ya mmaraka le ya tlhabollo ya bokgoni bja bašomi, tšhomišo ye kaone kudu ya methopo le go hwetša poelo go dikabelano. Ka mo dinyakišišong tše, go hlagišwa ntlha ya go ela diphapano tša bobedi dilo tša ka femeng le tša ka mmarakeng, ka ge bontši bja dinyakišišo tše di lego gona ka mo lekaleng le la dinyakišišo di lebeletše kudu tšeo di laolago ekonomi ye nnyane goba ye kgolo goba tšeo di hlokomologago ka botlalo bohlokwa bja dikgokagano. Sa bobedi, ga go dinyakišišo tšeo di ngwadilwego tšeo di nyakišišitšego go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo ga maano a katološo, kudukudu ka Afrika. Se bohlokwa ke gore, bohlokwa bja go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo ga peeletšo ya Afrika Borwa ya dinaga tša ka ntle ga se gwa ngwalwa le ge go le bjale. Godimo ga fao, bohlatse bjo bo lego gona ka ga mošomo wa go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo fao go ralokago ka ga maano a katološo ka go FDI ya dinaga tša ka ntle e se bjo bontši, gomme go na le dinyakišišo tše mmalwa go latela mokgwa wo o lebeletšego makala. Dinyakišišo tše di leka go tlatša dikgoba tše tša dinyakišišo tša dirutegi ka go laetša tshedimošo ya bobedi ka maemong a difeme le ka mebarakeng go tšwa methopong ya mehutahuta go tloga ka mengwaga ya 1995–2015, ka go šomiša mekgwa ya kakanyo ya dikamano ye e fetogago. Dinyakišišo di hweditše gore dikamano gareng ga go farologanya ditšweletšwa (bohlatse bja ka maemong a difeme) le dilo tša maemo a ka mmarakeng di hlola go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo ga maano a katološo. Di-MNE di šomiša masolo a mohlakanelwa goba dikhamphani tša ka fasana tšeo di laolwago ka botlalo (goba ka bobedi) bjalo ka maano a go tsena ka mmarakeng, eupša sephetho se laolwa ke bontši bja dilo tšeo tša go farologanya ditšweletšwa tšeo di di dumelelago go nyaka dibaka le go fokotša kotsi ka mebarakeng ya ka nageng. Seo se lemogilwego ke gore, bontši bja go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo go bonala go fapane go ya ka karolo ya intasteri go ya go ye nngwe. Mokgwa wa go arabela kgoketšo wo o hlagišitšwego ka bohlatseng bja gore phapogo ya tlwaelo ya diphapano tša ka femeng e feleleditše ka kaonafalo ya magareng ya bokgoni bja difeme lebakeng le lekopana, eupša ka kaonafalo ye kgolo mo lebakeng le letelele. Dipoelo tše di swanago di begilwe ka go dilo tša maemo a ka mmarakeng, gomme bontši bja dipoelo tša fapana go ya ka diintasteri. Teko ya mathata yeo e bego e leka go utolla kamano ya tšeo di bakago se gareng ga phapano ya dinyakišišo ka go bobedi ka dilo tša ka femeng le tša ka mmarakeng. Bohlatse bja maitemogelo go tšwa ka mo dinyakišišong bo laetša gore bogolo bja feme le bokgoni bja yona bja go šomiša methopo ya yona gabotse ntle le mathata, di huetša peeletšo ya yona ka mebarakeng ya ka nageng. Mabapi le dilo tša ka mmarakeng, bogolo bja ekonomi, maemo a intasteri le go hloka sephiri ka kgwebišanong di bonwe di na le seabe sa go baka seemo go tseneng ga FDI ka mebarakeng ya ka nageng. Bontši bja dilo tše di bakago maemo go hweditšwe gape gore go fapana go ya ka diintasteri, ka lebaka la diphapano ka go farologanyo ya ditšweletšwa ka difemeng le kamano ya tšona mabapi le dilo tšeo di amanago le mmaraka wa ka nageng. Bjalo ka kakaretšo, dinyakišišo tše di tlaleletša dingwalwa tšeo di lego gona ka ga hlogotaba ya dikgwebo tša boditšhabatšhaba. / Business Management / D. Phil. (Business Management)

La nouvelle stratégie d'intégration adoptée en 2000 par les pays Sud-Américains, après trois décennies d'instabilité économique et de crises récurrentes, est un jalon de l'histoire économique de la région. En effet, la volatilité du cycle économique de ces pays s'est réduite significativement à partir de cette date, atteignant son niveau le plus bas depuis 1950. L'analyse d'un tel phénomène est particulièrement intéressante en particulier lorsque l'on se place dans le contexte de turbulences et de crises des années 2000, à savoir, la crise financière mondiale (2008-2009) et, dans son sillage, la crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro. Dans cette thèse, l'objectif est d'étudier le projet d'intégration régionale d'Amérique du Sud, institutionnalisé en 2008 avec la création de l'Union des Nations Sud-Américaines Unasur, en tant que vecteur de stabilisation de ces économies. De ce fait, il s'agit de concentrer l'analyse sur les interactions entre les douze pays du continent Sud-Américain – Argentine, Bolivie, Brésil, Chili, Colombie, Équateur, Guyana, Paraguay, Pérou, Uruguay, Suriname et Venezuela – qui forment un groupe hétérogène autour d'un objectif commun l' "… intégration culturelle, sociale, économique et politique …" et la "… réduction des asymétries de la qualité de vie de ses citoyens … ". La thèse s'intéresse exclusivement aux aspects économiques d'un tel projet d'intégration régionale. À partir d'outils empiriques et théoriques, nous cherchons à évaluer le niveau de convergence et de vulnérabilité des économies concernées. Plus particulièrement une analyse des impacts des politiques d'intégration dans court terme et une étude de leurs performances macroéconomiques de long terme. La thèse se divise en quatre chapitres et s'appuie sur des modèles qui intègrent diverses sources de diffusion des chocs asymétriques. Le premier chapitre présente l'état de l'art de la théorie d'intégration économique régionale en soulignant le cas Sud-Américain. Le deuxième chapitre analyse, à l'aide de modèles vectoriels autorégressifs structurels et de mesures de corrélation, l'impact de chocs externes sur les secteurs réel, monétaire et budgétaire des pays membres de l'Unasur. L'analyse montre que : (i) même les pays les plus fermés (Argentine et Venezuela) et les plus industrialisées (Brésil) présentent une forte vulnérabilité aux perturbations internationales, (ii) cette vulnérabilité individuelle se traduit en une convergence de court terme des trajectoires des principales variables macroéconomiques des pays concernés. Dans le troisième chapitre, on cherche à mesurer le degré de convergence de long terme des niveaux de vie des citoyens Sud-Américains à l’aide de modèles empiriques vectoriels à correction d'erreur et de techniques de cointégration. Les résultats montrent l'existence de tendances stochastiques communes à long terme. Cela signifie que les pays sont engagés dans un processus d'évolution vers un objectif commun, autrement dit, que les conditions de vie des citoyens Sud-Américains ne divergent pas à long terme. En fin, le troisième chapitre vise à analyser l'impact de l'investissement dans la construction de réseaux régionaux de transport, de communication et d'énergie, sur la réduction de l'hétérogénéité structurelle des pays de l'Unasur (projet IIRSA). En effectuant un certain nombre d'expériences de politique dans un cadre théorique, cette analyse constate que : (i) une accroissement d'investissement public en infrastructure suscite une augmentation du commerce intra-intra-régional mais pas forcément une réduction de l'écart de production entre les pays, (ii) l'écart de production à long terme entre l'Argentine et le Brésil diminue, dans un scénario gagnant-gagnant, en termes de croissance économique, seulement si les gouvernements de ces deux pays coordonnent leur augmentation d'investissement en infrastructure, comme proposé par l'IIRSA. / Economic integration seems to be a new global trend. The past two decades have witnessed the formation of several economic unions in Asia (ASEAN+3 in 1997), Europe (Eurozone in 1999), Africa, and America (Union of South American Nations, Unasur in 2008). The South American case deserves special attention because, unlike the other blocs, the Unasur emerged as a political alliance and not as an economic one. Furthermore, Unasur is conceived as a strategy for improving the socioeconomic conditions of nations that have a common history of economic instability and external dependence. However, while common concerns and political willingness exist among group members, the question of whether that consensus is sufficient to ensure economic integration remains unanswered. For instance, economic integration as a strategy for macroeconomic stability has seemed to work well in Europe after the euro was launched in 1999 (Sapir, 2011), until the breakdown of the European sovereign debt crisis in recent years has revealed the inherent weaknesses of an economic union that lacks a political union (Fligstein et al., 2012, Issing, 2011). This development suggests that the Unasur project is likely to fail if the concerned economies do not converge economically. This is the reason why, this thesis assesses the Unasur project from an economic integration perspective, thus, complementing the huge body of political literature that has been developed on the issue (Briceño-Ruiz, 2014, Sanahuja, 2012). The first chapter describes the theory of economic integration' state of art focusing on South America. The second chapter examines the reactions of the Unasur economies to external shocks. By using a structural vector autoregression approach, it measures the impact of three external shocks (monetary, commercial, and financial) in the real, monetary, and fiscal economic sectors of Unasur economies and investigates co-movement paths. The results show (i) a non-negligible degree of synchronization across the studied economies, confirming their high external vulnerability, (ii) irrespective of size or integration degree, all Unasur members share mutual weaknesses, which they must fight to overcome. The third chapter evaluates the convergence in real GDP per-capita, as a suitable proxy measure, of the concerned economies for the period 1951-2011. By relying on cointegration techniques and applying Bernard and Durlauf's (1995) stochastic definitions of convergence and common trends, the presented evidence supports the existence of common long-run trends driving output in South America, meaning that the region is involved in a dynamic process of convergence in living standards. Finally, the fourth chapter studies the economic spillovers of the most advanced structural project of the group: the Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA). A micro-founded two-country general equilibrium model is constructed to evaluate potential gains or losses (in terms of output convergence and trade integration) of raising publicly provided transportation infrastructure in a coordinated and uncoordinated manner. The model is solved using data from Argentina and Brazil. Results show that: (i) rising public investment in infrastructure boost commercial integration but not necessarily generates output converge, (ii) the only way for the Argentina and Brazil to achieve output convergence is to coordinate their increments on public infrastructure as proposed by the IIRSA.