Return to search

預測競賽, 解釋預測機構的行為 / Explaining forecasters' behavior: sequential forecast contest

Paradoxically, pepole avoid being totally the same with others to keep their uniquness but follow the fads to avoid isolation. We construct a simple model under this concept to explain the empirical findings of forecasters’ behavior such as old forecasters are more radical and late forecasters tend to anti-herd. We show that forecasters' forecasts are not necessarilly unbiased when they consider
the benefit of making correct forecasts and the cost of being wrong. Furthermore, we extended our model and show that when uninformed agent cannot differentiate which informed agents is better, she chooses mean of the two experts' opinions when the difference of the opinions is small but choose randomly from the two experts' opinions when the difference is big.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0096258018
Creators黃柏鈞, Huang, Po Chun
Publisher國立政治大學
Source SetsNational Chengchi University Libraries
Language中文
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext
RightsCopyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders

Page generated in 0.0012 seconds