Paradoxically, pepole avoid being totally the same with others to keep their uniquness but follow the fads to avoid isolation. We construct a simple model under this concept to explain the empirical findings of forecasters’ behavior such as old forecasters are more radical and late forecasters tend to anti-herd. We show that forecasters' forecasts are not necessarilly unbiased when they consider
the benefit of making correct forecasts and the cost of being wrong. Furthermore, we extended our model and show that when uninformed agent cannot differentiate which informed agents is better, she chooses mean of the two experts' opinions when the difference of the opinions is small but choose randomly from the two experts' opinions when the difference is big.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0096258018 |
| Creators | 黃柏鈞, Huang, Po Chun |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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