The increasing volume of solid waste (SW), not only arising from household (Municipal SW, MSW) but also from industrial process (Industrial SW, ISW), has become a serious issue in Chinese metropolises with the economic growth, urbanization, industrialization, and increasing affluence. Growth of industry leads to the expansion of population, while the augment of demand by increasing population stimulates the industrial growth in turn, thereby increasing not only ISW generation, but also MSW generation. Therefore, in order to solve the waste problem for the construction of sustainable waste management system in a city, it is necessary to consider these two types of waste together, in which, the emphasis should be focused on waste reduction from the source. The starting point in adopting this should be a good understanding of the upstream flow of waste and accurate knowledge of the volume and composition of waste that will be generated in the future. However, due to deficient historical records and complex production process, the effective attempts at forecasting SW generation are far from enough, especially for ISW by waste category. A common approach which is based on the limited waste statistics and can be easily popularized into Chinese countries is thus urgent. This paper, therefore, attempts the construction of a systematic approach to make projections of SW generation by waste category from the following issues: (1) to develop household consumer behaviour model taking into account lifestyle of residents and project the demand of private consumption in the future; (2) to quantitatively investigate and project MSW generation fully considering the change in consumer behaviour and waste management policies; (3) to effectively evaluate the present and future industrial structure and their contributions to ISW generation among industries; (4) to carry out a scenario analysis of calculating CO2 emissions in different waste treatment options based on the projected waste quantity and composition in 2015. The approach is applied on a city level as the basic administrative unit of SW management in China. The entire framework comprises four modules-regional macro-economic module, MSW generation module, ISW generation module, and waste treatment module. Further, the study of consumption pattern conducted from the consumer behaviour model in MSW module is a prerequisite for industrial restructuring caused by change in consumption demand in ISW module. Moreover, the regional macro-economic module is to provide a means for economic structural analysis and economic forecasting, considering the influence of national GDP and socioeconomic indicators including world trade. It is found out that the regional model fits the historical records reasonably well and provides an acceptable reproduction. In the MSW generation module for estimating and projecting MSW generation, firstly the per capita total household consumption expenditure is estimated by using total consumption expenditure model; then, household consumption pattern is estimated using an extension of the linear expenditure system (LES); thereafter, MSW generation by composition is quantitatively expressed in terms of the expenditure for consumption category and waste management policies by using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, five Chinese cities with distinct economic levels are presented by applying the module to determine the waste generation features in different regions. The research findings clearly indicate that 1) the number of variables affecting consumer behaviour in Chinese cities is not one but the integrations of a series of indicators. Aside from Shanghai, saving rate towards consumption (SAV) and natural growth rate (NAGR) are currently the two common factors. However, in Shanghai, consumer behaviour is strongly influenced by SAV and the average number of persons per household (ANPH). 2) The MSW generation model quantitatively demonstrates the linear conversion process from consumption to corresponding waste generation in all cities. For example, education and consumption of food-as the form of consumption expenditure in this research-is the source of generation of food, plastic and paper waste. Further, glass and metal waste is estimated by food expenditure in all cities. 3) Total MSW generation per unit consumption is 0.198~0.225 kg/RMB with an average value of 0.213 kg/RMB. 4) All the waste management policies analyzed in the research will provide feasible experiences or valuable lessons to other Chinese cities. 5) Volume of per capita MSW generated in 2020 will be 1.24-2.18 folds compared to that in 2008 in each city if there were no effective policies implemented advancing to diminishing waste generation. Then, for the forecasting of ISW generation of each waste category by industry, the ISW module is developed, linking three principal models-regional macro-economic model, regional input-output (IO) analysis, and ISW generation model. The approach investigates the influence of industrial restructuring on ISW generation, based on the study of consumption patterns, export composition figures and change in ISW generation coefficient. The principal priorities in the case study on Shanghai are as follows: 1) the approach provides an idea for a way to quantitatively analyze industrial restructuring by adjusting the converter that, in turn, helps assess the impact of these changes on sectoral output. 2) A sensitivity analysis describes that per yuan of increase in consumption on FOOD, CLSH, FUNI, EDUC, TRAN, HLTH and RESI induces to an average increase of 76.41, 76.16, 82.28, 106.54, 93.89, 148.30 and 292.58 g total ISW, respectively. 3) It is verified that ISW generation not only arises from economic growth but also from the onset of industrial restructuring. The unit ISW generation per gross output reduces from 0.16 to 0.14 tons/10 000 RMB as we move from 2002 to 2020. 4) It is investigated that the total volume of ISW generated in 2010, 2015 and 2020 will be 2.07, 2.83 and 4.12 times that of the 2002 levels. The total SW generation of Shanghai in 2020 will be 4.06 times of that in 2002. 5) However, if considering scenario analysis of adjusting ISW generation coefficient, the total SW generation is 1.93 times compared to 2002 and ISW is 2.18 times of MSW generation. 6) Based on our results, the industrial sectors making the biggest contribution to the production of each type of ISW can each be separately identified. Therefore, constraining specific industries or penetrating them with selective technological changes will be useful attempts on the way to meeting the objectives of overall waste reduction. Finally, in the waste treatment module, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emitting from the treatment and disposal of waste, including landfill site, waste-to-energy incineration and composting are calculated, respectively. Further, based on the projection of waste quantity and composition of Shanghai in 2015, a scenario analysis is carried out as well concerning the GHG emissions from alternative treatment options. The results confirm that composting and recycling of waste before the treatment are effective attempts at reducing GHG emissions in Shanghai. Further, scenario designed as the integrated waste treatment system makes the biggest reduction of GHG emissions, as 34% as compared to current treatment options with energy recovery. In a word, this research develops the entire systematic approach investigating the upstream flow of waste generation from the viewpoint of economic growth, change in socioeconomic indicators and constitution of waste management policies, and makes a reasonable attempt at projecting SW generation of each type of waste category. Based on the results, it is suggested that for the waste reduction to promote sustainable society, government interventions including promoting green consumption, reducing extra consumption, et al. and waste policies such as increasing recycling and penetrating technological innovation in specific industries will be effective. Further, based on the forecasts of SW generation, the recycling and appropriate treatment of waste generating from municipal and industrial process can be examined from the long view. From the relationship between ISW and MSW generation, the development of industry will promote the growth of service industry and induce greater generation of recyclable items. While the recycling of these items before the waste treatment is essential for effectively reducing GHG emissions which contribute to global warming. In addition, the systematic model can be easily popularized into other Chinese cities even other Asian developing cities, thereby possibly promoting the sustainable waste management of China and Asian countries. / Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第14928号 / 工博第3155号 / 新制||工||1473(附属図書館) / 27366 / UT51-2009-M842 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 松岡 譲, 教授 森澤 眞輔, 准教授 倉田 学児 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:kyoto-u.ac.jp/oai:repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp:2433/85389 |
| Date | 24 September 2009 |
| Creators | YANG, Jinmei |
| Contributors | 松岡, 譲, 森澤, 眞輔, 倉田, 学児, 楊, 金美, ヤン, ジンメイ |
| Publisher | 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 京都大学 |
| Source Sets | Kyoto University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | DFAM, Thesis or Dissertation |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | 許諾条件により本文は2010-04-01に公開 |
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