自1987年以來，台灣製造業就業比例開始大幅下降。這樣的情形，一般又稱為「去工業化」，引起了很多的討論與擔憂。許多人把台灣的「去工業化」歸咎於對中國大陸的投資與貿易。然而本文發現，台灣早在1996年之後便停止「去工業化」。如此現象迥異於一般已開發國家的情形，因此本文研究目的即在於探討台灣為何發生「去工業化」以及為何停止。本文首先將製造業分為「三階段、三類別」，並比較台灣經貿之發展，進行對照分析，發現：台灣傳統產業受到全球化因素影響造成勞動需求萎縮，導致台灣1987年與1996年之間出現「去工業化」；然自1997年開始，技術密集產業之勞動需求隨著對外投資與貿易增加而成長，使得台灣停止「去工業化」；其次本文依照「Rowthorn 模型」，先將製造業就業比例分為傳統產業與非傳統產業，再將造成「去工業化」的因素分為三類：經濟發展、全球化、景氣循環，並以實證分析檢驗台灣案例後發現：景氣差、失業率高對於傳統與非傳統產業的就業比例都有負向影響，但經濟發展與全球化因素對於傳統產業就業有顯著的負向影響，對非傳統產業則有顯著正向影響，促使傳統產業釋放出來的勞動力被非傳統產業所吸收，因此台灣的製造業整體就業比例得以維持在27%左右，並未如西方國家般持續得「去工業化」。 / Since 1987, the manufacturing employment rate in Taiwan had dropped dramatically for almost 10%. This situation, so called de-industrialization, has drown much attention and at many times been attributed to the expanding investment and trade with China. However, the trend of de-industrialization in Taiwan, unlike cases in other developed countries, has been stopped since 1996. The aim of this article is to find out why de-industrialization had once taken place in Taiwan and why it then got stopped. Firstly, we employed the correlation analysis on the data categorized as “three sectors and three phases”. Results indicated the negative impact of outward investment and trade with China on conventional industries and positive impact on non-conventional ones. Secondly, based on the “Rowthorn Model”, we used regression analysis to examine whether economic development, globalization, or busyness cycle will affect the employment rate of conventional and non-conventional industries. We found out that both economic development and globalization factors had caused the decrease of labor demand in conventional industries and the increase in non-conventional industries. The declining of conventional industries was the cause of de-industrialization after 1987, while the non-conventional industries, not the service industries, keep absorbing labors from conventional ones and therefore stopped the trend of de-industrialization after 1996.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0962610101 |
| Creators | 蔡濟安, Tsai, Chi An |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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