股市起起落落，何謂真實價值，投資人如何在股海中獲取超額報酬呢？本研究採用三種評價模型-D C F 法、A P V 法以及本益比法來評估公司的真實價值，然後與市價做比較，然後與市場做比較，且分析市場價值與模型所推算出的公司價值間是否有差異性存在？若有，便根據差異程度高達 10%以上者做低買高賣的頭資，不過在文中本研究只採用買的投資行為以形成一個投資組合，同時檢視投資組合在「買入持有」半年及一年之後的投資績效，最後再與大盤及共同基金做績效比較。
實證結果發現，依據本研究所評價出的公司價位與市價間的確有差異性存在，而依此差異性所建立的投資組合績效以 DCF 法、APV 法及超額報酬法最佳，其不僅較本益比法有較佳的報酬，並能打敗大盤與前 25%共同基金的績效表現。 / This paper discusses three business valuation models, including DCF, APV and P/E ratio.The first step is computing the true value (model price) belong to the stockholder. Then compare the true value with the market price.If the difference is really large enough, form a "buy and hold" investment portfolio for half an year and one year. Finally test whether the portfolios forming base on valuation models can beat the market and most of the mutual fund. The empirical evidence is, the DCF, APV methods not only outperform the P/E ratio but also the market and the first 25% of the mutual fund.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002001893 |
| Creators | 陳奉珊, Chen, Feng-Shan |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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