冷戰結束之後，亞太地區的情勢因蘇聯內部共黨勢力的瓦解，而美國也因內部經濟問題無法負擔龐大的軍事費用而逐漸退出亞太，造成亞太地區的權力真空。這段期間內，中共已從1979年後的改革開放中取得綜合國力的提升，使中共得以在亞太地區竄起，逐漸發展成為區域強權，到現在被視為是美國潛在對手的世界強權。
中共之所以能取得今天的地位，主要靠的就是經濟的持續成長，然成長的動力乃來自於對能源之需求。目前中共為僅次於美國的全球第二大石油消費國，不過，這背後卻是高度依賴進口石油，其中80 %是經印度洋、麻六甲海峽及南海運抵大陸。從安全及經濟戰略的角度切入，中共沒有不掌握南海控制權的理由。這也道出後冷戰時期國家戰略的轉變，逐漸從陸地轉為重視海上的主權與安全，由此，中共在南海戰略布局，建立海軍基地，正是為了維護在南海的利益。
然而這樣的利益卻因為南海議題至終仍僵持不下，影響中共在南海戰略的目標與規畫，例如1982年的海洋公約法各自宣布經濟海域之範圍，使得各國主權的行使上具有相互重疊的部分，加上南海區域所蘊含著可觀的石油資源和航線價值，導致各個當事國皆不願放棄其主權的擁有。更不用說是境外勢力的介入，都使得南海問題變得更加複雜，進而改變中共在南海的戰略。
由此，本文將從這個錯綜複雜的問題中，先探討南海爭議的源頭與脈絡，有助於了解中共制定南海政策的背景。其次再從政治、經濟以及軍事方面來分析中共在南海的意圖和戰略，包括了在海南設立海軍基地、加速發展潛艦和航母等，研究中共海軍建軍的進程與南海戰略之關係。最後，再評估中共的南海戰略對區域安全所造成的衝擊，以及如何影響周邊國家和區外國家的行為。 / After the Cold War, there is no strong power in the Asia Pacific region as a result of the collapse of the communist Soviet Union while the United States (U.S.) had the economic problem which also made it to withdraw forces from that region. During this timeframe, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has improved its overall national power by reforms and transformations since 1979 which gave it opportunity to raise and become regional superpower and is being recognized as a potential global superpower and adversary to the U.S.
PRC gained today’s position mainly through its continued economic growth and its growing momentum is constructed upon the energy requirement. Currently, PRC is the second largest oil consumer besides the U.S. and is heavily dependent upon the imports in which 80 percent come from the Indian Ocean, Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. From the security and economics point of view, there is no reason PRC should give up the control of the South China Sea which explains its national strategy has shifted from continent thinking to focusing on the maritime sovereignty and security. Thus, PRC’s strategy in South China Sea and the construction of naval bases are to protect its interest in that area.
However, the territorial disputes of the South China Sea have influenced PRC’s strategic goal and planning. For instance, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982 has the clause to announce economic zone which would overlap with neighboring countries. Furthermore, the potential undiscovered oil underneath the South China Sea and the critical sea lanes made relevant nations unwilling to give up their claims, not to say the involvement of foreign powers. All these have made the South China Sea a complicated issue which also affected PRC to change its South China Sea strategy.
Thereby, this paper will examine the origin of this complicated South China Sea issue which will help readers to understand the background of the forming of PRC’s South China Sea policy. Next, we will analyze PRC’s intent and strategy from political, economical and military aspects, including its set up of naval bases in that area and the speedup of the development of aircraft carrier and submarine, and also the relationship between PLA Navy’s buildup and the South China Sea. Finally, we will analyze the security impact to that area by PRC’s South China Sea strategy and how it affects peripheral nations’ behavior and nations outside that area.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0099922022 |
| Creators | 顏清城 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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