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Previous issue date: 2016-08-24 / Introduction: Stroke is a complication responsible for high morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery, affecting 1.3 to 4.3% and mortality between 13% and 41%. Several models have been proposed to assess the risk of mortality after cardiac surgery. However, most of these models doesn?t evaluate the postoperative morbidity. Objective: To develop a risk score model for postoperative stroke in patients undergoing cardiac surgery (coronary artery bypass surgery, valve replacement surgery and combined - CABG + valve replacement), with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). Methods: The study sample included data from 4,862 adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery between January 1996 to December 2012, at the Hospital S?o Lucas. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and the development of stroke. After univariate and multivariate analysis, data from 3,258 patients were used to develop the model. Its performance has been validated in the remaining patients (n = 1,604). The final model was constructed with the total sample, remaining the same variables. The accuracy of the model was tested using the area under the ROC curve. Results: The estimated incidence for stroke in the postoperative period was 3% (149). Among patients who developed stroke, 59.1% were male, 51% were aged ? 66 years and 31.5% died. The mean age of the study population was 58.9 ? 12 years. In multivariate analysis, five variables remained independent predictors for the outcome: age, urgent / emergency surgery, peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD), history of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time> 110 minutes. The area under the ROC curve obtained was 0.71 (95% CI 0.66 to .75). Conclusion: The risk score allows to establish the calculation of the incidence of stroke after cardiac surgery using clinical and surgical variables (age, surgical priority, PAD, CVD history and CPB time). From these variables, it was possible to construct a risk score that classifies patients as low, medium, high and very high operative risk for cerebrovascular stroke. / Introdu??o: O acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) ? uma complica??o respons?vel por alta morbi-mortalidade no p?s-operat?rio de cirurgia card?aca, com incid?ncia de 1,3 a 4,3% e mortalidade entre 13% e 41%. V?rios modelos foram propostos para avaliar risco de mortalidade ap?s cirurgia card?aca. Entretanto, a maioria desses modelos n?o avalia a morbidade p?s-operat?ria. Objetivo: Desenvolver um modelo de escore de risco para AVC p?s-operat?rio de pacientes submetidos ? cirurgia card?aca (cirurgia de revasculariza??o do mioc?rdio, troca valvar e cirurgia combinada - CRM + troca valvar), com circula??o extracorp?rea (CEC). M?todos: A amostra do estudo incluiu dados de 4.862 pacientes adultos que realizaram cirurgia card?aca entre janeiro de 1996 a dezembro de 2012 no Hospital S?o Lucas da PUCRS. Regress?o log?stica foi utilizada para avaliar a rela??o entre fatores de risco e o desenvolvimento de AVC. Dados de 3.258 pacientes foram utilizados para desenvolver o modelo, ap?s an?lises uni e multivariada. Seu desempenho foi validado nos demais pacientes (n=1.604). O modelo final foi constru?do com a amostra total, permanecendo as mesmas vari?veis. A acur?cia do modelo foi testada utilizando-se a ?rea sob a curva ROC. Resultados: A incid?ncia estimada para AVC no p?s-operat?rio foi de 3% (149). Dentre os pacientes que desenvolveram o desfecho, 59,1% eram do sexo masculino, 51% tinham idade ? 66 anos e 31,5% evolu?ram para ?bito. Na an?lise multivariada, cinco vari?veis permaneceram preditoras independentes para o desfecho: idade avan?ada, cirurgia de urg?ncia/emerg?ncia, doen?a arterial obstrutiva perif?rica (DAOP), hist?ria de doen?a cerebrovascular (DCV) e tempo de circula??o extracorp?rea (CEC) > 110 minutos. A ?rea sob a curva ROC obtida foi de 0,71 (IC 95% 0,66 ? 0,75), Conclus?o: O escore de risco constru?do permite estabelecer c?lculo da incid?ncia de AVC ap?s cirurgia card?aca, utilizando vari?veis cl?nicas e cir?rgicas (idade, prioridade cir?rgica, DAOP, hist?ria de DCV e tempo de CEC). A partir dessas vari?veis, foi poss?vel construir um escore de risco que classifica o paciente como de baixo, m?dio, elevado e muito elevado risco operat?rio para o evento cerebrovascular AVC.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:tede2.pucrs.br:tede/7081 |
| Date | 24 August 2016 |
| Creators | Magedanz, Ellen Hettwer |
| Contributors | Bodanese, Luiz Carlos |
| Publisher | Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Medicina e Ci?ncias da Sa?de, PUCRS, Brasil, Faculdade de Medicina |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS, instname:Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, instacron:PUC_RS |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | 7620745074616285884, 600, 600, 600, -8624664729441623247, -969369452308786627 |
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