本文利用一九九三∼一九九四年，與一九九七∼一九九九年中國大陸官方的地區別產業合併資料（panel data），運用固定效果計量模型（fixed effect model），以Chenery修正後的Hoffmann指數的倒數（C-H指數）為應變數，來檢測外人直接投資，對中國大陸製造業產業升級的影響。
從實證模型的迴歸結果發現。首先，在檢視外資對中國大陸製造業產業升級上，結果發現中國大陸外資的引進，對製造業的產業升級並沒有幫助，甚至出現反工業化（de-industrialization）的情形。這樣的結果雖人令人驚訝卻也合理。歸咎原因，在於（1）中國大陸的外資來源，大部分是來自台港澳外資，而台港澳外資所投資的產業，主要是在勞力密集型的產業，生產消費財產品居多。（2）從實證結果中可知，並非絕對表示中國大陸製造業沒有產業升級的情形，而是表示外資在其本身所投資的產業，相對於全國平均產業，其產業升級的幅度小於全國平均產業的水準。因此相對而言，外資對中國大陸製造業，並沒有促進產業升級的影響。
其次，針對不同來源外資，對中國大陸製造業產業升級的影響。實證結果顯示，台港澳外資對中國大陸製造業的產業升級，並無顯著影響；一般外資的引進，對中國大陸製造業的產業升級並沒有幫助，反而出現反工業化的情形。
另外，針對不同來源外資，對不同工業化程度地區製造業產業升級的影響。實證結果顯示，台港澳外資，對中國大陸高工業化程度地區的製造業工業化程度的影響，與在低工業化程度地區的製造業比較，有提升產業升級的影響；一般外資對中國大陸高工業化程度地區製造業的產業升級，與低工業化程度地區製造業比較，並無明顯不同。
雖然從研究結果可得知，似乎中國大陸引進外資越多，不但無助於產業升級，甚至出現反工業化的情形。然而，從中國大陸的產業發展策略來看，在一九七九年改革開放之前，由於中國大陸實行重工業優先發展的「趕超戰略」，雖然使得中國大陸的工業得以迅速發展，但卻造成產業結構的嚴重失衡，農、輕、重工業的比例關係失調。因此，在引進外資的政策與過程中，希望利用外資的力量，來彌補中國大陸消費財產業的缺口，尤其佔外資來源最大的台港澳外資，也多是以生產消費財產業為主。所以整體而言，中國大陸引進外資的策略，對整體產業結構的調整，仍是有利的。 / This thesis investigates the issue regarding whether or not foreign direct investment (FDI) has upgraded China’s industrial structure. Using China’s official regionally-based panel data in 1993~1994, and 1997~1999, and several specifications of the fixed-effect model with a reciprocal of the Chenery-revised-Hoffmann ratio (C-H ratio) as the dependent variable, the primary finding is that FDI has had a negative influence on industrial upgrading in China during this period. This conclusion is surprising, but reasonable, due to (1) FDI resources coming from Hong Kong and Taiwan are concentrated on consumption goods industries in China. (2) FDI didn’t have absolutely a negative influence on industrial upgrading in China. Relative to the level of industrialization, industries of FDI is less then total industries. Therefore, FDI was no use on industrial upgrading in China.
Secondly, this thesis separated the source of FDI into Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao (THM hereafter), and other FDI (FOR hereafter), the conclusion indicated that both THM and FOR have had a negative influence on industrial upgrading in China during this period.
Besides, relative to the different level of industrialization, the conclusion indicated that THM has had positive influence in the regions of low level of industrialization, than in the regions of high level of industrialization. FOR has had no influence in all regions.
Although the conclusion showed that FDI has had a negative influence on industrial upgrading in China during this period. However, due to the development of heavy industry was priority in China’s industrial policy before 1979, the industrial structure in China was not balance. Therefore, to attract FDI has became the most important policy to make up for the gap of consumer goods industry. In conclusion, the policy to attract FDI could adjust the industrial structure in China.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/A2002001193 |
| Creators | 潘俊男, Pan, Jiun-Nan |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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