本論文以公司規模大小、公司成長率、盈餘變異程度、盈餘持續率、負債比率、系統風險、以及產業別為控制變數，探討管理當局持股比率與管理當局自願性（強制性）盈餘預測準確度、盈餘管理程度之關係。並進一步探討管理當局持股比率與七個控制變數之交互作用對管理當局自願性（強制性）盈餘預測準礁度及盈餘管理程度之影響。
本實證研究結果發現：
1、自願性盈餘預測方面：
(1)管理當局持股比率越高且盈餘變異程度越大之公司，盈餘預測誤差越高，盈餘預測準確度越低。
(2)管理當局持股比率越高且負債比率越高之公司，盈餘預測誤差越高，盈餘預測準確度越低。
(3)產業別會影響其預測準確度，而產業中以鋼鐵業之盈餘預測準確度，顯著較高。
(4)公司成長率越高、盈餘持續率越高，其盈餘管理程度越高。
(5)產業中以電子業有顯著較高之盈餘管理程度。
2、強制性盈餘預測力面：
(1)管理當局持股比率與盈餘預測準確度成正相關。
(2)公司規模與盈餘預測準確度成負相關。
(3)盈餘持續率與盈餘預測準確度成負相關。
(4)產業別確實與強制性盈餘預測準確度有關，其中以電子業之盈餘預測準確度顯著較低。
(5)管理當局持股比率越高之紡織業其盈餘預測準確度顯著較低。
(6)強制性盈餘預測並無顯著的盈餘管理情況產生。
3、綜合結論：
(1)自願性之盈餘預測準確度高於強制性之盈餘預測準確度。
(2)自願性之盈餘管理程度高於強制性之盈餘管理程度。 / This research hypothesizes that the level of managerial ownership that controlling for earnings growth、earnings variability、earnings persistence、company risk、 debt、industry、and size has effect on both the magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary(compelling) forecast and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment.
In addition，this study examines that there are interaction of ownership effects on both the magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary (compelling) forecast and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment.
The empirical results show as follow:
1、Voluntary forecast aspect:
(1) Managerial ownership is negatively associated with the magnitude of forecast precise.
(2) Managerial ownership of is positively associated with the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment.
2、Compelling forecast aspect:
(1) Managerial ownership is positively associated with the magnitude of forecast precise.
(2) Managerial ownership is not associated with the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment.
3、Conclusion explication:
(1) The magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary forecast is more than that of compelling forecast.
(2) The magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment of voluntary forecast is more than that of compelling forecast.
(3) Industry variable indeed affects both the magnitude of forecast precise and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002002820 |
| Creators | 周淑貞, Chou, Shu-Chen |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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