本研究以I/B/E/S中2004至2005年所有美國公司為樣本，依財務分析師盈餘預測值與所有財務分析師盈餘預測平均值之差異程度，將財務分析師分類為大膽或膽怯的財務分析師，並依財務分析師盈餘預測發布之時點將財務分析師分類為領導型或從眾型財務分析師。針對財務分析師盈餘預測行為大膽及領導特性，探討時效性領導型財務分析師之盈餘預測是否會較大膽，並進一步研究大膽的財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度是否較高，以及時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度是否較高。 研究結果發現時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測行為會較大膽，但大膽的財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度較低，且時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度並未出現較高的現象。 / Security analysts can be characterized as bold or herding based on the absolute distance between their earnings forecasts and the consensus forecast. Security analysts can also be classified as lead or following based on the timeliness of their earnings forecasts. Based on I/B/E/S annual earnings forecasts of all American companies during the period of 2004-2005, this study addresses the association between bold and lead and the relation between bold forecast and forecast accuracy. In addition, the relation between lead forecast and forecast accuracy is investigated as well. It is shown that lead analysts are bolder than following analysts and boldness likelihood increases with the frequency of analysts’ forecast and declines with the analysts’ prior accuracy. Further, bold analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate than herding analysts’ and lead analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate than following analysts.

本研究探討Banker and Chen (2006)建構之CVCS模型與本研究建構之CVCS’模型之盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵，並以ROE模型、OPINC模型、CASHFLOW模型與分析師盈餘預測作為判斷CVCS模型與CVCS’模型是否具有盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵之比較基準模型。盈餘預測準確度之實證結果顯示：(1)CVCS模型之盈餘預測準確度低於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之盈餘預測準確度；(2)CVCS’模型與ROE模型、OPINC模型、CASHFLOW模型之盈餘預測準確度並無差異；(3)CVCS模型之盈餘預測準確度低於分析師盈餘預測之盈餘預測準確度；(4)CVCS’模型之盈餘預測準確度低於分析師盈餘預測之盈餘預測準確度。資訊內涵之實證結果顯示：(1)CVCS模型之資訊內涵高於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之資訊內涵；(2)CVCS’模型之資訊內涵低於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之資訊內涵；(3)CVCS模型之資訊內涵低於分析師盈餘預測之資訊內涵；(4)CVCS’模型之資訊內涵低於分析師盈餘預測之資訊內涵。 / This study examines the forecast accuracy and the information content of CVCS model, proposed by Banker and Chen (2006), and CVCS’ model, constructed by this study. To evaluate the performances of these two models, this study uses ROE model, OPINC model, CASHFLOW model and analysts’ consensus forecasts as the benchmarks. The results of forecast accuracy show (1) the forecast accuracy of CVCS model is less than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (2) the forecast accuracy of CVCS’ model is not different from that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (3) the forecast accuracy of CVCS model is less than that of analysts’ consensus forecasts and (4) the forecast accuracy of CVCS’ model is less than that of analysts’ consensus forecasts. The results of information content show (1) the information content of CVCS model is greater than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (2) the information content of CVCS’ model is less than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (3) the information content of CVCS model is less than that of analysts consensus forecasts, (4) the information content of CVCS’ model is less than that of analysts consensus forecasts.

本論文以公司規模大小、公司成長率、盈餘變異程度、盈餘持續率、負債比率、系統風險、以及產業別為控制變數，探討管理當局持股比率與管理當局自願性（強制性）盈餘預測準確度、盈餘管理程度之關係。並進一步探討管理當局持股比率與七個控制變數之交互作用對管理當局自願性（強制性）盈餘預測準礁度及盈餘管理程度之影響。 　　本實證研究結果發現： 　　1、自願性盈餘預測方面： 　　(1)管理當局持股比率越高且盈餘變異程度越大之公司，盈餘預測誤差越高，盈餘預測準確度越低。 　　(2)管理當局持股比率越高且負債比率越高之公司，盈餘預測誤差越高，盈餘預測準確度越低。 　　(3)產業別會影響其預測準確度，而產業中以鋼鐵業之盈餘預測準確度，顯著較高。 　　(4)公司成長率越高、盈餘持續率越高，其盈餘管理程度越高。 　　(5)產業中以電子業有顯著較高之盈餘管理程度。 　　2、強制性盈餘預測力面： 　　(1)管理當局持股比率與盈餘預測準確度成正相關。 　　(2)公司規模與盈餘預測準確度成負相關。 　　(3)盈餘持續率與盈餘預測準確度成負相關。 　　(4)產業別確實與強制性盈餘預測準確度有關，其中以電子業之盈餘預測準確度顯著較低。 　　(5)管理當局持股比率越高之紡織業其盈餘預測準確度顯著較低。 　　(6)強制性盈餘預測並無顯著的盈餘管理情況產生。 　　3、綜合結論： 　　(1)自願性之盈餘預測準確度高於強制性之盈餘預測準確度。 　　(2)自願性之盈餘管理程度高於強制性之盈餘管理程度。 / This research hypothesizes that the level of managerial ownership that controlling for earnings growth、earnings variability、earnings persistence、company risk、 debt、industry、and size has effect on both the magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary(compelling) forecast and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　In addition，this study examines that there are interaction of ownership effects on both the magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary (compelling) forecast and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　The empirical results show as follow: 　　1、Voluntary forecast aspect: 　　(1) Managerial ownership is negatively associated with the magnitude of forecast precise. 　　(2) Managerial ownership of is positively associated with the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　2、Compelling forecast aspect: 　　(1) Managerial ownership is positively associated with the magnitude of forecast precise. 　　(2) Managerial ownership is not associated with the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment. 　　3、Conclusion explication: 　　(1) The magnitude of forecast precise of voluntary forecast is more than that of compelling forecast. 　　(2) The magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment of voluntary forecast is more than that of compelling forecast. 　　(3) Industry variable indeed affects both the magnitude of forecast precise and the magnitude of discretionary accounting accrual adjustment.

本研究以日本東京證券交易所上市公司為研究對象，探討董事會成員年齡與強制性盈餘預測之關聯性。本研究將董事會成員年齡區分為五種：董事長的年齡、董事會成員的平均年齡、董事會成員年齡的標準差、董事會成員最高年齡跟最低年齡的差距及董事長年齡是否高於董事會成員平均年齡，以測試其所發布盈餘預測準確度與盈餘預測偏差之關聯性。而實證結果發現董事長的年齡越大、董事會成員的平均年齡越大、董事長年齡高於董事會成員平均年齡時，所發布的盈餘預測準確度也就越高，且傾向較為保守的盈餘預測。而董事會成員年齡的標準差越大、董事會成員最高年齡與最低年齡差距越大時，所發布的盈餘預測準確度較低，且傾向較為樂觀的盈餘預測。