nÃo hà / Este estudo analisa a evoluÃÃo do endividamento do Estado do CearÃ, tomando como
indicador a razÃo entre a DÃvida Consolidada LÃquida (DCL) e a Receita Corrente LÃquida
(RCL), verificando a existÃncia de quebras estruturais da dÃvida pÃblica, no perÃodo de 2003 a
2013, considerando que esta relaÃÃo constitui-se em um importante indicador por influenciar a
tomada de decisÃo, no tocante a contrataÃÃo de operaÃÃes de crÃdito pelo Governo.
Adicionalmente, Ã realizada uma anÃlise comparativa com os Estados da Bahia e
Pernambuco. Para aferir a evoluÃÃo desta razÃo, empregam-se as metodologias desenvolvidas
por Perron e Yabu (2009a, 2009b). Os resultados da anÃlise demonstraram que o Estado do
Cearà vem mantendo o controle de seu endividamento, contribuindo para que a relaÃÃo
DCL/RCL fique em patamares reduzidos. Desta forma, o Estado està cumprindo a meta
estabelecida pela LRF. Os resultados do ensaio evidenciam que ocorreram quebras estruturais
nos trÃs estados pesquisados. Antes das quebras estruturais, todos os estados apresentavam
inclinaÃÃo negativa na razÃo DCL/RCL. O Cearà permanece no final de 2013, com a menor
razÃo DCL/RCL entre os trÃs estados analisados, embora apresente uma tendÃncia crescente
da razÃo DCL/RCL apÃs o 5Â bimestre de 2009. Mesmo com a tendÃncia de crescimento
identificada, o Estado do Cearà vem mantendo uma estratÃgia adequada e consistente,
contribuindo para que o seu endividamento fique dentro dos limites definidos em lei. / The main purpose of this thesis is to shed some light on the indebtedness of Ceara and to
analyze its development possibilities. We assume that an adequate evaluation of these
possibilities should deal with the ratio between consolidated net debt (CND) and current net
income (CNI). From this starting point, we verify if there are any structural breaks with
respect the public debt. This evaluation comprehends the period which goes from 2003 to
2013. We also analyze the arguments in favor of minimal common requirements on (CND) â
(CNI) and its relationship with these structural weakness. One is the fiscal requirement that
says that governments consider such a relationship as an important indicator which plays a
vital role on their decision makings such as credit operations. In addition, it will be made a
comparative analysis bearing the States of Bahia and Pernambuco. To quantify over the ration
between (CND) and (CNI), we employ throughout the thesis the methodologies formulated by
Perron and Yabu (2009a, 2009b), respectively. The analysis results show that the State of
Cearà still continues keeping a suitable strategy toward the maintenance and control of its
indebtedness at supportable levels. And the reason is that the ratio between CND â CNI
remains at reasonable levels. Also, as a positive outcome, the State is firmly respecting the
Fiscal Responsability Act. The simulations show that there were structural breaks in the three
states investigated, though before these all states had negative slope in the ratio CND â CNI.
In late 2013 Ceara State appeared as the slightest CND â CNI between the three states
analyzed, though showing a growing tendency with respect the CND â CNI after 5th quarter of
2009. Even this, the State of Cearà maintains an affirmative and consistent fiscal
sustainability, in virtue of this is that its indebtedness is within the limits stipulated by Fiscal
Responsibility Act.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:www.teses.ufc.br:10647 |
| Date | 24 February 2015 |
| Creators | Maria Elineide Melo de Sousa |
| Contributors | Carlos Eduardo dos Santos Marino, Guilherme Diniz Irffi, Andrei Gomes Simonassi |
| Publisher | Universidade Federal do CearÃ, Programa de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Economia - CAEN, UFC, BR |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC, instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará, instacron:UFC |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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