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股價評估模式的選擇--以台灣科技公司台達電為例 / A case study of how to choose the fittest model to value a company--Delta electronic company

本研究從了解台達電公司的背景,整體環境,產品的前景與市場獲利,公司結構和近來動向,技術合作生產方面,重要轉投資活動,達電與上下游廠商之間的關係和在產業中的優劣勢分析出發,對公司的背景有了透澈的了解後,開始以既有的財務報表 (民國76~87年) 為基礎對達電預估民國88~92年的財務報表,並且以學術的評估公司價值理論套用進來,如資產評價模型 (CAPM),競爭優勢期間 (Competitive advantage period),股利折現模型 (Gordon model),附加經濟價值模型 (EVA),修正附加經濟價值模型 (REVA),自由現金流量法 (Free cash flow),指標盈餘法 (indexed earnings),本益比 (P/E)、市價淨值比 (P/B) 和市價銷售比法 (P/S) 等,以了解這些模型對達電的適用性,並對上述的模型提出其是否適用的原因,作為日後評價類似台灣科技產業的參考。
此實例研究重點仍在如何將公司預估的財務報表作一系性地連結,並且建立在對其基本面的理解,完成此紮實的基礎再套用不同的評價理論,結論是以自由現金流量和相對價值模型: 本益比 (P/E)、市價淨值比 (P/B) 和市價銷售比法 (P/S),這些模型較能和市場價值近似。解釋原因: 自由現金流量和科技產業的特性有關,能對其大量的折舊稅值現金流入和儘量發放股票股利代替現金分配的因素加以考量,本益比 (P/E)、市價淨值比 (P/B) 和市價銷售比法 (P/S) 則因台灣有不少性質近似的同業和本身的歷史報表作為比較基礎,故使用起來亦方便且有效。

第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機與目的
第二節 研究範圍與限制
第三節 研究架構
第二章 文獻探討
第三章 研究達電公司
第一節 達電簡介
第二節 整體環境
第三節 產品的前景與市場獲利
第四節 公司結構和近來動向
第五節 技術合作生產方面
第六節 重要轉投資活動
第七節 達電與上下游廠商之間的關係
第八節 達電經營團隊的領導作風與政府和勞資的關係
第九節 達電在產業中的優劣勢分析
第四章 研究設計
第一節 研究假說
第二節 資料描述
第五章 實證結果
利用競爭優勢期間求算達電股價
以對權益的自由現金流量法
利用現金股利折現模型
以投資機會方法 (investment opportunities approach)
運用q (盈餘保留率) 的價格
指標盈餘 (indexed earnings) 方法
以EVA和REVA法求算達電經營績效
以本益比、市價淨值比和市價銷售比法
敏感性分析
第六章 結論與建議
參考文獻:
附錄 / There are many valuation models, such as CAPM, competitive advantage period model, Gordon dividend discount model, economic value added model, revised economic value added model, free cash flow model, and relative pricing models such as P/E, P/B and P/S, etc… But what is the fittest model for the high-tech stocks in Taiwan? In my thesis I picked Delta electronic company for my case study because it is one of the fastest growing corporations that is representative of the industry on this island. I started with understanding the fundamentals, strategy, strength, weakness, opportunity and the threat of Delta by analyzing its industry, structure, products and its affiliates domestically and abroad. On the basis of the existing financial statements of the past 12 years (1987~1998), I built the next 5-year ones (1999~2003). Then I applied the valuation models to find out the intrinsic value of Delta based on the information from my analysis, magazines, the internet, the library and other resources.
To sum up, this study pointed that the free cash flow model and the relative pricing models including P/E, P/B and P/S could fit the market well. Others are a little away from the quotes of the market. After all, the conclusion is not decisive that other models will never capture the value of the high-tech company like Delta electronic. However the main contribution of this research is the consistence of Delta's projected financial statements. They all connect all together. And all is based on the fundamentals of the company and the industry. Their relationship is what this case study accounts.
With this maneuver in the company's accounting numbers step by step, the market participants can apply to other similar companies in Taiwan high-tech industry as well. Or this can contribute to the academics for the scholars to study further on similar issues down the road.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002001424
Creators胡華盛, Hu, John
Publisher國立政治大學
Source SetsNational Chengchi University Libraries
Language中文
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext
RightsCopyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders

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