本文之目的在於探討冷戰後時期「中俄戰略協作夥伴關係」（Sino-Russian Partnership of Strategic Coordination）對戰略三角政治互動的意涵及其對台海安全的可能影響與衝擊。本文將以「系統理論研究途徑」（System Theory Approach）作為中心分析概念架構（central organizing concept）進行研究分析。
冷戰結束後，隨著蘇聯解體，冷戰時期的兩極格局已不復存在，大國之間的關係實行了相對的調整。在新的國際格局中，中國與俄羅斯兩國基於遏制「北約東擴」和防止「美日安保」條約的圍堵（Containment），雙方除了極力倡導多極化國際體系外，並進一步建立「戰略協作夥伴關係」，冀由強化雙邊的多層面關係，來共同對抗「美國霸權」局面。
中俄戰略協作夥伴關係之建立為新世紀中、俄兩國關係的發展奠定了良好基礎。10年來，中俄關係發展相當順利。1992年-2001年，中俄關係的發展，連續上了四個台階，這就是:（一）92年「互視為友好國家關係」;（二）94年「建設性夥伴關係」;（三）96年「戰略協作夥伴關係」。在此以後，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係在實踐中不斷得到充實和發展。（四）2001年7月中俄雙方簽署了一份歷史性文件「中俄睦鄰友好合作條約」（China-Russia Good-neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation Treaty），標誌雙方關係又進入一個新的發展階段。
在冷戰時期，中國、蘇聯與美國的戰略三角關係是影響國際政治變動的主要因素。蘇聯解體後，中俄關係發生重大變化，兩國已建立一個面向二十一世紀的戰略協作夥伴關係。作為冷戰後時期的世上唯一超強，美國非常關注中俄軍事合作面向之擴大。對美國而言，中國與俄羅斯為其全球戰略部署兩個最重要的國家，它們的重要性是因為它們的幅員、經濟潛力和軍事力量。其中最值得注意的是，中俄雙方在軍事和技術層面的合作，包括俄羅斯對中國的軍售。美國擔心中俄發展戰略協作夥伴關係，會導致中國軍力的增強，以及亞太區域「權力平衡」（Balance of Power）之改變。
本文認為，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係，就短程而言: 中俄「戰略匯合」（the Strategic Convergence between China and Russia）將使中俄在「政治」、「經濟」、「軍事」、「外交戰略」等合作面向獲得若干程度的「實質利益」（substantial interests）。同時中俄戰略協作夥伴關係之條約化將對美國在亞太區域戰略地位造成影響，從而衝擊到台海均勢與安全。然而，就長程而言: 未來中俄戰略協作夥伴關係發展，顯然仍有其「地緣政治」、「歷史上陰影」因素之侷限。
關鍵字: 中國、俄羅斯、系統理論分析途徑、現實主義、
國家利益、戰略三角互動、中俄戰略協作夥伴關係 / The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of the“Sino-Russian Partnership of Strategic Coordination” in the Post Cold War Era, on the strategic triangle politics and its implication for the security and balance of power across the Taiwan Straits. In this thesis, the “System Theory Approach” will be the central organizing concept, applied to the analysis.
After the Cold War, the bi-polar system has been broken since the collapse of the USSR. Relations among great powers were adjusted accordingly. PRC and Russia initiated multi-polar system and become“Partnership of Strategic Coordination ” to resist the “American hegemony”
It has laid a solid foundation for the development of Sino-Russian relations in the new century. In the past ten years, Sino-Russian relations witnessed a smooth progress. From 1992-2001, the relations progressed from“Friendly neighbors” to “Constructive partnership” to“Partnership of strategic coordination”. Since then,“China-Russia Good-neighborhood, Friendship and Cooperation Treaty”signed by the PRC and the Russia Federation in July 2001, marked a new era in the development of bilateral relations.
The Sino-Soviet-US triangular relations were the most dominant factor which affected the change of international politics in the Cold War period. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Sino-Russian relations have developed to a certain degree that the two countries have established a strategic partnership aimed at the 21st century. As the sole world super power, the United States is wary of Expanded Sino-Russian military cooperation. For the US, China and Russia are the two most important countries in the world. Their importance is derived from their size, their economic potential, and their military power. The US is much concerned about the development of Sino-Russian Strategic relations which may lead to a buildup of China’s military power and a change of Asia-pacific “Balance of Power”.
It is believed in this study that,“Sino-Russian Partnership of Strategic Coordination,” in the short term: “The Strategic Convergence between China and Russia,” China and Russia will gain to some degree the substantial interests from the bilateral cooperation, such as “Political” ,“Economic ”,“Military”,“Foreign Policy Strategy.”At the same time, the stipulation of the mechanism of Chinese-Russo partnership in the treaty will create impact on the US strategic position in the Taiwan Straits and security of Taiwan. Nevertheless, in the long term: In the future, the development of” Chinese-Russo strategic partnership” still has its limits in the terms of “Geopolitical” and “ Historical Shadow” conditions.
Key word: China, Russia, System Theory Approach, Realism, National Interest, Strategic Triangle Interaction,
Sino-Russian Partnership of Strategic Coordination
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0088253023 |
| Creators | 黃振祥, Huang , Martin |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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