Terrorism emerged in northern Mozambique in 2017 and is ostensibly attributed to Muslim militants. The first attacks occurred on 5 October 2017 in Mocimboa da Praia town in the northern Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado. The group known as ‘Ansar al-Sunnah’ or ‘Al-Shabaab’ appears to be inspired by international terrorist clerics and followers, specifically from Tanzania, such as Sheik Aboud Rogo. These individuals share similar aspirations, including the rejection of Western education and the establishment of Sharia law. The Islamic State Central Africa Province has claimed responsibility for the attacks. This was the first spate of attacks since the guerrilla offensive during the anti-colonial war in the 1960s, as well as attacks by Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (RENAMO) members during the Mozambican civil war. Since October 2017, 900 people have been killed and by 21 March 2020, over 80 attacks and 100 deaths had occurred. The aim of this research paper was to account for the re-emergence of terrorism in northern Mozambique, through the relationship of at least two causal factors. The research problem was that most of the literature on terrorism presents a one-sided explanation to account for its cause; the focus is on armed groups or their militants, while ignoring the many ways in which states (through governance, in particular) can influence the re-emergence of terrorism. The two key components of the re-emergence of terrorism in northern Mozambique — an enabling environment and the northern Mozambicans’ history of conflict and specifically terrorism — therefore show that literature centred on single religious and socio-economic causes of terrorism is discredited. The re-emergence of terrorism in northern Mozambique challenges the explanation that terrorism is attributed to a single cause. This research identified a gap in the literature. It pertained to the state’s role in facilitating and/or providing the breeding ground or enabling environment for terrorism. This research’s argument was twofold. Firstly, terrorism is not attributed to a single causal factor. Secondly, ignoring the state’s role in providing a breeding ground for terrorism is problematic. Therefore, the re-emergence of terrorism in northern Mozambique is likely to stem from the state’s inability to secure its people adequately, providing personal, community, political and economic security through effective governance practices. This research argued that when governments are ineffective in the provision of basic security and economic needs for their citizenry, ‘basic human insecurity’ is a result and thus contributes to the re-emergence of terrorism. Ultimately, poor governance, poor economic development, corruption and lack of human rights are ‘push factors’ towards terrorism. The locals are left feeling discontented and marginalised by government, which creates grievances as a stepping-stone towards terrorism in the north. Ultimately, the culmination of a history of conflict (including specifically terrorism), poor governance practices, and the influence of regional militants not only creates an insecure environment in the north, but establishes the region as an enabling environment for terrorism. / Mini Dissertation (MA (Security Studies))--University of Pretoria, 2020. / Political Sciences / MA (Security Studies) / Unrestricted

This thesis assesses four governmental responses to terrorism: conciliation, denial, legal restriction, and violence, each of which may be focused on an organization or its leaders. The theory makes predictions on the resulting frequency and severity of terrorism. Unless responses reduce an organization’s capacity or desire to attack, the frequency of attacks may be reduced, while the severity continues to increase. The theory is tested using a time series regression analysis of the effects of government action on terrorism in Algeria and the Philippines. In general, the results show that conciliation may led to increases in terrorism in the short term while suggesting potential reductions in the long term. Denial and legal restriction often led to increases in terrorism, while the effects of violence often depended upon whether the response was applied to organizations or their leaders.

Thesis advisor: Peter Krause / How do insurgent organizations form their strategies? Existing scholarship focuses on either strategic effectiveness or the exogenous conditions that produce specific strategies; there is significantly less work on how insurgents select between strategies or how those choices iterate into strategic change over time. The theory of insurgent organizational culture posits strategic preferences are produced by organizational culture. A significant body of scholarship analyzes the effect of organizational culture on state militaries and private businesses, but there has not yet been a systematic treatment of organizational culture’s effect on non-state militant organizations, i.e., insurgents. These organizations exist in a state of uncertainty, and their search for information is a powerful driving factor in the formation and evolution of their strategy. But there are a multitude of sources an organization can pull information from. Insurgent organizations differ in how they prioritize these different sources of information and how easily they are moved to change tact by new information; respectively, their embeddedness and reactivity. These two variable qualities comprise constitute insurgent organizational culture, which determines how insurgents convert information into strategy and strategic change. I use the Palestinian National Movement to develop this theory and weigh it against alternative explanations, comparing the organizational culture of Fatah, the PFLP, and Hamas. Analysis of primary sources and original interviews with key figures in Palestinian politics demonstrates these three organizations vary significantly in their organizational culture, leading to radically different approaches to strategy even under similar conditions and pursuing similar goals. Insurgent organizational culture theory shows that insurgent strategy is produced in an iterative process of rational updating rooted in organizational culture’s different prioritization of information and impetus for action under uncertainty; in so doing, it can explain variation in insurgent strategy more precisely than purely rationalist theories. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2024. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Political Science.

The development of threat assessment protocols has largely neglected a theoreticalfoundation, leading to a multitude of protocols with little shared in the way of scientificfoundation. The focus of this study is to test components of two theories – Sternberg’s (2018) FLOTSAM Model and Maynard and Benesch’s (2016) Integrated Model of Dangerous Speech (IMDS) – as potential criteria to use in assessing the seriousness of online threats. This study utilized a dataset of 500 open-source online communications linked to the extremist QAnon movement. An EFA was used to pull an empirical model from the data. Three CFA and SEM were performed to assess model fit and threat prediction. The EFA found three factors of QAnonposts: foot soldier posts, fearmonger posts, and true believer posts. Overall, the study found support for the use of the IMDS in analyzing online threat. Future research should incorporate other ideologies and theories into further analysis.

The nexus between terrorism and narcotics is historically well documented. However, its contemporary development is rarely brought to light. Rather, narcoterrorism is often considered to be an outdated phenomenon and characteristic of only Latin America. Nevertheless, narcoterrorism continues to be a global security concern. As terrorism has evolved over the recent decade, terrorist relations to the narcotic industry have also evolved. Understanding the unique characteristics of contemporary narcoterrorism is important to effectively combating both terrorism and narcotics globally. The intent of this thesis is to comparatively analyze the differences between traditional and contemporary terrorist organizations, and how these differences will affect the international nexus between the narcotic industry and terrorist organizations. The presented research supports the argument of an increasingly strong connection between contemporary terrorist organizations and the contemporary narcotic industry. Case study examples will give testimony to the historically significant and negative effects of narcoterrorism and illustrate the future of narcoterrorism. The overall objectives of this research project is to raise awareness of the role of contemporary narcoterrorism and to promote greater acknowledgement of its potential.

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