Orientador: Lucia Galvão de Albuquerque / Resumo: A seleção de animais geneticamente superiores com base na informação genômica tem sido uma tendência crescente e promissora em programas de melhoramento. No entanto, os principais métodos de predição genômica envolvem modelos paramétricos, que em sua maioria, assumem somente variância aditiva para o efeito dos marcadores, ignorando-se possíveis relações não-lineares. A consideração de tais efeitos pode ser importante para melhorar a habilidade de predição em características com arquitetura genética complexa. Recentemente, tem crescido o interesse em métodos de predição semi e não paramétricos. Dentro desse contexto, os métodos de aprendizagem de máquina tais como Redes Neurais Artificiais (ANN), “Random Forest” (RF) e “Support Vector Machines” (SVM) são alternativas interessantes. Os objetivos do presente estudo foram: i) Comparar o desempenho preditivo do modelo “Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor” (GBLUP) e de métodos de aprendizagem de máquina em populações simuladas de bovinos de corte, apresentando diferentes níveis para efeitos de dominância; ii) Investigar a habilidade de predição de diferentes métodos de aprendizagem de máquina para predição genômica de características reprodutivas em bovinos da raça Nelore; iii) Desenvolver um estudo de associação genômica ampla (GWAS) utilizando a metodologia “Random Forest”, a fim de buscar genes candidatos para idade ao primeiro parto em novilhas da raça Nelore. No primeiro estudo, o genoma simulado compreendeu um painel de SN... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The selection of genetically superior animals based on genomic information has been an increasing and promising trend in breeding programs. However, the main methods used for genome-enabled prediction involve parametric models that mostly assume only additive variance for markers effects, ignoring possible nonlinear relationships. Accounting for such effects may be important to improve the predictive ability for traits with complex genetic architecture. The interest in semi and non-parametric prediction methods has recently increased. Within this context, machine learning methods such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are an interesting alternative. The aims of the present study were: i) To compare the predictive performance of Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (GBLUP) and machine learning methods in simulated beef cattle populations presenting different degrees of dominance; ii) To investigate the predictive ability of different machine learning for genome-enabled prediction of reproductive traits in Nellore cattle and compare their performance with parametric approaches (GBLUP and BLASSO); iii) To perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using the Random Forest approach for scanning candidate genes for age at first calving in Nellore heifers. In the first study, the simulated genome comprised 50k single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 300 QTL (Quantitative Trait Loci), both biallelic and randomly distrib... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Doutor

Thesis (M.Sc. Agriculture (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2020 / The purpose of this study was to analyse socioeconomic factors influencing formal and informal market participation by beef cattle farmers. Cattle production plays an important role in the provision of food worldwide. It important for farmers to participate in the market to improve their income and livelihood. Globally, it was discovered that livestock production contribute value to the economic development of various countries. Ethiopia is one of the countries that generate more income from the livestock production. In the study area farmers participate in the lower level of market participation. They sell at informal market than formal market because of insufficient market channel. The farmers seldom sell since their sale depends on the availability of the market. Hence it was important to analyse socioeconomic factors influencing informal and formal market participation by small-scale beef cattle farmers at Makhado Local Municipality. The aim of the study was to analyse socioeconomic factors influencing informal and formal market participation of small-scale beef cattle farmers in Makhado Local Municipality. The objectives of the study were to identify, describe the socioeconomic characteristic of beef cattle, determine the level of market participation of the beef cattle and analyse the influence of socioeconomic factors in the participation of the beef cattle farmers in both the formal and informal market in Makhado local municipality. Structured questionnaires were used to interview 82 cattle farmers who participate in both informal and formal markets. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse socioeconomic characteristics of the cattle farmers. The logistic regression model was used to analyse factors that influence the participation of small-scale cattle farmers in both formal and informal markets. Lastly, market participation index tool was used to analyse the percentage of each farmer’s participation in different markets. The descriptive statistic results were showing men dominating participation in the market than women. The findings illustrate that farmers participating in the market were mostly pensioners who depend on social grant. Most of them are married and v have low level of education. The study also revealed that most beef cattle farmers are engaged in cattle farming for the purpose of sale instead of consumption. The logistic regression model results shows the coefficients for the independent variables such as gender, family size and farming experience to be significant at 1%. Age, marital status, monthly income, and distance to the market were found to be significant at 5%. Membership association were found to be significant at 10%. Educational level, extension services as well as the market information were found to be insignificant. The market participation index tool results revealed that the participation of beef cattle farmers in level 1 was 74.39%, level 2 18.29%, level 3 3.66% and lastly, in level 4, it was 3.66%. Additionally, the study revealed that only 1 farmer had a minimum score of participation of 3 and another farmer scored the highest participation of 23 out of all 82 farmers who participated in different market channels namely, homestead, village market, auctions, town market and fresh produce market. The study indicated various constraints faced by cattle farmers in both formal and informal markets. However, for a farmer to be a full participant all farmers should be able to participate in all the above-mentioned market channels. Additionally, for a farmer to increase his/her level of market participation, there is a need for each farmer to sell many cattle per year in different marketing channels mentioned above. It is also vital to increase the cattle productivity and to decrease identified constraints that negatively influence market participation of beef cattle farmers. Furthermore, constraints influencing market participation of beef cattle farmers need to be addressed to increase the sale of cattle by farmers. This requires assistance by both government and non-governmental stakeholders. Government stakeholders include extension officers, agricultural experts and veterinaries, while nongovernmental stakeholders include meat quality experts, agricultural cattle commercial farmers, and cattle farm managers. / Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

Text in English / Cow size influences biological efficiency of individual animals, which influences herd composition and stock flow. This in turn influences the economic efficiency of the herd. This research followed the thread from animal size, to biological efficiency, to economic efficiency for beef cattle production under a typical production system in semi-arid South Africa. Cattle were grouped into three groups namely small, medium and large cattle, with mature weights of 300kg, 450kg and 600kg respectively. The net energy requirements of individual cattle were calculated for maintenance, growth, lactation and foetal production, for each of the three sizes. Growth rates, milk yield, reproduction rates, and management practices were assumed from existing research. Next the stock flow for a herd of small, medium and large cattle were calculated from the above. Income and expenses as commonly used in the research area were calculated from the stock flow. Gross profit above allocated costs were subsequently calculated for the three herds under the above-mentioned conditions. When assuming similar reproduction and growth rates for small, medium and large mature cattle, the following results were obtained: more heads of small cattle could be held on a set resource base, but the total live weight of a herd of large cattle that could be held on the same resource base was greater. This was mostly due to proportionately lower maintenance energy requirements in the herd of large cattle. In the simulation in this study, maintenance energy requirements for the herd of large cattle was 71.2%, compared to 72.0% for the herd of medium cattle and 73.1% for the herd of small cattle. Income from the herd of small cattle was the lowest, as less kilograms of beef were available to sell. Allocated costs for the herd of small cattle were the highest, due to a large number of expenses being charged per head of cattle. As a result, the herd of large cattle were more economically efficient than their smaller counterparts. Income above allocated costs for the herds of large, medium and small cattle were R1,182,865, R1,085,116 and R946,012 respectively. Larger cattle generally have a lower reproduction rate under similar conditions. No equation exists that directly links size to reproduction rates, especially considering the vast number of variables that influences reproduction rates. However, in the form of scenarios, it could be calculated that, given a reproduction rate of 80% for mature small cattle, when reproduction rates of large cattle were 24.7% lower than that of small cattle and the reproduction rates of medium cattle were 15.4% lower than that of small cattle, the large and medium herds became less profitable than the small herd. Smaller cattle mature faster than larger cattle which provides the opportunity for early breeding. When small cattle were bred early, at 15 months, at a calving rate of only 44.5% it was more profitable than when the same cows were bred at 24 months. When medium cattle were bred at 15 months, a calving rate of 37.0% was needed to be more profitable than when they were bred at 24 months. Even when the herd of small cattle were bred at 15 months with a reproduction rate of 100%, it could still not match the profitability of the herd of large cattle bred at 24 months given the reproduction rates of all other classes of animals were similar. When the herd of medium cattle were bred at 15 months, at a calving rate of 53.7%, it matched the profit of the herd of large cattle that were bred at 24 months, when the reproduction rates of other classes were equal. Scenarios were considered were feed intake was limited. When feed was limited to a specific amount, smaller cattle were more biologically efficient and cattle with potential for small mature sizes would grow to a larger size than cattle with potential for medium and large mature sizes. When feed was limited by a factor of the calculated energy requirements of small, medium and large cattle, large cattle were more effective. This is because large cattle use proportionately less energy for maintenance, which allows more energy to be allocated to growth, lactation and foetal production. When energy was limited to an amount per unit of metabolic weight, small cattle were more efficient than medium and larger cattle in the growth and production phases. Small, medium and large cattle were equally efficient (or inefficient) in the maintenance and lactation phases. Energy requirements of cattle in South Africa are commonly calculated using the Large Stock Unit (LSU). The LSU typically overestimates energy requirements for cattle, except in the lactation phase. When using the LSU to match small, medium or large cattle to a resource base, the LSU overestimates energy requirements of large cattle proportionately more than that of small and medium cattle. This is excluding the lactation phase, where energy requirements for all three sizes are underestimated and that of large cattle underestimated proportionately more. There are more considerations when matching cow size to managerial practices. A smaller body size is a natural adaptation to a semi-arid environment and this adaptation can be expressed in different ways. The number of animals on a resource base has implications on management practices. Having more heads of cattle on a resource base increases genetic variation of the herd, allowing for genetic progress to be made faster than in herd of fewer cattle. / Agriculture and  Animal Health / M.Sc. (Agriculture)

Call number: LD2668 .T4 1986 N44 / Master of Science / Agricultural Economics

Após o ajuste individual das 55 vacas estudadas pelo modelo Gompertz difá- sico com estrutura de erros autorregressiva de ordem 1 (totalizando 7 parâmetros), notou-se que apenas 6 vacas tinham problemas nas estimativas de seus parâmetros (não convergentes ou não signicativos), dessa forma continuou-se o trabalho proposto com 49 animais. Com as estimativas de cada um dos parâmetros (variáveis nessa etapa) foi realizada a análise de componentes principais e observação do gráco biplot, sendo possível a constatação de que 2 dos parâmetros do modelo continham informações ambíguas com pelo menos um dos demais parâmetros e estes foram retirados da análise, restando 5 parâmetros para o estudo. A análise de componentes principais foi realizada novamente apenas com os 5 parâmetros restantes e os três primeiros componentes principais (escolhidos pelo critério da percentagem de variância original explicada) foram utilizados como variáveis em um processo de agrupamento hierárquico. Após a realização da análise de agrupamentos, observou-se que 5 grupos homogêneos de animais foram formados, cada um com caraterísticas distintas. Desta forma, foi possível identicar animais que se destacavam, positiva ou negativamente, no que tange ao seu peso assintótico e taxa de crescimento. / After individual adjustment of the 55 cows studied using the diphasic Gompertz model with autoregressive structure of errors (totalizing 7 parameters), it was noted that only 6 cows had problems on estimates of the parameters (not converged or not signicant), then the proposed work continued with 49 animals. With each of the parameters estimates (variables at this stage) was performed a principal component analysis and observation of the biplot, and it was possible to nd that two of the model parameters contained ambiguous information with at least one of the other parameters, then these 2 parameters were removed from the analysis, leaving 5 parameters for the study. The principal component analysis was performed again with only ve remaining parameters and the rst three principal components (chosen by the criterion of percentage of original explained variance) were used as variables in a process of hierarchical clustering. After performing the cluster analysis, we found that ve homogeneous groups of animals were formed, each with distinct characteristics. Thus, it was possible to identify animals that stood out, positively or negatively, in terms of their asymptotic weight and growth rate.

Inicialmente, foram analisados dados peso-idade do nascimento até 100 meses de idade, de vacas de quatro grupos genéticos (G): Nelore (NEL), ½Canchim + ½Nelore (CN), ½Angus + ½Nelore (AN) e ½Simental + ½Nelore (SN), pertencentes a Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste, São Carlos. Os animais considerados neste estudo nasceram de 1998 a 2001 (Ano), na primavera e outono (EP), e foram criados em sistema de produção intensiva, recebendo três níveis de suplementação pós-desmama (M): 0, 1,5; 3,0 kg/animal/dia de concentrado. O objetivo neste estudo foi comparar diferentes modelos não-lineares para estimar o crescimento, e avaliar a influência de efeitos de ambiente e grupo genético sobre os parâmetros estimados. Os modelos não-lineares: Brody, Gompertz, Logístico, Von Bertalanffy e Richards foram ajustados por mínimos quadrados ordinários e ponderados, considerando a variância normal e ponderada pelo inverso dos pesos em diferentes períodos. Foi usado o procedimento NLIN do SAS. Os modelos Brody e Von Bertalanffy convergiram para todos os G, havendo, entretanto, leve superioridade do Brody ponderado. Na comparação do ajuste dos modelos considerando o uso do inverso da variância os modelos mostraram-se mais adequado. As estimativas dos parâmetros peso assintótico (A) e taxa de maturidade (k) do modelo de Brody ponderado foram analisadas por meio de modelo que, além do efeito médio global, incluiu os efeitos de G, M, EP e as interações entre estes efeitos. Houve diferenças significativas das curvas de crescimento médias para os G. Na análise individual dos parâmetros A e k estimados através do modelo Brody ponderado, verificou-se que A foi influenciado (P<0,05) por G e EP e k foi influenciado (P<0,05) por M, fornecidos aos animais durante quatro meses após desmama. Melhorias no manejo alimentar resultaram em menor variação na forma das curvas de crescimentos e em altas taxas de maturidade. Na segunda parte, verificou-se a qualidade do modelo Brody, ponderado pelo inverso das variâncias dos pesos, quanto ao ajuste peso-idade como também a influência das estimativas do peso à maturidade (A) e da taxa de maturidade (k) sobre características produtivas das vacas NEL, CN, AN e SN. Foram organizados 10 grupos contemporâneos (GC), com concatenação dos efeitos Ano-EP-M para cada G. Utilizando-se um modelo misto com efeitos de G e GC, foi incluído, alternadamente covariáveis linear e quadrática de A e k, na análise das características produtivas: peso à desmama dos bezerros (PD); número (ND8) e kg (KD8) de bezerros desmamados em até 8 anos de permanência da vaca no rebanho; relação PD/peso da vaca ao parto (PD_PVP); relação PD/peso da vaca à desmama do bezerro (PD_PVD); relação PD/unidade metabólica da vaca (PV0,75) à desmama do bezerro (PDW). Houve diferença significativa (P<0,05) da curva de crescimento entre os grupos genéticos (G) e também entre os grupos de contemporâneos (GC) dentro de G. Verificou-se que estas características foram, em geral, influenciadas (P<0,01) tanto pelos efeitos linear e quadrático de A quanto pelos efeitos linear e quadrático de k. / Initially, were analyzed weight-age data from birth to 100 months of age from cows of four genetic groups (G): Nellore (NEL), ½Nellore + ½Canchim (CN), ½Angus +½Nellore (AN) and ½Simmental + ½Nellore (SN), of a experiment carried out at Embrapa Southeast Cattle Research Center, State of São Paulo, Brazil. The animals considered in this study were born from 1998 to 2001 (Year) in spring and fall (EP), and were managed in intensive production system and submitted to three of levels of supplementation post-weaning (M): 0, 1.5 and 3.0 kg/animal/day of concentrate. The objective of this study was to compare different nonlinear models to fitted growth curves, of beef cattle females, and to evaluate of environmental and genetic group effects on the estimated parameters. The nonlinear models: Brody, Gompertz, Logistic, Von Bertalanffy and Richards were fitted by ordinary least squares and weighted by the inverse of the variances of the weights in different periods. It was used the NLIN procedure of SAS. The parameters asymptotic weight (A) and maturing rate (k) obtained from model of Brody were analyzed by a mixed linear model that, besides the overall mean effect, included the effects of G, M, EP, and the interactions among these effects. The Brody and Von Bertalanffy models converged for all genetic groups, although slight superiority of the weighted Brody. Comparing the goodness of fit of these models, the use of the inverse of variances showed more efficient than the adjust of the models considering normal variances. Individual analysis of A and k estimated the model weighted Brody, the A parameter was influenced (P <0.05) by genetic group and season of birth and k was influenced (P <0 05) for levels of supplementation to the animals. Improvements in feeding supplementation resulted in less variation in the shape of growth curves and rates of maturity. In the second part of the work, it was evaluated the goodness of the Brody model, weighted by the inverse variance weights, in the adjust of weight-age data, and also analyzed the influence of the maturity weight (A) and maturing rate (k) estimates for traits cows productivity. Were organized 10 contemporary groups (CG) with concatenation of effects Year- EP-M for each G. Considering a mixed model with effects of G and CG (10 contemporaneous groups organized by concatenation Year-EP-M effects), linear and quadratic covariate effects of A and k, were added, alternately, for the analysis of the following traits: weaning weight of calve (WW), number (NW8) and kg (KW8) of calves weaned over 8 years of the cow in the herd; WW/weight of the cow at calving (WW_WC); WW/cow weight at weaning of calf (WW_WWC); and WW/metabolic unit of the cow (PV0,75) at weaning of the calf (MW). There was significant difference (P<0.05) of the growth curve among the genetic groups and also among contemporary groups within G. It was found that the production traits were, in general, influenced (P<0.01) by both linear and quadratic effects of A and k.

Graduation date: 2006 / Best scan available. Ink on original is smeared.

No description available.

This study attempts to identify factors responsible for determining differences in the productivity of cattle managed by communal and private livestock farmers in the southern region of Botswana during 1999/2000. It is hypothesised that herd productivity and investment in southern Botswana are higher on private ranches than on open access communal grazing land. This study is important because livestock, especially cattle, contribute significantly to the livelihood of farmers in Botswana. Cattle are a major source of meat, milk and draught power, and provide a store of wealth that protects against inflation and which can easily be converted into cash. Cattle production is also an important source of employment in the rural economy of Botswana. Furthermore, the export of beef is a major source of foreign exchange earnings, and cattle account for 80 percent of agriculture's contribution to Botswana's gross domestic product. A stratified random sample survey of communal and private livestock farmers was conducted in the southern region of Botswana from August 1999 to May 2000 with the assistance of four enumerators. The sample survey data were used to compute descriptive statistics and to estimate the parameters of a block recursive regression model. The model postulated relationships between agricultural credit, investment in fixed improvement, investment in operating inputs and herd productivity. Some of the equations are estimated with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and some with Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) to account for likely correlation between endogenous explanatory variables and the error term. Descriptive statistics show that levels of investment and herd productivity are higher on private farms than on open-access communal grazing. Private farmers are also better educated, more liquid, and have larger herd sizes, but do not differ from their communal counterparts in terms of age, gender, race or household size. The regression results show that (a) respondents with secure tenure and larger herds use more agricultural credit than those who rely on open access communal grazing land to raise cattle; (b) secure land tenure, higher levels of liquidity and use of long-term credit promote investment in fixed improvements to land; (c) liquidity from short-term credit and wage remittances supports expenditure on operating inputs; and (d) herd productivity increases with greater investment in fixed improvement and operating inputs. Herd productivity is therefore positively (but indirectly) influenced by secure land tenure. It can therefore be inferred that government should (a) uphold private property rights to land where they already exists; (b) privatise open access grazing to individual owner operators where this is politically, socially, and economically feasible; and (c) where privatisation to individuals is not feasible, government should encourage users to convert the grazing into common property by subsidising the costs of defining user groups and the boundaries of their resources, and enforcing rules limiting individual use of common property. This first-step in a gradual shift towards more secure tenure should be followed by the conversion of user groups to non-user groups organized along the lines of investor-owned firms where members exchange use rights for benefit and voting rights in a joint venture managed by an expert. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2006.

The complex co-evolutionary systems approach (CCeSA) provides a well-suited framework for analysing agricultural systems, serving as a bridge between biophysical and socioeconomic sciences, allowing for the explanation of phenomena, and for the use of metaphors for thinking and action. By studying agricultural systems as self-generated, hierarchical, complex co-evolutionary farming systems (CCeFSs), one can investigate the interconnections between the elements that constitute CCeFSs, along with the relationships between CCeFSs and other systems, as a fundamental step to understanding sustainability as an emergent property of the system. CCeFSs are defined as human activity systems emerging from the purposes, gestalt, mental models, history and weltanschauung of the farm manager, and from his dynamic co-evolution with the environment while managing the resources at his hand to achieve his own multiple, conflicting, dynamic, semi-structured and constrained purposes. A sustainable CCeFS is described as one that exhibits both enough fitness to achieve its multiple, dynamic, constrained, semi-structured, and often incommensurable and conflicting purposes while performing above threshold values for failure, and enough flexibility to dynamically co-evolve with its changing biophysical and socioeconomic environment for a given future period. Fitness and flexibility are essential features of sustainable CCeFSs because they describe the systems' dynamic capacity to explore and exploit its dynamic phase space while co-evolving with it. This implies that a sustainable CCeFS is conceived as a set of dynamic, co-evolutionary processes, contrasting with the standard view of sustainability as an equilibrium or steady state. Achieving sustainable CCeFSs is a semi-structured, constrained, multi-objective, and dynamic optimisation management problem with an intractable search phase space, that can be solved within the CCeSA with the help of a multi-objective co-evolutionary optimisation tool. Carnico-ICSPEA2, a Co-Evolutionary Navigator (CoEvoNav) used as a CCeSA's tool for harnessing the complexity of the CCeFS of interest and its environment towards sustainability, is introduced. The software was designed by its end-user - the farm manager and author of this thesis - as an aid for the analysis and optimisation of the "San Francisco" ranch, a beef cattle enterprise running on temperate pastures and fodder crops in the central plateau of Mexico. By combining a non-linear simulator and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm with a deterministic and stochastic framework, the CoEvoNav imitates the co-evolutionary pattern of the CCeFS of interest. As such, the software was used by the farm manager to "navigate" through his CCeFS's co-evolutionary phase space towards achieving sustainability at farm level. The ultimate goal was to enhance the farm manager's decision-making process and co-evolutionary skills, through an increased understanding of his system, the co-evolutionary process between his mental models, the CCeFS, and the CoEvoNav, and the continuous discovery of new, improved sets of heuristics. An overview of the methodological, theoretical and philosophical framework of the thesis is introduced. Also, a survey of the Mexican economy, its agricultural sector, and a statistical review of the Mexican beef industry are presented. Concepts such as modern agriculture, the reductionist approach to agricultural research, models, the system's environment, sustainability, conventional and sustainable agriculture, complexity, evolution, simulators, and multi-objective optimization tools are extensively reviewed. Issues concerning the impossibility of predicting the long-term, detailed future behaviour of CCeFSs, along with the use of simulators as decision support tools in the quest for sustainable CCeFSs, are discussed. The rationale behind the simulator used for this study, along with that of the multi-objective evolutionary tools used as the makeup of Carnico-ICSPEA2, are explained. A description of the "San Francisco" ranch, its key on-farm sustainability indicators in the form of objective functions, constraints, and decision variables, and the semi-structured, multi-objective, dynamic, constrained management problem posed by the farm manager's planned introduction of a herd of bulls for fattening as a way to increase the fitness of his CCeFS via a better management of the system's feed surpluses and the acquisition of a new pick-up truck are described as a case study. The tested scenario and the experimental design for the simulations are presented as well. Results from using the CoEvoNav as the farm manager's extended phenotype to solve his multi-objective optimisation problem are described, along with the implications for the management and sustainability of the CCeFS. Finally, the approach and tools developed are evaluated, and the progress made in relation to methodological, theoretical, philosophical and conceptual notions is reviewed along with some future topics for research.