Cette thèse appartient au domaine de la théorie de la décision en situation d'incertitude. Elle vise à comprendre, décrire, et représenter les choix individuels dans différents contextes de décision. Notre travail se concentre sur le fait que le comportement économique est souvent influencé par la structure et le déroulement de la résolution de l'incertitude. Dans une première expérience nous avons confronté nos sujets à différents types d'incertitude – à savoir du risque (probabilités connues), de l'incertain (probabilités inconnues), du risque composé et de l'incertain composé – en utilisant des mécanismes aléatoires particuliers. Le chapitre 1 analyse l'hétérogénéité des attitudes individuelles face à l'ambiguïté, au risque composé et à l'incertain composé alors que dans le chapitre 2, le modèle d'espérance d'utilité à dépendance du rang est utilisé comme outil de mesure afin d'étudier en détails ces attitudes au niveau individuel. Le chapitre 3 confronte à l'expérience l'interprétation de l'ambiguïté en terme de croyances de second ordre et propose une méthode d'élicitation de la fonction qui caractérise l'attitude face à l'ambiguïté dans les modèles « récursifs » de décision face à l'incertain. La seconde partie de la thèse s'intéresse aux comportements de décision individuelle dans un contexte dynamique et est composée de deux études expérimentales indépendantes. Néanmoins, elles reposent toutes deux sur la décomposition de l'axiome d'indépendance en trois axiomes dynamiques: conséquentialisme, cohérence dynamique et réduction des loteries composées. Le chapitre 4 rapporte les résultats d'une expérience de décision individuelle sur les facteurs de violations de chacun de ces axiomes. Le chapitre 5 présente une catégorisation conceptuelle des comportements individuels dans des problèmes de décision séquentiels face au risque. Le cas des agents ne se conformant pas à l'axiome d'indépendance y est étudié de façon systématique et les résultats d'une expérience spécialement conçue pour tester cette catégorisation sont présentés. / This thesis belongs to the domain of decision theory under uncertainty and aims to understand, describe and represent individual choices in various decision contexts. Our work focuses on the fact that economic behavior is often influenced by the structure and the timing of resolution of uncertainty. In a first experimental part, we confronted subjects with different types of uncertainty, namely risk (known probabilities), uncertainty (unknown probabilities), compound risk and compound uncertainty, which were generated using special random devices. In chapter 1 we analyze the heterogeneity of attitudes towards ambiguity, compound risk and compound uncertainty whereas in chapter 2, we use rank dependent expected utility as a measuring tool in order to individually investigate these attitudes. Chapter 3 confronts the interpretation of ambiguity in term of second order beliefs with the experimental data and proposes a method for eliciting the function that encapsulates attitudes toward ambiguity in the “recursive” or multistage models of decision under uncertainty. The second part of the thesis deals with individual decision making under risk in a dynamic context and is composed of two independent experimental studies. Both of them rely on the decomposition of the independence axiom into three dynamic axioms: consequentialism, dynamic consistency and reduction of compound lotteries. Chapter 4 reports experimental data about violations of each of the three axioms. Chapter 5 presents a conceptual categorization of individual behavior in sequential decision problems under risk, especially those which do not conform to the independence axiom. We propose an experiment specially designed to test the predictions of this categorization.

One policy reaction of the Federal Reserve to the 2008 financial crisis was the extension of currency swap lines to various foreign central banks; this constituted the global transfer of billions of US dollars of wealth and exhibited the role of the US as a global lender of last resorts. Some have attempted to explain the supply of these lines as a function of risk mitigation for domestic US banks with foreign holdings, but no one has yet investigated the social dynamics of this phenomenon. In recognizing that the global demand for emergency liquidity was greater than the Federal Reserve’s supply, this paper investigates how the similarity of foreign central banks affected the selection of which banks would receive liquidity extensions. I calculate similarity scores to the US Federal Reserve for foreign banks which applied for liquidity extensions during the crisis. These scores measure the textual similarity of foreign central bankers’ speeches to those of the Fed, the institutional design similarity to that of the Fed, and the similarity of foreign central banks’ governors’ educational and professional backgrounds to those of the 2008 Federal Open Markets Commission members. I find that the similarity of foreign central banks to the US with regard to these three criteria offers a significantly stronger and statistically more robust answer to the question of what drove this decision process, and offer implications for international regulatory mechanisms to ameliorate this tendency toward social homophily.

Numerous studies have shown that consumers react imperfectly to changes in health insurance coverage. To justify consumer valuation in health insurance decision-making, I use Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data and conduct three studies to examine consumer’s private information in health insurance decision-making under a conceptual framework of consumer perception, which potentially is informative about Affordable Care Act (ACA) Health Insurance Marketplace consumer behavior. In the first study, I examine the joint role of individual preferences and health risk in two types of insurance decision-making: the probability of being insured and the probability of employment-based insurance if insured. Using logistic regression, I find that the healthier and wealthier consumers tend to have more positive attitudes towards health insurance and thus are more likely to be insured. The effects of health risk measures vary largely in insurance decisions conditional on different preference measures and preference levels. In the second study, I investigate insurance coverage bundle choices with multi-dimensional private information in an artificially created market setting. I adapt the approach developed by Lokshin and Ravallion (2005) and conduct logistic regression modeling to estimate the reduced forms for coverage bundle choice and consumer attitude respectively. Predicted linear indices for consumer attitude and coverage bundle choices are calculated separately, then their correlation coefficients are compared. In this study I find that consumer attitude plays a dominating role in health insurance decision-making, suggesting that risk preferences may internalize health risks and influence insurance purchasing decisions. To further explore consumer perceptions within an individual’s personal system of decision rules, in the third study, I construct coverage bundle choices in an order from the least complete to the most complete, and examine the effect of consumer perceived plan quality to coverage bundle choice decisions. I use the generalized ordered logit method and a Bayesian learning process for the analysis. I find that coverage bundle choice decisions are value-based, for which perceived plan quality plays a significant and persistent role. The study results also have important policy implications to enhancing consumer engagement and optimizing health insurance management to provide high quality care to health insurance beneficiaries.

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Lo studio presenta un analisi dettagliata sul comportamento dei giocatori d'azzardo. I dati sono stati raccolti tramite un esperimento condotto “sul campo” che ha osservato i giocatori durante la loro attività di gioco in un agenzia di scommesse. L'esperimento ha permesso di ottenere il grado di severità del disordine da gioco d’azzardo e i principali tratti comportamentali dei partecipanti. La misurazione di tali tratti ha permesso di comprendere quali tra questi, meglio prediceva l’insorgere del disordine da gioco d’azzardo. La seconda parte del lavoro è stata rivolta a studiare la possibile relazione causale tra attività di gioco e una possibile modifica dei tratti comportamentali. Inoltre la diretta osservazione dei giocatori durante l’attività di gioco ha permesso di avere una traccia dettagliata del loro comportamento di gioco. I risultati sottolineano importanti differenze tra i comportamenti dei giocatori osservati usando procedure sperimentali e i comportamenti osservati durante l’attività di gioco. Nel primo caso non è stato rilevato nessun impatto significativo sulle preferenze individuali dovuto all’attività di gioco. Nel secondo caso, invece, si trova conferma del fenomeno conosciuto come “diminishing sensitivity”. In altre parole, all’aumentare delle perdite subite durante l’attività di gioco aumenta la propensione al rischio dei giocatori. / The thesis presents a lab-in-the-field experiment collecting data on gamblers’ behaviour. The study provides an estimate of the incidence of Problematic Gambling (PG) among the usual customers of a large betting agency in Milan. We elicit in an incentivized manner a large battery of behavioural traits in order to investigate which of them are mostly characterizing PG. Moreover, we investigate a causal relationship between gambling activity and behavioural traits. We also keep detailed track of the gambling activity during the day of the interview to see which are the more interest patterns of the gambling activity. The results underline important differences between real and experimental observation. When we use experimental task to investigate a possible variation in risk preferences due to gambling activity we do not observe any significant impact on risk preferences. When we inspect risk preferences using data coming from the real gambling activity we find evidence of the diminishing sensitivity phenomenon. The more losses they have collected during gambling, the more is the risk that gamblers are likely to take in the subsequent bets. These results indicate that gamblers are not risk-seekers in general, but their risk propensity seems to rise when they are involved in gambling.

Cette thèse aborde le thème de la rationalité limitée à travers quatre chapitres, associant modèles théoriques, expériences en laboratoire et analyses statistiques et économétriques. Dans les deux premiers chapitres, nous testons la validité de nouveaux modèles en économie qui utilisent le formalisme mathématique de la mécanique quantique pour rendre compte de biais cognitifs. Au sein du chapitre 1, nous considérons des modèles expliquant l'effet d'ordre et en dérivons de nouvelles prédictions expérimentales. Dans le chapitre 2, nous proposons une expérience originale pour tester une large gamme de modèles quantiques qui rendent compte de l'erreur de conjonction. Les deux groupes de modèles échouent à nos tests empiriques. Nous discutons alors de possibles pistes d'améliorations de ces modèles. Le chapitre 3 explore la façon dont les individus traitent des informations économiques successives, complexes et abondantes. Nos résultats expérimentaux montrent l'inaptitude des sujets à combiner de telles informations, ce qui confirme la théorie de la trace floue. Enfin, le chapitre 4 relève de la finance expérimentale. Il étudie comment l'achat sur marge (respectivement la vente à découvert) augmente (diminue) le niveau des prix, la volatilité, l'hétérogénéité des marchés et les anticipations de prix des traders ainsi que la façon dont il modifie les stratégies de trading. Nos résultats mettent en évidence les nettes conséquences de chacune de ces techniques prises séparément, et identifient des phénomènes inattendus lorsqu'elles sont combinées. Nos analyses ouvrent la voie à une meilleure prise en compte de ces interactions déstabilisatrices par les autorités de régulation. / This thesis studies bounded rationality through four chapters, combining theoretical models, laboratory experiments and statistical and econometric analyzes. In the first two chapters, we test the validity of new models in economics which rely on the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to account for cognitive biases. In chapter 1, we consider models explaining the order effect and we derive new experimental predictions. In chapter 2, we propose an original experiment to test a wide range of quantum models that account for the conjunction fallacy. Both groups of models fail in our empirical tests and we then discuss possible ways to improve these models. The third chapter explores how individuals deal with successive, complex and abundant economic information. Our experimental results show the subjects' inability to combine such information, which confirms the fuzzy trace theory. Finally, the fourth chapter deals with experimental finance. It studies how margin buying (respectively short selling) increases (decreases) price levels, volatility, heterogeneity of markets, and traders' price expectations, as well as how it changes trading strategies. Our results highlight the clear consequences of each of these techniques used alone, and point to unexpected phenomena when both are combined. Regulatory authorities could take advantage of our analyzes to reduce the destabilization introduced by these techniques.

Careless Society: Drivers of (Un)Secure Passwords Thesis abstract Vojtěch Nedvěd May 2, 2021 Vulnerabilities related to poor cybersecurity are a dangerous global economic issue. This thesis aims to explain two examples of poor password management. First, why users use similar password and username and second, why they reuse their passwords, as the main drivers of this behaviour are unknown. We examined the effects of selected macroeconomic variables, gender, password length and password complexity. Additionally, this thesis suggest how to estimate sentiment in passwords using models build on Twitter posts. The results are verified on large password data, including password leaks from recent years. There are four main findings. First, a higher cybersecurity index and diversity of a password seem to be related to the lower similarity between a username and a password. Second, it seems that there are structural differences between countries and languages. Third, the sentiment seems to be a significant determinant too. Fourth, password reuse seems to be positively affected by the cybersecurity level. The thesis contributes to the study of password management. It proposes how to model the relationship, derive the data, split the passwords into words, model the sentiment of passwords, what variables might be...

Indoor tanning remains a popular activity in Western cultures despite a growing body of literature suggesting its link to skin cancer and melanoma. Advances in indoor tanning research have illuminated problematic patterns of its use. With problems such as difficulty quitting, devoting resources toward its use at the expense of healthy activities, and excessive motivation and urges to tan, symptoms of excessive indoor tanning appear consistent with behavioral addiction. The present study bridges the gap between clinical approaches to understanding indoor tanning problems and behavioral economic considerations of unhealthy habits and addiction. Eighty undergraduate females completed both the Behavioral Addiction Indoor Tanning Screener and the Tanning Purchase Task. Results suggest that behavioral economic demand for tanning significantly differs between risk classification groups, providing divergent validity to the Behavioral Addiction Indoor Tanning Screener and offering additional evidence of the sensitivity of the Tanning Purchase Task to differentiating groups according to tanning profiles.

Thesis advisor: Uzi Segal / This collection of papers examines applications of microeconomic theory to practical problems. More specifically, I identify frictions between theoretical results and agent behavior. I seek to resolve these tensions by either proposing mechanisms to more closely capture the theoretical environment of interest or extending the model to more closely approximate the world as individuals perceive it. In the first chapter, "Compensation without Distortion,'' I propose a new mechanism for compensating subjects in preference elicitation experiments. The motivation for this tool is the theoretical problem of incentive compatibility in decision experiments. A hallmark of experimental economics is the connection between a subject's payment with their actions or decisions, however previous literature has highlighted shortcomings in this link between compensation and methods currently used to elicit beliefs. Specifically, compensating individuals based on choices they make increases reliability, however these payments can themselves distort subjects' preferences, limiting the resulting data's usefulness. I reexamine the source of the underlying theoretical tension, and propose using a stochastic termination mechanism called the "random stopping procedure'' (RSP). I show that the RSP is theoretically able to structurally avoid preference distortions induced by the current state of the art protocols. Changing the underlying context subjects answer questions—by resolving payoff uncertainty immediately after every decision is made—the assumed impossibility of asking multiple questions without creating preference distortions is theoretically resolved. To test this prediction, I conduct an experiment explicitly designed to test the accuracy of data gathered by the RSP against the current best practice for measuring subject preferences. Results show that RSP-elicited preferences more closely match a control group's responses than the alternative. In the second chapter, "School Choice and Class Size Externalities,'' I revisit the many-to-one matching problem of school choice. I focus on the importance of problem definition, and argue that the "standard'' school choice model is insufficiently sensitive to relevant characteristics of student preferences. Motivated by the observation that students care about both the school they attend, and how over- or under-crowded the school is, I extend the problem definition to allow students to report preferences over both schools and cohort sizes. (Cohort size is intended as a generalization of school crowding, relative resources, or other similar school characteristics.) I show that, if students do have preferences over schools and cohort sizes, current mechanisms lose many of their advantageous properties, and are no longer stable, fair, nor non-wasteful. Moreover, I show that current mechanisms no longer necessarily incentivize students to truthfully report their preferences over school orderings. Motivated by the observation that students care about both the school they attend, and how over- or under-crowded the school is, in "School Choice and Class Size Externalities'' I extend the standard school choice problem to incorporate both of these elements. I show that, if students do have preferences over schools and cohort sizes, current mechanisms are no longer stable, fair, nor non-wasteful. In response, I construct an alternative matching mechanism, called the deferred acceptance with voluntary withdrawals (DAwVW) mechanism, which improves on the underlying (unobserved) manipulability of "standard" mechanisms. The DAwVW mechanism is deterministic and terminates, more closely satisfies core desirable matching properties, and can yield substantial efficiency gains compared to mechanisms that do not consider class size. In the third chapter, I provide an overview of the history of decision experiments in economics, describe several of the underlying tensions that motivate my other projects, and identify alternative potential solutions that have been proposed by others to these problems. In this project, I add context to the larger field of experimental economics in which my research is situated. In addition to the mechanisms discussed by prior literature reviews, I incorporate and discuss recently developed payment and elicitation methods, and identify these new approaches' advantages and drawbacks. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2022. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

Economists are still searching for methods to reduce/eliminate Hypothetical Bias (HB). Different methods have been previously applied some with success and others without. In this study, we aimed to further test the cognitive dissonance approach (CD) through a learning design method to estimate the WTP for five beef attributes: Non-quality, Kentucky Proud, Appalachian, Grass Fed and a mix of 25% Non-quality and 75% Kentucky Proud, using a one and one half bounded model. To test the CD, 881 participants from the University of Kentucky, were randomly assigned to a real/hypothetical market for a battery recycling project at first and afterwards to a hypothetical market for beef. For the battery recycling, participants were asked to donate $1, $2 or $3. For the beef market, participants were randomly assigned to a $4 or $6 for the non-quality attribute patty. Participants assigned to a $4 were afterwards randomly assigned to a $4.5, $5, $5.5 or $6 and the ones assigned to a $6 were afterwards assigned to a $6.5, $7, $7.5 and $8 for the other attribute patties. From this study, we found that the learning design was effective in reducing the cognitive dissonance or conflicts between what consumers say and their actions.