Submitted by Mariana Dornelles Vargas (marianadv) on 2015-03-19T15:00:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 estimativas_volume.pdf: 602839 bytes, checksum: f10648288eb6067186326c409eb15d41 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-19T15:00:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 estimativas_volume.pdf: 602839 bytes, checksum: f10648288eb6067186326c409eb15d41 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-09-24 / Nenhuma / O propósito central deste trabalho é estimar os fluxos de comércio internacional bilateral entre os países BRICs - Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China - em períodos futuros. Para estas estimações, são consideradas as previsões realizadas pela consultoria econômica Goldman Sachs (2001) que, além de detalhar valores estimados para o PIB e a renda per capita dos BRICs até o ano de 2050, apontam que estes quatro países estarão entre as seis maiores economias do planeta em torno de 2040. O estudo utiliza um modelo gravitacional baseado numa amostra de 57 países para o período 2000 - 2007, a fim de obter-se uma equação normal para explicar o comércio internacional no mundo atual. A aplicação de dois métodos de estimação - MQO e Tobit - gerou uma coleção de possíveis coeficientes, que foram testados técnica e qualitativamente, para escolher-se as duas equações mais adequadas para as previsões dos fluxos bilaterais de comércio dos BRICs. Finalmente, os coeficientes destas equações foram arranjados para, combinados a dados reais e às estimações de PIB e renda per capita futuros construídos pela Goldman Sachs, prever intervalos de confiança para o tamanho dos fluxos bilaterais de importação entre os BRICs num cenário de curto (2010), médio (2020) e longo prazo (2030). O modelo gravitacional aqui usado é um instrumento de forecasting, validando esta fronteira de utilização para a equação gravitacional de comércio. Seus resultados mostram que o volume de comércio 'intra-BRICs' crescerá mais intensamente do que o próprio PIB destes países, podendo se multiplicar 10 vezes entre 2010 e 2020, e 50 vezes entre 2010 e 2030, gerando uma maior interdependência que poderá estimular as relações articuladas entre estas economias para garantir a sustentabilidade de seu crescimento econômico. / The main purpose of this research is to estimate international trade flows for all the existent bilateral relations between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the future time. This process starts by considering the estimations made by the investment bank Goldman Sachs (2001), which released a study that not only estimated amounts for the GDP and GDP per capita for the BRICs until the year 2050, but also revealed that these countries will position themselves, no exception, between the six biggest economies of the world by around the year 2040. This study adopts a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in the world in current days. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of possible parameters was generated, which were all tested on a technical and on a qualitative basis, with the aim to choose the two most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). In this way, the gravity model is here a pure forecasting model, validating this bound of utilization for the instrument. The results are showing that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more intense than the GDP of these countries itself, meaning an unprecedented internationalization process featured by the construction of a web of high interdependence between these economies. Trade between the BRICs could rise 10 times within 2010 and 2020, and 50 times within 2010 and 2050. International trade among the BRICs will definitely be necessary for them to sustain economic growth.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-03-21T13:26:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Fabio Nascimento.pdf: 1223575 bytes, checksum: e029bdb61fc32333b6784283ac687984 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-21T13:26:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fabio Nascimento.pdf: 1223575 bytes, checksum: e029bdb61fc32333b6784283ac687984 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-30 / Nenhuma / O propósito central deste estudo é verificar se houve reprimarização da pauta exportadora brasileira para os países componentes dos BRICS no período de 2000 a 2011. Para isto são utilizados dados de comércio internacional relacionados às pautas exportadoras dos países BRICS, agrupados por SH6, fornecidos pela base de dados Aliceweb, que totalizam 1547 produtos agrupados de acordo com sua intensidade tecnológica em: produtos primários, intensivos em recursos naturais, intensivos em trabalho, intensivos em economias de escala, fornecedores especializados e intensivos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento. É realizada também a análise dos dados das pautas exportadoras dos países BRICS com direção ao BRICS afim verificar se a pauta exportadora brasileira segue a tendência do agrupamento. São estudados ainda temas como a evolução dos BRICS sob a ótica da agência internacional Goldman Sachs e como se deu sua formação, além de, observar-se alguns estudos que tratam dos temas pertinentes ao trabalho como as teorias sobre intensidade tecnológica, reprimarização e seus reflexos na economia e desenvolvimento de uma nação. Todos os resultados apontam que houve reprimarização da pauta exportadora brasileira no período em questão, assim como em todos os países BRICS, com exceção a China. / The central purpose of this study is verify if had reprimarization of Brazilian export agenda to componentes of BRICS countries in the period of 2000 to 2011. Are used for this international trade data relating the export agendas of BRICS countries, grouped by SH6, provided by the Aliceweb database, totaling 1547 products grouped according to their technological intensity in: primary products, natural resources intensity, work intensity, economy scale intensity, suppliers specialized and research and development intensity. Is also carried out the analysis of export agenda data of BRICS countries with direction to BRICS in order to verify if the Brazilian export agenda follow the tendency of the grouping. Are still studied topics such as the evolution of BRICS over the optic of international agency Goldman Sachs and how was its formation, in addition to, observed some studies dealing with relevant issues to the work as theories of technological intensity, reprimarization and its reflexes on the economy and development of a nation. All the results show that was reprimarization of Brazilian export agenda in the period concerned, as well as all BRICS countries, with exception China.

Submitted by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2017-09-04T17:21:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 LeilianeRodriguesCorreaSilvaParcialDissertacao2015.pdf: 1992129 bytes, checksum: 83e8c49727570242937f521aa1ad6017 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2017-09-04T17:21:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 LeilianeRodriguesCorreaSilvaParcialDissertacao2015.pdf: 1992129 bytes, checksum: 83e8c49727570242937f521aa1ad6017 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-04T17:21:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 LeilianeRodriguesCorreaSilvaParcialDissertacao2015.pdf: 1992129 bytes, checksum: 83e8c49727570242937f521aa1ad6017 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-18 / This work aims to analyze the existence of legal and economic world orders, through the historical perspective of the development of international law, based on the so-called Westphalian order for examining the Bretton Woods system. Furthermore aims to verify a possible transformation in these coordination systems coming from its incompleteness, especially with regard to the economic treatment and representation of developing countries, especially emerging denominated. Here represented by BRICS, which, given the scenario exposed by the twenty-first century global involvement of states, integration and interdependence in international relations, represent a new way of interaction between the emerging countries and promoting inter-regional multilateralism. Establishment of breaking paradigms and creation of international organizations through effective implementation of practice of a so-called "right of the domes." The research seeks to demonstrate the transformation of the international legal system in their practices, especially the customary review of the creation of an international paradigm in Post Modern right by the right of the domes. / A presente obra tem por finalidade analisar a exist??ncia de ordens mundiais jur??dica e econ??mica, por interm??dio da perspectiva hist??rica do desenvolvimento do direito internacional, fundamentado na chamada ordem de Vestf??lia pela an??lise do sistema de Bretton Woods. Ademais busca verificar uma poss??vel transforma????o nestes sistemas de coordena????o oriunda de sua incompletude, especialmente no tocante ao tratamento econ??mico e na representatividade dos pa??ses em desenvolvimento, especialmente os denominados emergentes. Aqui representados pelo BRICS, os quais, diante do cen??rio exposto pelo s??culo XXI de envolvimento global dos estados, integra????o e interdepend??ncia nas rela????es internacionais, representam uma nova forma de intera????o entre os pa??ses emergentes e de fomento ao multilateralismo inter-regional. Rompendo paradigmas de estabelecimento e cria????o de organiza????es internacionais mediante a efetiva????o de pr??tica de um denominado "direito das c??pulas". A pesquisa busca demonstrar a transforma????o do sistema jur??dico internacional em suas pr??ticas, especialmente a revis??o consuetudin??ria do paradigma de cria????o de uma organiza????o internacional no direito P??s Moderno por meio do direito das c??pulas.

Magister Commercii - MCom / A possible effect of quantitative easing (QE) undertaken by the United States of America (USA) Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) may have been an increase in capital flowing into emerging market economies (EMEs). The 2008 global financial crisis created an environment in which traditional monetary policies – cutting policy rates – became ineffective in stimulating growth. Faced with this policy environment, several high-income countries including the USA resorted to unconventional monetary policies notably QE, to grow their economies. While QE was effective in lowering interest rates in high-income countries, some argued that investors switched to higher yielding assets, mostly EME assets. Therefore, QE is perceived to have increased capital flows into EMEs. Using a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects this mini-thesis investigates empirically whether QE worked through unobservable channels to increase gross private capital inflows to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) in the period 2000-2015. The study finds evidence in support of the view that QE increased capital inflows to EMEs. The results reveal that gross private capital inflows to the BRICS increased during the QE intervention period and that the increase was higher in the first period of QE than in subsequent QE periods. The empirical results also reveal differences in the way types of capital flows responded to QE; portfolio flows, and in particular equity flows were the most responsive to QE.

Submitted by Rosina Valeria Lanzellotti Mattiussi Teixeira (rosina.teixeira@unisantos.br) on 2016-05-18T19:01:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Carlos Eduardo dos Santos Farias.pdf: 763061 bytes, checksum: 4523c6ecf29b1ccf0faeb9b1d0bf2705 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-18T19:01:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carlos Eduardo dos Santos Farias.pdf: 763061 bytes, checksum: 4523c6ecf29b1ccf0faeb9b1d0bf2705 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-10-28 / This research paper proposes an analysis of the emergence of informal arrangements as a new form of multilateralism, pointing out the historical evolution of international organizations as institutions representing multilateralism in practice. The crisis in classical multilateralism is unequivocal, for the world has been conferring a new shape to international relationships among its actors: less bureaucratic, less institutionalized, more efficient and effective. Informal arrangements bring in themselves cooperation as element of order, leaving the idea of ¿power for power¿ behind, in which the rich exploited the poor in compliance with military forces. BRICS is an example of a successful informal arrangement, that puts together such different countries with an only purpose in mind: development of participants based on the idea of cooperation. Times have changed, and international relationships must now adapt to this new world order. / O presente trabalho propõe a análise do surgimento dos arranjos informais como uma nova forma de multilateralismo, destacando a evolução histórica das organizações internacionais, como instituições que representam o multilateralismo na prática. A crise do multilateralismo clássico é evidente, pois o mundo está formatando uma nova roupagem para as relações internacionais de seus atores, menos burocrática, menos institucionalizada, mais eficiente e eficaz. Os arranjos informais trazem consigo a cooperação como elemento de ordem, deixando para traz a ideia do poder pelo poder, onde os ricos exploravam os pobres, através da imposição da força militar. O BRICS é o exemplo de arranjo informal que vem dando certo, e que fez juntar países tão diferentes, em prol de um único propósito, o desenvolvimento de seus integrantes, baseado na ideia de cooperação. Os tempos mudaram e as relações internacionais estão sendo obrigadas a se moldarem a esta nova ordem mundial.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between gold and stock returns with evidence from BRIC countries during 2001-2010. The importance of this topic is caused by instability in the world economy and stock markets, and due to this instability, there is a growing interest in gold from investors and the current bull market of gold. Considering that gold is independent from most of the macroeconomic factors we believe that it therefore should be independent from or low correlated with stock, which makes this metal useful for portfolio diversification. Based on previous studies, we also believe that gold can be used to predict, to some degree, the stock market trend. The force behind such stable price growth of gold is sustained by demand from emerging countries such as BRICs. Moreover, there is lack of research on this topic from the perspective of different economic sectors. These facts determined the choice of countries along with their economic sectors. The research was designed in the frame of quantitative method. The types of relationship that were investigated are correlation and spillover effects. In order to examine these relationships we have utilized secondary data, which are gold prices and stock indices turned into returns. The Pearson’s correlation and diagonal BEKK GARCH were applied to test the correlation and spillover effects between returns of gold and stock, respectively. The results of the study showed that gold and stock returns are correlated, however to a low degree. Additionally, correlation varies across countries and their economic sectors over time, which may influence investors’ decision in choice of allocation of investments. The other findings showed the existence of mean spillover effects, both unidirectional and bidirectional, and volatility spillover effects between gold and stock returns. The principal conclusions were that gold is an efficient portfolio diversifier, which also plays a role of a hedge and a safe haven. Similarly, taking into account an existence of spillover effects, gold can be helpful in terms of stock prediction and vice versa. Further, another important finding was that not all of the economic sectors had mean spillover with gold, but in terms of volatility, every sector had a certain relationship with gold.

Various hazardous chemical substances are used daily as part of manufacturing and processing. Exposure to these hazardous chemical substances (HCSs) can cause adverse health effects in the exposed workers. Occupational exposure limits (OELs) are used to control exposure to these HCSs and thereby protect workers from the adverse effects that exposure may induce. The aim of this study was to compare South African list of OELs as contained in the Hazardous Chemical Substance Regulations (HCSR) to several developed and developing countries based on two aspects: (1) the number of substances that are selected and regulated by the lists of each country (2) and the overall level of the OELs set by the different countries and jurisdictions. Due to the nature and the large amount of data the study is divided into two parts. The first part is a comparison of South African OELs with nine developed countries and jurisdictions along with the Mine Health and Safety Act Regulation 22.9 (MHSR) of South Africa. The second comparison was conducted between South African and the four developing BRICS countries. BRICS is an acronym for: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, all are leading developing countries. Substance selection and coverage was compared by analysing the number of overlapping and uniquely regulated OELs that existed between countries. The over-all level of OELs was determined and quantified by using the statistical method, the geometric means of ratios. These ratios were compared in order to establish how the levels of OELs of the South African HCSR compare with the level of the various other countries. Results indicated that there are large and unsystematic differences between the selection of HCSs that are regulated by different countries and jurisdictions. Individual coverage and selection of HCSs between the various developing and developed countries and jurisdictions in the study was inconsistent and dissimilar. A high number of HCSs are regulated by only one of the various countries included in this study. Among the developed countries 20.8% of substances are uniquely regulated, whereas 46% of HCSs are regulated by only one of the various developing countries. According to the geometric means of ratios Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is the only jurisdiction in a developed country that has a higher overall level of OELs when compared to South Africa as for the rest of the developed countries they all yielded a lower overall level of OELs. American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygiene (ACGIH) had the lowest overall level of OELs. When compared with the BRICS countries South Africa had a higher overall level of OELs. The average overall level of OELs differs substantially between the BRICS countries; Russia having the lowest, and Brazil having the highest overall limit when compared relative to South African HCSR. Strong similarities were found between South African HCSR and MHSR indicating national similarity. The South African OELs for HCSs have an overall higher level than the majority of developed and developing countries. Various factors may be responsible for these differences among countries and jurisdictions. These factors include, variations in scientific reasoning, the risk acceptance of the negative impact that various HCSs might induce and the time lags that countries have between updates. Further differences may be explained by the difference in consideration of socio-economical and practical feasibility of an OEL and the predominant industries in a country. / Thesis (MSc (Occupational Hygiene))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

Various hazardous chemical substances are used daily as part of manufacturing and processing. Exposure to these hazardous chemical substances (HCSs) can cause adverse health effects in the exposed workers. Occupational exposure limits (OELs) are used to control exposure to these HCSs and thereby protect workers from the adverse effects that exposure may induce. The aim of this study was to compare South African list of OELs as contained in the Hazardous Chemical Substance Regulations (HCSR) to several developed and developing countries based on two aspects: (1) the number of substances that are selected and regulated by the lists of each country (2) and the overall level of the OELs set by the different countries and jurisdictions. Due to the nature and the large amount of data the study is divided into two parts. The first part is a comparison of South African OELs with nine developed countries and jurisdictions along with the Mine Health and Safety Act Regulation 22.9 (MHSR) of South Africa. The second comparison was conducted between South African and the four developing BRICS countries. BRICS is an acronym for: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, all are leading developing countries. Substance selection and coverage was compared by analysing the number of overlapping and uniquely regulated OELs that existed between countries. The over-all level of OELs was determined and quantified by using the statistical method, the geometric means of ratios. These ratios were compared in order to establish how the levels of OELs of the South African HCSR compare with the level of the various other countries. Results indicated that there are large and unsystematic differences between the selection of HCSs that are regulated by different countries and jurisdictions. Individual coverage and selection of HCSs between the various developing and developed countries and jurisdictions in the study was inconsistent and dissimilar. A high number of HCSs are regulated by only one of the various countries included in this study. Among the developed countries 20.8% of substances are uniquely regulated, whereas 46% of HCSs are regulated by only one of the various developing countries. According to the geometric means of ratios Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is the only jurisdiction in a developed country that has a higher overall level of OELs when compared to South Africa as for the rest of the developed countries they all yielded a lower overall level of OELs. American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygiene (ACGIH) had the lowest overall level of OELs. When compared with the BRICS countries South Africa had a higher overall level of OELs. The average overall level of OELs differs substantially between the BRICS countries; Russia having the lowest, and Brazil having the highest overall limit when compared relative to South African HCSR. Strong similarities were found between South African HCSR and MHSR indicating national similarity. The South African OELs for HCSs have an overall higher level than the majority of developed and developing countries. Various factors may be responsible for these differences among countries and jurisdictions. These factors include, variations in scientific reasoning, the risk acceptance of the negative impact that various HCSs might induce and the time lags that countries have between updates. Further differences may be explained by the difference in consideration of socio-economical and practical feasibility of an OEL and the predominant industries in a country. / Thesis (MSc (Occupational Hygiene))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Relações Internacionais, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais, 2016. / Submitted by Albânia Cézar de Melo (albania@bce.unb.br) on 2016-05-12T13:49:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2016_CamilaAmorimJardim.pdf: 1513566 bytes, checksum: b22a1ce6135b1c3183d70ead9b0ab66d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Raquel Viana(raquelviana@bce.unb.br) on 2016-05-17T21:14:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2016_CamilaAmorimJardim.pdf: 1513566 bytes, checksum: b22a1ce6135b1c3183d70ead9b0ab66d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-17T21:14:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2016_CamilaAmorimJardim.pdf: 1513566 bytes, checksum: b22a1ce6135b1c3183d70ead9b0ab66d (MD5) / Os anos 2000 são marcados por um novo ímpeto de alinhamento ao Sul na Política Externa Brasileira, tendo em vista a ascensão de potências emergentes, o declínio relativo dos Estados Unidos e a chamada estratégia de autonomia pela diversificação. Nesse período, o Brasil passa a se engajar – por vezes enquanto empreendedor político - em estratégias Cooperação Sul-Sul originais, notadamente o IBAS e o BRICS, os quais buscam, diferentemente do que era observado no passado, incluir em um mesmo agrupamento diversas agendas cooperação intra e extrabloco. Essas iniciativas unem, em um mesmo ambiente de diálogo, um tripé de cooperação ao qual denominou-se estratégia de cooperação Sul-Sul em múltiplas frentes e que compreende: coordenação política extrabloco, cooperação setorial e cooperação para o desenvolvimento com terceiros. A teoria da ação coletiva considera as dificuldades de coordenação e cooperação entre países diversos e agendas variadas; mas, em contraponto, o trabalho procurou demonstrar como isso ocorre na prática da política externa brasileira, por meio da estratégia de cooperação em múltiplas frentes. O referido modelo de cooperação tem sido uma grande aposta da estratégia internacional brasileira, a fim de reforçar suas posições de potência emergente e liderança no Sul Global, de modo que consiste, então, em objeto importante de análises acadêmicas que possam contextualizar e informar o engajamento político brasileiro. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT / The 2000s are noticeable by a new impetus for alignment to the South in the Brazilian foreign policy, in view of the rise of emerging powers, the US relative decline and the strategy called autonomy through diversification. During this period, Brazil starts to engage - sometimes as a political entrepreneur - in South-South cooperation strategies apparently original, particularly IBSA and BRICS, which seek, unlike what was observed in the past, to include in the same grouping diverse agendas of intra and extra-block cooperation. These initiatives together in the same ambiance of dialogue were named South-South cooperation on multiple fronts and comprise a cooperation tripod: coordinating extra-bloc policy, sectorial cooperation and cooperation for development with third parties. The theory of collective action considers the difficulties of coordination and cooperation between different countries in different agendas; but, in contrast, the study sought to demonstrate how this occurs in the practice of Brazilian foreign policy, through cooperation strategy on multiple fronts. Such model of cooperation has been a major focus of the Brazilian international strategy in order to strengthen their position as an emerging power and their leadership in the Global South, so it is, then, it consists of a relevant object for academic analysis seeking to contextualize and inform the Brazilian political engagement.

Magister Economicae - MEcon / A possible effect of quantitative easing (QE) undertaken by the United States of America (USA) Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) may have been an increase in capital flowing into emerging market economies (EMEs). The 2008 global financial crisis created an environment in which traditional monetary policies – cutting policy rates – became ineffective in stimulating growth. Faced with this policy environment, several high-income countries including the USA resorted to unconventional monetary policies notably QE, to grow their economies. While QE was effective in lowering interest rates in high-income countries, some argued that investors switched to higher yielding assets, mostly EME assets. Therefore, QE is perceived to have increased capital flows into EMEs. Using a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects this mini-thesis investigates empirically whether QE worked through unobservable channels to increase gross private capital inflows to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) in the period 2000-2015. The study finds evidence in support of the view that QE increased capital inflows to EMEs. The results reveal that gross private capital inflows to the BRICS increased during the QE intervention period and that the increase was higher in the first period of QE than in subsequent QE periods. The empirical results also reveal differences in the way types of capital flows responded to QE; portfolio flows, and in particular equity flows were the most responsive to QE. / 2018-12-14