<p>This paper adds to the understanding and transparency of equity pricing in emerging markets. Its novel contribution is that it empirically investigates the pricing of Country Risk in BRIC markets, using a two-factor intertemporal pricing model. Bridging the gap between academics and practitioners, this paper contributes to the debate as to whether or not it is justified to adjust discount rates for emerging market companies – as given by the CAPM – by including an unconditional country risk premium. In choosing between country risk proxies, the sovereign yield spread adjusted for relative equity volatility appears to supersede the classical sovereign yield spread in explaining return variations. Evidence is presented that country risk is priced in India and China indicating some type of market segmentation; in these markets, the addition of a country risk premium to the discount rate is justified. Moreover, the paper complements the market integration literature in that it is shown that the correlation between the change in country risk premium and the equity risk premium might show signs of market segmentation or market integration, rendering the pricing factor for country risk in specific countries significant or insignificant, respectively. © 2010 Soeriowardojo, G.T. All rights reserved.</p>

[pt] Esta dissertação estuda o fenômeno da correlação positiva entre o risco país e o risco cambial. A presença deste fenômeno é nociva às economias, pois as torna mais vulneráveis a choques recessivos. O trabalho busca, primeiramente, identificar qual a extensão do fenômeno separando uma amostra de 25 países em dois grupos: os que apresentam correlação positiva entre o risco país e o risco cambial e os que não apresentam. Baseado nesta divisão, em seguida é feita uma investigação de quais seriam os fatores determinantes do fenômeno. Os resultados indicam que o descasamento cambial e o baixo grau de aprofundamento financeiro estão fortemente associados com a presença do fenômeno. / [en] This dissertation studies the positive correlation between country and currency risks observed in some countries. The presence of this phenomenon is harmful to the economies, since it brings more vulnerability to recessive shocks. The first aim of this paper is to identify the extension of this phenomenon by separating a sample of 25 countries in two groups: the one where the positive correlation is observed and the one where it is not. Based on that that taxonomy, it is implemented an investigation on what are the factors responsible for the phenomenon. The results show that exchange rate mismatch and underdeveloped financial markets are strongly associated with the presence of positive correlation between the two risks.

[pt] O presente estudo tem por objetivo entender as variáveis que influenciaram o comportamento do Risco Soberano do Brasil no período de janeiro de 1995 a março de 2003. Para isso, usam-se os métodos estatísticos conhecidos como Regressão Múltipla e Matriz de Correlação de Pearson, assim como uma pesquisa profunda nos artigos sobre este tema. Apresenta-se como resultado do trabalho uma indicação da força que as variáveis conjunturais (nacionais e internacionais) possuem frente às variáveis econômicas (estruturais). Além disso, deixa-se como um desafio para novas pesquisas o desenvolvimento de um modelo preditivo baseando-se em Séries Temporais e nas dificuldades existentes neste trabalho. / [en] This study is designed to understand the variables that explain the Brazilian Sovereign Risk. To fulfill such an objective, statistical methods known as Multiple Regression and Pearson Correlation and analysis of many papers about this subject are employed. As result of this work, the study shows the power of external variables against economic variables to explain the behavior of Brazilian Sovereign Risk. The study shows too some economic variables that are significant to explain the behavior of Brazilian Sovereign Risk, as realized at the papers. Finally, a challenger to develop a Time Series model in order to forecast de Brazilian Sovereign Risk is placed.

El objetivo principal de esta investigación es analizar el impacto que tiene el riesgo país sobre la inversión extranjera directa, teniendo en cuenta los factores que afectan significativamente a la variable de estudio. Mediante este estudio se mostró que los inversionistas extranjeros, dentro de los factores más importantes, toman principalmente en cuenta el riesgo país como variable de medida para la toma de decisiones de sus inversiones en el país. Los objetivos específicos de la presente investigación buscan establecer una relación causal de la inversión extranjera directa con el nivel de apertura comercial, el nivel de consumo de la economía, las reservas internacionales netas y el índice general de la bolsa de valores de Lima, durante el periodo enero del 2002 hasta diciembre del 2016. / Trabajo de investigación

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nigeria’s ability to play a regional stabilizing role in the Gulf of Guinea is severely thwarted due to unresolved conflict in the Niger Delta. Stemming from agitation by local communities, it evolved from peaceful rallies into an armed insurgency with the youth as the vanguard, and the conflict has subsequently spread into neighbouring countries like Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Benin. The aim of this study was to analyse the conflict in the Niger Delta, southern Nigeria in order to assess its impact on the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea. Taking the form of a political risk analysis, a means of forecasting potential pitfalls for an investing client to mitigate or manage risk, the study postulated that a country specific risk analysis would not be sufficient to analyse an integrated system like the Gulf of Guinea. Many scholars have suggested that regional analysis has become more important than national. In the context of Africa contagion effects, the spill over, positive as well as negative from one country to another, casts doubt on the value of assessing only a country specific risk analysis. Taking this phenomenon into account, a regional risk index was created in order to assess the regional implications of the conflict in the Niger Delta. The index consists of six variables chosen from four political risk frameworks, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Business Environment Risk Intelligence, The Brink Model, and finally the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were chosen on their utility for regional political risk analysis and their status as major risk variables, universal risk variables employed by various risk frameworks. In the subsequent political risk analysis, the first four variables were rated as having a high risk while the latter two garnered a medium risk rating. As such the overall rating for the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea was found to be high. This study finds that conventional country specific risk models are still very much the preferred means of analysing risk, but that regional risk analysis would have to take a larger role in political risk analysis in the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Nigerië se vermoë om ‘n streeks-stabiliserende rol in die Golf van Guinea te speel, word ernstig gedwarsboom deur die onopgeloste konflik in die Niger Delta. Die oorsprong van die konflik in vreedsame gemeenskaplike protestaksie vir meer regverdige verdeling van olie inkomste het uitgekring na gewapende konflik, beide in die Delta self en in buurlande Kameroen, Ekwatoriale Guinee en Benin. Hierdie studie het gepoog om die konflik in die Nigeriese Delta te bestudeer om die impak van politieke risiko op die Golf van Guinea te assesseer. Die studie het die vorm van ‘n politieke risiko analise aangeneem, ‘n middel van vooruitskatting om potensiële valstrikke aan ‘n kliënt wat wil belê uit te wys om sodoende konflik te verlig of te beheer. Die studie veronderstel dat ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise onvoldoende is om ‘n geïntegreerde sisteem soos die Golf van Guinea te analiseer. Met menige akademici wat voorstel dat streeksanalise belangriker geword het as die nasionale, word daar in die konteks van die gevolge van Afrika-besmetting, die oorloop daarvan van een land na ‘n ander, positief sowel as negatief, ‘n skaduwee gegooi op die waarde van die assessering van slegs ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise. Met hierdie fenomeen in gedagte, is ‘n streek risiko inhoud geskep om die implikasies vir die konflik in die Niger Deltastreek, te assesseer. Die inhoud is saamgestel uit ‘n verskeidenheid van ses variante gekies uit vier politieke risiko raamwerke, nl die ‘Ekonomist Intelligence Unit’, die ‘Business Environment Risk Intelligence’, die ‘Brink Model’ en ook die ‘International Country Risk Guide’. Die variante is gebruik vir hulle waarde vir streekspolitieke risiko analise, asook die belangrikheid van hulle hoof risiko veranderlikheid, ‘n universele Hoof risiko variant wat gebruik word in verskillende risiko raamwerke. In die gevolglike politieke risiko-analise, is die vier variante beskou as ‘n baie hoë risiko, terwyl die laaste twee as medium risiko beskou word. Dus is die algemene taksering vir die politiese risiko in die Golf van Guinea baie hoog. Die studie vind uiteindelik dat lande se spesifieke risiko modelle steeds die verkose manier is om risiko’s te analiseer, alhoewel politieke risiko analise ‘n groter rol sal speel in toekomstige streek risiko analise.

Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Instability in foreign political and social systems, changing power structures in international relations, and growing demands by host countries for a greater control over the operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have all led to the necessity of an improved way in which to determine foreign investment opportunities. Not surprisingly therefore, political risk assessment has become one of the fastest growing fields of study. Being concerned with the identification, analysis, management, and reduction of socio-political risks for foreign investors. The focus of this study is that of political risk analysis and the way in which it impacts on investor perception and consequently determines levels of foreign direct investment received by a particular country. Numerous definitions for the term "political risk" exist. Consequently, no specific definition is regarded as being completely correct since consensus still needs to be reached. One of the definitions used within this study is that political risk analysis is the analysis of the possibility that factors caused or influenced by governmental political decisions or other unforeseen events in a country will affect business climates in such a way that investors will lose money or not make as much profit as they expected when the initial decision to invest was made. These factors can be of internal (from inside the host country) or external origin, and can pose macro or micro risks. Foreign Direct Investment in brief is an investment involving a long-term relationship and reflecting a lasting interest and control of a resident entity in one economy in an enterprise resident in an economy other than that of the foreign direct investor. This study is a comparative between South Africa and Nigeria. South Africa and Nigeria share many similarities, they are both resource based, African countries. They are both fairly recent democracies, although some may contest the status of Nigeria as being a democracy. They are also both heterogeneous states, both consisting of various ethnic groups. Nigeria offers investors a low-cost labour pool, abundant natural resources, and a large domestic market. However, Nigeria suffers from an inadequate and poorly maintained infrastructure, confusing and inconsistent regulations, endemic corruption, and a lack of confidence in the rule of law. Despite all of this, Nigeria alone accounts for a quarter of FDI flows to Africa. In comparison, South Africa's FDI potential has not been fully exploited. This study will discuss the possible reasons why this is the case. The labour market in both countries and the challenges they face are discussed in depth within this study. Due to the fact that aside from investment, the economic growth within a country is dependent on a variety of factors, the backbone of which is the labour market. In determining levels of risk within both South Africa and Nigeria, this study made use of a political risk model. Although the intention has been to be as accurate and as thorough as possible, it should be noted that as yet, no generalised systematic method of conducting political risk assessment exists. Results, although extensively substantiated, remains the interpretation of the researcher and as such remains open to debate. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Onstabiliteit in buitelandse politieke en sosiale stelsels, veranderende mag strukture in internasionale betrekkinge, en die groeiende behoeftes van gasheer lande om meer beheer uit te oefen oor die funksioneering van buitelandse maatskappye het alles gelei na die noodsaaklikheid van 'n beter manier om buitelandse investering te bepaal. Dus is dit nie verbasend dat politieke risiko analise deesdae een van die vinnigste ontwikkelende onderwerpe is wat bestudeer word nie. Politieke risiko analise is belangrik vir die identifikasie, analise, bestuur en vermindering van sosio-politieke risiko vir buitelandse investering. Hierdie studie fokus op die impak wat politieke risiko' analise het met betrekking tot belegger waarneming en hoe dit dan ook moontlik die bedrag van buitelandse investering wat 'n land ontvang, kan bepaal. Daar is verskeie definisies wat die term "politieke risiko" beskryf en gevolglik moet konsensus nog bereik word oor 'n "korrekte" een. Een van die definisies wat in hierdie studie gebruik word is dat politieke risiko die analise is van die moontlikheid dat sekere faktore wat veroorsaak is of wat beïnvloed is deur die regering se politieke besluite, asook ander onvoorspelbare gebeurtenise in 'n land wat die investerings klimaat so kan beïnvloed dat die buitelandse beleggers moontlik geld kan verloor of miskien nie die verwagte winste behaal wat hulle aanvanklik gereken het, sou behaal nie. Hierdie faktore kan of intern (binne die gasheer land) of ekstern van aard wees en kan dus makro of mikro risiko behels. Direkte buitelandse investering in 'n land is 'n belegging wat In lang termyn verhouding insluit en dit reflekteer ook 'n blywende belangstelling en beheer van 'n buitelandse maatskappy in 'n gasheer land in. Hierdie studie is 'n vergelykende studie tussen Suid-Afrika en Nigerië. Suid-Afrika en Nigerië deel baie ooreenkomste. Beide lande is ryk aan natuurlike bronne en beide is nog "jong" demokratiese lande. Sommige mense stem nie saam dat Nigerië wel aan al die vereistes van 'n demokrasie voldoen nie. Suid-Afrika en Nigerië is ook heterogene state wat uit verskeie etniese groepe bestaan. Nigerië bied vir die buitelandse belegger billike arbeid, oorvloedige natuurlike bronne, asook In groot binnelandse mark. Ten spyte hiervan, moet dit ook in ag geneem word dat Nigerië onder onvoldoende en In swak instandhouding van infrastruktuur, wispelturige regulasies, korrupsie en ook In swak regsisteem ly. Ten spyte van al hierdie faktore, ontvang Nigerië In kwart van alle buitelandse investering in Afrika. Suid-Afrika se buitelandse investerings potensiaal in vergelyking met ander lande moet nog ontwikkel word. Hierdie studie sal die moontlike redes vir Suid Afrika se oneksploiteerbare buitelandse investerings potensiaal bespreek. Die arbeidsmark en die uitdagings wat gestel word het In groot invloed op buitelandse investering. Hierdie studie het ten doelom beide lande se arbeidsmark te bespreek en te vergelyk met betrekking tot buitelandse investering. Om die moontlike risiko in altwee lande te bepaal, maak hierdie studie gebruik van In politieke risiko analise model. Die navorser het gepoog om so deeglik en akkuraat as moontlik te wees. Dit moet ook in ag geneem word dat daar nog geen veralgemeende metode van politieke risiko analise ontwikkel is nie.

Having the author been involved in banking and finance for almost 25 years, this thesis intends to reflect on the role of banks with emphasis on cross border lending and credit rating, their effectiveness and the impacts of cultural differences. Perhaps this would not differ substantially from a researcher or a scholar, yet the exploratory approach taken in this research will be somewhat different as it deliberately seeks to answer a number of questions relevant to practitioners in today’s banking. In trying to achieve this goal, this thesis hopefully may find its way to international bankers wondering about the perspectives of their business in general and their profession in specific. It even may perhaps improve the understanding of their clients. The Basel committee which published the new Basel II framework on bank regulation and supervision was the result of long and careful discussions, wide consultations and comprehensive impact studies. Whereas Basel II covers the entire risk profile and supervision of financial institutions, this research is limited to the cross border lending by banks to companies and provides the views from both practicing international bankers and their customers on their 3 expectations regarding Basel II, credit rating and the relevance of context and culture differences. Bankers all over the world are being trained on how to read balance sheets, yet less attention is being paid as to by whom they are being created and how precisely these balance sheets came into existence, other than the accountancy standards applied. Bankers furthermore seem to agree on the fact that credit risks in large part are related to the management competencies, effective corporate governance and integrity of management and organization. The argument could be made that the assessment of management capabilities, governance and integrity may be hindered in those cases where the culture is little understood. In a three days conferences titled; “The Future of Relationship Banking”, 80 senior executives from international banks and large companies were gathered in Punta del Este, Uruguay and were asked to speak about these aspects. A transcript of the conference is provided as annex to this thesis (Annex 1) and serves to triangulate the findings of the research. Main findings of three management papers were presented by the researcher during the conference. A survey was performed during the conference and in addition, through an online survey, in total over 100 practitioners in the field participated in the survey. Results show a variation of conclusions, but very especially seem to confirm the view, contrary to the approach taken in Basel II, that cultural differences and context are felt to be highly relevant in cross border lending.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research assignment has investigated the overall nature of the investment climate in the People's Republic of China (PRC).The investment climate was analysed using a Political Risk Analysis (PRA) framework, whereby the PRC was scrutinised closely for its most defining socioeconomic features and, especially, for its most salient political risk factors. Based on this, the assignment evaluated this climate with specific relevance to the investment plans of the South African company SAB-Miller. Since its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO)in 2001, the PRC has intensified its economic restructuring process, a necessary and inevitable process, in order to comply with the terms of the WTOframework. This period of adjustment has heightened the anxiety over the strength of the Chinese economy, and the repercussions and/or opportunities for the multinational SAB-Miller.To remedy this uncertainty, this assignment has drawn up an in-depth qualitative scenario, in order to forecast the major trends of the PRC's short-term socio-political future. The main findings of the assignment indicate that a 'high-road' scenario is the most likely to occur in the PRC in the short-term. Clearly, this favourable forecast 1S dependent on the continuation of the current economic and socio-political restructuring process in the PRC. With regards to the main macro-political risks factors, the assignment draws attention to several critical areas of concern. Firstly, the lack of legitimatisation from the 'bottom-up' is a worrying feature, especially in light of the growing economic disparities between citizens and between provinces. Secondly, the financial and governmental sectors need a thorough restructuring, according to WTO criteria. Thirdly, the fragmentation of the market inside the PRe undermines the potential of the PRC government to diffuse the benefits of economic growth and to absorb the downsides of globalisation. Micro-specific risk factors for the company SAB-Miller are focussed predominantly on the speed and the depth of the implementation of the guidelines of the WTO. Especially with regards to the lowering of intra-provincial trade barriers and the efficacy of the distribution networks. Lastly, SAB-Miller should eliminate any risk factors, which may originate from inside the company's behaviour, such as the effects of its adopted labour policies. Lastly, it should maintain a clear level of transparency in their associations with governmental institutions. Throughout the assignment, these risk factors will be investigated and related to the overall political risk climate and utilised to draw conclusions concerning the potential of the investment plans of SAB-Miller. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie werkstuk het die beleggingsklimaat van die Volksrepubliek China (VRC) ondersoek. Die beleggingssklimaat is ontleed deur gebruik te maak van 'n model vir Politieke Risiko Analise (PRA), waarby die VRC sorgvuldig onderwerp is aan 'n ondersoek van sy mees kenmerkende sosio-ekonomiese faktore en van die belangrikste risiko faktore. Hierop gebaseer, het die werkstuk ook die beleggingsklimaat ontleed met spesifieke betrekking tot die beleggingsplanne van die Suid Afrikaanse maatskappy SAB-Miller. Sedert toetreding tot die Wêreld Handelsorganisasie (WHO) in 2001, het die VRC sy transformasie proses versnel ten einde te voldoen aan die WHO se toelatingskriteria. Hierdie tydperk van aanpassing het kommer gewek oor die Chinese ekonomie asook oor die gevolge daarvan vir die maatskappy SABMiller. Om hierdie onsekerheid aan te spreek het die werkstuk 'n kwalitatiewe scenario voorgestel, ten einde die hoofpunte van die VRC se sosio-ekonomiese kort-termyn toekoms vooruit te skat. Die gevolgtrekking van hierdie werkstuk toon aan dat 'n 'high-road' scenario die waarskynlikste is gedurende die kort termyn. Dis ook duidelik dat die gunstige vooruitskattings afhanklik is van die voortsetting van die huidige sosioekonomiese transformasie proses van die VRC. Met betrekking tot die vernaamste makro-politieke risiko faktore het die werkstuk aandag gegee aan verskeie kommerwekkende aspekte. Eerstens, die gebrek aan elektorale regmatigheid van die 'grond-af, waarskynlik in die lig van die toenemende ekonomisiese verskille tussen burgers asook tussen provinsies. Tweedens, moet die finansiële- en staatssektore grondig herstruktureer word volgens die WHO riglyne. Derdens, ondermyn die fragmentasie van die mark van binne China die mag van die VRCse regering om die voordele van die ekonomiese groei gelykmatig te versprei, asook om die nadele van Globalisasie te absorbeer. Mikro-spesifieke risiko faktore vir die SAB-Miller maatskappy het hoofsaaklik gefokus op die spoed en die diepgang van die implementering van die WHO riglyne. In besonder met betrekking tot die hoë interprovinsiale handelsbelemmerings en die optimale effektiwiteit van die verspreidingskakels. Laatstens, moet SAB-Miller enige risiko faktore elimineer wat as gevolg van die maatskappy se eie gedrag kan onstaan, byvoorbeeld die maatskappy se arbeidsvoorwaardes. SAB-Miller moet ook 'n duidelike aanspreeklikheidsfunksie daarstel, in hulle betrekkinge met Chinese staatsinstellings. Deur die hele werkstuk word hierdie risiko faktore ondersoek en in verband gebring met die algemene politieke risiko klimaat, en word ook gebruik om gevolgtrekkinge te maak aangaande die potensiaal van SAB-Millerse beleggingsplanne.

Thesis (MBA) -- Stellenbosch University, 2010. / As major corporate entities are investing into Sub-Saharan Africa and other African countries at a fast pace, percentages like the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and the impairment discount rate, are becoming important measurements of assessing current investments for impairment and/or proposals of future capital investments. One of the important constituents of these percentages is the country/equity risk premium. The country risk premium can be defined as the price for taking risk for investing in that specific country. A widely used method to determine the country risk premium is to multiply the country bond default spread with an equity to bond market risk adjustment. Country bond default spreads are the spreads that investors charge for buying bonds issued by the country. These ratings measure default risk, rather than equity risk, but they are affected by many factors that drive equity risk, like the stability of a country’s currency, the budget and trade balances and the political stability. Analysis that uses spreads as a measure of country risk, usually adds them to both the cost of equity and debt of entities that trade in that country. There are several ways in determining the bond default spreads, but it is most often done in a random and unsystematic manner. Two of the major obstacles in determining these spreads for countries, especially countries of sub-Saharan Africa, are when countries do not issue bonds in another currency such as Euro or US dollar and/or do not have a sovereign credit rating. What could also be a measure of country risk, are the two major country risk polls conducted globally: 1) Euromoney Country Risk Poll; and 2) PRS (Political Risk Group) Composite Risk Ratings. Most of sub-Saharan African countries form part of these risk polls. The usefulness of the PRS scores as a measure of country risk has been previously examined to find that they are correlated with the cost of capital of emerging markets. The aim of the research is to overcome the obstacles in determining default spreads for countries such as sub-Saharan Africa where bond markets are inactive and/or sovereign credit ratings are not assigned, by deriving a predictive model. The predictive model is derived by analysing the relationship between the available estimated default spreads that are assigned to a specific country, depending on their Moody’s sovereign local currency rating and the countries’ respective country risk scores conducted by Euromoney and PRS respectively. The stability of the relationship is also analysed by comparing the prediction of the sub-Saharan’s Africa default spreads based on the 2010 predictive model to the analyses conducted on 2008 data sets. Other similar models have been developed, but this model is focused on the total risk score of a country and not only on the credit risk or related constituents. One of the definitions of country risk is that it relates to the likelihood that changes in the business environment will occur that reduce the profitability of doing business in a country, which can negatively affect operating profits as well as the value of assets. One can conclude that this derived model is a good reflection of prevailing political and economic stability of the countries and a useful measure of country risk that can be used in assessing the profitability of current investments in a specific country and for proposals of future capital investments. Key words: Country bond default spreads, Sovereign credit ratings, Euromoney risk scores, PRS composite ratings, sub-Saharan African countries.

How do we account for foreign firms that are successful in politically “risky” countries? While traditional political risk indices may tell us why a country is considered a difficult operating environment, they tell us very little about why some foreign firms are nevertheless able to operate successfully in such countries over long periods of time. In fact, risk indices by their very nature make “success” almost impossible to capture due to their sole focus on “host country” behavior. Rather, as this thesis argues, the political risk is in the relationship between the firm and a series of stakeholders within a given country, not the country itself. This is a thesis of deviant cases: it holds the “successful relationship” between a foreign firm and its stakeholders as the constant dependent variable in the “significantly risky” country of Kazakhstan. Success is defined as the ability of each actor to pursue its own goals to a self-satisfactory degree, with the resources an actor mobilizes to achieve those goals and the constraints that restrict those resources as the independent variables. Three self-contained cases of “successful” foreign mining firms operating in Kazakhstan are analyzed here to determine the distinct causal pathways that led each firm to seeming “success”; the thesis then pivots to a between-subjects examination aimed at drawing out the common themes among the three different foreign firms. Within international relations theory, the relationship between the foreign firm and its stakeholders is considered here as a window into the intersection of the international political economy and the domestic political economy of a country in transition, but critically, allotting agents and structures equal ontological status. Thus the ultimate aim of this investigation is to enrich our understanding of social behavior – here, co-existence – within the context of the agent- structure debate in larger social scientific inquiry.