When referring physicians decide to refer their patients to specialist care, they rarely, if ever, make a referral decision with the benefit of having access to all of the desirable information. It is therefore highly unlikely that the referring physician will make the optimal choice of specialist for that particular referral. A specialist selection optimization algorithm was developed to guarantee that the “right specialist” for each patient’s referral was chosen. The specialist selection optimization algorithm was developed based on feedback from over 120 users of the e-referral program. The developed algorithm was simulated, tested, and validated in MATLAB. Results from the MATLAB simulation demonstrate that the algorithm functioned as it was designed to. The developed algorithm provides referring physicians with an unprecedented level of support for their decision of which specialist to refer their patient to.

When referring physicians decide to refer their patients to specialist care, they rarely, if ever, make a referral decision with the benefit of having access to all of the desirable information. It is therefore highly unlikely that the referring physician will make the optimal choice of specialist for that particular referral. A specialist selection optimization algorithm was developed to guarantee that the “right specialist” for each patient’s referral was chosen. The specialist selection optimization algorithm was developed based on feedback from over 120 users of the e-referral program. The developed algorithm was simulated, tested, and validated in MATLAB. Results from the MATLAB simulation demonstrate that the algorithm functioned as it was designed to. The developed algorithm provides referring physicians with an unprecedented level of support for their decision of which specialist to refer their patient to.

Declines and extinctions of amphibian populations are a global dilemma with complex local causes, which should be viewed in the context of a much larger biodiversity crisis. As other animal groups, amphibians with restricted distributions, such as island endemics, are thought to be more vulnerable to environmental change and susceptible to population declines. In the New Zealand archipelago, the only four native species of frogs (Leiopelma hochstetteri, L. archeyi, L. hamiltoni and L. pakeka) are classified as threatened. In particular Leiopelma hochstetteri, the most widespread and abundant endemic frog species in New Zealand, now survives only in spatially fragmented populations as a result of direct or indirect human activity. Hence, it is recognised as threatened and fully protected by legislation. In the last fifty years, some L. hochstetteri populations have been studied, providing descriptive information, which may be used to assess the current status (increasing, stable or declining) of previously or never monitored populations. This thesis examines the diet and trophic level, the effects ship rats (Rattus rattus) as well as the distribution and abundance of L. hochstetteri on a habitat-use context, to provide a basis for evaluating conceivable decline-agents, and to establish a platform to design directed conservation strategies. The Waitakere Ranges are considered a Leiopelma hochstetteri conservation management unit, on which L. hochstetteri has been previously studied. This area consists of a series of hills that run roughly north–south, which are mostly covered in regenerating indigenous vegetation. Today, 60% of the Waitakere Ranges fall within a Regional Park, which together with its surrounding residential areas is afforded protection to minimise the effects of development on the region. The accessibility and conservation character of this area makes it an ideal area for the study of L. hochstetteri populations. As a first step to characterise the diet and trophic level of L. hochstetteri within streams in the Waitakere Ranges, Auckland, stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were undertaken on a variety of sympatric terrestrial and aquatic plant and animal species, including adult frogs. These results showed that: 1) aquatic and terrestrial food webs were linked by terrestrial inputs into the stream; 2) invertebrate and vertebrate predators separated well into distinct trophic groups; and 3) L. hochstetteri occupied an intermediate trophic position among predators, with a diet, at least as an adult, comprising terrestrial invertebrates. Shortfin eels and banded kokopu were identified as potential predators of L. hochstetteri, but data for rats were inconclusive. The inconclusiveness of these trophic studies, with regard to the effects of ship rats on L. hochstetteri populations, lead me to evaluate the influence of a seven-year ship rat management operation on frog abundance. To achieve a reliable evaluation, the habitat characteristics that had significant influence on frog abundance were identified. Then, it was confirmed that the study areas represented similar habitats in terms of those variables, and finally the effect of the pest-management activities was evaluated. Presence/absence of pest-management operations did not have a significant effect on frog abundance. These results, together with the results of the diet and trophic level analyses, suggested that ship rats do not represent a significant threat for this frog species, at least in the Waitakere Ranges. The results of distribution and abundance investigations indicated that in the Waitakere Ranges frogs are currently widely distributed, relatively abundant and that recruitment has occurred at least in the last ten years. Additionally, in order to identify associations between habitat characteristics and frog distribution and abundance, reliable and specifically designed monitoring methodologies were developed. Although this frog is known to occur in wet areas adjacent to shaded streams in forested catchments, quantitative ecological data previously did not exist to enable characterisation of its habitat. Here, novel data were reported on the current distribution and habitat requirements of this species in the Waitakere Ranges. Statistical modelling demonstrates frogs most likely occur in small, erosive streams with coarse substrates and cold waters, surrounded by mature or undisturbed riparian vegetation, where higher abundances of frogs may be found in steep areas with stable patches of cobbles and boulders lying against larger stream bed elements within the stream channel. Anthropogenic activities, such as clearing or logging, and upstream disturbances that potentially increase silt input into streams were identified as threats to these frog species. Finally, the habitat-use information gathered during this investigation was utilised to develop a spatial decision support system (SDSS) as a tool to assess the quality and quantity of habitat available to L. hochstetteri populations associated with the Auckland Region. These results have important implications for the conservation of New Zealand native frog species and riparian stream habitat.

Declines and extinctions of amphibian populations are a global dilemma with complex local causes, which should be viewed in the context of a much larger biodiversity crisis. As other animal groups, amphibians with restricted distributions, such as island endemics, are thought to be more vulnerable to environmental change and susceptible to population declines. In the New Zealand archipelago, the only four native species of frogs (Leiopelma hochstetteri, L. archeyi, L. hamiltoni and L. pakeka) are classified as threatened. In particular Leiopelma hochstetteri, the most widespread and abundant endemic frog species in New Zealand, now survives only in spatially fragmented populations as a result of direct or indirect human activity. Hence, it is recognised as threatened and fully protected by legislation. In the last fifty years, some L. hochstetteri populations have been studied, providing descriptive information, which may be used to assess the current status (increasing, stable or declining) of previously or never monitored populations. This thesis examines the diet and trophic level, the effects ship rats (Rattus rattus) as well as the distribution and abundance of L. hochstetteri on a habitat-use context, to provide a basis for evaluating conceivable decline-agents, and to establish a platform to design directed conservation strategies. The Waitakere Ranges are considered a Leiopelma hochstetteri conservation management unit, on which L. hochstetteri has been previously studied. This area consists of a series of hills that run roughly north–south, which are mostly covered in regenerating indigenous vegetation. Today, 60% of the Waitakere Ranges fall within a Regional Park, which together with its surrounding residential areas is afforded protection to minimise the effects of development on the region. The accessibility and conservation character of this area makes it an ideal area for the study of L. hochstetteri populations. As a first step to characterise the diet and trophic level of L. hochstetteri within streams in the Waitakere Ranges, Auckland, stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were undertaken on a variety of sympatric terrestrial and aquatic plant and animal species, including adult frogs. These results showed that: 1) aquatic and terrestrial food webs were linked by terrestrial inputs into the stream; 2) invertebrate and vertebrate predators separated well into distinct trophic groups; and 3) L. hochstetteri occupied an intermediate trophic position among predators, with a diet, at least as an adult, comprising terrestrial invertebrates. Shortfin eels and banded kokopu were identified as potential predators of L. hochstetteri, but data for rats were inconclusive. The inconclusiveness of these trophic studies, with regard to the effects of ship rats on L. hochstetteri populations, lead me to evaluate the influence of a seven-year ship rat management operation on frog abundance. To achieve a reliable evaluation, the habitat characteristics that had significant influence on frog abundance were identified. Then, it was confirmed that the study areas represented similar habitats in terms of those variables, and finally the effect of the pest-management activities was evaluated. Presence/absence of pest-management operations did not have a significant effect on frog abundance. These results, together with the results of the diet and trophic level analyses, suggested that ship rats do not represent a significant threat for this frog species, at least in the Waitakere Ranges. The results of distribution and abundance investigations indicated that in the Waitakere Ranges frogs are currently widely distributed, relatively abundant and that recruitment has occurred at least in the last ten years. Additionally, in order to identify associations between habitat characteristics and frog distribution and abundance, reliable and specifically designed monitoring methodologies were developed. Although this frog is known to occur in wet areas adjacent to shaded streams in forested catchments, quantitative ecological data previously did not exist to enable characterisation of its habitat. Here, novel data were reported on the current distribution and habitat requirements of this species in the Waitakere Ranges. Statistical modelling demonstrates frogs most likely occur in small, erosive streams with coarse substrates and cold waters, surrounded by mature or undisturbed riparian vegetation, where higher abundances of frogs may be found in steep areas with stable patches of cobbles and boulders lying against larger stream bed elements within the stream channel. Anthropogenic activities, such as clearing or logging, and upstream disturbances that potentially increase silt input into streams were identified as threats to these frog species. Finally, the habitat-use information gathered during this investigation was utilised to develop a spatial decision support system (SDSS) as a tool to assess the quality and quantity of habitat available to L. hochstetteri populations associated with the Auckland Region. These results have important implications for the conservation of New Zealand native frog species and riparian stream habitat.

Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPGs) have evolved from traditional video games in that they embrace both the technology of the Internet and video games. The massive “exodus” from the physical offline world to online gaming communities brings with it not only a number of unique and exciting opportunities, but also a number of emerging and serious risks. This research set out to examine the unique opportunities and risks to vulnerable individuals, namely, young adults, teenagers and young children; all of whom are considered by many to be priority groups in the protection from harm. The purpose was to examine the reality of vulnerable individuals encountering these opportunities and risks. This research combined a number of methodologies supported by underpinning qualitative and quantitative theories. Questionnaires, semi-structured interviews and focus groups gathered information from teenagers, adults and children in order to critically examine the unique opportunities and risks encountered in Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games. The findings from these interactions identified specific examples of opportunities and risk posed to vulnerable individuals. The findings demonstrated that there was a need for a support and protection mechanism that promoted the identification and awareness of the potential risk among vulnerable individuals. Emerging from these findings was a set of concepts that provided the evidence base for a Novel Taxonomy of Opportunities and Risks in Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game environments that was designed to assist in the assessment of risk. Validation of the proposed taxonomy was achieved by means of an ethnographic study of (World of Warcraft) online gamers’ behaviour and social interactions through unobtrusive video capture of gaming sessions. The Novel Taxonomy of Opportunities and Risks provided a basis for the development of a proof-of-concept Decision Support System; the purpose of which was to assist both social work practitioners and individuals to identify and reduce risks. Representatives from both user groups were consulted for evaluation of the acceptability of such an approach. Favourable responses from participants demonstrated acceptability of the aforementioned approach. The evaluation process also demonstrated how the prototype would serve as a useful tool to make individual users aware of potential dangers. This research presents three novel facets: (1) it advances understanding of the unique opportunities and risks within MMORPG environments; (2) provides a framework for the assessment of risks in MMORPGs through the Novel Taxonomy and (3) demonstrates a novel Decision Support System to assist in the identification and reduction of risk through a proof-of-concept prototype.

Poisonings account for 0.8% of emergency room visits each year. Our review of current toxicological resources revealed a gap in their ability to provide expedient calculations and recommendations, as they are broad in scope and time-consuming to read. Time is crucial in a toxicologic emergency. Delay in first dose can lead to life-threatening sequelae. To bridge the gap, we developed the Antidote Application (AA), a computational system that automatically provides patient-specific antidote treatment recommendation(s) and individualized dose calculation(s). We implemented 27 algorithms that describe FDA approved use and evidence-based practices found in primary literature for the treatment of common toxin exposure. The AA covers 29 antidotes recommended by Poison Control and toxicology experts, 31 toxins from 19 toxin classes, and over 200 toxic entities. We implemented the AA in two formats: a standalone downloadable application for offline use and an online web application. The AA represents a unique educational resource for the study of toxicology with the potential of being adopted for point of care decision support. The system also provides guidance for reporting toxic exposures regionally and nationally as required by accrediting bodies and some states. The AA system has the potential for reducing initial dose delays and medication errors. To the best of our knowledge, the AA is the first educational and decision support system in toxicology that provides patient-specific treatment recommendations and drug dose calculations. The downloadable and online Antidote Applications are publically available at http://www.met-hilab.org/files/antidote/antidote_application.jar and http://projects.met-hilab.org/antidote/ respectively.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:30:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2007-08Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T21:00:25Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 almeida_r_me_guara.pdf: 1434970 bytes, checksum: a45e1def677af7ba7d2da134164d54f6 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Este trabalho aborda o problema de identificação dos efeitos causados por eventuais falhas no abastecimento de certos materiais ou equipamentos na linha de montagem de aeronaves. Tal problema consiste em avaliar se o atraso na disponibilidade de um determinado material pode ser absorvido pela flexibilidade existente na rede de atividades da produção. Dessa forma, foi desenvolvido um sistema de apoio à decisão para o planejamento e controle da produção, utilizando simulação de eventos discretos para avaliar se o sincronismo entre os elos da cadeia produtiva está se comportando a contento e, em caso negativo, disponibilizar informações para as correções necessárias. A grande dificuldade na modelagem do sistema está na necessidade de integração de uma complexa cadeia de suprimentos a uma grande rede de atividades necessárias à manufatura das aeronaves. Apesar da complexidade, o sistema criado é capaz de identificar antecipadamente o impacto causado na montagem pelos insumos atrasados, além de prover uma visão de quais materiais, e respectivos fornecedores, apresentam um atraso que não pode ser absorvido pelo sistema, o que facilitaria o trabalho dos gestores da cadeia de suprimentos para aumentar a robustez do sistema. / This work approaches the effects identification of problems caused by eventual fails in the provisioning of material or equipments in one assembly line of aircrafts. Such problem consists in evaluating if a delay in the availability of a material can be absorbed by the flexibility in the activities network of the production. This way, a decision support system was developed to support the planning and control of the production, using systems simulation, to evaluate if the synchronism among the links of the productive chain is behaving as necessary; in negative case, the system must to provide information for manager’s action. The great difficulty to produce a model of this system is about the necessary integration of a complex supply chain to a big activities network associate to aircrafts manufacture. In spite of that complexity, the system developed is able to identify the impact caused in the assembly line by each late input, providing a vision of which materials, and respective suppliers, have a delay that cannot be absorbed by the production line. So, this research looks for facilitate the manager works in to increase the system robustness.

Abstract For the past few years, electronics manufacturing may have been the victim of its own success. Unlike in heavier industries, rationalization is a concept that was unknown in the sector until only a few years ago and even now, many companies are struggling with cost-cutting measures. Production systems in electronics manufacturing need to be highly flexible because of a varying and evolving environment. Therefore real-time process control and, possibly as a result, production optimization are extremely challenging areas. Traditional approaches often do not work due to a lack of robustness or reliability. For this reason, a new generation of decision support systems is needed in response to some specific problems. The thesis addresses topics such as design of intelligent interfaces for knowledge acquisition and elicitation, use of that knowledge for improved data analysis and diagnostics, real-time feedback control, self-tuning capabilities, and evaluation of optimization methods in discrete processes. Topics covered therefore include the whole scope of a decision support system, from its design through to the evaluation of its performance as well as interaction capabilities as a vehicle for sharing information. The aim of this research is to streamline the development of a new generation of decision support systems by providing tools and methods for a better integration of knowledge in an evolving environment. The main interest lies not only in improved data analysis, but also in better formalization and use of diagnosis. Case studies presented in this thesis demonstrate the practical feasibility of such an approach.

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