The operational management of Water Distribution Systems (WDS), particularly under failure conditions when the behaviour of a WDS is not well understood, is a challenging problem. The research presented in this thesis describes the development of a methodology for risk-based diagnostics of failures in WDS and its application in a near real-time Decision Support System (DSS) for WDS’ operation. In this thesis, the use of evidential reasoning to estimate the likely location of a burst pipe within a WDS by combining outputs of several models is investigated. A novel Dempster-Shafer model is developed, which fuses evidence provided by a pipe burst prediction model, a customer contact model and a hydraulic model to increase confidence in correctly locating a burst pipe. A new impact model, based on a pressure driven hydraulic solver coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to capture the adverse effects of failures from an operational perspective, is created. A set of Key Performance Indicators used to quantify impact, are aggregated according to the preferences of a Decision Maker (DM) using the Multi-Attribute Value Theory. The potential of distributed computing to deliver a near real-time performance of computationally expensive impact assessment is explored. A novel methodology to prioritise alarms (i.e., detected abnormal flow events) in a WDS is proposed. The relative significance of an alarm is expressed using a measure of an overall risk represented by a set of all potential incidents (e.g., pipe bursts), which might have caused it. The DM’s attitude towards risk is taken into account during the aggregation process. The implementation of the main constituents of the proposed risk-based pipe burst diagnostics methodology, which forms a key component of the aforementioned DSS prototype, are tested on a number of real life and semi-real case studies. The methodology has the potential to enable more informed decisions to be made in the near real-time failure management in WDS.

Esta tese desenvolveu um Sistema de Suporte a Decisão para auxiliar na concessão de outorga de lançamento de efluentes, através do qual é possível avaliar estratégias de outorga visando facilitar o processo de análise e a efetivação do instrumento. O SSD utiliza em seu processo de análise algoritmos evolucionários para a otimização do processo de alocação de demanda e de carga efluente, visando a maximização dos usos e a minimização dos custos das medidas de tratamento de efluentes, respeitando os limites estabelecidos pela classe de enquadramento dos corpos dágua. Os algoritmos evolutivos analisados foram os Algoritmos Genéticos, Particle Swarm Optimization e o Differential Evolution. Entre as estratégias de outorga consideradas estão o atendimento da legislação ambiental para o lançamento de efluentes, a isonomia entre os usuários, o atendimento aos padrões de qualidade estabelecidos pelo enquadramento dos corpos hídricos e as restrições impostas pelo órgão gestor aos usuários ou as finalidades de uso. Para avaliar o desempenho do SSD foi realizado um estudo de caso na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Atibaia, no Estado de São Paulo. O Rio Atibaia foi escolhido por apresentar problemas de disponibilidade hídrica e conflitos pelo uso da água, o que permite avaliar os resultados do SSD para as diferentes estratégias em um caso real. Os resultados obtidos pelos três algoritmos para as estratégias analisadas foram satisfatórios atendendo as restrições e penalidades impostas à função objetivo. Observou-se que a estratégia de outorga que não considerou a Legislação Ambiental para lançamento de efluentes e a questão da isonomia entre os usuários apresentou o menor custo global das medidas de tratamento de efluentes. Este resultado se deve ao fato desta estratégia ser menos restritiva que as demais analisadas, e pelo melhor aproveitamento da vazão disponível no trecho para diluir os efluentes. As estratégias propostas neste estudo tiveram como principal objetivo avaliar o comportamento do SSD na obtenção das análises, assim como analisar a flexibilidade dos algoritmos na introdução de restrições e penalidades. Para a escolha das estratégias de outorga, destaca-se o importante papel do Comitê de Bacia e do órgão gestor para definir as prioridades, tendo em vista que os critérios de outorga, a legislação ambiental e a isonomia, podem acarretar em investimentos mais elevados para a implementação das medidas de tratamento. O Sistema de Suporte a Decisão proposto nesta tese representa um avanço no processo de gestão de recursos hídricos, uma vez que envolve importantes critérios e estratégias na análise da outorga de direito de uso da água, sem dissociar os aspectos de quantidade e qualidade da água e aspectos econômicos para sua efetivação. / This study presents a Decision Support System (DSS) to assist in the issuing of wastewater discharge and water abstraction rights, including the evaluation of alternative pollution control strategies used to facilitate the analysis and implementation of the instrument. The DSS substantiates its analysis with the use of evolutionary algorithms for the optimization of water demand and wastewater discharge allocation. It intends to maximize the uses and minimize the costs of wastewater treatment measures, according to the limits imposed by the water quality standards. The evolutionary algorithms investigated in this study include Genetic Algorithms, Particle Swarm Optimization and Differential Evolution. Among the strategies considered for the issuing of water rights were the compliance with environmental legislation for wastewater discharge, the equality between water users, the water quality standards et by the water bodies classification, and the restrictions imposed by the responsible controlling agency. The SSD was evaluated on a case study area, at Atibaia River, located in the State of Sao Paulo. The Atibaia River was chosen because of the existence of innumerous conflicts of over water use and availability. It allows the assessment of the SSD performance, to different strategies, in a real case scenario. The SSDs results, using all three introduced algorithms, were satisfactory to the strategies analyzed, as they complied with the restrictions and penalties imposed to the objective function. Strategy one, with no restrictions or penalties, had the lowest overall cost of wastewater treatment measures, in comparison to strategy two, equity between water users, and three, compliance with Environmental Laws. This result is due to the fact that strategy one is less restrictive than the two others, and because of the best use of the available flow, in each respective reach, to dilute the wastewater discharge. The main objective of the proposed strategies is to evaluate the performance of the SSD in getting the results, as well as to analyze the flexibility of the algorithms when new restrictions and penalties are introduced in the decision making process. Water users, other stakeholders and the responsible controlling agency have an important role in the selection of suitable strategies and priorities of uses. Higher investments to implement water treatment measures may become necessary according to the strategy chosen. In addition, when a strategy is not well defined, it may cause unnecessary investments. The DSS proposed in this study represents an advance in water resources management. It involves important criteria and strategies used in the analysis of wastewater discharge and water abstraction rights, without disassociating water quality and quantity aspects as well as economic factors for its implementation.

O problema de escassez da água para o abastecimento humano vem se agravando a cada ano que passa. As demandas vem crescendo e precisam ser supridas da melhor maneira possível sob pena de limitar o processo de desenvolvimento regional. Para tanto, deve-se recorrer ao planejamento e gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos como forma de se promover ao seu uso racional. Descreve-se neste trabalho a implantação de um sistema de apoio ao planejamento e gerenciamento de recursos hídricos, dando uma maior ênfase ao modelo hidrológico distribuído utilizado para gerar as vazões na bacia hidrográfica. Avalia-se sua calibração e validação realizada com dados fluviométricos e de níveis de açudes. Apresentam-se os resultados de estudo de potencialidade da bacia hidrográfica, e por último as disponibilidades dos principais açudes. Todas estas etapas formam realizadas tendo sempre a visão especializada e integrada da bacia hidrográfica do rio do Peixe. / The problem of scarcity of water for human supply has increased each year. The needs have increased and must be fullfilled as satisfactory as possible. If not the development process ofthe region could be limited. In this way, we must use the planning and management of water resources to promote a rational use. This dissertation describes the implantation of a support system to the planning and management of water resources, focusing the hydrologic distributed model used to generate the inflows in the basin. The calibration and validation processes with sets of data formed by gauge stream go stations and reservoir levels are analyzed. The results of a study of the potentiality of the basin, and finally the availability of the mains reservoirs are presented. All this steps were made with a specialized and integrated view of the Peixe river basin.

Alguns dos problemas enfrentados pelas cidades que ainda sofrem com um crescimento rápido são, não raro, conseqüência da falta de políticas públicas que possam orientar o crescimento espacial de forma sustentável e com qualidade de vida. Há uma clara necessidade de instrumentos efetivos de controle e monitoramento da mobilidade urbana, bem como de políticas mais sustentáveis destinadas a orientar o crescimento e ordenamento espacial. Neste contexto, a elaboração de um sistema de suporte à decisão através de uma interface on-line pode proporcionar novas perspectivas para um planejamento da mobilidade mais participativo e sustentável. Assim, um dos objetivos desta pesquisa foi desenvolver uma ferramenta computacional destinada a promover um processo integrado e sustentável para elaboração e monitoramento de planos diretores de mobilidade urbana. A proposta focou no processo de tomada de decisão participativo envolvendo múltiplos segmentos da sociedade, sobretudo em cidades pequenas e médias. Outro objetivo foi verificar se, através da utilização do sistema proposto, os avaliadores (especialistas ou não-especialistas), modificariam significativamente seu nível de percepção com relação à mobilidade urbana. Para atingir a estes objetivos, a pesquisa foi dividida em duas fases. Inicialmente foi desenvolvido o sistema de suporte à decisão para internet, denominado PLANUTS - PLANejamento Urbano e de Transportes integrado e Sustentável. Este sistema é composto por quatro módulos de avaliação da mobilidade urbana e um módulo administrativo. O funcionamento da ferramenta proposta foi demonstrado, na prática, através de sua aplicação junto a um grupo de especialistas e não-especialistas em Bauru, cidade média localizada no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Com a aplicação foi possível simular etapas do desenvolvimento de um plano diretor de transporte e mobilidade participativo, com a definição de indicadores de mobilidade. A aplicação também foi útil para demonstrar a contribuição do sistema na mudança de percepção dos usuários com relação a questões que envolvem aspectos da mobilidade. Os resultados obtidos conduziram às seguintes conclusões: i) o sistema PLANUTS pode contribuir para a participação de diferentes segmentos da sociedade no processo de avaliação da mobilidade urbana; ii) a utilização do sistema possibilita uma ampliação no conhecimento e definição dos temas que envolvem a mobilidade urbana; e iii) é possível definir um conjunto de indicadores representativos dos problemas mais importantes de mobilidade com vistas a um sistema de indicadores de mobilidade no município. / Some of the problems faced by fast growing cities are often a consequence of the lack of public policies able to drive the spatial growth towards sustainable development and a better quality of life. There is a clear need of more effective tools for urban mobility monitoring and control, as well as sustainable policies for guiding urban growth and spatial distribution. In such a context, the construction of a web-based decision support system can produce new perspectives for mobility planning in a more participative and sustainable way. Therefore, one of the objectives of this research was to develop a computational tool for promoting an integrated and sustainable process of construction and management of mobility master plans. The focus of the proposal was on a participative decision-making process involving multiple segments of the society, mainly of small and medium-sized cities. Another objective of the research was to test if the use of the proposed system could significantly change the perception level of the participants (experts or non-experts) regarding urban mobility. In order to reach the stated objectives, the research was conducted in two phases. The first step was the development of the internet-based decision support system named PLANUTS (which stands for PLANnig Urban and Transportation integrated and Sustainable systems). It comprises four modules for the evaluation of urban mobility and one administrative module. The use of the proposed tool was shown, in practice, through an application with a group of experts and another one of non-experts in Bauru, which is a medium-sized city located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The application made possible to simulate some steps of the development of a participative mobility master plan, with the definition of mobility indicators. It was also useful for showing the contribution of the system in changing the users\' perception regarding mobility issues. The results obtained led to the following conclusions: i) PLANUTS can be used to allow the participation of distinct segments of the society in the evaluation of urban mobility; ii) the use of the system brings an improvement in the definition of the Themes and to the overall knowledge of urban mobility; and iii) it is possible to define a set of indicators associated to the most important mobility problems in order to build a system of urban mobility indicators to the municipality.

[pt] Face à complexidade da matriz energética brasileira e em particular de todo o sistema elétrico de potência interligado, torna-se imprescindível garantir que os equipamentos instalados, desde a geração até os consumidores finais, operem em condições satisfatórias e em elevados níveis de confiabilidade. De acordo com a reestruturação do setor e sua inserção em um mercado competitivo, além da elevada confiabilidade exigida, o novo conceito de disponibilidade dos equipamentos e sistemas impõe mais qualidade e planejamento no mercado de energia elétrica. Neste contexto, as empresas de energia elétrica preocupam-se cada vez mais em manter seus equipamentos em boas condições de operação para que tais metas sejam alcançadas. Entre os equipamentos elétricos de potência, os transformadores sem dúvida correspondem ao ativo de maior importância por serem os mais caros e complexos em termos funcionais. A Análise de Gases Dissolvidos no óleo mineral isolante (AGD) é uma ferramenta de diagnóstico de grande aceitação e potencial na detecção de faltas em equipamentos elétricos com isolação papel-óleo, sobretudo nos transformadores de potência. Com o objetivo de fornecer maiores subsídios aos gestores de manutenção na tomada de decisões quanto à intervenções em transformadores, o trabalho desenvolvido propõe um Sistema de Apoio à Decisão composto por um módulo de Inteligência Computacional (IC) que utiliza regras fuzzy para efetuar o diagnóstico do equipamento em conjunto com outro módulo de apoio à decisão que considera as características do transformador e outros parâmetros de influência, fornecendo, além do diagnóstico, recomendações para a tomada de decisão pelos gestores de manutenção. / [en] Given the complexity of the Brazilian energy matrix and in particular of the whole interconnected electrical power system, it is essential to ensure that the equipment, from generation to final consumers, operates in a satisfactory way and high levels of reliability. In accordance with the restructuring of the sector and its integration in a competitive market, in addition to the high reliability required, the new concept of availability of equipment and systems requires more planning and quality in the market of electrical energy. In this context, electrical power companies are increasingly concerned about maintaining their equipment in good operating conditions so that the above targets are attained. Within electrical equipments, power transformers are undoubtedly the most important asset, since they are the most expensive and complex in functional terms. Dissolved Gases Analysis in insulating mineral oil (DGA), is a widely accepted tool for detecting faults in electrical equipments with paper-oil insulation, particularly in power transformers. With the aim of providing more subsidies to maintenance managers when making decisions on interventions in power transformers, this work proposes a Decision Support System composed of a module of Computational Intelligence (CI) which uses fuzzy rules to diagnose the equipment, together with another decision-support module, which considers the power transformer features and other parameters in order to help managers in the decision making process.

<p>This thesis was aimed at the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based model to support the Rwanda Land Use and Development Master Plan. Developing sustainable land management is the main task of this master plan. Stakeholder’s involvement was of key importance. Their demands should be analysed and visualised to support discussions and the decision-making process. Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a proven method for land-use planning purposes. However, most land-use planning applications focus on a specific theme, such as urban development. In addition, land-use planning is often limited to a relatively small area. This thesis focused at the development of a countrywide GIS model, containing all land-uses accommodated in three main land-use categories: urban, agriculture and conservation. The GIS model was largely based on the Land-Use Conflict Identification Strategy (LUCIS) model. Many of the goals, objectives, and subobjectives that described the earlier mentioned land-use categories were adopted from the original model. However, a significant number of them were dropped, and new were created to suit the Rwandan situation. Stakeholder’s involvement was realized by assigning weights to the goals and preference maps. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used as weighting method. ESRI’s ArcGIS ModelBuilder was used to give the model shape in the GIS. Firstly, suitability maps were created of all elements in the model. The suitability maps were then transformed into preference maps by weighting them. In the next step the preference maps were collapsed in three classes: low, medium and high preference. Finally, the preference maps of the three land-use categories were combined, in order to visualize conflict areas. Ortho photos proved to be useful when acting as reference for the suitability and preference maps. Despite a large number of missing datasets, the GIS model was executed to simplify the understanding. However, many of the obtained results were unreliable because of the incompleteness of datasets, and can therefore not be used for decision-making.  Unfortunately, due to the stage of the project it was not possible to obtain weights from the stakeholders, and should therefore be done when the time is right. Right Choice DSS, a very user-friendly decision support application, was proposed to use for calculating weights. To conclude, the developed GIS model integrated countrywide land-use suitability mapping and stakeholders’ wishes that can be used for discussions and decision making.</p>

This thesis presents the framework of a complex business process driven event stream processing system to produce meaningful output with direct implications to the business objectives of an organization. This framework is demonstrated using a case study instantiating the management of a newborn infant with hypoglycaemia. Business processes defined within guidelines, are defined at build-time while critical knowledge found in the definition of business processes are used to support their enactment for stream analysis. Four major research contributions are delivered. The first contribution enables the definition and enactment of complex business processes in real-time. The second contribution supports the extraction of business process using knowledge found within the initial expression of the business process. The third contribution allows for the explicit use of temporal abstraction and stream analysis knowledge to support enactment in real-time. Finally, the last contribution is the real-time integration of heterogeneous streams based on Service-Oriented Architecture principles. / UOIT

Finding a product with high quality and reasonable price online is a difficult task due to the fuzzy nature of data and queries. In order to handle the fuzzy problem, a new type-2 fuzzy reasoning based decision support system, the Web Shopping Expert for online users is proposed. In the Web Shopping Expert, an interval type-2 fuzzy logic system is used and a fuzzy output can be obtained using the up-low limit technique, which offers an opportunity to directly employ all the rules and methods of the type-1 fuzzy sets onto the type-2 fuzzy sets. To achieve the best performance the fuzzy inference system is optimized by the least square and numerical method. The key advantages of the least square method are the efficient use of samples and the simplicity of the implementation. The Web Shopping Expert based on the interval type-2 fuzzy inference system provides more reasonable conclusions for online users.

Point-of-use (POU) and point-of-entry (POE) water treatment are forms of decentralized water treatment that are becoming increasingly sought alternatives for ensuring the safety of drinking water. Although the acceptance of POU and POE systems is still the subject of some debate, it is generally acknowledged that they have a role to play in drinking water treatment. However, some of the main drivers for the increase in the use of POU and POE alternatives include: (1) the emergence of new technologies with high removal efficiencies of target contaminants; (2) the enhanced certification system of POU and POE treatment devices and components which ensures that devices have been well engineered to achieve defined contaminant removal targets and do not add contaminants from materials of construction; (3) the inclusion of POU and POE systems as acceptable means to comply with drinking water standards; and (4) the concerns voiced by consumers in several surveys regarding the safety of centrally treated drinking water; which, regardless of whether or not these concerns are justified, have led to an increase in the use of POU and POE treatment systems. With the commercialization of these devices the task of selecting a suitable device for treatment has become cumbersome. When the inherent complexity of a particular drinking water treatment task is added to the mix, a complex decision making situation is created. Thus the need for designing a decision support tool to compare and select POU and POE treatment systems was evident. Currently the best decision aid for selecting POU and POE systems is NSF International’s listing of the devices and their contaminant reduction claims. A significant contribution of this research is the depiction of an appropriate conceptual framework for developing usable and valid decision support systems (DSSs) to select or design water or wastewater treatment systems. A thorough investigation of the methods used to develop DSSs benchmarked a systematic approach to developing DSSs, which includes the analysis of the treatment problem(s), knowledge acquisition and representation, and the identification and evaluation of criteria controlling the selection of optimal treatment systems. Finally, it was concluded that there is a need to develop integrated DSSs that are generic, user-friendly and employ a systems analysis approach. Another significant contribution of this research is applying a systems analysis approach to outline aspects of implementation, management, and governance of POU and POE water treatment systems. The analysis also included a timeline of the progress of POU and POE treatment from regulatory, industry and certification, and research perspectives. Results of the analysis were considered the first step of a conceptual framework for the sustainability assessment of POU and POE treatment systems which acts as the basis for developing a decision support system that will help select sustainable POU or POE treatment systems. In the context of POU and POE treatment, sustainability encompasses providing: (a) safe drinking water to help maintain good human health and hygiene; (b) minimum negative impact on the environment; (c) better use of human, natural, and financial resources; (d) a high degree of functional robustness and flexibility; and (e) cultural acceptance thus encouraging responsible behavior by the users. The most significant contribution of this research is developing, for the first time, a set of sustainability criteria, objectives, and quantifiable indicators to properly assess the sustainability of the various POU and POE alternatives. Twenty five quantitative and qualitative indicators covering technical, economic, environmental, and socio-cultural aspects of implementing a POU or a POE system were defined. Results of a survey of experts’ judgment on the effectiveness of the developed list of indicators generated 52 comments from 11 experts, which helped in refining and enhancing the list. The conceptual framework for assessing the sustainability of POU and POE systems represented a blueprint for building the decision support system. Decision logic and cognitive thinking was used to formulate the calculation of the 20 refined indicators. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a recognized Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool, was employed to construct the structural hierarchy of sustainability indicators. Pairwise comparison was used to help in the analysis of indicators' relative importance and develop the indicators’ weights. A survey was designed to develop the relative weights of the indicators based on the average response of 19 stakeholders to a series of pairwise comparison questions pertaining to the relative importance of the indicators. Finally, the practical contribution of this research is the development of, for the first time, a new Decision Support System for Selecting Sustainable POU and POE Treatment Systems (D4SPOUTS) suitable for a particular water treatment case. The MCDA technique explained above is combined with designed screening rules, constraints, and case characteristics to be applied to a knowledgebase of POU and POE treatment systems incorporated in the DSS. The components of the DSS were built using Microsoft® Excel® and Visual Basic® for Applications. The quality of the DSS and aspects of its usability, applicability, and sensitivity analysis are demonstrated through a hypothetical case study for lead removal from drinking water. This research is expected to assist water purveyors, consultants, and other stakeholders in selecting sustainable and cost effective POU and POE treatment systems.

Health and safety have been the most important concerns in waste management formany years. However, nowadays society demands that as well as being safe, waste managementmust also be sustainable. The management of a sustainable Municipal Solid Waste is anecessary but not-prioritized aspect of environmental management in most countries with lowand middle income.This study purposes an analysis of technologies, in order to select the best and mostsuitable practices in Sustainable Waste Management Systems already applied or in advancedlevel of research in developed and developing countries. The target countries for receiving thisstudy of waste system are located in Western Africa: Ghana, Côte d‟Ivoire, Senegal andNigeria.The analysis of collection, transportation, treatment and disposal of waste, with focus onorganic matter, was presented in two groups. The first group, “collection and transportation”was analysed with attention to aspects and stakeholders presented in the Integrated SustainableWaste Management framework. In the second group, “treatment and disposal”, each technologywas analysed based on aspects of sustainable development. The decision-support software Web-HIPRE was also used to frame the final rank of solutions for the African scenario.The conclusions for those analyses were that the creation of micro and small enterprisesand community based organizations for collection and transportation should strongly beencouraged. They generate not just new employment but awareness among the population aswell. As for the treatment and disposal of organic household waste, two promising technologiesare decentralized composting and home composting with plastic bins.