Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Cambridge, 1995. / Cover title. "December 1995." Includes bibliographical references.

Since its invention twenty years ago, the Delphi technique has been gaining wider and wider acceptance as a tool for forecasting technology; gathering expert opinion from a local to world wide "advice community" upon which government, industry, and other policy making bodies must so frequently rely; and providing judgmental input for studies (e. g., social sciences) where hard data are unavailable or too difficult to obtain. Accompanying this increased acceptance is an increased danger of manipulation of a Delphi to produce the results desired by one certain individual or group of individuals. Manipulation is increasingly being mentioned in the literature as a danger but little has been done to study the problem. Two groups of thirty United States Air Force Officers enrolled in a Masters of Business Administration program participated in a fact probing Delphi containing thirty statements. The participants of one group were given falsified statistical feedback on fifteen of the statements, while the participants of the other group were given falsified statistical feedback on the other fifteen statements. A similar study was done with another group of officers using a value probing Delphi. The results of these studies showed a high degree of success in obtaining a desired value through the use of manipulated statistical feedback. This success was enhanced by running additional rounds. It was also found that the statistical manipulation had a significant effect on the convergence and stability of the Delphi statements. The effects of statistical manipulation on confidence as measured by self-rating was also studied. It was found that there was a significant tendency for Delphi participants to shift their selfrating during later rounds toward the middle. The effect of the distance between a participant's original estimate and the median reported back to him on the amount the participant changed his self-rating was investigated. The results were inconsistent. Statistically manipulated participants showed an overall decrease in confidence, regardless of their original self-rating. Suggestions for extending the research in the area of manipulation of Delphi statements plus a taxonomy of the variables that comprise the problem of manipulation are discussed.

The first purpose of this study was to describe and illustrate a modification of the Delphi technique that was designed to identify future personal attributes and job competencies needed to help update requirements for the year 2006 needed by the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) nursing middle manager, the registered nurse manager, as perceived by the DSHS subject matter experts. The subject matter experts consisted of a group of registered nurses holding leadership positions in the DSHS, State Hospital Section. The second purpose was to determine a consensus of future personal attributes and job competencies developed from the responses of the DSHS subject matter experts. For the last purpose of this study, using the findings of the future personal attributes and job competencies identified through this study, DSHS would have a tool to develop a model to guide hiring decisions and initial training. Additionally, the hiring and initial training model could also serve to assist in developing a content model for future in-service and continuing education training. The modified Delphi technique used in this study was comparable to the complete Delphi technique in terms of approach, for example, using a sequence of rounds with chosen experts and objectives to predict future events and to arrive at consensus. For this study, the foremost modification of the Delphi technique consisted of beginning the process with a set of 28 thoroughly selected personal attributes and job competencies clusters that the panel could use as a guide for personal attributes and job competencies selection. These pre-selected personal attributes and job competencies clusters were drawn from various sources including related competency profiles, job descriptions, and synthesized reviews of the literature. The approach consisted of a 15-member expert panel of 10 nurse managers and 5 chief nurse executives currently working within and representing the 11 facilities of the DSHS, State Hospital Section. The panel members were nominated by the nursing director of the State Hospital Section of the Texas Department of State Health Services. The panel completed three rounds of the Delphi process, identifying 24 personal attributes and job competencies clusters.

published_or_final_version / Education / Master / Master of Education

No description available.

No description available.

Thesis--West Virginia University. / Spine title: The Delphi method of forecasting to nursing education planning in West Virginia. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 126-129).

Thesis (M. Ed.)--University of Hong Kong, 1982.

No description available.

Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2008. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains ix, 142 p. : ill. (some col.), col. map. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 116-120).