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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

The effect of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy

Embergenov, Bakhitbay January 1900 (has links)
Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / The traditional view of oil price movements is that they represent exogenous changes in the supply of oil. In that case, oil price increases will hurt output. Recently, some have questioned whether oil price increases are actually due to higher demand for oil, in which case higher oil prices will be followed by higher output. This thesis develops a model that allows changes in the price of oil to have different effects depending on whether the price of oil and output growth are moving in the same direction (so that the increase in the price of oil was primarily due to an increase in the demand for oil) or in the opposite direction (so that the increase in the price of oil was primarily due to an oil supply shock). The paper presents three sets of results. First, we present the model results for the 1965-2008 time period. Then we look at the 1986-2008 period separately. Finally, we construct a forecasting model for the U.S. industrial production index. The model developed does not require making identifying assumptions and can be used with the data that is available on the internet, and is well understood. Maximum likelihood estimation, which is commonly used for non-linear estimation, is used to estimate the model. We find in-sample evidence in favor of our new model for the 1986-2008 subsample. The new model is unable to provide better out-of-sample forecasts for the 1986-2008 time period.
2

The effect of technology and demand shocks on structural and industrial dynamics. Evidence from Austrian manufacturing.

Hölzl, Werner, Reinstaller, Andreas January 2004 (has links) (PDF)
In this paper we analyse the influence of sector specific developments in productivity and demand on net entry and employment in 19 industrial sectors of the Austrian economy. Based on the model of structural dynamics of Pasinetti, we develop an identification scheme that allows us to extract technology and demand shocks, by means of a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model with long-run restrictions. We study the patterns of productivity and demand shocks across industries by means of a principal components analysis and find that sectoral and macro-economic developments in demand strongly correlate, while this is not the case for technology shocks. Impulse-response analysis shows that for almost all sectors productivity growth rates experience an immediate increase to positive technology shocks while the hours worked decline as conjectured by Pasinetti. Finally, we use the identified shocks as explanatory variables in time-series cross-section regressions on net-entry and employment data. Both types of shocks are able to explain dynamics on the industry level in terms of employment and sales but not firm dynamics. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"
3

DETERMINANTES DA COTONICULTURA BRASILEIRA E OS EFEITOS DOS CHOQUES DE OFERTA E DEMANDA, DE 1990 A 2013 / DETERMINANTS OF COTTON PRODUCTION BRAZILIAN AND THE EFFECTS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND SHOCKS, FROM 1990 TO 2013

Buhse, Ana Paula 03 March 2015 (has links)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The general purpose of this work is to analyze the general determinants of cotton production and the evolution of Brazilian cotton production from 1990 to 2013. Period in which the sector has undergone changes, and trade liberalization and deregulation in the market resulted in the entry of the foreign product with the highest quality causing crisis in the production of Brazilian cotton. However, with further technological incentives in the late 1990s it was possible to increase the commodity productivity resulting in the recovery, making the country among the leading manufacturers and exporters in the 2000s. To make the analysis was utilized the theoretical model of Blanchard and Quah (1989), but adapted by Barros et al. (2006) for agriculture and Alves, Barros e Bacchi (2008) for cotton. The results showed that it is the supply shocks (area and productivity) contributing to explain the export variations, averaging 40% of changes in exports is explained by area, with a significant contribution because the variable itself accounts for about 38% of its variations, and the variable productivity explains around 5%. Compared with the growth of production, it follows that the domestic price and productivity explain about 30% and 8% from the fourth year, respectively. Finally, we have as a conclusion that you need a period of adjustment to the decision to plant or not, taking into account the area, production and past prices and / or prospects for the next harvest. / O objetivo geral da dissertação é analisar os determinantes gerais da cotonicultura e a evolução da produção brasileira de algodão a partir de 1990 até 2013. Período no qual o setor passou por transformações, sendo que a abertura comercial e desregulamentação no mercado resultaram na entrada do produto externo com maior qualidade causando crise na produção de algodão brasileira. Porém, com maiores incentivos tecnológicos, no final da década de 1990, foi possível aumentar a produtividade da commodity resultando na recuperação transformando o país entre os principais produtores e exportadores na década de 2000. Para fazer a análise foi utilizado o modelo teórico de Blanchard e Quah (1989), porém adaptado por Barros et al. (2006) para a agricultura e por Alves, Barros e Bacchi (2008) para o algodão. Os resultados apontaram que são os choques de oferta (área e produtividade) que contribuíram para explicar variações da exportação, sendo em média 40% das variações das exportações é explicada pela área, sendo significativa a contribuição, pois a própria variável explica aproximadamente 38%, e a variável produtividade explica cerca de 5%. Em relação ao crescimento da produção, tem-se que o preço interno e a produtividade explicam aproximadamente 30% e 8% a partir do quarto ano, respectivamente. Por fim, tem-se como conclusão que é necessário um período de ajustamento para a decisão de plantar ou não, levando em consideração a área, produção e os preços passados e/ou perspectivas para a safra seguinte.
4

SAGGI SUI MERCATI IMMOBILIARI E IL CICLO MACROECONOMICO / ESSAYS ON HOUSING AND THE MACROECONOMY

CESA BIANCHI, AMBROGIO 17 May 2013 (has links)
La recente crisi finanziaria e la recessione che ne e' seguita hanno spinto molti a guardare al mercato immobiliare come ad una possibile fonte di fluttuazioni macroeconomiche. Inoltre, esse hanno evidenziato il ruolo cruciale dei paesi emergenti per la crescita globale e rianimato il dibattito sulla relazione tra politica monetaria e il prezzo degli asset. Questa tesi di dottorato, composta di tre saggi, si incentra sui mercati immobiliari dei paesi industrializzati e emergenti nonché sulla relazione tra i prezzi delle case e il ciclo macroeconomico. Il primo saggio descrive un data set originale di prezzi delle case per 19 paesi emergenti (con frequenza trimestrale e aggiornato al 2009:4) e li confronta con un data set esistente per 21 paesi industrializzati. Il secondo saggio studia la trasmissione internazionale di shock di domanda immobiliare negli Stati Uniti e il loro impatto sull'economia reale. Il terzo saggio analizza la relazione tra politica monetaria e macro-prudenziale in un semplice modello di asset-pricing. / The recent global financial crisis and ensuing recession led many to look at the housing market as a possible source of macroeconomic fluctuations, highlighted the crucial role played by emerging market economies as a source of world growth, and revived the much discussed issue of the interaction between monetary policy and asset prices volatility. Motivated by these issues, my Ph.D. thesis focuses on housing markets in both advanced and emerging economies and their interaction with the macroeconomy. This dissertation consists of three self-contained essays. The first essay describes a novel dataset on house prices for 19 emerging economies with quarterly data updated to 2009:4, to be compared with an existing database for 21 advanced economies. The second essay investigates the international spillovers of U.S. housing demand shocks across housing markets and their impact on real economic activity. The third essay studies the uncharted interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policies in a simple model of consumption-based asset pricing with collateralized borrowing.
5

[pt] RENT-SHARING, DESIGUALDADE SALARIAL DE GÊNERO E FIRMAS CHEFIADAS POR MULHERES / [en] RENT-SHARING, GENDER WAGE INEQUALITY AND FEMALE-LED FIRMS

CATERINA SOTO VIEIRA 03 September 2020 (has links)
[pt] A desigualdade salarial de gênero tem sido amplamente estudada e há muitas explicações. Há evidências crescentes de que as empresas desempenham um papel importante na explicação dessa desigualdade. Neste artigo, utilizo um ambiente único onde firmas sofrem choques de demanda exógenos, a fim de identificar se há evidência de rent-sharing pelas empresas e se o efeito difere entre trabalhadores homens e mulheres. Controlando pela qualidade dos trabalhadores, encontro que um aumento no valor do choque de demanda não leva a aumentos salariais. Os choques de demanda não afetam os salários de homens nem de mulheres e portanto, tampouco afeta a desigualdade salarial de gênero. Além disso, uso um novo conjunto de dados que contém informações sobre o gênero do dono da empresa e examino se as empresas lideradas por mulheres e por homens se comportam de maneira diferente em relação a seus empregados. Não encontro nenhuma evidência de que firmas lideradas por homens ou mulheres diferem com relação a rent-sharing. / [en] Gender wage inequality has been widely studied and many explanations have been advanced in the literature. There is growing evidence that firms play an important role in explaining this inequality. In this paper, I make use of a unique setting with exogenous demand shocks to firms to identify if there is evidence of rent-sharing by firms and whether it differs between male and female workers. Controlling for worker quality, I find that increases in the value of the demand shock per worker do not lead to increases in wages. Demand shocks do not have effects on neither male nor female wages. Furthermore, I use a new dataset containing information on gender of firm s owner and I examine if female and male-led firms behave differently towards their employees. I find no evidence of differential rent-sharing through the structure of the firms ownership.

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