<p>Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.</p>

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

abstract: Remote sensing has demonstrated to be an instrumental tool in monitoring land changes as a result of anthropogenic change or natural disasters. Most disaster studies have focused on large-scale events with few analyzing small-scale disasters such as tornadoes. These studies have only provided a damage assessment perspective with the continued need to assess reconstruction. This study attempts to fill that void by examining recovery from the 1999 Moore, Oklahoma Tornado utilizing Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Recovery was assessed for 2000, 2001 and 2002 using spectral enhancements (vegetative and urban indices and a combination of the two), a recovery index and different statistical thresholds. Classification accuracy assessments were performed to determine the precision of recovery and select the best results. This analysis proved that medium resolution imagery could be used in conjunction with geospatial techniques to capture recovery. The new indices, Shortwave Infrared Index (SWIRI) and Coupled Vegetation and Urban Index (CVUI), developed for disaster management, were the most effective at discerning reconstruction using the 1.5 standard deviation threshold. Recovery rates for F-scale damages revealed that the most incredibly damaged areas associated with an F5 rating were the slowest to recover, while the lesser damaged areas associated with F1-F3 ratings were the quickest to rebuild. These findings were consistent for 2000, 2001 and 2002 also exposing that complete recovery was never attained in any of the F-scale damage zones by 2002. This study illustrates the significance the biophysical impact has on recovery as well as the effectiveness of using medium resolution imagery such as Landsat in future research. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.A. Geography 2011

Magister Artium - MA / The extent of a community experiencing social vulnerability depends on the community’s ability to access resources that may contribute to coping mechanisms (either within the household or provided externally by a responsible authority) that decrease the impacts and effects of a disaster. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to identify the existence of social and institutional mechanisms that aim to reduce experiences of water inaccessibility and the causes of social vulnerability, and increase coping mechanisms within Kayamandi. Kayamandi is a low income residential community on the north-westerly periphery of the greater Stellenbosch town in the Western Cape. The research attained responses through questionnaires and surveys from residents,community organisations and responsible personnel. These surveys allowed the researcher to produce raw attribute data for each household that assisted in spatially representing vulnerable households and informing the five priority areas of the Hyogo Framework for Action. Contributing to this method of attaining information, secondary geographic data collection was obtained through the Stellenbosch Local Municipality, the National Geospatial Information Directorate and the National Demarcation Board. The findings of this thesis established that household and public water infrastructure contribute to the risk of experiencing social vulnerability that affects economic standings and quality of health within the community. Contributing to this and due to Kayamandi’s politically sensitive and historically fractioned community, social cohesion has also been noted as an area of vulnerability. Although these vulnerabilities are experienced, residents are able to implement technical, social and municipal reliant coping mechanisms. However, although efforts from Stellenbosch Local Municipality do respond to most of the key indicators within the Hyogo Framework for Action, the study found no concrete efforts within the Stellenbosch Local Municipality that illustrate integrated mechanisms to reduce the impacts of disasters and compound effects.

Each disaster presents itself with a unique set of characteristics that are hard to determine a priori. Thus disaster management tasks are inherently uncertain, requiring knowledge sharing and quick decision making that involves coordination across different levels and collaborators. While there has been an increasing interest among both researchers and practitioners in utilizing knowledge management to improve disaster management, little research has been reported about how to assess the dynamic nature of disaster management tasks, and what kinds of knowledge sharing are appropriate for different dimensions of task uncertainty characteristics. Using combinations of qualitative and quantitative methods, this research study developed the dimensions and their corresponding measures of the uncertain dynamic characteristics of disaster management tasks and tested the relationships between the various dimensions of uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks and task performance through the moderating and mediating effects of knowledge sharing. Furthermore, this research work conceptualized and assessed task uncertainty along three dimensions: novelty, unanalyzability, and significance; knowledge sharing along two dimensions: knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms; and task performance along two dimensions: task effectiveness and task efficiency. Analysis results of survey data collected from Miami-Dade County emergency managers suggested that knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms moderate and mediate uncertain dynamic disaster management task and task performance. Implications for research and practice as well directions for future research are discussed.

Background: Climate change is a significant factor shaping the planet and changing the pattern of disasters which leads to direct and indirect consequences. The result is a huge amount of affected people who rely on humanitarian aid. The satisfaction of this need is the responsibility of disaster management. Only little research about the relation of disaster management and climate change was done so far but would be of utmost importance as climate change is one main obstacle for efficient humanitarian work and disaster management design, in return, affects the resilience and vulnerability of disaster-prone areas. Purpose: This thesis paper investigates the interconnectedness of climate change and disaster management. It has the purpose to explore how humanitarian actors in the scientific and operational sector of disaster management experience the impact of climate change and which preventive adaptation strategies they identify to cope with climate-related challenges. Method: The methodology is based on a relativistic ontology and follows social constructionism as epistemology. A multiple case study within the scope of a qualitative inductive approach was conducted by contrasting scientific and operational experts’ opinions about the role of climate change in the disaster management context. Primary data were gathered in the form of semi-structured interviews by applying the typical case sampling. The selected method of data analysis is the content analysis approach. Conclusion: The results show that climate change consequences can be determined as a highly relevant factor shaping disaster management by intensifying general disaster management challenges. To adjust to this development, adaptation strategies have to be established and should follow a holistic approach. The main adaptation strategies identified are localization, forecast-based financing and superior data analysis in combination with enhanced information management showing major effects if applied within prevention and preparedness. Restricting factors in adaptation are lacking resources, coordination and communication problems and an insufficient flexibility level of systems and tools. Technology application, data analysis and forecasting, as well as lessons learnt instead can be seen as facilitating factors to overcome the challenges and barriers.

In February 2022 the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) published a report indicating that wildfires may become more frequent as climate changes keeps progressing. The last few years we have witnessed devastating consequences due to wildfires around the world. In 2014 Sweden was affected by one of the biggest wildfires in modern history when a total of 15 000 hectares burned down. This study investigates how municipalities in Sweden work with crisis management against wildfires. Data was collected in a questionnaire sent out to municipalities as a web-survey. The questionnaire included questions about the municipality´s ability to handle a higher frequency of wildfires and if their risk and vulnerability analysis includes wildfires. The overall response rate was 52 % (151/290) and more than half of the municipalities answered that wildfires are included in their risk and vulnerability analysis, and they think they can manage a higher frequency of wildfires. It was not possible to identify a difference in crisis management between small (&lt;16 000) and large (&gt;16 000) municipalities, and municipalities located in the southern and northern parts of Sweden, respectively. What can be seen as worrying is that there are municipalities that do not have the capacity to handle an increase in wildfires. Economics are named one of the main reasons municipalities do not prioritize these issues. Due to the development with rising temperatures and more frequent wildfires in the world, forest fires will probably be a topical research area onwards.

Doctor Educationis / President Cyril Ramaphosa first addressed the nation regarding the Covid-19 pandemic on the 15th of March 2020, when he announced the national state of disaster in terms of the Disaster Management Act (DMA) to prevent the rise of Covid-19 infections.1 On the 23rd of March 2020 in his second address, the President announced a national Lockdown, initially for 21 days, and outlined more stringent interventions to limit the transmission of the coronavirus and to mitigate its economic and social impact.2 Since then, there have been at least four sets of directions issued to the provinces and municipalities in terms of the Disaster Management Act, with the first set of directions to provinces and municipalities taking effect on the 25th of March 2020. The purpose of the directions issued to municipalities were to direct municipalities in respect of the following matters in response to Covid-19 namely, the provision of water and sanitation services, hygiene education, communication, and awareness. For the purposes of this research, the word coronavirus will be used interchangeably with Covid-19. The first set of directions titled ‘COGTA COVID-19 Disaster Response Directions 2020’ took effect on the 25th of March 2020.3 The directions stipulated that no council meetings outside the District Command Centre meetings may be undertaken during the initial 21 Day Lockdown period, or any other extended period that may be declared. Since then, there have been amendments to these directions. The directions which commenced on the 3rd of July 2020, as far as local governance is concerned, stated that municipalities and municipal entities could convene council meetings.

Law enforcement needs simulation practice tailored to de-escalation skills. Law enforcement officers spend most of their training time practicing how to use force appropriately and very little time practicing how to avoid using force. There is little research into the best ways for law enforcement to reduce their use of force and the best ways to provide training to individuals to coach them to avoid using force. There are many training programs promoting de-escalation techniques, but there is little research into the effectiveness of these programs beyond the ability of individuals to perform the skills that are trained. There is little to show that using these skills reduces crime, reduces the need for incarceration, reduces the level of violence, or improves the communities where they are used. The scope of this project addresses a small part of this gap by examining different ways simulators can be used to provide practice in the skills that are taught. This dissertation contributes to the field of simulation by demonstrating how virtual reality can address deficits in law enforcement training. It does so by studying which techniques are most appropriate in some scenarios and how to better train officers to use them. This project looks at different ways of allowing police officers to practice de-escalation skills to see if these have any bearing on an officer's approach to de-escalation and if the officer responds positively to the practice. This research does not attempt to take the next step of measuring the use of these skills outside the training environment. The results indicate active-duty officers have a positive response to any attempt to practice or promote de-escalation and are especially positive about the potential for training in realistic, situationally appropriate virtual environments.

The objective of study is to identify and evaluate the role of the ecotourism business in building community resilience in disaster-vulnerable areas. This dissertation analyzed how an ecotourism business is being managed and examined what contributions the ecotourism business has made to community resiliency in disaster vulnerable areas. In the process of these examination, policies in disaster management, tourism (general policies) and ecotourism in the Philippines has been reviewed. Furthermore, case studies have been examined, a community and a government managed ecotourism business. The cases were analyzed using the "Resilience Indicators for Vulnerable Communities Engaging in Ecotourism." / 博士(グローバル社会研究) / Doctor of Philosophy in Global Society Studies / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University