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This work builds on the use of several Mathematical Modeling tools to develop approaches that address relevant, real and previously unanswered questions related to the improvement of Public Health Systems, in three particular instances. First, this thesis analyzes the variation in state-level vaccination coverage during the emergency response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza outbreak in the United States. The analysis considers the overall adults population and two priority sub-populations: children and high-risk adults. We focus on quantifying the association between vaccination coverage and the supply chain and distribution system decisions, during the vaccine shortage period, while controlling for other commonly recognized factors such as previous vaccinations, socio-economic characteristics, health seeking behavior and health infrastructure. The variables analyzed are generally correlated, and the problem has a limited sample size with a much larger number of independent variables. The findings of this research have been published in Vaccine and presented to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Second, the research approaches the problem of estimating childhood obesity prevalence in small geographic areas in the U. S. Obesity is recognized as one of the major health problems in the country, and attending this condition in children is of major importance to deal with the sources of the overall problem. The ability to target interventions to the most affected children populations is necessary to achieve cost effective solutions. But local accurate obesity data is hard to obtain and missing for most of the small areas in the country. The research focuses on estimating prevalence of obesity and overweight status in children in small geographical areas in the absence of surveillance and detailed sampling. Our modeling approach is built in two stages. The first one uses a logistic regression model that links individual characteristics to high-BMI status, and generates samples of the empirical distribution of its coefficients though bootstrap re-sampling. The second uses simulation to generate virtual population samples of the small areas, which are then combined with the logistic model samples to estimate prevalence. Confidence intervals are built though re-sampling. A very important feature of our approach is that all of its inputs are from publicly available data, which gives availability for the replication of the methodology to any health stakeholder in the US. The model estimates were validated by using separate models for adults and children in a state with available data. Estimates obtained from our modeling approach were used by a large healthcare provider to geographically target interventions for pediatric obesity. Third, the thesis presents an introductory analysis of the possible effects of partial disruptions to critical supply chains due to absenteeism caused by a generalized flu-like illness in the US. For this analysis, we first construct a plausible national food supply chain for milk and then we simulate its disruption. To build the supply chain we used public information regarding production, consumption, and major milk processors and bottlers, and fitted it into a supply network though optimization. Then, to analyze the effects of flow disruptions of the supply chain, we built a simulation of the operation of the network and virtually generated absenteeism, mildly disrupting the supply chain flows by the proportional absences. We used information on potential absenteeism in work groups from an influenza simulator. Our initial analysis shows that absenteeism may create variations along the supply chain, similar to those described in the bullwhip effect analysis literature, even in the absence of supply shortages and without variations in pricing or demand, for which we find no prior reference in the literature.

There is a paucity of literature evaluating mass casualty systems and no clear 'gold standard' for measuring the efficacy of information decision support systems or triage systems that can be used in mass casualty events. The purpose of this research was the preliminary validation of a comprehensive conceptual model for a mass casualty continuum of care. This research examined key relationships among entities/factors needed to provide real-time visibility of data that track patients, personnel, resources and potential hazards that influence outcomes of care during mass casualty events.A modified Delphi technique was used to validate the proposed model using a panel of experts. The four research questions measured the extent to which experts agreed that the: 1) ten constructs represent appropriate predictors of outcomes of care during mass casualty events; 2) proposed relationships among the constructs provide valid representations of mass casualty triage; 3) proposed indicators for each construct represent appropriate measurements for the constructs; and 4) the proposed model is seen as useful to the further study of information and technology requirements during mass casualty events. The usefulness of the online Delphi process was also evaluated.A purposeful sample of 18 experts who work in the field of emergency preparedness/response was selected from across the United States. Computer, Internet and email applications were used to facilitate a modified Delphi technique through which experts provided initial validation for the proposed conceptual model. Two rounds of the Delphi process were needed to satisfy the criteria for consensus and/or stability related to the constructs, relationships and indicators in the model. Experts viewed the proposed model as relatively useful (Mean = 5.3 on a 7-point scale). Experts rated the online Delphi process favorably.Constructs, relationships and indicators presented in this model are viewed as preliminary. Future research is needed to develop the tools to measure the constructs and then test the model as a framework for studying effects and outcomes of mass casualty events. This study provides a foundation for understanding the complex context in which mass casualty events take place and the factors that influence outcomes of care.

Nesta investigação analisamos a visão dos gerentes das Unidades Básicas de Saúde (UBS) a cerca da problemática da Tuberculose (TB) em um município do interior do Estado de São Paulo. Participaram do estudo 14 gerentes de UBS, sendo a coleta dos dados realizada por meio de entrevista que enfocava a TB na agenda municipal, foi aplicado um questionário fechado e ao final deste uma questão aberta, que permitiu aos sujeitos manifestarem livremente as dificuldades no controle da TB no âmbito da gerência local. A entrevista se deu após o consentimento livre e esclarecido. Para o tratamento dos dados utilizamos o Programa Statística 8.0 da Statsoft, e, por meio deste, elaboramos tabelas de freqüência simples e para os dados qualitativos, utilizamos a técnica de análise de conteúdo, modalidade temática, surgindo três categorias temáticas: 1) A gerência da UBS no controle da TB: um campo de desafios; 2) Ações gerenciais do controle da TB na Atenção Básica (AB): potencialidades e limites; 3) O Controle da TB na AB: a visão gerencial. Os sujeitos do estudo atuam a mais de cinco anos na função de gerentes e a maioria deles toma a TB como uma doença prioritária no quadro sanitário local, de forma que, 81,3% deles a considera como doença prioritária no quadro sanitário do município, e apenas 12,5% expõem que, às vezes, a consideram prioritária. Quanto à participação deles na discussão e definição de ações para o controle da TB no município mais de 50% participam às vezes ou quase nunca, nos permitindo refletir o quão estes gerentes estão imbuídos desta temática. Observamos que há pontualidade do enfoque da TB na AB, ou seja, nas campanhas e semana da TB. Essa característica de focalização das ações, presente nas falas dos sujeitos remete a cultura presente na organização dos sistemas locais de saúde, refletindo no campo do planejamento. A demora no diagnóstico foi relatada pelos gerentes, fazendo com que o doente retorne várias vezes à unidade de saúde em busca de uma solução para seus sintomas. Somado à demora o estigma é algo aparece na fala dos sujeitos e necessita ser trabalhado, uma vez que ambos implicam diretamente no planejamento e organização das ações do controle da TB na AB. Os dados nos mostram que 50% dos gestores não participam e/ou não sabem em relação à definição de linhas específicas para a TB, no repasse de recursos para o município. A subnotificação é uma preocupação apontada pelos gerentes que possuem pouco conhecimento do Programa de Controle da Tuberculose (PCT), bem como, dos casos de TB de sua área de abrangência. Nos seus depoimentos fica explícito uma gerência técnico-burocrática, com debilidades nas dimensões do planejamento e na organização das atividades da UBS que gerenciam. Assim, os gerentes assistenciais do contexto sanitário estudado necessitam recompor aspectos da gerência, como o planejamento e a organização como formas de viabilizar a política de controle da TB, de acordo com os preceitos jurídico-legais e as normatizações inerentes ao PCT. / In this study we analyzed the view of Basic Health Unit (BHU) managers about the Tuberculosis (TB) issue in a city in the interior of São Paulo state. Fourteen BHU managers participated in the study. Data collection took place through interviews that focused on TB in the municipal agenda. A closed questionnaire was administered, and, at the end, an open question was also applied, which allowed for subjects to freely express the difficulties to control TB in the scope of local management. The interview was carried out after obtaining free and informed consent. Data analysis was performed using the Statsoft software Statística 8.0, which was also used to create simple frequency tables, and thematic content analysis was used for the qualitative data. Thus, three thematic categories emerged: 1) Managing the BHU in TB control: a field of challenges; 2) Managerial actions for TB control in Primary Care (PC); strengths and limits; 3) TB Control in PC: the managerial view. The study subjects have worked as managers for over five years and most consider TB a priority disease in the local health setting. In fact, 81.3% of them consider it a priority disease in the municipal health setting, and only 12.5% state that they sometimes consider it a priority. As to their participation in the discussion and definition oft TB control actions in the city, over 50% sometimes or almost never participate. This shows how deep these managers are imbued with this theme. We observed that TB is strongly focused in PC, i.e., in the campaigns and TB week. This characteristic of focusing on actions, present in the subjects statements, recalls the present culture of the local health system organization, having an effect on the field of planning. Managers reported there is a delay in diagnosis, which implies that the patient comes back several times to the health unit searching for a solution to his or her symptoms. In addition to that delay, subjects also state the stigma, which also needs to be solved since both have a direct effect on the planning and organization of TB control actions in PC. The data show that 50% of the managers do not participate and/or do not know about the definition of specific lines for TB, in terms of transferring resources in the municipality. Underreported cases are a concern pointed out by managers who have little knowledge about the Tuberculosis Control Program (TCP), as well as TB cases in their area. Their statements clearly state a technicalbureaucratic management, deficient in the activity planning and organization dimensions at the BHU they manage. Hence, health care managers in the studied context need to recompose management aspects like planning and organization as ways to make the TB control policy feasible according to the legal precepts and regulations inherent in the TCP.

INTRODUÇÃO: Promulgadas em 2000 as Metas de Desenvolvimento do Milênio destacam-se internacionalmente como importante política de cooperação para o desenvolvimento. Resultado do empenho da Organização das Nações Unidas caracteriza-se como uma tentativa de diminuir as disparidades sociais e econômicas no início do século XXI. Constituída por oito Metas, com prazo final para cumprimento em 2015. O objetivo 8.E da oitava Meta é definido como a cooperação com a indústria farmacêutica e visa, proporcionar o acesso a medicamentos essenciais com preços acessíveis nos países em desenvolvimento. OBJETIVOS: descreveu-se por meio das recomendações dos Relatórios da ONU o progresso do Objetivo 8.E e as políticas públicas de saúde no Brasil, Cuba e México. METODOLOGIA O estudo caracterizou-se por um estudo de caso descritivo e exploratório realizado por meio do estudo das recomendações governamentais estabelecidas nos relatórios da ONU relativos ao Objetivo 8.E, no período de 2000 a 2012, de documentos oficiais dos três países estudados e de revisão de literatura sobre o assunto. RESULTADOS: verificou-se que as propostas estabelecidas nos Relatórios da ONU para garantia do acesso a medicamentos apresentaram-se como políticas públicas nacionais executadas por meio dos sistemas de saúde dos três países estudados antes da promulgação das Metas do Milênio. CONSIDERAÇÕES FINAIS: em âmbito internacional As Metas do Milênio apresentam importância na cooperação para o desenvolvimento internacional observou-se, contudo, que os sistemas de saúde, existentes nos países estudados, apresentaram papel fundamental na política de acesso a medicamentos essenciais e, decorrentemente, no cumprimento das recomendações estabelecidas para os Estados-membros do Objetivo 8.E de forma independente do financiamento e estratégias de cooperação internacional / INTRODUCTION : Enacted in 2000, the Millennium Development Goals stand out internationally as an important development cooperation policy . Resulting of the commitment of the United Nations they are characterized as an attempt to reduce social and economic disparities in the XXI century . Composed of eight goals , with deadline for compliance in 2015 . The Target 8.E of the eighth Goal is defined as in cooperation with the pharmaceutical industry to provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries . OBJECTIVES : describe by means of the recommendations of the UN reports progress on the Target 8.E and public health policies in Brazil , Cuba and Mexico. METHODOLOGY The study was characterized by a descriptive case study and exploratory study conducted by the governmental recommendations set out in the UN reports relating to Target 8.E in the period from 2000 to 2012 , the official documents of the three countries studied and literature review on the subject . RESULTS : we found that the proposals set out in UN reports for ensuring access to medicines presented as national public policies were implemented by health systems of the three countries studied prior to the enactment of the Millennium Goals . CONCLUSION : internationally, the Millennium Goals have importance in development cooperation, however was noted that the health systems in the countries studied , displayed major role in access to essential medicines and so forth in compliance with the recommendations established for the Member States of the Objective 8.E independently of international financing and international cooperation strategies

Introdução O desenvolvimento das Relações Internacionais como disciplina a fez abarcar estudos de integração regional, cooperação internacional e, mais recentemente, saúde. O processo de globalização e uma maior interação entre os países culminaram na criação de blocos regionais de cooperação, sendo um exemplo expoente na América do Sul a União das Nações Sul-Americanas - UNASUL. Cooperação em saúde global por meio de convergência política dentro dos blocos é possível, e para isso é necessário o conhecimento dos sistemas de saúde de cada país. O Brasil, dentro da tradição de sua política externa e da defesa da Diplomacia da Saúde Global, busca cooperar com os países da UNASUL em questões de saúde. Objetivos - Descrever a ação de Organizações Internacionais e sua atuação em saúde; descrever ações de cooperação em saúde do Brasil; identificar aspectos contextuais dos sistemas de saúde e da cooperação internacional em saúde da Bolívia e da Venezuela. Métodos O procedimento metodológico é qualitativo. Dentro dos métodos possíveis, utilizou-se o descritivo e a pesquisa histórica. A descrição foi utilizada nos dois países estudados para caracterizar seus sistemas de saúde, e a pesquisa histórica, para entender os processos de reforma desses sistemas. Resultados Organizações Internacionais trabalham de diferentes formas a saúde, mas sempre a relacionando com o objetivo principal da instituição. OMS e Banco Mundial são as organizações que mais lidam com o tema. O Brasil, na década de 90, começou a debater sobre saúde em conferências internacionais, e desde os anos 2000 amplia sua cooperação em saúde com países africanos, asiáticos e latinoamericanos. Também estimula o debate da saúde no MERCOSUL e na UNASUL. Os sistemas de saúde da Bolívia e da Venezuela, que foram reformados nos anos 80 e 90, têm atualmente como meta a universalidade; contudo seus sistemas continuam mistos, com presença de um subsetor público, privado e previdenciário. Conclusões - Há um esforço conjunto do Brasil, da Bolívia, da Venezuela e da UNASUL para que a saúde de suas populações melhore em qualidade. Estes quatro atores, igualmente, utilizam o tema saúde como uma questão para cooperação e um propósito para integração. / Introduction The development of International Relations as a discipline embraces studies regarding regional integration, international cooperation, and more recently, health. The globalization process and a higher level of interaction amongst the countries culminated in the establishment of regional cooperation blocs. A representative example of this outcome in South America is the Union of South American Nations UNASUR. Cooperation in health via policy convergence within the blocs is possible, and this requires the knowledge of each countrys health system performance. Brazil, within its foreign policy tradition and its Global Health Diplomacy advocacy, seeks to cooperate with other UNASUR countries on health issues. Objectives To describe the work of International Organizations as well as their performance on health issues; to describe Brazilian cooperation in health; to identify contextual features of the health systems and of the international cooperation in health of Bolivia and Venezuela. Methods The methodological approach is qualitative, and both descriptive procedure and historical research were used. Description was used in the countries health systems scrutiny; and historical research was used to understand these systems reform process. Results International Organizations address health issues with different approaches, but they always relate it to the institutions main objective. WHO and World Bank are the organizations that the most deal with the topic. Brazil, in the 90s, started debating health in international conferences, and since the 2000 decade expands the countrys cooperation in health with African, Asian and Latin-American States. Moreover, Brazil encourages debates concerning health within MERCOSUR and UNASUR. The Bolivian and the Venezuelan health systems, which underwent a reform process during the 80s and the 90s decade, have currently as a goal universal access to health; however, their health systems are still of mixed types, with the presence of public, private and social security subsectors. Conclusion There is a joint effort of Brazil, Bolivia, Venezuela and UNASUR to accomplish an improvement in their populations health. These actors understand health both as a subject for cooperation and as a purpose for integration.

Introdução O desenvolvimento das Relações Internacionais como disciplina a fez abarcar estudos de integração regional, cooperação internacional e, mais recentemente, saúde. O processo de globalização e uma maior interação entre os países culminaram na criação de blocos regionais de cooperação, sendo um exemplo expoente na América do Sul a União das Nações Sul-Americanas - UNASUL. Cooperação em saúde global por meio de convergência política dentro dos blocos é possível, e para isso é necessário o conhecimento dos sistemas de saúde de cada país. O Brasil, dentro da tradição de sua política externa e da defesa da Diplomacia da Saúde Global, busca cooperar com os países da UNASUL em questões de saúde. Objetivos - Descrever a ação de Organizações Internacionais e sua atuação em saúde; descrever ações de cooperação em saúde do Brasil; identificar aspectos contextuais dos sistemas de saúde e da cooperação internacional em saúde da Bolívia e da Venezuela. Métodos O procedimento metodológico é qualitativo. Dentro dos métodos possíveis, utilizou-se o descritivo e a pesquisa histórica. A descrição foi utilizada nos dois países estudados para caracterizar seus sistemas de saúde, e a pesquisa histórica, para entender os processos de reforma desses sistemas. Resultados Organizações Internacionais trabalham de diferentes formas a saúde, mas sempre a relacionando com o objetivo principal da instituição. OMS e Banco Mundial são as organizações que mais lidam com o tema. O Brasil, na década de 90, começou a debater sobre saúde em conferências internacionais, e desde os anos 2000 amplia sua cooperação em saúde com países africanos, asiáticos e latinoamericanos. Também estimula o debate da saúde no MERCOSUL e na UNASUL. Os sistemas de saúde da Bolívia e da Venezuela, que foram reformados nos anos 80 e 90, têm atualmente como meta a universalidade; contudo seus sistemas continuam mistos, com presença de um subsetor público, privado e previdenciário. Conclusões - Há um esforço conjunto do Brasil, da Bolívia, da Venezuela e da UNASUL para que a saúde de suas populações melhore em qualidade. Estes quatro atores, igualmente, utilizam o tema saúde como uma questão para cooperação e um propósito para integração. / Introduction The development of International Relations as a discipline embraces studies regarding regional integration, international cooperation, and more recently, health. The globalization process and a higher level of interaction amongst the countries culminated in the establishment of regional cooperation blocs. A representative example of this outcome in South America is the Union of South American Nations UNASUR. Cooperation in health via policy convergence within the blocs is possible, and this requires the knowledge of each countrys health system performance. Brazil, within its foreign policy tradition and its Global Health Diplomacy advocacy, seeks to cooperate with other UNASUR countries on health issues. Objectives To describe the work of International Organizations as well as their performance on health issues; to describe Brazilian cooperation in health; to identify contextual features of the health systems and of the international cooperation in health of Bolivia and Venezuela. Methods The methodological approach is qualitative, and both descriptive procedure and historical research were used. Description was used in the countries health systems scrutiny; and historical research was used to understand these systems reform process. Results International Organizations address health issues with different approaches, but they always relate it to the institutions main objective. WHO and World Bank are the organizations that the most deal with the topic. Brazil, in the 90s, started debating health in international conferences, and since the 2000 decade expands the countrys cooperation in health with African, Asian and Latin-American States. Moreover, Brazil encourages debates concerning health within MERCOSUR and UNASUR. The Bolivian and the Venezuelan health systems, which underwent a reform process during the 80s and the 90s decade, have currently as a goal universal access to health; however, their health systems are still of mixed types, with the presence of public, private and social security subsectors. Conclusion There is a joint effort of Brazil, Bolivia, Venezuela and UNASUR to accomplish an improvement in their populations health. These actors understand health both as a subject for cooperation and as a purpose for integration.

INTRODUÇÃO: Promulgadas em 2000 as Metas de Desenvolvimento do Milênio destacam-se internacionalmente como importante política de cooperação para o desenvolvimento. Resultado do empenho da Organização das Nações Unidas caracteriza-se como uma tentativa de diminuir as disparidades sociais e econômicas no início do século XXI. Constituída por oito Metas, com prazo final para cumprimento em 2015. O objetivo 8.E da oitava Meta é definido como a cooperação com a indústria farmacêutica e visa, proporcionar o acesso a medicamentos essenciais com preços acessíveis nos países em desenvolvimento. OBJETIVOS: descreveu-se por meio das recomendações dos Relatórios da ONU o progresso do Objetivo 8.E e as políticas públicas de saúde no Brasil, Cuba e México. METODOLOGIA O estudo caracterizou-se por um estudo de caso descritivo e exploratório realizado por meio do estudo das recomendações governamentais estabelecidas nos relatórios da ONU relativos ao Objetivo 8.E, no período de 2000 a 2012, de documentos oficiais dos três países estudados e de revisão de literatura sobre o assunto. RESULTADOS: verificou-se que as propostas estabelecidas nos Relatórios da ONU para garantia do acesso a medicamentos apresentaram-se como políticas públicas nacionais executadas por meio dos sistemas de saúde dos três países estudados antes da promulgação das Metas do Milênio. CONSIDERAÇÕES FINAIS: em âmbito internacional As Metas do Milênio apresentam importância na cooperação para o desenvolvimento internacional observou-se, contudo, que os sistemas de saúde, existentes nos países estudados, apresentaram papel fundamental na política de acesso a medicamentos essenciais e, decorrentemente, no cumprimento das recomendações estabelecidas para os Estados-membros do Objetivo 8.E de forma independente do financiamento e estratégias de cooperação internacional / INTRODUCTION : Enacted in 2000, the Millennium Development Goals stand out internationally as an important development cooperation policy . Resulting of the commitment of the United Nations they are characterized as an attempt to reduce social and economic disparities in the XXI century . Composed of eight goals , with deadline for compliance in 2015 . The Target 8.E of the eighth Goal is defined as in cooperation with the pharmaceutical industry to provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries . OBJECTIVES : describe by means of the recommendations of the UN reports progress on the Target 8.E and public health policies in Brazil , Cuba and Mexico. METHODOLOGY The study was characterized by a descriptive case study and exploratory study conducted by the governmental recommendations set out in the UN reports relating to Target 8.E in the period from 2000 to 2012 , the official documents of the three countries studied and literature review on the subject . RESULTS : we found that the proposals set out in UN reports for ensuring access to medicines presented as national public policies were implemented by health systems of the three countries studied prior to the enactment of the Millennium Goals . CONCLUSION : internationally, the Millennium Goals have importance in development cooperation, however was noted that the health systems in the countries studied , displayed major role in access to essential medicines and so forth in compliance with the recommendations established for the Member States of the Objective 8.E independently of international financing and international cooperation strategies

This study aimed to provide an in-depth understanding of the way in which the macro, meso, and micro levels of the health care system affects nutrition care practices of family physicians (FPs) and nurse practitioners (NPs). It also examined how current practices compare to the clinical practice guidelines on the management and prevention of obesity. Three different types of team-based primary care settings were included: 2 Family Health Teams, 3 Community Health Centres and 1 Nurse Practitioner-Led Clinic. Within each type of setting, six to eight FPs and NPs were interviewed (for a total n= 20). Site-specific documents and government reports were also analyzed. Findings suggest that the team-based nature improves nutrition care due to the accessibility to dietitians and cost-free service. Electronic Medical Records was an important enabler for chronic disease management. Duration of medical visits and increasing prevalence of complex patients were barriers for addressing nutrition and weight. Despite the importance of addressing obesity in primary care, the topic was approached in terms of chronic disease management rather than prevention. FPs and NPs spared the dietitian on site for patients who have more severe chronic conditions. Nevertheless, the presence of a dietitian on site increased the likelihood of primary care providers bringing up the topic of nutrition. Addressing site-specific barriers could improve nutrition care practices for weight management and chronic disease prevention in the primary care setting.

Despite generous universal social health insurance with little formal restrictions of outpatient utilisation, Austria exhibits high rates of avoidable hospitalisations, which indicate the inefficient provision of primary healthcare and might be a consequence of the strict regulatory split between the Austrian inpatient and outpatient sector. This paper exploits the considerable regional variations in acute and chronic avoidable hospitalisations in Austria to investigate whether those inefficiencies in primary care are rather related to regional healthcare supply or to population characteristics. To explicitly account for inter-regional dependencies, spatial panel data methods are applied to a comprehensive administrative dataset of all hospitalisations from 2008 to 2013 in the 117 Austrian districts. The initial selection of relevant covariates is based on Bayesian model averaging. The results of the analysis show that supply-side variables, such as the number of general practitioners, are significantly associated with decreased chronic and acute avoidable hospitalisations, whereas characteristics of the regional population, such as the share of population with university education or long-term unemployed, are less relevant. Furthermore, the spatial error term indicates that there are significant spatial dependencies between unobserved characteristics, such as practice style or patients' utilization behaviour. Not accounting for those would result in omitted variable bias.