The thesis contains two chapters which address questions important both for the economic theory and applications. In Chapter I we show that inequalities are an important tool in the theory of production functions. Various notions of internal economies of scale can be equivalently expressed in terms of upper or lower bounds on production functions. In the problem of aggregation of efficiently allocated goods, if one is concerned with two-sided bounds as opposed to exact expressions, the aggregate production function can be derived from some general assumptions about production units subject to aggregation. The approach used does not require smoothness or convexity properties. In Chapter II we introduce a new forecasting techniques essential parts of which include using average high-order polynomial estimators for in-sample fit and low-order polynomial extension for out-of-sample fit. We provide some statements following the Gauss-Markov theorem format. The empirical part shows that algebraic polynomials treated in a proper way can perform very well in one-step-ahead prediction, especially in prediction of the direction of exchange rate movements. / Graduation date: 1995

The generalization from the univariate volatility model into a multivariate approach opens up a variety of modeling possibilities. This study aims to examine the performance of the two multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DCC, applied on ten years exchange rates data. Estimations and forecasts of the covariance matrix are made for the EUR/SEK and USD/SEK, whereby the  used in a practical application: 1-day and 10-day ahead historical simulated Value-at-Risk predictions for two theoretical portfolios, one equally weighted and one hedged, consisting of the two exchange rates. An univariate GARCH(1,1) approach is included in the Vale-at-Risk predictions to visualize the diversification effect in the portfolio. The conditional correlation forecasts are evaluated using three measures, OLS-regression, MAE and RMSE, based on an one year evaluation period of intraday data. The Value-at-Risk estimates are evaluated with the backtesting method introduced by Kupiec (1995). The results indicate that the BEKK model performs relatively better than the DCC model, and both these models perform better than the univariate GARCH(1,1) model.

Abstract The thesis is addressing the inventory valuation method called moving average and how this inventory method handles exchange rate differences. Intentions of the study is also to highlight differences and similarities between the two methods standard cost and moving average. This study fills an existing gap in science regarding pros and cons with the moving average method which made the topic very interesting.  It also has strong practical contribution regarding possible benefits and problems of relevance to companies that have intentions of implementing moving average on their inventory. The relationships between foreign exchange rate risks and inventory leads to the formulated research question for this thesis: What are the effects of currency movements in the cost of goods sold from an inventory valued at moving average method? Based on the technical problem statement was a constructive approach and interpretive standpoint considered best suited for the study. The gathering of data was conducted by using a qualitative research strategy. Three different topics are used in the theoretical frame; inventory valuation, exchange rates and hedging. The theoretical frame describes the accounting standards behind inventory valuation and exchange rates, as well as the theories addressed. Third and final topic hedging is about how to manage exchange rate exposures using different hedging techniques. The in-depth investigation was made for four business units with inventories valued according to the moving average method. Sampling was divided into two parts one for the companies and another choosing respondents. Selection of companies was a convenient sample within the non-probability samples used and the respondents were selected using a snowball sample. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine respondents. Both the empirical- and analysis chapter follows the same three topics as the theory structure and the empirical answers are divided into companies to facilitate the comparison. A short summary of the analysis is that moving average is most suitable for inventories with; high inventory turnovers, sales from shelf and stable costs. There is a need to identify input costs to manage exchange rate differences correctly. The final part about hedging showed that different exposures need different hedging techniques. Forward contracts were the most common financial instrument used for hedging transaction exposures. Input risks also identified as an economic risk is one of the hardest to manage. This study has showed that effects from exchange rate fluctuations affect the moving average inventory value different than other inventory models. The input currencies need to be identified and separated from the sales currencies otherwise there is a potential risk to make wrong decisions.

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth the irrelevant variables out of the nonparametric regression model, but also avoid the problem of loss of efficiency related to the traditional nonparametric frequency-based method and the problem of misspecification based on parametric model.

This paper uncovers the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates in seven countries by employing stable aggregate currency (SAC) for the period of 1973- 2004. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, time series methods, and directed acyclic graphs are applied to the daily data on stock market indices and exchange rates. The findings based on regression analysis show that exchange rate exposure of stock markets is statistically significant when stock indexes in SAC are used. Using an innovation accounting technique, we confirm that stock markets and exchange rates are correlated. Moreover, in most cases stock markets are more exogenous than foreign currency markets, which explains the relatively high percentage of uncertainty in the foreign currency market. Overall, SAC-based models give relatively more accurate and robust results than those which employ stock indices in local currencies, because it is more accurate to convert both variables into the same denominator.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2002. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2003. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references. Available also from UMI Company.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2000. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-107). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics & Economic History)) - Rhodes University, 2009. / A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters in Commerce (Financial Markets).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2000. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-107). Also available on the Internet.